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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    The real answer to the question is that if you have to ask that question, you don't have a really good feel for the market and you should probably sit on the sidelines a while longer and pay attention.  In the event that you have the inventory already and can sell it and not lose money, if you don't understand the market or don't feel comfortable with it, then you should probably sell and get out.  
    Amanda1983
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    edited February 2016
    what do you think of the speed champions theme...

    will they eventually go under 10€ each (MISB) sometime this year ?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    brumey said:
    what do you think of the speed champions theme...

    will they eventually go under 10€ each (MISB) sometime this year ?
    I am unimpressed by the Speed Champions as a whole, but mostly because most of the cars look the same, seem out of scale to the minis, and have too many stickers for me. I do like the new releases they are doing of the pro street camaro and the ford coupe (as they actually look like the cars they are supposed to be).
    pharmjodkiki180703
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    Wondering with the initial rise of the UCS X-Wing, if that will bode well for TIE and Slave. Thinking Ewok Village is a slam dunk, and Sandcrawler is a bit of a dud.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    prevere said:
    Wondering with the initial rise of the UCS X-Wing, if that will bode well for TIE and Slave. Thinking Ewok Village is a slam dunk, and Sandcrawler is a bit of a dud.
    I think almost any OT UCS that is 199.99 USD or more will rise. I also think Ewok Village is as 'hit and miss' as much as the UCS Sandcrawler as Ewoks are loved or hated by many fans (would be interesting to see how many have sold over its run compared to  the Sandcrawler).
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @Prevere I'm opposite on prediction of EV versus SC.

    I think the EV will languish as most playset type of SW sets do (Battle of Endor, Palpatine's Arrest, Jabba's Palace).

    While SC will outperform in the long run due to being official UCS, high RRP (like MF, SSD, ISD), low in number in the wild, looks great & accurate to source.
    prevere
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    edited February 2016
    i m like the porsch and the mclaren.. also dont like the decals.
    the hotrod set is the one im diggin the most.
  • MugenPowerMugenPower Member Posts: 469
    madforLEGO said: 

    I am unimpressed by the Speed Champions as a whole, but mostly because most of the cars look the same, seem out of scale to the minis, and have too many stickers for me. I do like the new releases they are doing of the pro street camaro and the ford coupe (as they actually look like the cars they are supposed to be).
    Yeah, without the stickers, you can't really tell what they're supposed to be.  I've tried convincing myself many times that I should like them but I just can't.  I'll start buying them if I can find them at a deep discount, though.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,815
    Ah, the minifigure scale criticism.  I think in terms of scale, the race cars are actually closer to a 'real' scale.  Which probably looks funny because the rest of the vehicles are not.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited February 2016
    It does kinda make you scratch your head when it comes to marketing the Speed Champions.  Their size implies they are built for kids, but the branding and designs imply adults.  I was initially interested in these as at-work desk decorations, but haven't bought one because they are a little too toy-ish.  I would have liked to see them double their size so you aren't so dependent on the...ugh...stickers to know what they are at a glance.
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    they are closest to my beloved black palace cinema cabrio.  an my city needs some cars
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,815
    It does kinda make you scratch your head when it comes to marketing the Speed Champions.  Their size implies they are built for kids, but the branding and designs imply adults.  I was initially interested in these as at-work desk decorations, but haven't bought one because they are a little too toy-ish.  I would have liked to see them double their size so you aren't so dependent on the...ugh...stickers to know what they are at a glance.
    These are definitely geared to kids, more likely in the European and non-North American markets.  I'm sure there are plenty of race fans in the US, but I can't imagine it's anywhere near the interest in Europe.

    I am sure there is enough of a market of casual Lego fans that will buy anything branded racing, but not in the same manner as other licensed product.  (Scooby-Doo.)

    As an aside, I think a Lego NASCAR line would do well in North America, but nobody anywhere else would probably be interested.  Lego appears not to want to differentiate the brand by market on a large scale.

