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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    ^Don't forget the cookie
    SprinkleOtterVorpalRyukiki180703Amanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,096
    ^ You're begging for a Limp Bizkit reference, and I'm not biting.

    Maybe a Pizza Place?
    VorpalRyuSethro3kiki180703Amanda1983
  • Maxime_1987Maxime_1987 Member Posts: 34
    edited March 2016
    Thanks
    SumoLegokiki180703
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,096
    ^ Don't forget the cookie.
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156


    Lego is probably the least happy about the fact that their product generally appreciates.
    I really don't buy that - how many people here would buy the amount of Lego that they do without the reassurance that should they ever duck out of the hobby they'll be very likely to get most of their spend back n a used retired set that's complete?

    It's the same principle with cars - who'd buy a brand new Audi if it depreciated like a Fiat? Low depreciation helps justify paying a premium for something. Like Stella Artois, Lego is reassuringly expensive, which is great for the brand.

    Someone who has the money and the inclination to spend 2 or 3x RRP to buy something that's retired is also likely to have filled their boots on the current wave that interests them, whether that be modulars, SW UCS or whatever else, because no-one willingly waits for something they like to retire to intentionally spend more than RRP on it. If there's only so much of the current wave that interests you, there's a limit on how much money you'll be putting in TLG's pockets.

    I'm confused why people use the luxury car argument to compare to Lego.  It's not the same thing, at all.  Luxury cars may indeed not depreciate as much as others, but they still do depreciate, and they do so a great deal the instant you drive it off the lot.

    Lego has the ability to appreciate significantly above purchase price, even when used, which is a whole different ballgame.

    You completely missed my point. People are willing to pay top dollar for a premium product. If Lego was perceived as a cheap throwaway product then TLG would struggle to get people to pay what they currently do for it. The premium image that is supported by the fact it quite often appreciates in value is good for TLG. 

    I don't believe that high aftermarket prices cannibalise TLG sales either. No one is paying 3x RRP for something TLG are making available right now, and it is stil a set that TLG made money on when it was originally sold
     There are lots of things TLG could do to scupper aftermarket prices amd it chooses not to.

    VorpalRyukiki180703Amanda1983
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,404
    Why was brick bank vacated? Was there a new version where there was a bomb scare?
    VorpalRyuSumoLegokiki180703Amanda1983
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    SumoLego said:
    I liken it more to the sneaker collecting phenomenon.  Which I understand, but am befuddled by simultaneously.

    Nike makes their lot, with an immediate sell-out, knowing full well that there is a lucrative aftermarket sneaker exchange.

    Profit on the first sale, and probably a guarantee of next year's sale figure.
    Yea, but people paying $600 for the new Nikes are just dumb.  I have more respect for Lego collectors. 

    People already throw fits about reselling.  Imagine if TLG sent out e-mails to resellers telling them a new set was coming out and they better get to the store at open so they can buy up all the Lego to put on eBay after the stores sell out that day.  There would be riots, online.
    Amanda1983
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    New poly for Scooby Doo, #30601. The theme was thought to be "one & done," but now we have a new poly... Scare tactics or is there more on the way for SD?
    Amanda1983
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Dougout said:
    Yea, but people paying $600 for the new Nikes are just dumb.  I have more respect for Lego collectors. 

    People already throw fits about reselling.  Imagine if TLG sent out e-mails to resellers telling them a new set was coming out and they better get to the store at open so they can buy up all the Lego to put on eBay after the stores sell out that day.  There would be riots, online.
    #41999
    monkeyhangerPitfall69kiki180703juggles7
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,984
    VorpalRyu said:
    New poly for Scooby Doo, #30601. The theme was thought to be "one & done," but now we have a new poly... Scare tactics or is there more on the way for SD?
    This was mentioned on the previous page. It comes with the new direct-to-DVD movie LEGO Scooby-Doo: Haunted Hollywood. It's a Scooby-Doo figure with a unique expression.

