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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,520
    prevere said:
    SumoLego said:
    prevere said:
    ^Seems like the POTC ships have flat-lined lately.
    They've flat-lined at 3x RRP?  That probably depresses the market for the Brick Bounty.  The Brick Bounty is a bit more toy-ish.
    Flat-lined as in ... they quickly rose to 3x and now there's a little bit of a backward trend. GE is going through the same thing. Do you panic and sell now, or have faith that there's another $50-$100 in growth later in the year?

    This time of year isn't a great indicator either, I'll admit to that. It's depressing that the Xmas selling season is so far away.
    Well for the PoTC I think it also depends on if LEGO will do more PoTC when the next movie comes out AND if they 'phone it in' on designs and just re-release the Black Pearl. Not sure if the Queen Anne's Revenge will come back or not.

    FB and GE both seem to have peaked right now with very little movement, but again there are tons of those in the after market, I can only imagine how many of each are sitting in someone closet/storage area/inventory room (and no, I do not care to hear bragging of who has what). All in all, I see FB and GE doing nothing but rising, but it will take time, especially with the GB HQ out. I'm guessing some are asking 'why pay 350-380USD for a FB when I can get the GBHQ for 350 USD?'.

  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 942
    ^The interesting thing there is $350 for FB at a lower piece count and non-licensed figures. Completely different buildings. They don't work together, but if you truly didn't want to use the GBHQ as it was, you could certainly trim it down to resemble a FB with a few modifications/extra pieces purchased. Plus you get the licensed figures and some neat details!

    As far as POTC...one would think LEGO would get the license again, because why not? Also, I would imagine they would update the Black pearl since it is such an "iconic" ship for those movies. Even if it is subtle like most Star Wars ships updates. But people will still buy it in droves. Heck, I'd probably buy one to part out since the black hull pieces are so expensive right now.
    madforLEGOkiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,520
    edited January 2016
    Sethro3 said:
    ^The interesting thing there is $350 for FB at a lower piece count and non-licensed figures. Completely different buildings. They don't work together, but if you truly didn't want to use the GBHQ as it was, you could certainly trim it down to resemble a FB with a few modifications/extra pieces purchased. Plus you get the licensed figures and some neat details!

