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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • AsterickedAstericked Member Posts: 36
    I wasn't really sure where to post this, but was wondering what people would value this set at. I found it today at a yard sale. 


    M&M.jpg 132.1K
    Farmer_JohnJackad7pharmjodRsa33LEGOFan2
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    ^ what did you pay for it?

    Jackad7LEGOFan2
  • haakonohaakono Member Posts: 62
    ^^ very rare item: http://alpha.bricklink.com/pages/clone/catalogitem.page?S=swmp-1
  • AsterickedAstericked Member Posts: 36
    @ryjay $100.
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,779
    edited May 2016
    Dang that's a deal, compared to what you'd pay on Bricklink.
    LEGOFan2
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    @Astericked....are you looking to flip it or just curious about it's value?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,216
    Um, I don't think I would rely on the ONLY Bricklink listing as an accurate appraisal.

    There's a white Boba Fett keychain listing on eBay that hasn't sold in six months.  My guess is that the market isn't going to support the $899.99 minimum bid...
  • AsterickedAstericked Member Posts: 36
    I'm actually going to keep it for a while. It's an interesting piece, and goes well with my UCS Falcon. 
    pharmjodRsa33
  • Gtc29Gtc29 Member Posts: 2
    I've only been collecting for a few weeks.... When a set is discontinued, do we know it's about to happen? Or do we wake up to find the set no longer listed on the Lego Shop? 
  • TigerMothTigerMoth Member Posts: 2,343
    Gtc29 said:
    I've only been collecting for a few weeks.... When a set is discontinued, do we know it's about to happen? Or do we wake up to find the set no longer listed on the Lego Shop? 
    Most sets are around for a couple of years. A few aren't. There are also a few that hang around seemingly forever.

    Sometimes there are indications that a set may be on it's way out. Sometimes.

    However, there are surprises even for those who seen various sets come and go for years. You can have a line of sets released at intervals and the expectation is that they'll retire in the same order - and then the "wrong" one will suddenly disappear.

    If you want it, buy it. If you can't afford all that you want, people will give their opinions on which is likely to be retired first, but they are usually only that - opinions.
    catwranglermadforLEGORogerKirkCasper
  • haakonohaakono Member Posts: 62
    SumoLego said:
    Um, I don't think I would rely on the ONLY Bricklink listing as an accurate appraisal.
    I agree. The parts alone would run $300-$500 dollars, though, even though none of them are very rare. There are just so many of them! The one currently listed on bricklink includes the instructions, which some collectors might value. Without the instructions, used, I could see this going for $1000 or so. It would just take finding the right buyer. Great find, @Astericked. Enjoy it!
    SumoLego
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Thing about a set like that, is there is a lot going for it.  Rare, Star Wars, M&M's, LEGO. Could be collectible to a lot of different collectors. And, now it's 10+ years old.  
    pharmjod
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,757
    cloaked7 said:
    Thing about a set like that, is there is a lot going for it.  Rare, Star Wars, M&M's, LEGO. Could be collectible to a lot of different collectors. And, now it's 10+ years old.  
    Yeah, but it also looks like a pill to ship, and get to its destination, intact. Plus someone needs to have the space to display it (though it does not look huge). If you do not have the instructions then that could take away from the value big time as well.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I'm usually all about selling stuff like that to make a big profit, but that is one piece I'd probably hang on to and actually display it in my house somewhere. Especially at the price @Astericked paid.
    Jackad7
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Gtc29 said:
    I've only been collecting for a few weeks.... When a set is discontinued, do we know it's about to happen? Or do we wake up to find the set no longer listed on the Lego Shop? 
    This is how it works: 

    1. You make a list of sets you want.
    2. You come to this forum obsessively to try to predict when they might be discontinued.
    3. You keep waiting to purchase, because there is always a hint it won't retire. 
    4. Then, a couple weeks after it retires, you come back here and claim that you "missed out." 

    That is what I have learned after reading 30,000 posts on this thread. 
    :)

    (Sorry, I'm just kidding. Welcome to the hobby! Some sets are announced, others aren't. I agree with the advice above, to focus on sets you really love, and buy them when you can. This hobby can really eat up your bank account, so try to find a specific focus, otherwise you will end up with a closet full of unopened sets. )

    Jackad7SumoLegoBuriedinBricksprevereDonchuckp
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    1. Decide what you want to buy.
    2. Do you need it now? If so, buy it now.
    3a. Wait until 30% off if non-exclusive. Buy then.
    3b. Otherwise wait until a promo is on. Buy then.

