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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    Jackad7 said:
    So I've seen a LOT of hate towards the new UCS hoth set (justifiably so) but this could also be opportunity? With little demand for this UCS set it will probably have a short selling period plus a lot of discounts to try and move them plus people won't have a lot of them. So say in 5-10 years when collector's who want the set (sealed presumably) and can't find it from TLG then turn to a market for a set that was really only bought by other collector's or people who opened it? I realize this is way in advance but I wanted to put my thought's out there.
    Just because adult collectors that want single ship models don't like a playset doesn't mean it won't sell.
  • LuLegoLuLego UKMember Posts: 916
    Thanks Bumblepants. I suppose movie themed sets have a shorter life span given that toy shops have limited shelf space and can't justify sets taking up room if kids have moved on to the next film craze. 
    One more quick question: given that smaller shops will probably stop stocking Jurassic world sets when the new wave of sets are released, does this mean Lego will soon stop selling them online too?
    thanks
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,709
    ^It really comes down to when they end production which can't be known by us. Sometimes Toys R Us will maintain a line longer than other retailers, at least in the USA. This happened with Monster Fighters, the Grand Emporium, and a few others I think.
  • LuLegoLuLego UKMember Posts: 916
    Thank you for your help on that one.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,784
    ^ I get the sense they'll vanish about the same time the Scooby-Doo sets go away late in the summer or early fall.

    I haven't seen the 2016 Lego catalog, but is would safely assume that those spots on the shelves will be used for SW Rogue sets...
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,788
    CCC said:
    Jackad7 said:
    So I've seen a LOT of hate towards the new UCS hoth set (justifiably so) but this could also be opportunity? With little demand for this UCS set it will probably have a short selling period plus a lot of discounts to try and move them plus people won't have a lot of them. So say in 5-10 years when collector's who want the set (sealed presumably) and can't find it from TLG then turn to a market for a set that was really only bought by other collector's or people who opened it? I realize this is way in advance but I wanted to put my thought's out there.
    Just because adult collectors that want single ship models don't like a playset doesn't mean it won't sell.
    But It's AFOLs that pay considerably more than RRP in the aftermarket. I don't think this will be a good investment. Undesirable to AFOLs usually means flat aftermarket prices, especially for a set that is comprised of smaller sets we've seen many times before and likely will again. No one is going to have to wait 10 years or more to see a lot of the content repeated in smaller sets.
    BumblepantsmadforLEGOkiki180703
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,240
    ^ Scooby Doo....had an interesting conversation today because of those sets, apparently they never discontinue a set before they've been out for two years & that Lego doesn't just release one batch of sets on a non-Lego IP, they do at least two different runs of sets. Can't wait for them to discover Town Hall, PoP, etc...
    xiahnaAmanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,784
    TLR didn't have a second run, nor was one planned.
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Speaking of Scooby...

    It appears to be a one and done theme and I expect it to be gone by this time next year. My Walmart has already clearanced some of the sets out. 

    I could see this one doing well in retirement bc it has the nostalgia factor going for it. The stand-outs being the Mystery Machine and Mansion to complete the gang. I still need the mansion myself, but haven't saw anything better than a 10% savings on it. 
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,306
    CCC said:
    Jackad7 said:
    So I've seen a LOT of hate towards the new UCS hoth set (justifiably so) but this could also be opportunity? With little demand for this UCS set it will probably have a short selling period plus a lot of discounts to try and move them plus people won't have a lot of them. So say in 5-10 years when collector's who want the set (sealed presumably) and can't find it from TLG then turn to a market for a set that was really only bought by other collector's or people who opened it? I realize this is way in advance but I wanted to put my thought's out there.
    Just because adult collectors that want single ship models don't like a playset doesn't mean it won't sell.
    But It's AFOLs that pay considerably more than RRP in the aftermarket. I don't think this will be a good investment. Undesirable to AFOLs usually means flat aftermarket prices, especially for a set that is comprised of smaller sets we've seen many times before and likely will again. No one is going to have to wait 10 years or more to see a lot of the content repeated in smaller sets.
    The more worrisome thing to me is if this set, which is basically a thrown together collection and an incomplete UCS (IMO, as no AT-AT for what is supposed to be an Assault on Hoth), does well then LEGO will think they can get away with making such sets, which IMO diminishes the quality of any UCS set overall and likely means just higher prices. The Ewok Village is already a bit questionable to me as for 249'99 it probably could be a bit better, but it is also likely a set to not be repeated any time soon in any smaller variant, whereas Hoth sets will likely still be made long after this one is gone.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 994
    @madforLEGO ...if this set does sell well, then the buyers have spoken and lego will continue with other UCS sets like this, not because they think they can get away with it, but because they know this is what the consumer will buy.  

