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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Fair point.  I would suggest that the Classic Space aspects* of Exo-Suit create similar interest among the fans of Classic Space.  While a much smaller population than that of a movie fan base, most fans of Classic Space are interested in buying LEGO.

    * It's not Classic Space.  But it's about as close as we can expect to get from LEGO these days.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2015

    goshe7 said:

    And with respect to predicting good resale value, I believe the honest opinion is that resellers aim to win (big return) more frequently than they lose (minimal return to loss), but nobody can consistently "win" without also "losing". 
    This is a strange paragraph, and I don't really follow, but I will say that anyone that doesn't aim to overall win more frequently than they lose is not going to last very long.  That being written, it's quite possible to win the overall war while suffering a few lost battles.
    goshe7 said:

    If you want to really complicate it, some of the surprising "winners" have emerged from the sets that the general population of resellers have ignored or shunned.  BTTF is a great example.  Nobody I recall was predicting Gallimimus Trap to be such a hit.   It took a few months for the reseller masses to realize the demand for much of the JW line.
    This is really untrue.  The Gallimimus trap was always popular.  The largest sets have been consistently unavailable, and now the whole line is rare.  Anyone who didn't see this coming wasn't paying much attention.  If by "Nobody was predicting" means you didn't see tons of notes on Brickset, maybe that's true.  Regardless, that's only one measurement.  Again, anyone watching sold-prices on these things knew there was a market long ago.

    Also, BTTF wasn't shunned, ever, except maybe by those that again, aren't paying attention.  I'm guessing these same folks are shunning the currently available Ecto-1 too.
    goshe7 said:

    ...the resller mass...
    ...many resellers...
    ...resellers...
    ...the general population of resellers...
    ...the reseller masses...
    Resellers are not a mass, any more than any other group is.  There are individuals who are good at what they do, especially as it applies to their situation.  Then, there are others that are...less so.  You need to move away from lumping them into a faceless mass.  Also, resellers are only one (small) piece of the overall market puzzle which also includes Lego, retailers and the end user.
    goshe7 said:

    So I propose the question...what do you think the future of Exo-Suit looks like?  
    It looks like crap. :)
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,419
    Crap = Flat sales, close to original retail prices.
    roxiokiki180703Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,236
    ^^ lovely set that appears to have been overproduced. Might do OK if there is a new classic space theme with no green suits.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515

    goshe7 said:

    And with respect to predicting good resale value, I believe the honest opinion is that resellers aim to win (big return) more frequently than they lose (minimal return to loss), but nobody can consistently "win" without also "losing". 
    This is a strange paragraph, and I don't really follow, but I will say that anyone that doesn't aim to overall win more frequently than they lose is not going to last very long.  That being written, it's quite possible to win the overall war while suffering a few lost battles.
    What I was trying to convey is that it seems like I read many, many more posts about all the wins and about how almost every set will be an aftermarket success.  I was just interjecting the reality that any reseller unique individual, regardless of how successful he has been, will occasionally miss.  It should be obvious, I know.


    goshe7 said:

    If you want to really complicate it, some of the surprising "winners" have emerged from the sets that the general population of resellers have ignored or shunned.  BTTF is a great example.  Nobody I recall was predicting Gallimimus Trap to be such a hit.   It took a few months for the reseller masses to realize the demand for much of the JW line.
    This is really untrue.  The Gallimimus trap was always popular.  The largest sets have been consistently unavailable, and now the whole line is rare.  Anyone who didn't see this coming wasn't paying much attention.  If by "Nobody was predicting" means you didn't see tons of notes on Brickset, maybe that's true.  Regardless, that's only one measurement.  Again, anyone watching sold-prices on these things knew there was a market long ago.

    Also, BTTF wasn't shunned, ever, except maybe by those that again, aren't paying attention.  I'm guessing these same folks are shunning the currently available Ecto-1 too.
    What is untrue?  I was able to purchase Indominus Rex at retail into August, about 2.5 months after release.  Similar for the other large sets in JW.  So while there may have been individuals that recognized the potential success from day one and were buying up, there were not sufficient individuals to deplete local inventory.  

    I frequent a number of LEGO sites, so "nobody I recall" includes those on bricksetforum, brickpicker, bricklink, brickowl, fbtb, and toysnbricks.  I could be overlooking the posts where people predicted 4x retail would be realized within months.  If so, please point them out.

    Look back on posts about BTTF (here and elsewhere) and you will likely find a range of opinions.  I'll find posts that support shunned and you'll find posts that support the incompetence of those opinions. 

