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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^Sshh don't tell anyone, people thinking this is what husbands are for is the only thing we have!
    Also, it's clearly a fake Alderaan set - why would it be 9-14 age set when no assembly is required? 
    BumblepantsAmanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    ^ Because there are no Duplo or Juniors pieces.
    Amanda1983
  • LyichirLyichir United StatesMember Posts: 1,005
    SumoLego said:
    ^ Because there are no Duplo or Juniors pieces.
    That'd still peg the age range at 5+ for the lowest boundary. ;)
    SumoLegoAmanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    ^ Maybe there are loads of clear plastic 'connector' pieces between the various bits of Alderaan that require precision building...
    Amanda1983
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^nah, you're all wrong, it's because it has stickers.  Loads of stickers.
    SumoLegoAmanda1983
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,800
    edited April 2016
    new UCS packaging for the Alderaan set. That's an inner box with bags 9 thru 14. Full set has 100 bags. Many random bags from Star Wars sets in each complete Alderaan set...
    Amanda1983
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 2,361
    @MattsWhat
    That would be the final UCS insult, all the pieces being tiles and slopes and all the studs on show actually just being stickers.
    Amanda1983
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    datsunrobbie said:
    new UCS packaging for the Alderaan set. That's an inner box with bags 9 thru 14. Full set has 100 bags. Many random bags from Star Wars sets in each complete Alderaan set...
    And think of the huge number of monochrome (well, plain black) minifigures you'd get.
    Amanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    ^ Just hands and mis-matched leg pieces.
    Farmer_JohnAmanda1983
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    **face palm**
    SumoLegoAmanda1983
  • Legopassion8Legopassion8 North CarolinaMember Posts: 1,181
    Elizabeth Swann Minifigures

    I want one so they'll probably go up to $40/$50. Just enough for my wife to say NO !
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Speaking of POTC - I wonder if we'll get some new sets with next movie (May '17 release).
    Jackad7Amanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    ^ I have no doubt that there will be a Scooby-Doo variety of sets.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,825
    599 pages.  Wow!!
    Amanda1983
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^Someone better make the 30,000th post a good one. No pressure. 
    catwranglerAmanda1983
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,825
    CupIsHalfEmpty said:
    So, when's the death star retiring?
    That was the OPs prediction on Page 1.  :)
    Farmer_John said:
    Here are my predictions for the end of this year: SW Hoth Cave Fire Brigade SSW Battle of Endor SW Republican Dropship SW Tantative IV All Toy Story Sets Emerald Night Winter Village Toy Shop And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.
    brickupdateRainstorm26prevereJackad7Amanda1983
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    prevere said:
    ^Speaking of POTC - I wonder if we'll get some new sets with next movie (May '17 release).
    Probably, there were some lovely sets and figures last time.
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,778
    Will the value of Hank Pim ever drop? I don't know if he's supposed to be in CW.
    Will Ant-Man Final Battle drop, for that matter?
    Amanda1983
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,712