    (As another example, I have no doubt that there will be future PotC Lego, because of the international appeal of that franchise.)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I love the Speed Champions Series and cannot wait for the next wave, but I am in agreement that they are "geared" for kids. I have 2 in my Modular City layout. I like the larger scale.
    BumblepantstallblocktooSumoLegokiki180703JELJ1S
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,858
    It does kinda make you scratch your head when it comes to marketing the Speed Champions.  Their size implies they are built for kids, but the branding and designs imply adults.  I was initially interested in these as at-work desk decorations, but haven't bought one because they are a little too toy-ish.  I would have liked to see them double their size so you aren't so dependent on the...ugh...stickers to know what they are at a glance.
    I mean, adults buy small sets too. A number of people I follow on Twitter who aren't even really involved in online LEGO communities collect the CMFs, for example. Frankly, a smaller set like the Speed Champions is probably a lot easier for an adult who's not really a dyed-in-the-wool AFOL to buy as a novelty rather than as a part of a larger collection.

    But more to the point, my younger brother was totally into Ferraris for many years, and loved the Ferrari sets from 2004 (when he was about seven) to 2009 (when he was about 12), so I think that 7–14 age range the Speed Champions are marketed towards seems pretty appropriate. Even kids can develop a strong connection that kind of authentic branding and design if it's for a prestigious enough brand.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Aanchir said:
    It does kinda make you scratch your head when it comes to marketing the Speed Champions.  Their size implies they are built for kids, but the branding and designs imply adults.  I was initially interested in these as at-work desk decorations, but haven't bought one because they are a little too toy-ish.  I would have liked to see them double their size so you aren't so dependent on the...ugh...stickers to know what they are at a glance.
    I mean, adults buy small sets too. A number of people I follow on Twitter who aren't even really involved in online LEGO communities collect the CMFs, for example.
    Please don't build up a straw man where I am saying that there are no adults that buy these kinds of things too.  I never wrote that, nor implied it.
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    What I've noticed with Speed Champions is that it's not a theme some see the need to complete--and the reason could be due to the fact that some sets look great while others fail. Myself and several others I know picked out the few they liked and completely ignored the rest. I already see that happening with me for the next wave too. Even my son, who is firmly in the "it's LEGO, buy it all" camp, only wanted two from the original group.
  • tallblocktootallblocktoo CanadaMember Posts: 497
    I realize that if you are a huge fan of these styles of cars they fail on many points by design as I have seen said here and on other sites.  However I have bought them all and set up together I think its fun and would imagine any young racing enthusiast would really enjoy them as well.  Looking forward to the next wave.  
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,858
    Aanchir said:
    It does kinda make you scratch your head when it comes to marketing the Speed Champions.  Their size implies they are built for kids, but the branding and designs imply adults.  I was initially interested in these as at-work desk decorations, but haven't bought one because they are a little too toy-ish.  I would have liked to see them double their size so you aren't so dependent on the...ugh...stickers to know what they are at a glance.
    I mean, adults buy small sets too. A number of people I follow on Twitter who aren't even really involved in online LEGO communities collect the CMFs, for example.
    Please don't build up a straw man where I am saying that there are no adults that buy these kinds of things too.  I never wrote that, nor implied it.
    I'm not trying to build a straw man. Nor did I mean to imply that you don't think adults buy these. I just don't quite understand where there's a disconnect between "small size" and "for adults". I mean, if they were just four studs wide like the Cars sets or the recent Shell promos, then yeah, I'd say that would imply "built for kids". That would allow for hardly any detail to differentiate the cars except possibly via specialty molds. That's not much bigger than Hot Wheels/Matchbox size.

    But these are not much different in size than some of the high-quality collectible die-cast cars my dad has. Two inches by five inches, let's say. I think that seems like the sort of size that an adult might casually buy to put on desk or shelf. Whereas if they much bigger like #10248-1 or even, I think more adult buyers might hesitate unless they were serious collectors. If I misunderstood your post, then by all means, clarify, but don't insinuate that I misrepresented your post on purpose.

