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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • DonDon San DiegoMember Posts: 63
    @madforLEGO @Bumblepants  @SumoLego Thanks - I'll give that a whirl! I'm okay with waiting a while to get one, I am trying to avoid either paying a premium now if it comes back into stock, or waiting fruitlessly for it to come back into stock and then having to pay an even bigger premium in the future. :-)
  • DonDon San DiegoMember Posts: 63

    Dtrimpi87 said:
    It's a gamble. It could be just temporarily out of stock or it could be on it's way to being gone for good. No one knows for sure but Lego. Since it is the only modular not in the new catalog I personally would lean on the side of it being gone for good.
    Yeah, hoping to get some feel from the longer-term lego fans as to just what that has meant in the past. You are making me worry a bit!  :-)
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    There are some folks that like to trade as well.  And help people out that perhaps miss an item here or there...  

    (That's hint #2, if you were looking for a hint.)
    wagnerml2kiki180703
  • MrJ_NYMrJ_NY A flick missle away from Brickagara FallsMember Posts: 592
    edited March 2016
    Just like they have closed caption for the hearing impaired,for those who can't read between the lines,I heard there's a guy...name is LumoSego (I think it translates to Extra Petshops in spanish) or something like that who is rumored to have at least two extra PetShops.I hear he's reasonable to deal with,if you can track him down.
    wagnerml2kiki180703
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @Don  I have also had luck in the past calling Brick and Mortar stores in the high tourist areas, like the Downtown Disney stores.  They will ship from that location and they sometimes have larger sets when they are OOS online because tourists don't want to have to transport them home.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    ^ I was once able to get my local Lego Store to ship a Ewok Village when I ordered over the phone.
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    edited March 2016
    Target.com has Pet Shop In Stock Now

  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    As for certain Lego not being available at a discount: Kaufhof (large department store and online retailer in Germany) currently has all toys at 15 percent discount if you buy three or more articles, plus another 15 percent if you use a certain add-on discount code. Some articles are reduced to begin with. All in all there are possible discounts of around 30 percent (to 40 percent on already reduced articles).
    Actually, that was only possible within the first half a day or so, until Kaufhof noticed their mistake.

    You only have 1 field to enter a discount code in the checkout, so instead of auto-applying the discount and you being able to add a second discount code (be that payback or similar), they changed it so you can only apply one code, and to get the 15% off you now have to add a code, rather than it being auto-applied.

    I placed 2 orders that morning with roughly 30% off. When I decided I may get a couple of smaller sets in the afternoon, they had already changed their policy. Luckily they didn't cancel my orders.
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    I was going to say, Pet Shop has been coming in and out of stock several times in the past 24 hours at Target and Toys R Us.  You should be able to get one if you keep an eye on them.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    edited March 2016
    exciter1 said:
    I was going to say, Pet Shop has been coming in and out of stock several times in the past 24 hours at Target and Toys R Us.  You should be able to get one if you keep an eye on them.
    But are these going because they are gone for good at [email protected] (and the status 'temporarily out of stock' does not mean this-see Exo suit and the Death Star) or is it more likely panic buying by speculators and rumor mills causing the shortages as it is not like you can 'price match' VIP points.

    If that is the case I'm guessing retailers hope that LEGO [email protected] keeps reporting expensive sets are 'temporarily out of stock'
    MrJ_NY
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    or is it more likely panic buying by speculators and rumor mills causing the shortages as it is not like you can 'price match' VIP points.

    I think this phase is pretty much over.  It's the new speculators panic buying, but it should be on it's last leg. 
    madforLEGOkiki180703MrJ_NY
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    edited March 2016
    exciter1 said:
    or is it more likely panic buying by speculators and rumor mills causing the shortages as it is not like you can 'price match' VIP points.