    As far as POTC...one would think LEGO would get the license again, because why not? Also, I would imagine they would update the Black pearl since it is such an "iconic" ship for those movies. Even if it is subtle like most Star Wars ships updates. But people will still buy it in droves. Heck, I'd probably buy one to part out since the black hull pieces are so expensive right now.
    I'm guessing LEGO never really 'lost' the license for PoTC, just in hiatus as I'm guessing more movies were always planned since the 2nd and 3rd.  Black Pearl is a nice ship set, so nice I have been debating about parting with my sealed set, same with Queen Anne's revenge.
    SumoLegokiki180703
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    ^Same here. I purposely kept one sealed copy of Black Pearl, QAR and Imperial Flagship. Even with their inflated prices,  I just have a hard time listing them.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Disney owns POTC.  Disney and Lego are strong business allies and both bullies in the marketplace in their own right.  Even if the POTC license has lapsed, there is no doubt that Lego will have it for the new movie if they should want it.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,762
    Not sure if the Queen Anne's Revenge will come back or not.
    Based on what is currently known about the movie, another QAR doesn't sound likely.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,055
    I'm holding out hope we'll finally get a 'Flying Dutchman'.
    Pitfall69madforLEGOkiki180703AdeelZubair
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    SumoLego said:
    I meant that even if it sits at 3x RRP, that's not a bad investment.  
    I got all my BP's during a Target BOGO sale. I think I got them for $74.99+tax each after it was all said and done, so 3xRRP is most excellent indeed.
    SumoLegoFollowsCloselykiki180703Amanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,055
    ^ That's some savvy investing.  Just make sure to sell them before they Construct-A-Zurg you!
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    ^^ A Target BOGO?  The BP's were a 2012 Target Black Friday Door buster at $75.00.  I bought 6 of them and then got cold feet about how much I was spending on Lego and walked away from stacks of them! Oh, if only......
  • hewmanhewman Member Posts: 92
    I'm not really on top of this thread but I was pretty sure the Tumbler was retired, however it has now reappeared on Australian shop at home with a shipping date of early February. I've also spotted it at the retailer in Aus that had it as an exclusive.
  • xiahnaxiahna Member Posts: 156
    @hewman it now says "Sold Out"
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    edited January 2016
    ecmo47 said:
    ^^ A Target BOGO?  The BP's were a 2012 Target Black Friday Door buster at $75.00.  I bought 6 of them and then got cold feet about how much I was spending on Lego and walked away from stacks of them! Oh, if only......
    Yeah, I was surprised myself. This was around September and when I received them, one of the boxes had a nice hole in it. My nephew's birthday was coming up and I ended up giving it as a birthday gift :) I am with you, I should have bought a lot more, but alas.
  • flordflord CanadaMember Posts: 795
    Should a guy buy a retail-priced #75055 Star Destroyer to later re-sell? The thing is ugly and small IMHO so I would not open it. Would there still be a market for it in a couple of years?
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    edited January 2016
    ^it's already doing OK, but it spent much of it's life at well under £100 (from £120) over here, so I can see there being quite a lot on the market for at least a year.  If you can hold on to it, I'm sure it will do OK, but I am also sure that another one will be along at some point to cut into it being the one you can retire on.
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,758
    First Order Star Destroyer is probably fast approaching...
    exciter1CurvedRoadPlatekiki180703
  • Maxime_1987Maxime_1987 Member Posts: 34
    I got an offer. #10221 for 500 canadian. Not new but everything is there. Should I buy it? or should I pass?
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    ^Yes.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ecmo47 said:
    ^^ A Target BOGO?  The BP's were a 2012 Target Black Friday Door buster at $75.00.  I bought 6 of them and then got cold feet about how much I was spending on Lego and walked away from stacks of them! Oh, if only......
    Don't beat yourself up.  Hindsight is 20-20.  If I had only bought a few more Falcons back in the day!  I only got the 2 that I did get because LEGO run them 20% off to get rid of their remaining inventory, right before they retired them.  Sounds strange, doesn't it?  You would NEVER see that happen today.
    madforLEGOkiki180703
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    I got an offer. #10221 for 500 canadian. Not new but everything is there. Should I buy it? or should I pass?
    Run, don't walk. Good luck!
    Maxime_1987kiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,520
    cloaked7 said:
    ecmo47 said:
    ^^ A Target BOGO?  The BP's were a 2012 Target Black Friday Door buster at $75.00.  I bought 6 of them and then got cold feet about how much I was spending on Lego and walked away from stacks of them! Oh, if only......
    Don't beat yourself up.  Hindsight is 20-20.  If I had only bought a few more Falcons back in the day!  I only got the 2 that I did get because LEGO run them 20% off to get rid of their remaining inventory, right before they retired them.  Sounds strange, doesn't it?  You would NEVER see that happen today.
    Yeah, wish I would have bought more: Market Streets, Cafe Corners, a UCS Falcon or 10, Santa Fe locos and train cars, Grand Carousels...........
    SumoLegokiki180703
  • rlangston77rlangston77 USAMember Posts: 30
    What are people's thoughts on the Ferris Wheel - 10247?  It seems unique and cool enough to potentially appreciate in price nicely after retirement.  On the flip side, I hear a lot of people saying it's not a fun build and once completed it seems grossly over priced for what you get.  
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,758
    ^ And 5,000 for a Falcon isn't overpriced? ;)
    Amanda1983
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^^ I've heard the repetitive build comments, but in person I think it looks great once completed. It's a substantial model when finished and would make a great centerpiece to a town setup. In that respect, I don't think it's overpriced. But that's me.
    Pitfall69RonyarSumoLegokiki180703Amanda1983
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,520
    edited January 2016
    What are people's thoughts on the Ferris Wheel - 10247?  It seems unique and cool enough to potentially appreciate in price nicely after retirement.  On the flip side, I hear a lot of people saying it's not a fun build and once completed it seems grossly over priced for what you get.  
    Well I think that much of what you just said was said about the #10196 Grand Carousel.. Try to find a sealed box one for under 2K USD now. Now some of that may be because there is the rarity and the Ferris Wheel and Fairground mixer are out, but again I have a feeling those complaining that 199.99 USD is too much now will pay dearly if they want it after EOL . Will it get to the heights that the Carousel did? Not likely, but I see it as a nice set, even with the huge number of resellers that are likely stacking it.
    goshe7kiki180703
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,453
    Again, most sets that are entering retirement will be lucky to reach 3x rrp; The Ferris Wheel is no exception. I built the Ferris Wheel and thought it to be very impressive; especially once you add Power Functions. As far as the build being repetitive...Of course it is going to be repetitive!!! It's a Ferris Wheel.
    tallblocktoopharmjodSumoLegochuckpkiki180703RennyprevereAmanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,055
    I think also people forget that the Ferris Wheel could be considered a re-issue or second iteration of a previous set.