    SprinkleOtter said:
    Will the value of Hank Pim ever drop? I don't know if he's supposed to be in CW.
    Will Ant-Man Final Battle drop, for that matter?
    Ant man is in CW but I'm guessing the other characters in the set are not. In any case, I doubt those characters show up in a set anytime soon, or at least until a possible Ant Man 2 comes out.
    Amanda1983
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    What are peoples' thoughts on the Super Heroes & Disney Princesses branded Duplo sets? The last Big W sale saw someone loading up on them, hadn't really considered them as likely to get a decent return, but clearly them do. Anyone on here grabbing any these to stash away?
    Amanda1983
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,456
    @VorpalRyu - I've stashed a couple away for if I have kids in the future, but in terms of resale I suspect they are too niche. I did get one of the batman sets for myself for the figures, but beyond that Duplo already comes at a premium, I don't think there are many who would pay aftermarket prices ontop of that.
    Amanda1983
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    @Shib, just looking at eBay at the moment, some are going for just under double their original RPP, scarily, they are moving at those prices...
    Amanda1983
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Depending on how long Lego keeps making duplo versions of those characters I could see them all going for a fair penny eventually. Parents that want to introduce their kids to LEGO usually start somewhere and when you throw superheroes and Disney princesses In the mix there is no telling what might happen. I have done well with duplo in the past. I don't usually go heavy with it though.
    Amanda1983
  • msandersmsanders Member Posts: 1,017
    I have a prediction on a soon to be retiring set - 'Assault (insult) on Hoth'  #75098
    Jackad7Amanda1983
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 555
    Why is the batman jokers suprise set as much as the ucs tumbler?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^If you're talking about #7888, then the reason is that it's a classic. It is the first Tumbler set released by Lego. I've BL'd a few of these sets because I like it so much. There are a few pieces in this set that a nigh impossible to find anymore though.
    prevereJackad7Amanda1983
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    pharmjod said:
    Depending on how long Lego keeps making duplo versions of those characters I could see them all going for a fair penny eventually. Parents that want to introduce their kids to LEGO usually start somewhere and when you throw superheroes and Disney princesses In the mix there is no telling what might happen. I have done well with duplo in the past. I don't usually go heavy with it though.
    Can't see ourselves making Duplo a big part of our strategy, probably just grab the occasional extra box of the Super Heroes or Disney sets we do buy. I get what you mean about SH & Disney, apart from what I know I've spent in the past on SH stuff (@xiahna still brings up what I paid for the SDCC Jean Grey whenever I um & ar about a Lego purchase), I've seen friends drop two to three times the original RRP to get stuff that was been retired, heck one of my wife's friends that is massively into Disney has paid some pretty crazy prices for some of the stuff in her collection.
    Amanda1983
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Farmer_John said:
    ^If you're talking about #7888, then the reason is that it's a classic. It is the first Tumbler set released by Lego. I've BL'd a few of these sets because I like it so much. There are a few pieces in this set that a nigh impossible to find anymore though.
    ^What's so interesting about this set - is that IT IS STILL the only "regular-sized and playable" black Tumbler LEGO has produced. You can make an argument of all the Super Hero vehicles through the years, that the Christopher Nolan Tumbler could be the #1 fan favorite. Yet, even with constant Batman set churning year-after-year, it's a bit surprising this has yet to be re-done.

    And yes, you can rebuild the tan Tumbler from #76001 into black, but it's really small and a bit weak.
    brumeyJackad7Farmer_John
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 555
    edited April 2016
    Oh ok, well I know want one, thanks guys >:(

    While we're on the topic of the best batman vehicle I pulled the trigger on a UCS version about a week ago for 250. I was under the impression I was getting an already opened and built version (he said it would come in bags) as that's what the pictures showed. Unfortunately it came sealed and being the diehard animal lover I am (not really) I have sat down three times to try and open it but don't have the heart to hurt those seals. Why, I have no idea, because if it came opened I would have jumped right into building it.
    Amanda1983
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited April 2016
    Jackad7 said:
    Oh ok, well I know want one, thanks guys >:(

    While we're on the topic of the best batman vehicle I pulled the trigger on a UCS version about a week ago for 250. I was under the impression I was getting an already opened and built version (he said it would come in bags) as that's what the pictures showed. Unfortunately it came sealed and being the diehard animal lover I am (not really) I have sat down three times to try and open it but don't have the heart to hurt those seals. Why, I have no idea, because if it came opened I would have jumped right into building it.
    Well...I think it's certainly going to go up since it is unlikely that TLG ever releases another Tumbler again (unless it's like the one in #76001 mentioned by @prevere above). The good news is that you now own it and you can do whatever you want with it (leave it sealed or build it).

    But this does bring up an interested point from a reseller's perspective. I too have sets that I want to build, yet it's hard to cut those seals knowing that that it'll depreciate the value of the set (sometimes substantially). This is the dividing line between a true reseller and a true Lego aficionado. I think most are in the middle somewhere (I know I am), tending to open some while leaving others sealed for a future day.

