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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • scotty12scotty12 United States, IowaMember Posts: 738
    scotty12 said:
    I ordered a Tumbler from Target (because I had $75 worth of pts/gift cards to burn) and it arrived within 3 days (from IN).  It arrived in a 23x20x10.5 box...so there was no room side to side for it to move around and they had plenty of air pillows on top.  You just hope FedEx doesn't drop kick it to your door.
    Just wondering, how was the tape job?

    It was from Target..using their tape.....just fine.  The 'tape' on the Tumbler was fine also...nothing wrong with the box.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Adzbadboy said:
    When do you guys reckon the #75059 - Sandcrawler will be retired? I'm thinking of picking it up as my first UCS Star Wars set before it goes.
    When Ewok Village goes, you should start to pay attention to Sandcrawler and grab one soon after - IMHO.
    Legoboy
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,752
    scotty12 said:
    scotty12 said:
    I ordered a Tumbler from Target (because I had $75 worth of pts/gift cards to burn) and it arrived within 3 days (from IN).  It arrived in a 23x20x10.5 box...so there was no room side to side for it to move around and they had plenty of air pillows on top.  You just hope FedEx doesn't drop kick it to your door.
    Just wondering, how was the tape job?

    It was from Target..using their tape.....just fine.  The 'tape' on the Tumbler was fine also...nothing wrong with the box.
    Ah, the target tape on the outside of my boxes were in horrible shape- practically hanging open. I wondered if that was a common problem for target, so I could avoid them in the future.
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 1,025
    pharmjod said:
    Yeah I missed the boat on that one (ant man). I have one. I was literally thinking about buying 5-10 from targets site (had them in my cart) and the next time I looked a day or so later it was gone. it will hit $50 relatively quickly but I'm not sure from there where it goes.
    Yea, I was wondering about this set.  Three unique figures, two of which will most likely never be made again.  Also, upcoming marvel sets will include a micro ant man fig and a giant build but no sign of a regular minifig.  People are going to want that missing ant man minifig!
  • AustinPowersAustinPowers GermanyMember Posts: 278
    76039 still widely available over here for 24.99 € retail in many b&m stores as well as online at various outlets, including TRU. Doesn't seem to be very popular over here, as with many comic based sets. These either don't make it into stores here in the first place, or are quickly discounted, to get them off the shelves.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    My Tumblers from Target arrived in good shape. My only issue was the extra UPC sticker stuck on every set that needed to be carefully removed.
  • kwwhkwwh SingaporeMember Posts: 2
    Is mini cooper 10242 going to be retired soon?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Define "soon."


  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,281
    Not right now, sometime later.
    pharmjodPitfall69kiki180703DougoutAdeelZubairAmanda1983
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,813
    But not longer term.
    SumoLego
  • kwwhkwwh SingaporeMember Posts: 2
    Not a ready stock in stores in SG. So i think soon?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    kwwh said:
    Is mini cooper 10242 going to be retired soon?
    Now, where is that crystal ball?  Because I'm gonna need it to answer this one.  :-)

    Sorry to make fun, but when a set is retiring is one of the deepest, darkest secrets in all of LEGO.  Sure, someone at LEGO could tell you when a set was going to retire, but then they would have to kill you.  
    madforLEGOkiki180703DougoutbrumeyAmanda1983
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    I still think that most fall back to about a 2 year run, maybe give or take 6 months.
    At least that is what I consider most sets run at. I have about 2 years to get a set I want.
  • ToninhoToninho Northeast EnglandMember Posts: 6
    edited January 2016
    Has the VW Camper Van been retired? I only ask as it's not listed on the Lego online shop, but is still in the Lego stores. http://brickset.com/sets/10220-1/Volkswagen-T1-Camper-Van

    [edit]

    I'm talking about the UK here, I know it's online in other countries still.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    It is there it's just out of stock and not listed as an exclusive anymore
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    non-exclusive?  Does that mean we can see it discounted in the future?