    It's not a police station or a fire station, but it would surprise me if it resurfaces again in the future.

    (Much like my hope for another Carousel...)
    Yodaliciouskiki180703
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    cloaked7 said:
    ecmo47 said:
    ^^ A Target BOGO?  The BP's were a 2012 Target Black Friday Door buster at $75.00.  I bought 6 of them and then got cold feet about how much I was spending on Lego and walked away from stacks of them! Oh, if only......
    Don't beat yourself up.  Hindsight is 20-20.  If I had only bought a few more Falcons back in the day!  I only got the 2 that I did get because LEGO run them 20% off to get rid of their remaining inventory, right before they retired them.  Sounds strange, doesn't it?  You would NEVER see that happen today.
    Yeah, wish I would have bought more: Market Streets, Cafe Corners, a UCS Falcon or 10, Santa Fe locos and train cars, Grand Carousels...........
    The difference is that in this case, I KNEW that the set was about to retire and that they most certainly would be quick flips. I just hadn't over come the though of dropping large sums of cash on a "mere" toy.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^Cash is king. That's the best lesson I've ever learned in selling.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Please hold your tomatoes and rotten vegetables for someone else, I have not read through this forum as much as I would have liked lately.  Been totally swamped with school work and probably won't get any sleep tonight.

    But is there an word on what the new LEGO Death Star looks like?

    Also, I love LEGO (not Legos, see I'm learning guys!!)

    Any feedback, good or bad, towards me or the set would be much appreciated.  Thank you, you're all wonderful and have been a very big help to me whether I have reciprocated that to each of you or not.  You're all special to me!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,520
    Dougout said:
    Please hold your tomatoes and rotten vegetables for someone else, I have not read through this forum as much as I would have liked lately.  Been totally swamped with school work and probably won't get any sleep tonight.

    But is there an word on what the new LEGO Death Star looks like?

    Also, I love LEGO (not Legos, see I'm learning guys!!)

    Any feedback, good or bad, towards me or the set would be much appreciated.  Thank you, you're all wonderful and have been a very big help to me whether I have reciprocated that to each of you or not.  You're all special to me!
    Not so much as I have heard.. Interested to see if it is an updated version of the #10188 or if it is more like the DSII
  • CurvedRoadPlateCurvedRoadPlate Member Posts: 257
    Or the Star Killer base from the new movie
    madforLEGOkiki180703
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 2,338
    edited January 2016
    ^^ I am no expert but I would think that the way TLG has been making more and more sets play orientated than display only, that the new Death Star would be an updated version of #10188 with updated build techniques and mini figs as opposed to a big display set like #10143. I wouldn't mind being wrong though as I thought that both were great sets.
    FollowsCloselykiki180703
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    If it is the Star Killer base, I wonder if it will fall apart as easily as the one in the movie.

    SumoLegokiki180703Rainstorm26bandit778chuckpAmanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,055
    ^  Just shoot at the giant square target that is relatively undefended.
    Rainstorm26bandit778monstblitzDougoutAmanda1983
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    ^ and if you can't find the highly important, yet undefended spot then just ask someone who works in sanitation. 
    TheLoneTensorkiki180703Amanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,055
    ^ Who somehow ends up in a elite super-special forces unit and defects at precisely the most opportune time.