    I think the biggest they could get while still being relatively affordable for casual adult buyers would be the size of #31006, but then they'd be even more out-of-scale with minifigures. And not including minifigures might discourage buyers of all ages, given what a powerful icon the minifigure is.
    tomahawkerLyichirkiki180703Amanda1983
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    What they are missing are mini fig girls in bikinis and hot pants. Everyone knows you need hot girls to sell cars.
    Pitfall69TheLoneTensorwagnerml2FollowsCloselyThanos75kiki180703brumeyVorpalRyubandit778
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I'm not arguing with you about anything regarding the cars.  I'm simply stating that you built a straw man out of what I wrote that didn't represent what I wrote.  I wrote nothing to indicate that adults don't buy small sets, and you responded with "adults buy small sets too."  Why did you do that?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    Aanchir said:
    It does kinda make you scratch your head when it comes to marketing the Speed Champions.  Their size implies they are built for kids, but the branding and designs imply adults.  I was initially interested in these as at-work desk decorations, but haven't bought one because they are a little too toy-ish.  I would have liked to see them double their size so you aren't so dependent on the...ugh...stickers to know what they are at a glance.
    I mean, adults buy small sets too. A number of people I follow on Twitter who aren't even really involved in online LEGO communities collect the CMFs, for example. Frankly, a smaller set like the Speed Champions is probably a lot easier for an adult who's not really a dyed-in-the-wool AFOL to buy as a novelty rather than as a part of a larger collection.

    But more to the point, my younger brother was totally into Ferraris for many years, and loved the Ferrari sets from 2004 (when he was about seven) to 2009 (when he was about 12), so I think that 7–14 age range the Speed Champions are marketed towards seems pretty appropriate. Even kids can develop a strong connection that kind of authentic branding and design if it's for a prestigious enough brand.
    And speaking of prestigious brands, it was LEGO who beat out Ferrari last year as the most powerful global brand. Yet no one can figure out how to spell it CORRECTLY.

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/kathryndill/2015/02/19/lego-tops-global-ranking-of-the-most-powerful-brands-in-2015/#9c7dfe657f5f


  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,858
    I'm not arguing with you about anything regarding the cars.  I'm simply stating that you built a straw man out of what I wrote that didn't represent what I wrote.  I wrote nothing to indicate that adults don't buy small sets, and you responded with "adults buy small sets too."  Why did you do that?
    Your exact words were "Their size implies they are built for kids". I never mistook that for meaning "adults don't buy small sets", however, it did seem (in my eyes) to imply that adults would be more interested in them if they were larger. And I don't entirely agree with that, especially when it comes to adults who don't collect LEGO but might buy occasional sets as a novelty.

    If I misinterpreted your statement, I apologize. I interpreted it the way that it seemed to make the most sense to me. If that was wrong, then please explain to me what that statement WAS supposed to mean instead of continuing to call me out for making an honest mistake.
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 707
    What are peoples' thoughts on the Jurassic World theme? Worth holding onto with another movie coming out?
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^JP was hot at Christmas when everyone thought it would be done.  Now its pretty much everywhere again.  I've seen them at Target, TRU, Walmart and K-Mart.  I'd say the Indominous Rex, TRex and Walmart Raptor sets would be the best ones to hold onto, but sets that have the mid-run bump (IE Minecraft), seldom live up to post EOL expectations.

  • JayoheazyJayoheazy SF Bay AreaMember Posts: 14
    edited February 2016
    What are your guys' thoughts on the Classic Batman Cave? With virtually every figure (beside Penguin) being exclusive and the only way to get the batmobile I've been seriously considering it over the GB HQ. My only concern is that the future audience/market for a 60's Batman will be quite small considering that age range. I love the Cesar Romero Joker minifig!
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^The Penguin in that Batcave is actually unique. The purple hat is new thus making him exclusive also.
  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 494

    For the next twenty or so years, there will be some AFOLs with very fond memories of the 60's Batman TV series, many of whom may not yet have come out of their Dark Ages. So I'd say there will be a sufficiently decent future audience for the set--and given all the complaints over the price, it might well turn into another Town Hall.