    That said, the UCS Tumbler is just an awesome set and I don't think I could not open it. You could also bag the two minifigures (Batman and Joker) that come with it and sell them off (possibly $50 for both?) to help fund the original purchase. (Personally I put the two minifigures in my display case as I collect Joker minifigures.)

    Just my thoughts...
    Jackad7Rsa33Amanda1983
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,778
    Jackad7 said:
    Oh ok, well I know want one, thanks guys >:(

    While we're on the topic of the best batman vehicle I pulled the trigger on a UCS version about a week ago for 250. I was under the impression I was getting an already opened and built version (he said it would come in bags) as that's what the pictures showed. Unfortunately it came sealed and being the diehard animal lover I am (not really) I have sat down three times to try and open it but don't have the heart to hurt those seals. Why, I have no idea, because if it came opened I would have jumped right into building it.
    The price would have to increase substantially for you to make any money off of selling that one and buying another- just open it, in my opinion.
    Jackad7Amanda1983
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,010
    Farmer_John said:
    Jackad7 said:
    Oh ok, well I know want one, thanks guys >:(

    While we're on the topic of the best batman vehicle I pulled the trigger on a UCS version about a week ago for 250. I was under the impression I was getting an already opened and built version (he said it would come in bags) as that's what the pictures showed. Unfortunately it came sealed and being the diehard animal lover I am (not really) I have sat down three times to try and open it but don't have the heart to hurt those seals. Why, I have no idea, because if it came opened I would have jumped right into building it.
    Well...I think it's certainly going to go up since it is unlikely that TLG ever releases another Tumbler again (unless it's like the one in #76001 mentioned by @prevere above). The good news is that you now own it and you can do whatever you want with it (leave it sealed or build it).

    But this does bring up an interested point from a reseller's perspective. I too have sets that I want to build, yet it's hard to cut those seals knowing that that it'll depreciate the value of the set (sometimes substantially). This is the dividing line between a true reseller and a true Lego aficionado. I think most are in the middle somewhere (I know I am), tending to open some while leaving others sealed for a future day.

    That said, the UCS Tumbler is just an awesome set and I don't think I could not open it. You could also bag the two minifigures (Batman and Joker) that come with it and sell them off (possibly $50 for both?) to help fund the original purchase. (Personally I put the two minifigures in my display case as I collect Joker minifigures.)

    Just my thoughts...
    I am really stuggling with my UCS MF.  It is a lot of money to cut those seals.  I am hoping that my recent purchase of #75105 will help sooth the desire to cut those seals.
    Rsa33Amanda1983
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,778
    ^ Then don't cut them- sell it, buy a used, and pocket a boatload of cash...
    FollowsCloselywagnerml2madforLEGOFarmer_JohnRsa33prevereGothamConstructionCoAmanda1983Sethro3
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^I second that motion.
    Rsa33
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Haymarket, VAMember Posts: 1,267
    Its a great build, but not worth 4K+, not even close! I sold all of mine and I have no regrets.
    VorpalRyupharmjodBumblepantsRsa33Amanda1983
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 653
    FollowsClosely said:
    Its a great build, but not worth 4K+, not even close! I sold all of mine and I have no regrets.
    But that's not factoring future value.  It's a great topic, and I see both sides of it.  As someone who paid recent market price for it, there's no way I'm touching the seals.  If I had been lucky enough to not be in dark ages and buy multiples at retail I'd have no regrets whatsoever breaking one open.

    Agree with BrickDancer on his thoughts of idolizing money.  At the same time when you factor in potential future value of it, it could be a sizable retirement asset.
    Amanda1983
  • Steve_J_OMSteve_J_OM IrelandMember Posts: 993
    Farmer_John said:
    ^If you're talking about #7888, then the reason is that it's a classic. It is the first Tumbler set released by Lego. I've BL'd a few of these sets because I like it so much. There are a few pieces in this set that a nigh impossible to find anymore though.
    Do you think there is much value in a bricklinked version of the Tumbler on its own? Did it a few years ago before the UCS was announced, and now it feels a bit surplus to requirements. 
    Amanda1983
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,712
    edited April 2016
    BrickDancer said:
    ^^^Money doesn't buy happiness. Crack the seals and a bottle of champagne to celebrate the moment like a birthday, promotion, raise/bonus, wedding, etc.