    Target has it listed above RRP which usually doesn't happen unless they are low on stock or the set is near retirement.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 931
    In the uk its avilable at Lego, john lewis and toys r us so that's not been an exclusive for a few years in my eyes
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Oh, ok
    It is listed as an exclusive on US [email protected]  All the big sets start off only at Lego and then go to other places.  I guess when they show up elsewhere is when they aren't considered exclusive anymore.  Ghostbusters Headquarters and Brick Bank are currently listed as exclusives above their default image on [email protected] since they were both just released.
  • AustinPowersAustinPowers GermanyMember Posts: 278
    edited January 2016
    Seems that Lego has "un-exclusived" some other sets too. At least here in Germany, both Wall-E and the Creator Ferris Wheel, formally Lego "exclusives" are now available at Kaufhof too, which is a normal retail chain that also sells the modulars and other "ideas" sets like BBT and GB Ecto 1. Wall-E and the Ferris Wheel are new to their lineup.

    By the way, the VW Camper Van is non-exclusive in Germany too, available at several large standard retailers (Kaufhof, TRU, Idee&Spiel, etc.), and has been so since almost from the get-go.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    That doesn't really doesn't affect anything.  Lego double-dips on the term "exclusive."  Sometimes they mean it to be "Sold only at one retailer" which actually means, "Sold only at one retailer...and the Lego store.

    They also use the term to ringfence a group of models so as to embargo them from discounting in places like the US.  Most "exclusives" (Ferris Wheel, VW Camper, etc.) are available at multiple retailers, but are barred from being discounted.
    madforLEGOPitfall69dougtskiki180703Amanda1983
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366

    ^ I think @TheLoneTensor hit it on the head. "Exclusive" doesn't necessarily mean it's only sold through LEGO, it really just stops it from being discounted. I got all my modular buildings through Amazon and my Death Star through Target. That said, I didn't get the Death Star through an actual Target, but their website.

    As for the no discounting, Target was having 20% off Star Wars LEGO at the time, so I did get that discount. But since the discount wasn't just a mark down on the Death Star itself, I guess that's okay. Fine with me. 20% off, then 5% Red Card discount plus free shipping.

    Rainstorm26Pitfall69FollowsCloselykiki180703Amanda1983
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited January 2016
    Wow, that new batcave is super expensive.  #6860 should still be a good alternative, although I doubt the price will get past $130 with the amount in the aftermarket.
    madforLEGOkiki180703
  • rlangston77rlangston77 USAMember Posts: 30
    What are peoples thoughts on Parisian Restaurant - 10243 retiring any time soon along with Pet Shop - 10218?  I heard a rumor on another forum that it, along with Pet Shop were being retired in Quarter 1 or 2 of this year. 

    Pet Shop makes sense, and I'm just waiting for that to retire, it's now the longest running lifetime of any city modular they've released.  Town Hall was also retired in a shorter time span than Parisian so it's possible, but Parisian seems to be super popular so it would surprise me.
  • legomentallegomental UkMember Posts: 346
    What are peoples thoughts on Parisian Restaurant - 10243 retiring any time soon along with Pet Shop - 10218?  I heard a rumor on another forum that it, along with Pet Shop were being retired in Quarter 1 or 2 of this year. 

    Pet Shop makes sense, and I'm just waiting for that to retire, it's now the longest running lifetime of any city modular they've released.  Town Hall was also retired in a shorter time span than Parisian so it's possible, but Parisian seems to be super popular so it would surprise me.
    Really hope not as I haven't bought it yet!
  • AustinPowersAustinPowers GermanyMember Posts: 278
    They also use the term to ringfence a group of models so as to embargo them from discounting in places like the US.  Most "exclusives" (Ferris Wheel, VW Camper, etc.) are available at multiple retailers, but are barred from being discounted.
    That's the difference over here. As soon as these "exclusives" are available at normal retailers, there is nothing to stop them discounting these sets. Actually I just bought Wall-E with a 20% discount that way. Unfortunately I already got the Ferris Wheel at Lego [email protected] for RRP as I thought it wouldn't be made available anywhere else.
    But I am willing to learn. I will wait for the GB Firehouse to appear at Kaufhof, and then get it with 20% discount at the next opportunity ;-)
    Lego91Amanda1983
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    No you are right, it may have a decent piece count but the look of it does not look like a $270 set
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    Dougout said:
    Wow, that new batcave is super expensive.  #6860 should still be a good alternative, although I doubt the price will get past $130 with the amount in the aftermarket.
    Wow...  $270 for THAT?

    WHY?