    I think this phase is pretty much over.  It's the new speculators panic buying, but it should be on it's last leg. 
    Its close, but if the Box changed (as much as I loathe using that as a possible reason for it sticking around another year), the rumor about having the sets sold exclusively through LEGO for their last production year are true, and -more importantly the set is still around after the Christmas (when sets typically sell out for good) then its last leg will likely be closer to 'Winter', not 'Summer', this year IMO.
    That said, the usual warning applies: If you want a PS, get it sooner than later.
    goshe7exciter1kiki180703
  • DonDon San DiegoMember Posts: 63
    Lego online store ([email protected] if I'm starting to absorb the lingo) had Pet Shop in stock a few minutes ago, mine is on order!  :-)

    Thanks to everyone for the advice, I'm glad I held off and didn't buy one from a speculator for a higher price!
    kiki180703SumoLegoAmanda1983
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    A few quick comments on the Classic Batman Batcave set #76052 as it compares to another classic Batman-related set: The UCS Tumbler #76023.

    First, I really like both sets and as an AFOL I appreciate Lego releasing them. Both show that Lego is interested in providing fun sets for older collectors. The Batcave minifigures are especially fun for those of us who remember the characters from the old TV series.

    That said, the Batcave set costs 35% more than the Tumbler and is generally less familiar than the Tumbler to the average person. I seem to remember there being much more excitement surrounding the release of the UCS Tumbler than there was with the release of the Classic Batcave. The Batcave's reviews to date at [email protected] are not nearly as good as those given to the UCS Tumbler. The Tumbler build is also more interesting and enjoyable for those able to afford these sorts of sets.

    Lego brilliantly had the Bat-Pod giveaway sweepstakes during the middle of the UCS Tumbler run, which likely generated more sales and interest in the Tumbler. I don't see there being a similar marketing opportunity for the Classic Batcave set, other than the free Mr. Freeze polybag giveaway in April of this year.

    As mentioned above, the Batcave and Tumbler have some great minifigures, although the Batcave has 7 more than the Tumbler. The Batcave is certainly more "playable" than the Tumbler, and I can see it being more fun for the younger crowd. Both are specifically based on either the TV shows or movies, with the Batcave being from the 1960s and the Tumbler from the 2000s. Those of us who have seen and enjoyed the old Adam West Batman TV series can really appreciate what Lego has done here. Those who are less familiar with the old Batman TV series may be less inspired to purchase such an expensive set.

    Conclusion: To me, the new Batcave is an "only purchase during double VIP points when TLG is providing a nice extra promotional set...or not" sort of set for most people; the Tumbler was a "purchase no matter what" sort of set. I'm betting the new Classic Batcave will be out less time than the UCS Tumbler #76023. The UCS Tumbler was available to VIP members for approximately 16-17 months; however, there was a gap between Sep 2014 and Nov 2014 where it wasn't available. So the Tumbler's actual availability was only about 14 months. I'm expecting the new Classic Batcave to be gone by next spring at the latest...
    tallblocktoocatwranglerbandit778BrickDancerkiki180703Amanda1983
  • tallblocktootallblocktoo CanadaMember Posts: 497
    Re the Batcave I was curious how well its done so far and just from word of mouth locally here anyways pre  VIP it certainly was not selling well at all.  As mentioned above it also gets very mixed reviews as opposed to many sets which get overwhelmingly positive reviews on the Lego [email protected] site. 
    Amanda1983
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,917
    I'm not surprised it hasn't sold that when on initial release. I imagine most people knew double VIP points were coming, and with the rumours about the Mr Freeze poly possibly coming with it at a later date there seems little point in getting it on day one (apart from if you really wanted to be in the early builders club or get an early review on youtube, although that privilege goes to the ones that get them for free for reviews).
    SumoLegokiki180703YodaliciousAmanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    There are always early adopters and some number of civilians that buy new stuff by happenstance.

    That said, I am inclined to agree that this will not have a long  --cough cough DS... Tower Bridge cough cough--  period of availabilty.

    I think an equally relevant question is how long the Helicarrier will hang around.  (This is where knowing available inventory would be helpful to anticipate a likely path for future production.)

    Whether we have an Exo-Suit situation or a Mars Curiosity Rover situation...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^To your point, I wonder if the Helicarrier will have a cameo in the Captain America Civil War movie coming out in early May. Marvel movies probably do drive some interest in these sorts of sets. If so, then perhaps TLG leaves it alone well into the fall. If not, then it may be gone well before the end of summer (if not sooner).