    I'm not buying this set, don't like it at all, but if it does sell well...then I might be the one one the outside looking in.


  • Ebertm55Ebertm55 London ukMember Posts: 15
    Hey Tick where in London are the tumblers
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    CCC said:
    Jackad7 said:
    So I've seen a LOT of hate towards the new UCS hoth set (justifiably so) but this could also be opportunity? With little demand for this UCS set it will probably have a short selling period plus a lot of discounts to try and move them plus people won't have a lot of them. So say in 5-10 years when collector's who want the set (sealed presumably) and can't find it from TLG then turn to a market for a set that was really only bought by other collector's or people who opened it? I realize this is way in advance but I wanted to put my thought's out there.
    Just because adult collectors that want single ship models don't like a playset doesn't mean it won't sell.
    But It's AFOLs that pay considerably more than RRP in the aftermarket. I don't think this will be a good investment. Undesirable to AFOLs usually means flat aftermarket prices, especially for a set that is comprised of smaller sets we've seen many times before and likely will again. No one is going to have to wait 10 years or more to see a lot of the content repeated in smaller sets.
    I wasn't referring to them on the secondary market. I was replying to a comment saying that there will be little demand and a short selling period plus lots of discounts on them. I doubt that will happen.

    Of course, if there are huge discounts on them, then the resale value will be poor as there will be low demand and lots in the hands of resellers who buy on discount.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,784
    Ebertm55 said:
    Hey Tick where in London are the tumblers
    I think they're right between the Easter Bunny and Santa Claus.

    (And just below the Boba Fetts featuring a white rangefinder.)
    VorpalRyuSprinkleOtterReesesPiecesbrumeykiki180703
  • Ebertm55Ebertm55 London ukMember Posts: 15
    Hahaha I actually know where they are now. Most helpful
    SumoLegokiki180703
  • tick1970tick1970 LondonMember Posts: 117
    Ebertm55 said:
    Hahaha I actually know where they are now. Most helpful

    They were at THurrock and I got mine Friday morning an there were 4 on shelves and werent planned for collection as they were way up top. But the website is not showing any available.

    It was Thurock
    Ebertm55kiki180703Amanda1983
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 486
    I wasn't here for the last may the 4th but I heard the UCS B-wing was half off. Do you think they'll do this for the UCS slave 1?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    No
    Pitfall69SumoLegodougtskiki180703
  • willobee498willobee498 CanadalandMember Posts: 349
    Too early I think, and I suspect the Slave 1 was more popular. No need to give it such a great discount if it sells well.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Jackad7 said:
    I wasn't here for the last may the 4th but I heard the UCS B-wing was half off. Do you think they'll do this for the UCS slave 1?
    You heard wrong; it was May 2013 that the B-Wing was 50% off. I highly doubt this will happen with Slave I 
    SumoLegomadforLEGOdougtskiki180703
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,784
    I think that was the last time any UCS set was reduced or marked-down at the Lego Retail Store.

    (I haven't seen anything of that ilk similarly reduced through [email protected])
  • Ebertm55Ebertm55 London ukMember Posts: 15
    tick1970 said:
    Ebertm55 said:
    Hahaha I actually know where they are now. Most helpful

    They were at THurrock and I got mine Friday morning an there were 4 on shelves and werent planned for collection as they were way up top. But the website is not showing any available.