    Life is too short to waste it idolizing money.
    'Idolizing money' is one thing, but if it is a large amount of cash for a set with multiple incarnations (even if they are less detailed), the specter of it being redone as a UCS, and you can clear 3K on it? IMO, Do it.

    I get the collecting bug believe me, among having a crap load of sets to be opened (no place to display them... yet), I have a Sealed box Cafe Corner that I am wrestling with selling or not, but I did sell my Grand Carousel as I can see that one being redone soon, even if a lesser detail set, and I really have no place to put it even if I did want to keep it, and build it, as it has a huge 'footprint'. I would rather get my hands on a Carousel that is 32x32 plate, not a 48x48 plate.

    In the end, it is up to the person who owns it. If they feel that at some point they will build it then IMO keep it. If they are going to hold on to it forever sealed (even though they have the space to display it) then I say sell it, How good of a set it if it sits in its box forever?
    If they are going to do that, I would suggest the following: Take a picture of it, frame the pic on their wall (either for remembrance or to proof you once owned one), and sell the real one.

    monstblitz said:
    FollowsClosely said:
    Its a great build, but not worth 4K+, not even close! I sold all of mine and I have no regrets.
    But that's not factoring future value.  It's a great topic, and I see both sides of it.  As someone who paid recent market price for it, there's no way I'm touching the seals.  If I had been lucky enough to not be in dark ages and buy multiples at retail I'd have no regrets whatsoever breaking one open.

    Agree with BrickDancer on his thoughts of idolizing money.  At the same time when you factor in potential future value of it, it could be a sizable retirement asset.

    Ok, but then where do you draw the line? 10 year later, 20, 50? When you retire... ok, but what if it is still rising? Also people are assuming LEGO never redoes the UCS set.Or that something does not happen to the box during that time. The seals do not naturally fail due to age..etc etc.
    FollowsCloselycatwranglerAmanda1983
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 653

    monstblitz said:
    FollowsClosely said:
    Its a great build, but not worth 4K+, not even close! I sold all of mine and I have no regrets.
    But that's not factoring future value.  It's a great topic, and I see both sides of it.  As someone who paid recent market price for it, there's no way I'm touching the seals.  If I had been lucky enough to not be in dark ages and buy multiples at retail I'd have no regrets whatsoever breaking one open.

    Agree with BrickDancer on his thoughts of idolizing money.  At the same time when you factor in potential future value of it, it could be a sizable retirement asset.

    Ok, but then where do you draw the line? 10 year later, 20, 50? When you retire... ok, but what if it is still rising? Also people are assuming LEGO never redoes the UCS set.Or that something does not happen to the box during that time. The seals do not naturally fail due to age..etc etc.
    Depends on what the future brings.  Personally I don't plan on doing anything with it until I retire.  And then, I would only sell if it would be a game changer.  A fancy fishing boat?  A down payment on a vacation home? 

    If the value was still rising rapidly, I'd also consider leaving it to my children.  But life is gonna happen, and plans have to be flexible. 
    Jackad7Amanda1983
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited April 2016
    Steve_J_OM said:
    Farmer_John said:
    ^If you're talking about #7888, then the reason is that it's a classic. It is the first Tumbler set released by Lego. I've BL'd a few of these sets because I like it so much. There are a few pieces in this set that a nigh impossible to find anymore though.
    Do you think there is much value in a bricklinked version of the Tumbler on its own? Did it a few years ago before the UCS was announced, and now it feels a bit surplus to requirements. 
    To be clear, the only part of #7888 that I BL'd was the Tumbler itself. I did pick up a completed Joker truck on eBay several years ago (probably also BL'd), but that was a gift for my son to go with his BL'd Tumbler.