    Resellers are not a mass, any more than any other group is.  There are individuals who are good at what they do, especially as it applies to their situation.  Then, there are others that are...less so.  You need to move away from lumping them into a faceless mass.  Also, resellers are only one (small) piece of the overall market puzzle which also includes Lego, retailers and the end user.
    Each post in this 569 page thread should be celebrated for its unique contribution to society.  And the combined 569 pages of posts are a faceless mass.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2015
    Yeah, but you're drawing conclusions based on some kind of amalgamated mess of resellers as a result, instead of letting the research of individual sets do the talking (see @pharmjod and his observation that the Exo-suit and the DeLorean are two completely different beasts).  You can't do that, otherwise we'd all be reveling in our Medieval Market Village investments.

    Btw, you stating that "Nobody I recall was predicting Gallimimus Trap to be such a hit.   It took a few months for the reseller masses to realize the demand for much of the JW line." was the untrue part, because most observant resellers were well aware of the potential of the line, including the poly.

    CCC said:
    ^^ lovely set that appears to have been overproduced. Might do OK if there is a new classic space theme with no green suits.
    I was answering the question on the future of the Exo-suit as an investment.  I wasn't making a comment on the style or coolness of the set itself.
    CCCkiki180703
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Yeah, but you're drawing conclusions based on some kind of amalgamated mess of resellers as a result, instead of letting the research of individual sets do the talking (see @pharmjod and his observation that the Exo-suit and the DeLorean are two completely different beasts).  You can't do that, otherwise we'd all be reveling in our Medieval Market Village investments.

    Btw, you stating that "Nobody I recall was predicting Gallimimus Trap to be such a hit.   It took a few months for the reseller masses to realize the demand for much of the JW line." was the untrue part, because most observant resellers were well aware of the potential of the line, including the poly.

    Which conclusions?  That there is a mess of resellers who each have their own approach and criteria for success, who express their individual opinions, and among such a diverse population there will be a variety of opinions of which some are bound to be great and some are bound to be crap?

    Yes, you are precisely right.  The resellers were mostly observant for the first few months of JW availability.  Exactly like I said.  
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,236
    Yeah, but you're drawing conclusions based on some kind of amalgamated mess of resellers as a result, instead of letting the research of individual sets do the talking (see @pharmjod and his observation that the Exo-suit and the DeLorean are two completely different beasts).  You can't do that, otherwise we'd all be reveling in our Medieval Market Village investments.

    Btw, you stating that "Nobody I recall was predicting Gallimimus Trap to be such a hit.   It took a few months for the reseller masses to realize the demand for much of the JW line." was the untrue part, because most observant resellers were well aware of the potential of the line, including the poly.

    CCC said:
    ^^ lovely set that appears to have been overproduced. Might do OK if there is a new classic space theme with no green suits.
    I was answering the question on the future of the Exo-suit as an investment.  I wasn't making a comment on the style or coolness of the set itself.
    It wasn't aimed at you, I didn't realise there was another page. It was aimed at the question about how well exosuit will do.

    As to the win vs lose for resellers there is a whole spectrum of what could be considered wins and losses here.  Of course any decent reseller will win more than they lose, or they wouldn't be in the game any more. I don't think I've ever lost money on a Lego investment. Some may have taken longer than I had hoped to make a profit, but at least I didn't lose money after fees. However, I am fairly conservative buying only on large discount or dead certs. While all my actual investments can be considered wins, I reckon I have lots of losses from not investing in slightly riskier sets when I probably should have.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,883
    Just a couple points on the availabilty issues of the sets being argued here.

    Gallimimus Trap - Limited availability. I never saw the set available at a store (TRU mainly I believe). A JW poly with a dino? That's a no-brainer. I would have bought 50 if I could have. But those were gobbled up fast. So for many of us, there was never an ounce of opportunity to get this.

    DeLorean - Widely available online, even at discounts. But I think this one flew under the radar because it wasn't physically available in retail stores. The retail websites had them, but it I think the lack of a physical presence was a factor in the limited stock by resellers. And the resulting subsequent rise in value this fall happened just as the 30th anniversary celebration was taking place too. Nice timing.