    I've never missed out on a set doing that. I think the only set I would have missed out on if I had wanted it was the limited edition Crawler. Although knowledge of the 20,000 units of that would have meant buying on day 1.

    LegoPegasister2015
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,216
    ^ Until they release another 20,000 later.  Or if they tell people that there will be only one run (cough cough Exo-Suit! cough cough) and then produce a bazillion more based on consumer speculation...
    thebeermonkey
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    I'm fascinated with the aftermarket increase I'm seeing for the Star Wars sets that retired in the last year or two. I get the feeling more resellers have been diving into UCS and modular, and that the mid-level sets are being ignored.

    Not everything is going up, and it's only about 2x, but it's nice to see. Star Destroyer, AT-AT, A-Wing, Cantina. Clone Turbo, Corporate Alliance Droid Tank are doing well.

    Consequently, the really early 1999-2005 Star Wars sets are doing poorly. Obviously, all the rehashes are a huge factor there.
    pharmjodBrickDancerFollowsCloselyexciter1
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^I was surprised by this last week too, when looking for Anakin's Jedi Starfighter #75038 to match the new red one for Obi. It was only retired a few months ago and already at 2x RRP and relatively limited listings considering it was a small cheap set.
    FollowsCloselyJackad7VorpalRyu
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Member Posts: 555
    So would obi-wans be a good investment?
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    What's the general consensus on the SW7 sets?  I picked up several #75103 First Order Transporters at WalMart yesterday at half off.  Also a few Kylo Ren Command ships.  They are decent builds and are decent on the minifig side, but not sure if the following will be there even if there aren't any rehashes in the future.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,216
    It will be interesting to see if the Episode VII sets perform like the more recent OT sets, or will perform closer to Rebels, Clone Wars and other non-OT sets.
    VorpalRyuRonyarJackad7madforLEGO
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Member Posts: 555
    I feel more of the rebels route to be honest. I don't feel excited about these new sets like I do ot or even prequel sets.
    madforLEGO
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    If not rehashed, Kylo's shuttle may do well. Now, I haven't bought any yet. And I would like to say Poe's X-wing - but I have to think the churning of X-Wings isn't going to stop anytime soon. 
    brickupdate
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,779
    ^ Has that stopped previous X-Wings?
    FollowsClosely
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,536
    I think Kylo Ren will likely be around for awhile, a few more films at least. Has a lot of potential to grow into bigger/badder threat or be a redemption story. His shuttle will likely get redone with more accurate wing folding if it follows him to future films. That would really hurt this one.
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,779
    ^ When your as big a pushover as he is now, it's not hard to get badder...
    Farmer_JohnVorpalRyu
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    Once his balls have dropped he might get a deeper voice too. For a laugh, they should get David Prowse to voice-over his parts.
    pharmjodPitfall69VorpalRyuGothamConstructionCo
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Our Walmart currently has several SW Force Awakens sets for sale. I ended up only grabbing a copy of #75112 General Grievous for $17, which is about 50% off. Might be worth checking if you're in the market for SW sets.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    Perusing the Lego [email protected] site...

    I'm surprised the Simpson's House is still out. I figured it would be long gone by now.

    The Fairground Mixer is starting to get a little stale.

    The TB and SOH are well beyond stale; I feel for those with stacks in their closet. Kind of the rich man's Construct-a-Zurg.

    Waiting for the VW Camper to quietly go. Didn't realize it's not an Exclusive.

    Jurassic World is nearing it's EOL. I'm guessing by the end of summer.

    The rating for Assault on Hoth are terrible. I have a hunch that one won't be out more than two years. I'm guessing poor sales for AoH will lead to the EV staying out longer than expected.
    prevere
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,216
    Farmer_John said:
    Perusing the Lego [email protected] site...

    I'm surprised the Simpson's House is still out. I figured it would be long gone by now.

    I found it a bit odd at my local Lego Retail Store, that they had the Simpson's House, but no Kwik-E Marts.  Given than Target just irrationally clearanced Kwik-E Marts out, perhaps Apu is on his way to retirement first.  I suppose everyone that was going to get a Kwik-E Mart already ponied up - and the few new stragglers are going to purchase the family house? 