    The value of a BL'd version probably doesn't come close to the value of one with the box (even if the seals are cut). The best you can hope for is to add all the ancillary components to the deal (actual instructions, minifigures, and yes...even the stickers). The good news is that all the ancillary components I've mentioned can easily be found (at least they were for me) through BL or eBay. Still, I would guess a BL'd #7888 Tumbler vs. an opened complete #7888 (with the Joker truck, minifigs, etc.) are probably more than $150 in difference (perhaps >$200).

    It may (some day) be more profitable to bundle and sell all your Tumblers in a single sale, tossing in the one from #76001 as well (perhaps even a Bat-Pod too). A "completist" might jump at the opportunity to get them all in one swoop.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Haymarket, VAMember Posts: 1,267
    Not sure how old you are @monstblitz, but holding on to this set for another 20+ years has more setbacks than rearwards in my perspective.
    • I would be shocked if this set is not redone in the next 5 years. The price may not plummet, but demand will.
    • Like @madforLEGO says: seals do naturally fail. The entire investment is aging.
    • It could get damaged/destroyed
    • Let's assume it doubles over the next 10 years, then doubles again over the following 10 (doubtful). How many buyers will there be for a 16K set.

    P.S. I am located 20 miles west of you, out in Haymarket.



    VortexVorpalRyumadforLEGOAmanda1983
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    In addition, you assume that the market for Lego will continue to be viable.  While the collectors market will always be there, in order for the price to continue to rise, there needs to be more and more investors/collectors looking to purchase copies and have the disposable income to continue to pay a higher and higher price for an unregulated investment....in 20 years I believe the market will be significantly different.
    pharmjodVorpalRyuAmanda1983
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 2,361
    You could always bricklink one, just to build it, also, by the ships definition of a modified YT1300 , it doesn't necessarily have to be all original.
    wagnerml2
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,523
    I cannot see the UCS MF being worth $8K in three years. Whereas I can see $4K worth of current Lego sets being worth $8K in three years. Just because some investments continue to go up doesn't mean they are worth holding.
    pharmjodVorpalRyuFollowsCloselymadforLEGOdougtsAmanda1983
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    CCC said:
    I cannot see the UCS MF being worth $8K in three years. Whereas I can see $4K worth of current Lego sets being worth $8K in three years. Just because some investments continue to go up doesn't mean they are worth holding.

    I think this is spot on. Though, I also never would have predicted UCS MF would be $4k either so there is that. If I were looking to "invest" in $4k worth of LEGO at present, it would certainly not be in 1 set.
    VorpalRyuAmanda1983
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 653
    A lot of "ifs" being tossed around.  A nuclear holocaust could happen and then we will all be out of luck.  Basically I have the item very well stored, so I'm not worried about that.  If my set ages, others will as well, so all else equal - value should rise.  Who knows what happens to it in 20 years, but I'm going on basic supply and demand principles.  They might re-release, but I have to believe any re release will be different enough to where value will not plummet. 

    Furthermore, I don't have any choice.  It doesn't make any sense for me to sell this for what I paid, or worse, a loss.  I have a much different baseline than most of you who are discussing options for the set.  If you paid retail for it, yes, an argument can be made for either selling it now or opening and building it.  If you paid current market, the only rational thing to do is hold on to it and hope it continues the upward trend.  Unless you're made of money and can afford to pay 4K + for something to build.  (P.S. - I'm not.)

    Of course history might prove this investment I made to be a mistake.  But I knew the worst case scenarios when I went into it and was comfortable with the risk.
    Jackad7Amanda1983
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    This argument has been going on since Christ was a corporal. Any re release of a UCS MF will have an effect on the value, but how much? I have seen the re release of the WV Toy Shop seriously impact the value of the original and the release of the Chicken Suit Guy(albeit a new mold) is making the value of the CMF's plummet. Although, there is a huge difference between comparing the UCS MF to the WV Toy Shop or Chicken Suit Guy. 
    SumoLegoAmanda1983
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