    Honestly, the release of a direct-to-DVD movie after the theme has more or less wrapped up surprises me more than the polybag on its own would, but it's hard to say whether it's indicative of anything. But even if the theme does ever make a comeback, it certainly won't be this year. If it were coming back this year I imagine we'd have heard about it at Toy Fair. Unless it were to come back as a D2C set, which I kind of doubt.
  • madejp86madejp86 IllinoisMember Posts: 284
    How do people feel about the Marvel sets? I have a feeling that since the Civil War sets are out that the Age of Ultron sets will retire some time soon
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937

    You completely missed my point. People are willing to pay top dollar for a premium product. If Lego was perceived as a cheap throwaway product then TLG would struggle to get people to pay what they currently do for it. The premium image that is supported by the fact it quite often appreciates in value is good for TLG. 

    I don't believe that high aftermarket prices cannibalise TLG sales either. No one is paying 3x RRP for something TLG are making available right now, and it is stil a set that TLG made money on when it was originally sold
     There are lots of things TLG could do to scupper aftermarket prices amd it chooses not to.

    I didn't miss your point, I was pointing out that you were using a depreciation argument to support your thought on paying for a premium car as compared to Lego.  That has nothing to do with comparing people picking Lego as a premium product that will last, which I agree they do.

    Then in the middle of that you tossed up Stella Artois into the "premium" mix, which I found funny.
    Amanda1983
  • JessyDooDahJessyDooDah UK Member Posts: 228
    I have 2 sealed bumblebee girl cmfs, is there much difference in price if opened? I've positively identified them with the 'feely test', but I'm sure there are eBay buyers who would try to scam me saying they are something else once opened. Advice please bricksetters! :)
  • tick1970tick1970 LondonMember Posts: 117
    I have 2 sealed bumblebee girl cmfs, is there much difference in price if opened? I've positively identified them with the 'feely test', but I'm sure there are eBay buyers who would try to scam me saying they are something else once opened. Advice please bricksetters! :)
    i would think that sealed minifigures arent that big a thing, better to be safe with the sale and or purchase
    JessyDooDahkiki180703
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,758
    I have 2 sealed bumblebee girl cmfs, is there much difference in price if opened? I've positively identified them with the 'feely test', but I'm sure there are eBay buyers who would try to scam me saying they are something else once opened. Advice please bricksetters! :)
    Yeah- don't use ebay...
    ;)
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,785
    Dougout said:
    SumoLego said:
    I liken it more to the sneaker collecting phenomenon.  Which I understand, but am befuddled by simultaneously.

    Nike makes their lot, with an immediate sell-out, knowing full well that there is a lucrative aftermarket sneaker exchange.

    Profit on the first sale, and probably a guarantee of next year's sale figure.
    Yea, but people paying $600 for the new Nikes are just dumb.  I have more respect for Lego collectors. 

    People already throw fits about reselling.  Imagine if TLG sent out e-mails to resellers telling them a new set was coming out and they better get to the store at open so they can buy up all the Lego to put on eBay after the stores sell out that day.  There would be riots, online.
    Not quite riots, but Black Friday promos like #10697 do annoy me when there are zero available from the retailer and lots on eBay at 200% markups on the day of the sale. 
  • maniacmaniac Yorkshire, UKMember Posts: 858
    edited March 2016
    I have 2 sealed bumblebee girl cmfs, is there much difference in price if opened? I've positively identified them with the 'feely test', but I'm sure there are eBay buyers who would try to scam me saying they are something else once opened. Advice please bricksetters! :)
    I personally in the past have carefully opened spares down the seam at the back and sealed them in grip seal bags. Then mention in the description that they are opened but immediately sealed in grip seal bags to make sure they are getting the correct minifigure. 

    Managed to get the price they command for sealed on eBay (was always the cheapest by a few pence though).
    JessyDooDahkiki180703Amanda1983
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923

    You completely missed my point. People are willing to pay top dollar for a premium product. If Lego was perceived as a cheap throwaway product then TLG would struggle to get people to pay what they currently do for it. The premium image that is supported by the fact it quite often appreciates in value is good for TLG. 

    I don't believe that high aftermarket prices cannibalise TLG sales either. No one is paying 3x RRP for something TLG are making available right now, and it is stil a set that TLG made money on when it was originally sold
     There are lots of things TLG could do to scupper aftermarket prices amd it chooses not to.