    Not that I'm an investor. I just hope the aftermarket will stay strong enough to keep my current mound of Lego valuable if I ever need urgent cash more than my collection!

  • willobee498willobee498 CanadalandMember Posts: 349
    So long as there are ways to watch old TV shows, there will be a market. Just hope it's later than the number of people who bought 10 Batcaves as an investment...
    FollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,460
    prevere said:
    And speaking of prestigious brands, it was LEGO who beat out Ferrari last year as the most powerful global brand. Yet no one can figure out how to spell it CORRECTLY.

    Here you go: it.

    mr.pigglesYodaliciousSumoLegotallblocktooMasterBeefyAmanda1983chriss860
  • danstraindepotdanstraindepot Member Posts: 172
    My son loves the new Batcave, and he has never seen the 60's show.  I think it has a place in LEGO Batman collections.  And its always possible (likely) the 60's Batman is featured in the new LEGO Batman movie, that could add to its desirability for another generation as well!
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    my 5 year old nephew dug out the new batcave, printed it out, showed it to me ("that one you have to get uncle") and also loves it. he doesnt know the tv show. he just likes the set! he thinks it looks "cool".
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    I don't think kids have to know anything about the 60s show. The set has recognizable characters regardless of the time period they came from. My son simply sees a new Batman set; not an era specific one.
    madforLEGOkiki180703tallblocktooAmanda1983
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,938
    The kids haven't considered cost/value for money, they just like the look of it.
    Amanda1983
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited February 2016
    The kids haven't considered cost/value for money, they just like the look of it.

    It is easy to want to buy when you are not the one having to actually purchase it :-)

    Ronyarkiki180703Amanda1983
  • JayoheazyJayoheazy SF Bay AreaMember Posts: 14
    Exactly :) Still trying to determine which has more value long term, the Batcave or GB HQ. Sadly I can only afford one this year 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    Jayoheazy said:
    Exactly :) Still trying to determine which has more value long term, the Batcave or GB HQ. Sadly I can only afford one this year 
    Yeah that is a tough choice. I think for me as a completion-ist I'll get the GB HQ for the GB Hearse. As for the Batcave, the only really 'pieces' I want out of it is the Batmobile and maybe the 60's Joker and Catwoman figures. Everything else, meh. I would buy it to just pick out the batmobile and figures, but not sure I could recoup the money from the rest, or even want to have to go through the trouble to do that.Just hope the batmobile itself does sell for a large amount.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    @Prevere I'm opposite on prediction of EV versus SC.

    I think the EV will languish as most playset type of SW sets do (Battle of Endor, Palpatine's Arrest, Jabba's Palace).

    While SC will outperform in the long run due to being official UCS, high RRP (like MF, SSD, ISD), low in number in the wild, looks great & accurate to source.
    Great insight. I see your logic here. It's wonderful to see different perspectives on how to evaluate potential winners. It really comes down to a few core factors that each of us hold dearly.
    BrickDancerkiki180703Amanda1983
  • danstraindepotdanstraindepot Member Posts: 172
    edited February 2016
    Am I the only who one grew up wanting the original Star Wars Ewok Village toy, which then translated into having to have the LEGO version?  To me that makes it different from other SW playsets.
    pharmjodYodaliciouskiki180703
  • danstraindepotdanstraindepot Member Posts: 172
    And my vote is also definitely for the 60's Batcave over the GB HQ.   Just one vote of course...
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 220
    edited February 2016
    GBHQ is such a massively near-complete set, I have a hard time placing it in front of the Batcave.  Well, with exception of the Ecto-1.