    Farmer_John said:
    The Fairground Mixer is starting to get a little stale.

    The TB and SOH are well beyond stale; I feel for those with stacks in their closet. Kind of the rich man's Construct-a-Zurg.

    Waiting for the VW Camper to quietly go. Didn't realize it's not an Exclusive.

    Agreed on all counts.  Interesting to see if there is going to be another Creator entry in the Fairground Theme.  Considering Friends is going heavy on the carnival theme, I am unsure if we are going to see another entry? 

    TB and SOH are zombies.  But I'm sure TLG has to get their money's worth out of the licensing for the SOH.  Although beyond stale, the TB serves its purpose for newer AFOLs that want to build something big and iconic.  Frankly, it makes me wonder why the Eiffel Tower didn't have an unnaturally long life.

    Farmer_John said:
    The rating for Assault on Hoth are terrible. I have a hunch that one won't be out more than two years. I'm guessing poor sales for AoH will lead to the EV staying out longer than expected.
    I hope you are correct on this one.  Even in the display case, the set is crappy.  UCS in this instance is "Leftovers Unceremoniously Crammed into this Set". 

    Where does it make sense for a Wampa to be in this set?  Did the two Snowtroopers follow the Wampa's blood trail to the shield generator?  I still am critical of set #8089 - why is there a Snowspeeder?  Would it be so difficult to have the cave, Wampa, Luke, translucent Obi-Wan, Han and a Tauntaun?

    I'm interested in some thoughts on whether a new VW Beetle will effect the value of the older (uglier) version. 
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    The Assault on Hoth will be interesting. It has some things going for it: It is a Star Wars OT set and it has a couple of minifigures exclusive to that particular set, but other than that, it is uninspiring. It reminds me of the B-Wing. I believe it sold poorly and that is why Lego clearanced them out for 50% off. At 50% off, the UCS B-Wing was a decent investment. Will the "AssOnHoth" go the same route? Seriously though, who thought this set was a good idea? Did TLG actually do any market research before they put out this set?
    Jackad7
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,216
    edited May 2016
    ^ Remember, most people buying sets are civilians.  They won't know any better that this is a ridiculous abomination.  I don't think it is a coincidence that the DS is gone just in time for a slightly less expensive but really expensive set to temporarily replace it.  It's a big set with apparently playability, lots of pieces and a Wampa.

    I get the same sense the market research group that thought a Winter Village re-tread was a better choice than an original set. 

    The Earth continues to spin, Lego makes gobs of money, we are all surprised that the Temple of Airjitsu and most recent modular is awesome, and perhaps there will be MORE anticipation for the next set.

    WV TRAIN!

    DS UPDATED RETREAD!!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited May 2016
    Yeah...the rating on the Lego [email protected] website is only 2 out of 5 stars for the AoH, which is pretty crummy. Who knows, it might end up being another UCS Super Star Destroyer set where nobody is really interested until it's gone.

    On a related note, it does look like the #10215 UCS Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter is doing better these days. I didn't expect it to ever go up.
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,485
    Farmer_John said:
    Yeah...the rating on the Lego [email protected] website is only 2 out of 5 stars for the AoH, which is pretty crummy. Who knows, it might end up being another UCS Super Star Destroyer set where nobody is really interested until it's gone.
    I always liked the Super Star Destroyer.

    I've always laughed at Assault on Hoth every time I see a picture of it.
    pharmjodPitfall69SumoLegoFollowsCloselymonstblitz
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    Farmer_John said:
    Yeah...the rating on the Lego [email protected] website is only 2 out of 5 stars for the AoH, which is pretty crummy. Who knows, it might end up being another UCS Super Star Destroyer set where nobody is really interested until it's gone.
    I really doubt it.  As Freud once said "Sometimes a crappy Lego set is just a crappy Lego set."
    pharmjodPitfall69maaaaaaaSumoLegomonstblitzFarmer_JohnOmastar
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Member Posts: 555
    If anything I feel it is more of a club city. With a really shoddy set and a few unique figures that are more detailed than they're previous versions. The only problem is the figures don't have the boba-fett popula
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,161
    samiam391 said:
    I always liked the Super Star Destroyer.

    I've always laughed at Assault on Hoth every time I see a picture of it.
    Me too. My SSD does take a well deserved spot in the mancave, but i'd rather have a UCS ISD if I had to choose (i'm sure the ISD will be the next UCS ship redo if they don't do a TFA variant).