    Wait a minute!  I liked the movie!
    bandit778brumeytick1970Amanda1983
  • chaos215bar2chaos215bar2 California, USMember Posts: 3
    edited January 2016
    ^ To be fair, if you manage to squeeze the entire contents of a proportionately sized LEGO star inside your LEGO Starkiller Base, it will also probably fall apart pretty easily.
    FollowsCloselykiki180703bandit778Amanda1983
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 3,156
    CircleK said:
    ^ and if you can't find the highly important, yet undefended spot then just ask someone who works in sanitation. 

    That is completely true in all walks of life. When my place of 13 years employment was closing and I was made redundant, Trevor the cleaner saw it coming a mile off, he had more insight than the site director. Just yesterday at my new place we had a routine MHRA audit and Bernie the cleaner was full of opinions of what we could be doing better (employ a cleaner that doesn't spend all day watching daytime TV in the tearoom while pretending to clean it would be a start!).

    Would be quite keen to purchase a new DS if it wasn't too similar to 10188, they got the major scenes into the last one, if it is a plays etc I'm not sure how different it could really be.


    mmozzanoAmanda1983
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 192
    Any thought on the price of the #30320 polybag? This is my first year resseling so i dont have any idea on when to hold or when to sell. I have 60 of em :)) recently there was a price spoke but now its down again. I was hoping on selling them for 16+ gbp per poly
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    edited January 2016
    That's a nice poly to have multiple copies of. Here is some Bricklink pricing data:

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=30320-1&ColorID=0

  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    maybe more around 12 gbp
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited January 2016
    ^ To be fair, if you manage to squeeze the entire contents of a proportionately sized LEGO star inside your LEGO Starkiller Base, it will also probably fall apart pretty easily.
    Not to mention - you might create a black hole.  Then, you might have mini-LEGOS!
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 192
    ecmo47 said:
    That's a nice poly to have multiple copies of. Here is some Bricklink pricing data:

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=30320-1&ColorID=0

    I'm the one on bricklink with 59 of em :D what I'm wondering is should I lower the price or is there a possibility of the price rising? Long term I mean :)
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,758
    uriel said:
    ecmo47 said:
    That's a nice poly to have multiple copies of. Here is some Bricklink pricing data:

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=30320-1&ColorID=0

    I'm the one on bricklink with 59 of em :D what I'm wondering is should I lower the price or is there a possibility of the price rising? Long term I mean :)
    Like any retired set, I only see the price rising. There likely are not going to be any re-releases, even if another movie comes out.
  • urieluriel CroatiaMember Posts: 192
    yeah, thats what I thought. Dont need the money fast so I'll just hold steady :)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,362
    edited January 2016
    uriel said:
    ecmo47 said:
    That's a nice poly to have multiple copies of. Here is some Bricklink pricing data:

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=30320-1&ColorID=0

    I'm the one on bricklink with 59 of em :D what I'm wondering is should I lower the price or is there a possibility of the price rising? Long term I mean :)
    Like any retired set, I only see the price rising. There likely are not going to be any re-releases, even if another movie comes out.
    The only downside with polys is what happens if there is a large batch somewhere that was not given out for whatever reason, and they hit the market.  These are fairly rare. Is that because lego didn't make many, or because there are still loads sitting in boxes somewhere?

    It happened before with an expensive retired one (ADU walker). That was up at about £12 or so, and then a large batch appeared on ebay at £6, then more appeared and the price dropped further. Now it doesn't sell so well, even at £4-5.

    Especially if there is nothing current that people want to go with the poly, sales volume can be hit.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,362
    Evidence:

    Competition prize giveaway, Oct 2011.

    £16 delivered here ... (Dec 2012)
    http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/8531/for-sale-trade-adu-walker-30140-sealed-uk

    £4 (assuming £3 plus £1 postage) delivered here ... (April 2014)
    http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/14694/for-sale-30140-adu-walker

  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    edited January 2016
    ^In the UK gallimimus was a freebie with the game wasn't it?  Lego might find a batch to give away with the Daily Mail (or other paper), that's about the worst case scenario I guess.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,055
    It was a freebie with the Lego JW game, and was a TRU give-away item.
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