    I didn't miss your point, I was pointing out that you were using a depreciation argument to support your thought on paying for a premium car as compared to Lego.  That has nothing to do with comparing people picking Lego as a premium product that will last, which I agree they do.

    Then in the middle of that you tossed up Stella Artois into the "premium" mix, which I found funny.
    I'll say this. I came out of my dark ages as a seller first, and collector second. I couldn't believe the prices I was seeing for retired sets - thinking never in a million years would I pay that. Fast forward 9 years, now, I've forked over a pretty penny for retired sets like the UCS SSD. I certainly don't question the premium price now.
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 634
    prevere said:

    You completely missed my point. People are willing to pay top dollar for a premium product. If Lego was perceived as a cheap throwaway product then TLG would struggle to get people to pay what they currently do for it. The premium image that is supported by the fact it quite often appreciates in value is good for TLG. 

    I don't believe that high aftermarket prices cannibalise TLG sales either. No one is paying 3x RRP for something TLG are making available right now, and it is stil a set that TLG made money on when it was originally sold
     There are lots of things TLG could do to scupper aftermarket prices amd it chooses not to.

    I didn't miss your point, I was pointing out that you were using a depreciation argument to support your thought on paying for a premium car as compared to Lego.  That has nothing to do with comparing people picking Lego as a premium product that will last, which I agree they do.

    Then in the middle of that you tossed up Stella Artois into the "premium" mix, which I found funny.
    I'll say this. I came out of my dark ages as a seller first, and collector second. I couldn't believe the prices I was seeing for retired sets - thinking never in a million years would I pay that. Fast forward 9 years, now, I've forked over a pretty penny for retired sets like the UCS SSD. I certainly don't question the premium price now.
    Similar here.  I bought a couple UCS sets as an "investment" which led me into buying Lego like crazy.  The fact that I know a lot of the sets I'm buying will appreciate and be something that I could resell is what I use to justify my insane new addiction.  Without that, I'd quit cold turkey.  Lego would probably survive without collectors like us, but they certainly wouldn't be doing as well. 


    FollowsCloselypharmjodkiki180703Amanda1983
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    ^ Anecdotal query, do you question it with the quality level lately?  I say this because I remember when I had a number of Shuttle Expeditions, when those curved sloped started cracking all over, I dumped them as soon as possible.

    There was talk in another thread about the flooded market affecting things, but what about the market having less quality?  Is that really the next great danger that is faced by collectors and resellers alike?  In other words, if the general populace starts seeing their bricks cracking apart, they won't be looking at Lego with such a premium distinction.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    So... What have I missed, other than the Death Star finally being gone?
  • pokertalentpokertalent Member Posts: 2
    Why is it, that you can now select which kind of T1 you would like to have. Moreover one of them is sold out.
    t11.png 388.1K
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    goshe7 said:
    Dougout said:
    Yea, but people paying $600 for the new Nikes are just dumb.  I have more respect for Lego collectors. 

    People already throw fits about reselling.  Imagine if TLG sent out e-mails to resellers telling them a new set was coming out and they better get to the store at open so they can buy up all the Lego to put on eBay after the stores sell out that day.  There would be riots, online.
    #41999
    How many #41999 type sets did Lego put out vs how many Nike shoes pumps out only to sell out in a day?  #41999 didn't sell out in a day either.  It was available for at least a few weeks if I remember.  A lot of those Nike shoes go in an hour from release and the stores call certain customers that will come buy them up immediately.

    I don't care how much you pay for Lego, but if you're spending $600 on Nikes or the new Kanye sweater, you are an imbecile.
    pharmjodSprinkleOtterflordVorpalRyukiki180703Amanda1983
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    CCC said:
    Lego dinosaurs made from ABS made from oil made from dinosaurs. The circle of life.
    I don't think oil came from dinosaurs.  I always thought oil was from decay of tons of microorganisms over millions of years that get buried in deposits in oceans and seas after getting trapped by sediments and organism poop.
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    It's all relative, lots of those sneakers appreciate in value as well
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Yea, but my point with the sneakers is:

    1.)  Many sell out the first hour
    2.)  Nike sells sometimes exclusively to certain buyers
    3.)  Nike shoes peak in value almost as soon as they are sold out
    4.)  Spending that on Sneakers is dumb.  They fade and wear easily.  They're mainly only for improving so-called "status".