    Maybe I'm out of touch, but I look at that, even as a lover of LEGO, and think "holy crap that is overpriced".

    Am I alone?

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Batman-Classic-TV-Series-Batcave-76052
    Nope there is another thread where we are lamenting the cost of the new 'classic' batcave:
    http://bricksetforum.com/discussion/22381/76052-batman-classic-tv-series-batcave#latest

    Amanda1983
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Dougout said:
    Wow, that new batcave is super expensive.  #6860 should still be a good alternative, although I doubt the price will get past $130 with the amount in the aftermarket.
    Wow...  $270 for THAT?

    WHY?

    Maybe I'm out of touch, but I look at that, even as a lover of LEGO, and think "holy crap that is overpriced".

    Am I alone?

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Batman-Classic-TV-Series-Batcave-76052
    no, you are not alone.  It seems the general consensus around here is that the set is horribly overpriced.  But really, it's just continuing the trend. I think LEGO is going to keep jacking up the price/mass ratio on sets until there is some sign of sales slowing down. Unfortunately it doesn't seem to be happening yet.  And it is really a double whammy, because sales (exclusives and otherwise) are much less frequent and generous than they used to be. 

    Combine the price jacking with the sales reduction, and I feel like I'm effectively paying almost double now for the same amount of material as I was just 3-4 years ago.
    madforLEGOBumblepantsDadkiki180703Amanda1983
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,485
    edited January 2016
    What are peoples thoughts on Parisian Restaurant - 10243 retiring any time soon along with Pet Shop - 10218?  I heard a rumor on another forum that it, along with Pet Shop were being retired in Quarter 1 or 2 of this year. 

    Pet Shop makes sense, and I'm just waiting for that to retire, it's now the longest running lifetime of any city modular they've released.  Town Hall was also retired in a shorter time span than Parisian so it's possible, but Parisian seems to be super popular so it would surprise me.
    Really hope not as I haven't bought it yet!
    The Palace Cinema must surely retire before Parisian Restaurant... I'm going to hazard a guess and say that they'll retire PC, then PR and keep PS going, as it's a nice, simple, straightforward, easily mod-able building that people will always want - and possibly want more than one of, to make a street.

    As evidence, I cite the post by @Briking about 1/3 down p58 in the thread "What are you building right now?"

    :-)
  • rlangston77rlangston77 USAMember Posts: 30
    Isn't Pet Shop the only city modular to not have received a box redesign?  Trying to find the article I read about this from a few weeks ago.  Anyone know?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Zon said:
    It looks like #76039 is done after a very short ~6 months (sold out in red in the US and listed as retired on [email protected] GB).  A little crazy that it was available such a short time - seems like it should do well down the road.
    I saw one in Toys R Us and one in Walmart.  This is gone gone online, but if you want it, you might get lucky if you look locally, quickly.
    madforLEGOkiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    What are peoples thoughts on Parisian Restaurant - 10243 retiring any time soon along with Pet Shop - 10218?  I heard a rumor on another forum that it, along with Pet Shop were being retired in Quarter 1 or 2 of this year. 

    Pet Shop makes sense, and I'm just waiting for that to retire, it's now the longest running lifetime of any city modular they've released.  Town Hall was also retired in a shorter time span than Parisian so it's possible, but Parisian seems to be super popular so it would surprise me.
    Really hope not as I haven't bought it yet!
    The Palace Cinema must surely retire before Parisian Restaurant... I'm going to hazard a guess and say that they'll retire PC, then PR and keep PS going, as it's a nice, simple, straightforward, easily mod-able building that people will always want - and possibly want more than one of, to make a street.

    As evidence, I cite the post by @Briking about 1/3 down p58 in the thread "What are you building right now?"

    :-)
    Until I see differently, I would not assume LEGO is keeping the PS around any longer past this year (if it is not on 'borrowed time' now), otherwise you will likely be looking back saying 'why didn't I buy the Pet Shop when it was available?'