    Assault on Hoth is a kids toy and not a display piece and no-one buys little Timmy a £600/$900 toy because it retired 2 years ago, can't see it doing well at all.
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Member Posts: 1,643
    To be fair to Lego, a full on UCS set such as the Slave 1 must take hours and hours of product design and market research and new moulds and all that jazz.  Where as AoH must have taken none at all - yeah it's phoning it in, but they only have to sell about 10 to break even (pay the box design guy) and everything after that is gravy!
    Jackad7catwranglermaaaaaaa
  • LyichirLyichir Member Posts: 1,009
    MattsWhat said:
    To be fair to Lego, a full on UCS set such as the Slave 1 must take hours and hours of product design and market research and new moulds and all that jazz.  Where as AoH must have taken none at all - yeah it's phoning it in, but they only have to sell about 10 to break even (pay the box design guy) and everything after that is gravy!
    Hours and hours? Try years, for D2C sets. And regardless of your opinion on Assault on Hoth's appeal, and how much of the revisited subject matter is really worth it, a huge amount of the actual build itself (pretty much everything apart from the Snowspeeder) is newly designed, so I doubt it took significantly less time to develop than any other UCS set. A new set design needs to be designed, tested for everything from appeal with kids to stability over time, instructions need to be made, graphic design for stickers and decorations needs to be completed... the only thing it doesn't have is new molds, but then again hardly any D2C sets do—the vast majority of them either rely on existing molds or use a few unreleased molds that are already in development for entirely different sets or themes.
    catwrangler
  • AanchirAanchir Member Posts: 3,014
    edited May 2016
    TheLoneTensor said:
    You forgot the decision to make it a UCS set or not.  Apparently the tool they use for that is a dart board.
    "The tool they use for that" is that ALL big Star Wars D2C sets have been considered Ultimate Collector's Series ever since they introduced the new UCS badge and box design with #75059 Sandcrawler. People complained about it then, too. I don't know why people are acting as if this is a new or confusing development. Before 2014, "Ultimate Collector Series" didn't have a set-in-stone, unambiguous meaning. Ever since 2014, like it or not, it does, and both the Sandcrawler and Assault on Hoth qualify.

    If #10123 Cloud City were released today, it'd be branded as UCS, despite being about as disjointed as Assault on Hoth. So would #10131 (a LITERAL 4-in-1 set) #10144, #10178, #10195, #10198, and #10236. I never hear anybody raising a stink over these taking up "LEGO Exclusive" slots, but despite not being branded on the boxes as UCS, they did. From 2000 to 2010 there were two LEGO Exclusive Star Wars sets per year, same as we're getting this year, even though only around half of those are considered "UCS" by fans (and some of those that ARE considered UCS weren't even branded as such). Since then it's bounced between one and two LEGO Exclusive Star Wars sets per year.

    Other than that, the only thing that has changed about LEGO Exclusive Star Wars sets from the old days is that the branding on the boxes has been made more consistent. And I guess until fans get used to that it's going to mean unrealistic expectations for any such set that isn't designed purely as a monolithic display piece.
    SprinkleOtterMattsWhatVorpalRyu
  • richoricho Member Posts: 3,830
    edited May 2016
    Farmer_John said:
    Yeah...the rating on the Lego [email protected] website is only 2 out of 5 stars for the AoH, which is pretty crummy. Who knows, it might end up being another UCS Super Star Destroyer set where nobody is really interested until it's gone.

    On a related note, it does look like the #10215 UCS Obi-Wan Jedi Starfighter is doing better these days. I didn't expect it to ever go up.
    The super star destroyer's problem is that it's not exactly easy to display. A big free space and an understanding wife are prerequisites.

    Assault on Hoth I don't think is something that will do well simply because there have been so many better small and mid sized Hoth sets (7879 for example) and it will be done again, better.
    Jackad7VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,216
    TheLoneTensor said:
    You forgot the decision to make it a UCS set or not.  Apparently the tool they use for that is a dart board.
    If you hit the dartboard, it adds $65.00 to the purchase price.
    Jackad7VorpalRyu
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    Ahhhh @TheLoneTensor your skill with the written word is like Monet with the brush!
    pharmjodVorpalRyuSumoLegoRainstorm26TheLoneTensorchuckpsnowhitieOmastar
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