    Other than two brands that have items that appreciate, they are vastly different.  I don't really see TLG doing what Nike does.  I see it totally differently.  I know someone that used to buy the shoes to resell and Nike's model is more of a purposely selling to people so those people can corner the market rather than selling hundreds of thousands of sets over years and having a lot, but not all, appreciate over time.  (There are some sets like 41999 and others that may cater more to resellers, but they are few and far between.  Those also didn't get sold out in hours like I've already said).
    Amanda1983
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,570

    Why is it, that you can now select which kind of T1 you would like to have. Moreover one of them is sold out.
    One is in an old box and one is in a new box.... seriously.
  • datsunrobbiedatsunrobbie West Haven , CTMember Posts: 1,785
    And in the world of collectibles, the packaging change will make a difference because some people will have to have the first edition and others will have to have both or their collections won't be complete, according to that collector. Others will follow suit so as not to be outdone.
    Amanda1983
  • legomyeggoslegomyeggos Member Posts: 47

    SDCC Legos...

    1.)  Many sell out the first hour
    2.)  sells exclusively to certain buyers
    3.)  peak in value immediately

    goshe7FollowsCloselykiki180703Amanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,096
    Dougout said:

    Spending that on Sneakers is dumb. 
    I'm sure an avid sneaker collector could hold the same opinion of collecting little bits of molded plastic.

    Nontheless, my point is that the manufacturers of products make their money on the primary market, not the secondary one.
    Shibkiki180703Amanda1983
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited March 2016
    And in the world of collectibles, the packaging change will make a difference because some people will have to have the first edition and others will have to have both or their collections won't be complete, according to that collector. Others will follow suit so as not to be outdone.
    This doesn't appear to be the case with Lego.  Normal rules of collectibles: misprints (artic), different versions (box sizes, glow-in-the-dark vs not), etc. don't generally apply.
    goshe7dougtskiki180703juggles7Amanda1983
  • scotty12scotty12 United States, IowaMember Posts: 795
    Geez....with [email protected] charging for shipping and tax, it's not even worth it to buy exclusives from them.  Even with double VIP points, the extra $5 for $100 spent isn't worth it.  I just put the Brick Bank in my cart to check out and was charged $16.95 standard shipping ($24.95 express saver) and $6.95 tax.  What happened to the free shipping?  I'll just keep getting them from Target...at least there I get free shipping, 5% with REDcard and can use the occasional gift card I've gotten thru points on other sites.
    Sethro3kiki180703Amanda1983
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    edited March 2016
    ^other people reporting that the shipping is a mistake. They still offer free shipping for over $75 (?) but it's adding into the cart wrong apparently. Maybe worth a call. 
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318

    SDCC Legos...

    1.)  Many sell out the first hour
    2.)  sells exclusively to certain buyers
    3.)  peak in value immediately

    1.) When?
    2.) Who?
    3.) What?
  • AustinPowersAustinPowers GermanyMember Posts: 278
    As for certain Lego not being available at a discount: Kaufhof (large department store and online retailer in Germany) currently has all toys at 15 percent discount if you buy three or more articles, plus another 15 percent if you use a certain add-on discount code. Some articles are reduced to begin with. All in all there are possible discounts of around 30 percent (to 40 percent on already reduced articles).