    But I agree...if someone wants #76042, then this is probably the best time to pick one up (double VIP points).
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    ^ I was thinking the same thing with the Tumbler, with an upcoming Batman movie, but had the opposite effect!
  • JayoheazyJayoheazy SF Bay AreaMember Posts: 14
    I just can't seem to like the Hellicarrier for some reason. I love the movies and even the idea but I guess at $349 I'm really turned off. I think a UCS Stark Tower would have been much more appealing
    catwranglerAmanda1983
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 555
    Just curious, about how long is it until the UCS Slave I is retired? I want one but I don't know how long to wait. Really do I have until next May the 4th or should I pick it up this year?
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 793
    It's only a year old. It should be good for another couple of years I would think.
    Jackad7
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Good grief...I've been watching the secondary value of the Silver Centurion polybag #5002946 set. It started at about $40, dipped to just under $25, and is nearly back to $40...and climbing. I thought it would've behaved more like the Iron Patriot polybag set #30168, but I think the SC set is going to be north of $50 by years end.

    My son collects Iron Man minifigs and has all except the NYCC Iron Man and the SC. He probably missed his chance to get the SC (if $25 is considered reasonable).
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    I get the sense that most of the Gamestops were shorted these polybags.

    Perhaps they will materialize somewhere as another promotion?
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    The Gamestops near me only received enough polys for paid pre-orders.  I only got two (sold the game).  I traded/sold my extra, banking that there will be some other additional release in the future.  It simply seems like a far too limited release of a well-known character.

    I wonder how much the SC availability has affected the number of pre-orders for the Deluxe Edition of TFA (for Finn figure).  Seems it would help drive up the demand.  But the availability from multiple retailers would act to temper that demand.  
    Amanda1983
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 822
    I'd think availability will be similar to Iron Patriot, considering they were both promos for a video game that has since passed their release date. Why would they release it again another time?

    Also, as neat as the figure is, it does stand out against all of the other Iron Man armors, but not necessarily in a good way. Considering all of the rest look very similar, but now this one has different armor piece instead of only torso printing AND it has side printing. It looks a bit different. Especially with Civil War having new armors that will resemble the old style.
    madforLEGOFarmer_Johnkiki180703Amanda1983
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    Sethro3 said:
    I'd think availability will be similar to Iron Patriot, considering they were both promos for a video game that has since passed their release date. Why would they release it again another time?

    Also, as neat as the figure is, it does stand out against all of the other Iron Man armors, but not necessarily in a good way. Considering all of the rest look very similar, but now this one has different armor piece instead of only torso printing AND it has side printing. It looks a bit different. Especially with Civil War having new armors that will resemble the old style.
    Yeah, not really sure why its price is going up past what Iron Patriot is, but then again I think many more folks got an Iron Patriot as in the US it was a Walmart giveaway, not a GS which I think has inherently bad supply lines for their promos.
    goshe7kiki180703Amanda1983
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2016
    Yeah, not really sure why its price is going up past what Iron Patriot is, but then again I think many more folks got an Iron Patriot as in the US it was a Walmart giveaway, not a GS which I think has inherently bad supply lines for their promos.
    Part of it may be that the new video game it was released with isn't as popular as the video game the Iron Patriot was released with...at least according to the Amazon reviews. I also heard prior to the Avengers video game that it just wasn't that good. I guess there's a correlation with the lack of availability of the SC polybags.
    Amanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    ^ Make it rain!
    SprinkleOtterVortexkiki180703Amanda1983LEGOFan2
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,757
    More like a flood here.... TRU is hitting all my personal and investment weak spots...
    Amanda1983LEGOFan2
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Just paid $40 for a sealed SILVER CENTURION. Yes, that's nuts, but one of the few remaining LEGO things I collect is the superhero minifigs. This one does look cool, and judging by aftermarket prices, $40 is a decent price. If down the line, the market is flooded with them, oh well. 