    I'm getting 2 Batcaves and MOC'ing them together, so we'll see what I come up with.
  • legomentallegomental UkMember Posts: 329
    Am I the only who one grew up wanting the original Star Wars Ewok Village toy, which then translated into having to have the LEGO version?  To me that makes it different from other SW playsets.
    No I did too and this is exactly why the Ewok village is the only star wars Lego set we have in this house. I think it's very different from the other sets. It's really neat and kids love the play with it. Our ewoks currently have Spiderman trapped in the trap door and batsman has come to tea 
    Chubblestallblocktookiki180703Amanda1983
  • luckyrussluckyruss UKMember Posts: 872
    ^ excellent - is he eating cucumber sandwiches?
  • legomentallegomental UkMember Posts: 329
    Oops autocorrect sorry. today scooby doo and shaggy have attacked in a speed boat. I look forward to tonight's installment after school. The ewoks provide hours of fun in our house. I think EV and the scooby doo lighthouse are probably the favourites among 5 year old they like the trap doors , hidden treasures and the characters. I have had palpitations this week though as they have lost chewbacca somewhere and he has yet to resurface
    Amanda1983
  • SecretjediSecretjedi Member Posts: 163
    edited February 2016
    I'd go Bat cave over GBHQ just because there will always be a much larger fan base. Not sure if the demand would be there for Ghostbusters in 20 years time, compared to Batman. Fans who saw Ghostbusters in the cinema are at an age where they'd be buying it for themself now for nostalgia.

    The batcave appeals to any Batman fans, not j those of the show. 

    While you can argue GBHQ could appeal to anyone who wants a great fire station. 
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    Jayoheazy said:
    Exactly :) Still trying to determine which has more value long term, the Batcave or GB HQ. Sadly I can only afford one this year 
    For investment, neither this year. Long term I see the GBHQ as a more desirable set. Main reason being the Batcave is just plain unattractive.
    TheLoneTensorkiki180703BrickDancer
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,342
    prevere said:
    @Prevere I'm opposite on prediction of EV versus SC.

    I think the EV will languish as most playset type of SW sets do (Battle of Endor, Palpatine's Arrest, Jabba's Palace).

    While SC will outperform in the long run due to being official UCS, high RRP (like MF, SSD, ISD), low in number in the wild, looks great & accurate to source.
    Great insight. I see your logic here. It's wonderful to see different perspectives on how to evaluate potential winners. It really comes down to a few core factors that each of us hold dearly.
    To add further I did ok on Endor, Palp Arrest and Jabba Palace based on purchase price as big discounts were available at different times. Getting EV at 50% off is not going to happen
    madforLEGOpharmjodmgjvegaskiki180703
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 192
    so, how will the Ecto-1 do now that the new one is anounced? retirement? 
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^ It'll probably be okay because the new one is just that...the new one. It isn't a re-released or re-designed set. It's a new set based on a different vehicle. Those fans of the original will still want the Ecto-1 they remember, not the new version. Or they'll want both...plenty of completionists out there to go around.
    madforLEGOAanchirPitfall69BrickDancerVorpalRyukiki180703Amanda1983
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited February 2016
    uriel said:
    so, how will the Ecto-1 do now that the new one is anounced? retirement? 
    I'm not a fan of the new GB 'reboot' (though, with what appears to be the original characters coming back as well, I would say it is more a sequel), it just does not really appeal to me on multiple levels. I'm guessing I will not be the only one, plus the new GB car looks horrible to me (and I'm guessing to others EDIT: OK well the LEGO model of it looks better to me than the actual one spied for the movie). So I would say that the Ideas one will do fine once it is gone. I think the only thing that could stop it is if the GB line somehow issues another 'original' Ecto 1, which I'm guessing will not occur.
    Though I think this is why the original Ecto 1 is not with the GB HQ, so you could put the 'reboot' one into the firehouse just as 'easily' (That is of course if the reboot uses a firehouse.. I'm guessing they are).
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    This is awful lot of Ghostbusters sets in a short period of time. Just sayin'.
    Rainstorm26kiki180703FollowsClosely
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