    Included highlights:
    Ewok Village
    Slave 1
    UCS Tie Fighter
    DO
    PC
    Ferris Wheel
    Ecto 1
    Wall-E
    Loads of other TFA sets like Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle, MF, FO Tie, etc. as well.
    Plus all the Buildable Figures.
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,758
    MattsWhat said:
    ^other people reporting that the shipping is a mistake. They still offer free shipping for over $75 (?) but it's adding into the cart wrong apparently. Maybe worth a call. 
    I had that problem in Firefox.
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    its in chrome too.
    they (lego group) are aware of the problems! patience is key!
  • tick1970tick1970 LondonMember Posts: 117
    As for certain Lego not being available at a discount: Kaufhof (large department store and online retailer in Germany) currently has all toys at 15 percent discount if you buy three or more articles, plus another 15 percent if you use a certain add-on discount code. Some articles are reduced to begin with. All in all there are possible discounts of around 30 percent (to 40 percent on already reduced articles).

    Included highlights:
    Ewok Village
    Slave 1
    UCS Tie Fighter
    DO
    PC
    Ferris Wheel
    Ecto 1
    Wall-E
    Loads of other TFA sets like Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle, MF, FO Tie, etc. as well.
    Plus all the Buildable Figures.
    only available in Germany
  • Werewolf_pooWerewolf_poo Bonnie ScotlandMember Posts: 71
    As for certain Lego not being available at a discount: Kaufhof (large department store and online retailer in Germany) currently has all toys at 15 percent discount if you buy three or more articles, plus another 15 percent if you use a certain add-on discount code. Some articles are reduced to begin with. All in all there are possible discounts of around 30 percent (to 40 percent on already reduced articles).

    Included highlights:
    Ewok Village
    Slave 1
    UCS Tie Fighter
    DO
    PC
    Ferris Wheel
    Ecto 1
    Wall-E
    Loads of other TFA sets like Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle, MF, FO Tie, etc. as well.
    Plus all the Buildable Figures.

    International shipping? The price of the euro makes some of those sets very appealing. But I assume there will be no shipping to uk
  • DonDon San DiegoMember Posts: 63
    Sigh, so I missed out on Pet Shop. Had decided that would be my foray into the modulars, but greedily waited for the double points and then got distracted until about a day too late to order them from anywhere.

    The big question - Lego's online store says "Temporarily out of stock", so does that mean it *will* come back, or is that just a step on the way to a "Sold Out" status?

    Trying to determine if I should grab at the only 25% premium I see them for at the moment or wait for Lego to stock them again. 

    Thanks,
    Don
  • Dtrimpi87Dtrimpi87 San DiegoMember Posts: 56
    It's a gamble. It could be just temporarily out of stock or it could be on it's way to being gone for good. No one knows for sure but Lego. Since it is the only modular not in the new catalog I personally would lean on the side of it being gone for good.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,570
    Don said:
    Sigh, so I missed out on Pet Shop. Had decided that would be my foray into the modulars, but greedily waited for the double points and then got distracted until about a day too late to order them from anywhere.

    The big question - Lego's online store says "Temporarily out of stock", so does that mean it *will* come back, or is that just a step on the way to a "Sold Out" status?

    Trying to determine if I should grab at the only 25% premium I see them for at the moment or wait for Lego to stock them again. 

    Thanks,
    Don
    I think the Temporarily out of stock status is if they cannot make enough to fulfill orders past 30 days back order.
    Im guessing that many feel the Pet Shop is on borrowed time and were planning to buy during double points.
    But with LEGO I would say check at different times in the day to see if the come back or go back to 'back order' status (as most of the mods seem to be in now) before the double points expires (which I believe is March 15th)
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,358
    You could also try calling to order one by phone. Sometimes I have had success with that in the past
    SumoLegoCCCpharmjodkiki180703
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,096
    edited March 2016
    ... I know a guy...

    Actually, I would recommend @Bumblepants suggestion - the folks at C/S have very accurate information on the stock levels and when items will come available again.

    I was able to get a Delorean after it had retired just by calling.
    catwranglerPitfall69kiki180703
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,404
    And paying :-)
    SumoLegokiki180703
  • tick1970tick1970 LondonMember Posts: 117
    plenty Pet SHop on UK site
    JessyDooDah
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    Just set up an alert with Zoolert.  Rarely do sets go away never to EVER come back in stock again.  There are always a few stragglers popping up.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,096
    Wait, you people have to pay?
    SprinkleOtterVorpalRyupharmjodricecakekiki180703
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