    Seems like this one has legs to keep going up in price though, if no more hit the market. 
    LEGOFan2
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    One more note on SILVER CENTURION -- I worry about LEGO minifig fakes, so I'd rather get one now, before all the fakes begin flooding the market as well. 
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 555
    Vortex said:
    Hits close to home ,anyone ?? ;)





    With the RRP on sets nowadays, the black haired person is surely the one selling the legos.
    LEGOFan2
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    edited March 2016
    how do we feel about #75157 and #75159 and their impact on older sets #75019 & #10188

    from the review of #75157 it looks like going to have a new mini figure commander gregor.

    we had commander wolffe[sw330] and captain rex[sw194, sw314, sw450]  in the past. these minifigs cost pretty penny :P 

    any insight from older members on their past observation would be very very appreciated :)


    LEGOFan2
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,225
    edited March 2016
    Typically the new version of a set always causes the older set to go down (with an exception of UCS to regular or regular to UCS). Everyone is assuming the new Death star is like 10188, but no one has any info on it. So if that new Death Star is nothing more than a large model with some collector figures then I think the old one will still go up well.
    Even if the new DS is exactly like the old one, but likely more expensive by 100-150 dollars I think the old one will still have demand; just less.
    starwarfan77
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Whoa. Just browsing LEGO.com, and was shocked to see that Tower Bridge hasn't retired yet! 
    SumoLego
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 192
    edited March 2016
    how do we feel about #75157 and #75159 and their impact on older sets #75019 & #10188

    from the review of #75157 it looks like going to have a new mini figure commander gregor.

    we had commander wolffe[sw330] and captain rex[sw194, sw314, sw450]  in the past. these minifigs cost pretty penny :P 

    any insight from older members on their past observation would be very very appreciated :)


    well the #75019 has 2 Jedis so I dont see the price dipping too much. I'm currently selling them for 120gbp. Which is good, considering I got 12 of eh for the price of 48gbp each
    starwarfan77
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    Are we approaching eight years?  Sheesh!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Yeah...pretty soon the Lego Tower Bridge will have been out longer than it took to build the original.
    What's the Tower Bridge? I thought that was the London Bridge? I am one confused American. 
    Jackad7TechnicNick
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    edited March 2016
    ^I believe if it's actually London Bridge made of legos.

    (Awaiting the spatter from heads exploding across the Atlantic)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    goshe7 said:
    ^I believe if it's actually London Bridge made of legos.

    (Awaiting the spatter from heads exploding across the Atlantic)
    Unfortunately I probably have enough TB sets stored in my closet to build a to-scale model, but let's not go there. @SumoLego will start bringing up Construct-a-Zurg and my entire day will be ruined.
    SumoLegobrickupdateAmanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    edited March 2016
    Nah, I'll just start blithering on about sausages, white rangefinders, and how TLG could care less about the secondary market, despite certain people's protestations.  

    Construct-a-Zurg will have its day.  As soon as @Bumblepants buys up the remaining supply in Romania or Stanislavistan (or wherever he is).  By the way, my aggressive auto-correct prefers 'Bible Pants'.
    Jackad7Bumblepantswagnerml2Farmer_JohnAmanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,356
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^Yeah...pretty soon the Lego Tower Bridge will have been out longer than it took to build the original.
    What's the Tower Bridge? I thought that was the London Bridge? I am one confused American. 
    The London Bridge is in Lake Havasu.  Didn't you see Falling Down?
    davetheoxygenmanFarmer_John
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    SumoLego said:
    Nah, I'll just start blithering on about sausages, white rangefinders, and how TLG could care less about the secondary market, despite certain people's protestations.  

    Construct-a-Zurg will have its day.  As soon as @Bumblepants buys up the remaining supply in Romania or Stanislavistan (or wherever he is).  By the way, my aggressive auto-correct prefers 'Bible Pants'.
    Well, lots of people do have "reading pants." I've just never heard of specific pairs for specific books, but to each his own.
    Pitfall69Amanda1983
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    Well, lots of people do have "reading pants." I've just never heard of specific pairs for specific books, but to each his own.
    Are these like reading trousers?  Or do people read in only their underwear?

    Does anyone have Lego Pants? (They sounds pretty uncomfortable)
    Amanda1983
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 7,057
    MattsWhat said:
    Well, lots of people do have "reading pants." I've just never heard of specific pairs for specific books, but to each his own.
    Are these like reading trousers?  Or do people read in only their underwear?

    Does anyone have Lego Pants? (They sounds pretty uncomfortable)
    @Legopants could probably tell us. As for pants with bumbles, I must admit there are better options.
    bandit778Amanda1983
  • LegopantsLegopants GermanyMember Posts: 2,091
    edited March 2016
    ^ They chafe around one's coinage.
    pharmjodPitfall69SumoLegoAmanda1983
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