    Exo-Suit - Widely available, overstocked, overbought. Nightmare for everybody, LEGO and resellers combined. You' have to hold onto this set for 10 years+ to double your money.



    pharmjodAmanda1983
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    ^Haha I almost made a substantial investment into the Exo Suit. I just bought 2; one to build and one to keep sealed.
    kiki180703
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,419
    Isn't it about to be de-commissioned?
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Anyone had any luck with finding #70413 Brick Bounty on their post Christmas travels?  I had one on my christmas list, thought I was getting it and passed on a bunch.  Wasn't looking for resale, just one to build.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    ^ have you used fyndly or brickseek to check target inventory?   Many reports of being found at $70 and a couple found $50.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    Tumbler & X-wing are sold out at [email protected] in Germany.
  • Ebertm55Ebertm55 London ukMember Posts: 15
    I was lucky to get a thumbler and red five xwing on boxing day. There was one last red five left after I picked one up. Loads of thumblers however. 
  • Ebertm55Ebertm55 London ukMember Posts: 15
    The thumbler didn't last long at all. Last time I leave it so last min. I guess not everyone is surprised it's gone though. I think it's a good set but it was always readily available. What with a new film coming out I guess we will see a lot more similar related sets.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    ^^ I also grabbed the tumbler 2 weeks ago. Saw it was marked as retiring soon and din't want to miss it like I did the Seacow.

    I'm eager to see where the new tires will be used next - if at all!
  • Ebertm55Ebertm55 London ukMember Posts: 15
    I kept thinking about the seacow but just didn't like it. I thought about buying one to resale when it goes but I only buy sets I personally like other wise I'll end up just buying almost everything. I'm still shocked the vw camper van has no mention or signs of going along with the pet shop. That tower Bridge is hanging on as well. 
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    My guess is they are good sellers. The camper and tower bridge both got new redesigned boxes, so they may still be around for a while longer.

    Does anyone know what the difference is between the 2 different Campers you can select at [email protected]?



  • Ebertm55Ebertm55 London ukMember Posts: 15
    When you select the one ending 520 it comes up as retired. I checked this on the uk Lego site. My guess would be that's the version with the old box design. There appears to be no change in piece count. If anyone else knows differently I would love to know as well. 
  • tallblocktootallblocktoo CanadaMember Posts: 497
    tecjam said:
    ^^ I also grabbed the tumbler 2 weeks ago. Saw it was marked as retiring soon and din't want to miss it like I did the Seacow.

    I'm eager to see where the new tires will be used next - if at all!
    According to Sariel's Lego Technic Den review the new Technic set 42050 Drag Racer uses these tires. 
    tecjam
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    edited December 2015
    Gosh! The Tumbler #76023 is marked as Retired product in the UK. I'm really pleased I picked two up from Smyths only a couple of weeks ago.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255

    According to Sariel's Lego Technic Den review the new Technic set 42050 Drag Racer uses these tires. 
    Thanks, that looks correct! I can finally build the bat-pod without having to sacrifice the tumbler for it.



    tallblocktoo
  • JetWing34JetWing34 Michigan, USAMember Posts: 38
    Gosh! The Tumbler #76023 is marked as Retired product in the UK. I'm really pleased I picked two up from Smyths only a couple of weeks ago.
    Hmm, not in the United States for me. Amazon and Target has the set in stock, with a source from Brickseek.
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    edited December 2015
    Ahem,So , read up on the brick bank review and noted that the it's the Palace Cenima that's missing in the line up (At the back of the box )and Not Pet Shop.

    I find this highly suggestive. PC waiting for the hammer to fall ?? 
  • tick1970tick1970 LondonMember Posts: 117
    Wanted to see what people thought of #70756 Dojo showdown. Toyrus exclusive in UK And sold out in Lego shop and just about retired? For a 2015 set of a big theme seems quite quick to retire? Good investment? 
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,303
    @Vortex, each of the street layout shots on the back of PC, PS, PR & DO only have one corner set, so there is a remote possibility it's just the standard formula for that shot to have only one corner set. Then again, it could well be a sign that PC is slated for retirement soonish.
    xiahna
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,113
    Another thought Re: Pet Shop: The new Brick Bank has a lot of the same sand blue elements. Makes sense they keep sets with same parts alive at the same time so I think Pet Shop has legs for awhile yet.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,512
    edited December 2015
    JetWing34 said:
    Gosh! The Tumbler #76023 is marked as Retired product in the UK. I'm really pleased I picked two up from Smyths only a couple of weeks ago.
    Hmm, not in the United States for me. Amazon and Target has the set in stock, with a source from Brickseek.
    Yeah, but many times when stuff gets discontinued 'overseas' the US likely has limited stocks, or only maybe one more run in them.