    It was Thurock
    Thank you very much Tick. I ended up getting one elsewhere by chance. I was planning on making a trip there but thankfully one came my way. In the process i also picked up a Slave 1. No special deals or anything but ive kinda started to have a liking to this set. 
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,240
    ^ Saw stuff about that earlier today, looking forward to March 1st, if the articles I've read are 100% accurate.
    xiahnaAmanda1983
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 186
    can you link the articles? :)

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    @Jackad7 ;Regarding the last few May the 4th promos, they have been extremely weak.  Nothing of worth more than 20% off.  Lego has really morphed into using this more as a product launch date rather than a day for discounts.
    Pitfall69kiki180703Amanda1983
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    It will tend to one over infinity (and beyond).

  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Bump.  It's been like 12 hours.....
    VorpalRyuPitfall69kiki180703LEGOFan2
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    How many sausages can fit in the death star?
    Jackad7kiki180703catwranglerCurvedRoadPlateAmanda1983
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Ok, so when is the Death Star going to ret.... ohhhh.. umm, what do we talk about now?
    Disney CMF
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,784
    Is Assault on Hoth going to immediately shoot up to 3x RRP upon retirement?
    goshe7Jackad7VorpalRyubandit778kiki180703Amanda1983
  • Jackad7Jackad7 Wisconsin Member Posts: 486
    SumoLego said:
    Is Assault on Hoth going to immediately shoot up to 3x RRP upon retirement?
    Does the tin man have a sheet metal c... male chicken?
    VorpalRyuSumoLegobandit778kiki180703
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,240
    ^ Does an Ursus arctos defecate in a large area of land covered with trees or other woody vegetation.
    bandit778kiki180703xiahna
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,784
    ^ and ^^... Buy! Buy! Buy!

    I want to know if J.J. Watt ... in the woods whilst chopping wood.
    VorpalRyukiki180703Jackad7
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    the little green marslings from toystory. i just love them!
    Amanda1983
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 357
    I'm going to be a buzzkill and ask an actual investment question.  What are the prospects for #75094 Imperial Shuttle Tydirium post retirement?  Original trilogy, goes well with the Ewok village for display/play purposes. I am hesitant to buy them at retail, but at a discount they seem worthwhile.  
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,709
    ^I don't have a copy but everyone who does seems to speak highly of it. I doubt it will be redone for awhile and should hold interest to OT Star Wars fans. Only considerations are your buy-in price and how many others will too? Can't see losing money on it.
    bandit778kiki180703
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited February 2016
    I think they will do very well as an alternative to #10212.  I believe there will always be love for Imperial Shuttles*, just like there will always be love for AT-ATs*.

    * Good looking
    madforLEGOTXLegoguybandit778kiki180703Amanda1983
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Plus, and I just noticed this, Leia is holding a chocolate chip cookie.  Is this the new sausage?
    SumoLegokiki180703Amanda1983
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited February 2016
    Btw, it's on sale for $82.80 on Amazon US, which is right near the lowest it's ever been - limit 2.

    And you get a cookie!
    madforLEGOkiki180703
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,873
    It has also been $49 in the US at many Wal-Mart's, so if you find it that price it's a no brainer.
    TheLoneTensorRonyarkiki180703Thanos75
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I think Tyderium is a good investment.  It's price point to start may have been a bit high, but its been on sale at 20% off alot.  I think it has alot going for it, 1) It's OT, 2) It hasn't been rehashed 1000 times, and 3) It doesn't figure to be rehashed again in the near future.  Throw in some decent minifigs and I think its a decent investment at the correct purchase price.
    SumoLegoRonyarkiki180703
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 357
    Thanks folks.  Now I just have to go scavenging to all the Walmarts in the area as the inventory being reported to Brickseek doesn't seem reliable anymore. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,306
    I have always though that most such inventory checkers will always never be 100% accurate (even the stores own app). Heck even brickseek says that, as I believe it really is up to the systems at each store to update their inventory and when it does... 1 hour... 2 hours..12... 24?. It is the same reason why I typically just go to the store instead of looking to see if the inventory is 'available'
  • RedbullgivesuwindRedbullgivesuwind Brickset's Secret HeadquatersMember Posts: 1,742
    Does anyone know out of the Parisian restraunt, pet store and ewok village which is likely to go EOL first? I am trying to plan and space my Lego purchases.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,873
    The Wal-Mart app is showing lots of random stuff for me in some stores I've hit in the past. But brickseek shows no inventory and I'm more inclined to believe brickseek. Not sure it's worth me trekking out.
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