    Until LEGO actually changes their habits I see it as no different that in the past: earliest one released is the next one to go (and IMO TH was an exception to the rule and not the new rule): So PS, PC, PR, DT....etc.
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,485
    edited January 2016
    @madforLEGO yes, I think you're probably right, but if there is any one modular that they're likely to keep, due to its "utility", PS would be the one, I would say.
    Of course, it'll probably go tomorrow. ;-)
    Either way, PC is sure to go before PR.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    @madforLEGO yes, I think you're probably right, but if there is any one modular that they're likely to keep, due to its "utility", PS would be the one, I would say.
    Of course, it'll probably go tomorrow. ;-)
    Either way, PC is sure to go before PR.
    If PS does not go in the next few months Im guessing they likely go at the same time at the end of this year; I just do not see PC going before PS.
  • rlangston77rlangston77 USAMember Posts: 30
    What are your guys thoughts on investing in possibly retiring Lego Minecraft sets?  I heard a rumor that the Lego Minecraft: The Mine was retiring soon.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^Investing in the old $35 Minecraft set was a bad idea, so I'm staying away from them personally.  Only investing in what I love and appreciate hence my pile of DeLoreans.
    FollowsCloselykiki180703
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,485
    edited January 2016
    It wouldn't surprise me if #21118 The Mine has already retired. I haven't seen it on [email protected] for a while now.
    Personally, I love the theme, but I've not idea how well it sells, apart from the fact that there do always seem to be a healthy number of sets on eBay, for example.
    If you go by how often it is discussed on BrickSet or Eurobricks, you'd probably come to the conclusion that no one buys it at all! ;-)
    I wouldn't think that they would be good investments though, as they just aren't popular with AFOLs, which is where you'd make any substantial gains.

    Edited to add:
    Ah, it has been retired. See here:
    http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/The-Mine-21118

    It's a shame, as it's a great set.
  • crnkcrnk Member Posts: 6
    A few thoughts:
    All 5 of the current modulars were in the US catalog.  I'm not sure exactly what that means but I would expect that none would disappear for at least a couple more months.
    #21118 does look interesting as a discontinued that you can buy below RRP.  I like to use bricklink to see what the market is and this one really confuses me.  Priced in USD (which correlates pretty heavily with US stores), there are 26, and 20 of those are RRP  or below.  Sales have been 1 new and 2 used in the last 6 months.  Over in the EU there are 26 for sale and 118(!!) sold in the last 6 months.  Some of those are obviously resellers or something along those lines, but the sales activity still looks lively from my perspective.  Also, while I have little interest in parting out, it seems to have decent minifig value and it does have a lot of bricks and tiles that I could utilize...
  • rlangston77rlangston77 USAMember Posts: 30
    Yep looks to be retired.  I agree with you, I don't think it will grow much in value, especially if the popularity of minecraft dies off.
  • legomentallegomental UkMember Posts: 346
    @madforLEGO yes, I think you're probably right, but if there is any one modular that they're likely to keep, due to its "utility", PS would be the one, I would say.
    Of course, it'll probably go tomorrow. ;-)
    Either way, PC is sure to go before PR.
    Please be right!
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    edited January 2016
    at some point soon the price gap between PC/PS and the newer mods will have to come into play for LEGO.  They will need to either retire them or change the price.
    pharmjodkiki180703
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    My opinion is minecraft is garbage for a long term investment.  The only thing my kids like more than Lego is minecraft  there have been several of the minecraft sets sitting untouched after I picked them up this summer.  They just have no interest in building them and I don't see that as being an adult driven post EOL theme.

    SumoLegoFollowsCloselyBumblepantskiki180703
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,281
    I still don't understand the appeal of Lego Minecraft.  

    If you like Minecraft, I'm not sure why one would want to build models or play with action figures - the game itself is building and adventuring in a virtual world.

    I see them as popular but disposable.
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,167
    I think Angry Birds is in the same ballpark as Minecraft and it is only about to come out now. I just see kids getting Angry bird sets and thinking: 'this was great.... two years ago'
    CircleKwagnerml2kiki180703
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    Or saying that in the store before they even buy them....it's possible the movie if done well could regenerate some interest, but they face two challenges:

    1 - getting people in the door because it's not relevant anymore.

    2 - creating a movie based off a mobile game that is any good.
    Amanda1983
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,813
    Why does the movie have to be good? People watch crap movies all the time.
    VorpalRyubinaryeyeAanchirkiki180703Amanda1983
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    Star Wars - general consensus it was good....sold tons of lego

    lone ranger a general consensus it was not good...  Poor Lego sales.

    i can't believe I actually had to explain that
    SprinkleOtterkiki180703
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