    Another thought Re: Pet Shop: The new Brick Bank has a lot of the same sand blue elements. Makes sense they keep sets with same parts alive at the same time so I think Pet Shop has legs for awhile yet.

    I see what you are saying, but I do not think current part selection has much to do if a set stays or goes. Also you can flip that thinking around to say that if a new set is being made using those colors it could mean they need to divert all of those colors to the new line which means the old line using those colors goes.
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,742
    SumoLego said:
    All of the TFA SW sets are basically gone in Upstate NY TRUs.
    Just wondering, which part of Upstate are you talking? I may have seen you in my visits to TRU...
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,419
    Buffalo/Rochester area.  Although I have spies that spend most of the time in the stores.  
    VorpalRyukiki180703FollowsCloselyCoolguy5000
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,742
    Ah, I'm not likely to have seen you then- I'm more Syracuse way, though I have been known to visit both of those places for sets.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    I have always hated the term "Upstate" New York; It is so vague. Buffalo/Rochester is western New York, Syracuse is Central New York...I grew up in the Capital Region.
    kiki180703SumoLego
  • SprinkleOtterSprinkleOtter Member Posts: 2,742
    ^ It beats saying "New York" and everyone assuming you live on an island...
    kiki180703SumoLegoFollowsClosely
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 369
    I grew up in the Capital Region too, then went to school near the Canadian border.  People there took offense at my saying I was from "Upstate". :)
    kiki180703Pitfall69SumoLego
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,419
    I take offense when people assume I can see the Freedom Tower or Statue of Liberty from my house.

    (I keep it simple and say I live near Niagara Falls - might as well be Ohio or Canada.)
    VorpalRyukiki180703tallblocktooexciter1Amanda1983
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    SumoLego said:
    I take offense when people assume I can see the Freedom Tower or Statue of Liberty from my house.


    Wait, but you live in NY, this must be because your windows point the wrong way right, so you must be able to see Times Square... Do the lights keep you awake at night?

    khmellymelkiki180703SumoLego
  • 12651265 Member Posts: 946
    MrJ_NY said:
    @SumoLego  If Sarah Palin can see Russia from her house how are you possibly unable to see NYC,maybe it's the glasses
    Just to set the record, Tina Fey said that.
    FollowsClosely
  • AdzbadboyAdzbadboy London, UKMember Posts: 2,626
    Anyone noticed that all the current 'Modular Buildings' are present in the January 2016 (US) catalogue including the #10218 Pet Shop and #10232 Palace Cinema. Does that mean both will be available in 2016?
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    will green grocer or 1x8 sand greens ever get cheaper ?
    pharmjodkiki180703
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,113
    ^if they decide to produce 1x8s in sand green again the price will plummet. Green Grocer will keep going up.
    preverekiki180703madforLEGO
  • Patrik78Patrik78 Member Posts: 142
    They should re-release GG and CC updated with better interiors. That is my wish and future plan how to get these sets :)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,883
    How about just producing the rare colored bricks for collectors to source a gg or cc? That way you're not holding up the yearly modular slots on reissues.
    pharmjodbrumey
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,642
    They could also include some in new sets, the designer for #10235 Winter Village Market mentioned that the Dark Blue Arches were reintroduced in that set based on fans bricklinking "old" modulars.
    FollowsCloselyCCC
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    edited December 2015
    SumoLego said:
    I take offense when people assume I can see the Freedom Tower or Statue of Liberty from my house.

    (I keep it simple and say I live near Niagara Falls - might as well be Ohio or Canada.)
    Try living in Southern Illinois.  People forget that there is 350 miles of Illinois south of Chicago.
    kiki180703SumoLegoBuriedinBricksbinaryeyeZathrasAmanda1983
  • KazJYKazJY Member Posts: 67
    edited December 2015


    Try living in Southern Illinois.  People forget that there is 350 miles of Illinois south of Chicago.

    I am in the Chicago burbs. I had to realize that when driving home from New Orleans: "hey, we are in IL!" and 7 hours later we got home.

    kiki180703wagnerml2khmellymelAmanda1983
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    prevere said:
    How about just producing the rare colored bricks for collectors to source a gg or cc? That way you're not holding up the yearly modular slots on reissues.
    Honestly, how much money does it cost for the proper amount of Sand Green 1×8's?
  • ColoradoBricksColoradoBricks Denver, CO, USAMember Posts: 1,642
    ^ Right now $200+S&H (50 at $4) with a seller with enough quantity
    cloaked7
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