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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • xwingpilotxwingpilot UKMember Posts: 797
    #10240 is still available on UK [email protected] but marked 'hard to find' and 'retiring soon'.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    CircleK said:
    Ive been meaning to ask about #10240 Red Five - Was it expected to go this year? [email protected] has been sold out for awhile now. 

    I bought one last minute when Amazon got them back in stock a few weeks ago. I kind of want to collect select UCS sets, but I really don't have the space to properly display them. So it was a "Do not open until you get a bigger house" kind of purchase. I have a lot of those. I usually end up selling them. 
    I have quite a few of those as well, but with no intention of selling. The ones that come to mind are Red Five, Slave I, Grand Emporium, and the Tumbler. 

    My fiance and I were trying to find a house, but nothing materialized so we're renewing our apartment lease for a year. Since our roommate decided she wanted out and we don't feel like moving, we'll have a spare bedroom we can use. That is probably going to become our Lego room. 

    When it finally comes time to move though, moving all of it will not be fun.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,019
    CircleK said:
    Ive been meaning to ask about #10240 Red Five - Was it expected to go this year? [email protected] has been sold out for awhile now. 

    I bought one last minute when Amazon got them back in stock a few weeks ago. I kind of want to collect select UCS sets, but I really don't have the space to properly display them. So it was a "Do not open until you get a bigger house" kind of purchase. I have a lot of those. I usually end up selling them. 
    I have quite a few of those as well, but with no intention of selling. The ones that come to mind are Red Five, Slave I, Grand Emporium, and the Tumbler. 

    My fiance and I were trying to find a house, but nothing materialized so we're renewing our apartment lease for a year. Since our roommate decided she wanted out and we don't feel like moving, we'll have a spare bedroom we can use. That is probably going to become our Lego room. 

    When it finally comes time to move though, moving all of it will not be fun.
    I share that dread, I am very close to starting to look for a house and am determined to get out of my apartment as I am tired of the noisiness of apartment life. I know moving all of my LEGO will be a chore though which is why most of my LEGO is still in their boxes.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    We were trying to find something before our current lease was up, but nothing materialized. It's rather difficult when you have to go through FHA financing.

    We decided it might be better to just renew, keep looking, and suffer the one time fee to break the lease if we do find something. It also gives us a chance to save up some for a down payment and get the credit card payed down which still has a good chunk of the initial moving expenses on it.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    We own a four bedroom home and had it before we had children. So I used to have a whopping three spare bedrooms and one was completely dedicated to Lego. Those were the days...

    Two kids later and things are feeling a little tight. I still have a remaining spare but it is my home office and there's just not a lot of available room for display. Sadly, most of my Lego is now boxed away in the basement. 

    I just need one more room. A rec room, bonus room, loft, whatever. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,019
    CircleK said:
    We own a four bedroom home and had it before we had children. So I used to have a whopping three spare bedrooms and one was completely dedicated to Lego. Those were the days...

    Two kids later and things are feeling a little tight. I still have a remaining spare but it is my home office and there's just not a lot of available room for display. Sadly, most of my Lego is now boxed away in the basement. 

    I just need one more room. A rec room, bonus room, loft, whatever. 
    Yeah hoping to get a house with 3 bedrooms and a full basement for a master bedroom, a room for me, a room for my GF, and the basement for the LEGO MOC display (as I really want a room for a home office), but I guess I will see if I can find that for a good price in my area. I just know I have a ton of LEGO sets to build and really want to build them without feeling like I have to dismantle them to move again.

  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    We had actually settled on two houses to try and get, but ran into problems with both.

    With the first one, it turned out the septic tank was too close to the well. FHA requires 100 feet, and it was only at 60 feet.

    The other one tripped us up because it was in a commercial zone, and even though it should meet FHA guidelines (less than 51% is for commercial use, listed Legal Non-Conforming) apparently FHA just sort of denies anything in a commercial zone.

    Yeah, I'm not looking forward to moving all my Lego once it's built and we finally move, but I also don't want to just have the stuff I really want to build sitting in a box for another year or more.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Personally, I feel a bit vindicated predicting the Tumbler would go by years end back on March 8th, and having my buttocks handed back to me for saying so. It was a long-shot, but I'm not surprised. I may have to pick up another...

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/comment/342681/#Comment_342681
    SumoLegoBrickDancerjuggles7
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Don't beat yourself up too much.  LEGO is all over the place with the retirement of sets.  There's no rhyme or reason with some sets.  For some sets, I think they make an initial retirement date, but may adjust it dependent on how well a set is selling, inventories, etc.  At times I think LEGO doesn't even know with 100% accuracy when a set will retire.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,791
    (I don't think the DS has officially retired just yet...)
    kiki180703
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    CircleK said:
    Ive been meaning to ask about #10240 Red Five - Was it expected to go this year? [email protected] has been sold out for awhile now. 

    I bought one last minute when Amazon got them back in stock a few weeks ago. I kind of want to collect select UCS sets, but I really don't have the space to properly display them. So it was a "Do not open until you get a bigger house" kind of purchase. I have a lot of those. I usually end up selling them. 
    Haha, everything Lego has released from the beginning of 2014 on is a "do not open till I get a house" type deal.  That won't be for a long time so looks like I'm going to be piling boxes and putting off purchases for the next 4-5 years.  Then considering I'm attracted to pretty much ALL the exclusives and ALL the technics now among a ton of other stuff, it's going to get rough.  I'm also interested in Mindstorms too.  I used them in my robotics class and it turns out they are way cooler than I thought.
  • tick1970tick1970 LondonMember Posts: 117
    It might be somewhere else on the forums but does anyone have a source for how many of each set Lego produces, to see if can find trends on retirement?
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    edited December 2015
    tick1970 said:
    It might be somewhere else on the forums but does anyone have a source for how many of each set Lego produces, to see if can find trends on retirement?
    Pretty sure that data is not released. Even if it was, I don't know how useful it would be. A lot of decisions go into continuing to produce a set beyond "we already made x many copies of this, let's do something else." If it's still selling, LEGO has proven they will continue to make it available.

    Retirement trends are nearly impossible to figure out. It used to be "two years" was a good guideline before set's life ended, but that's gone out the window in the last 3-4 years or so.
    goshe7kiki180703dougtsmadforLEGO
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366

    Add that to the fact that we have no idea what happens to most of those sets regardless of how many get produced. Yes, a set with only 100 copies is rarer than one with 200, but what if only 1 of the set with 200 survives in its original, sealed-in-box condition while 50 of the set with 100 are carefully stored for safe keeping.

    kiki180703VorpalRyuSumoLegodougtsBuriedinBricks
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,633
    tick1970 said:
    It might be somewhere else on the forums but does anyone have a source for how many of each set Lego produces, to see if can find trends on retirement?
    You won't find any meaningful trendsthat allow you to predict the future. All sets and series are slightly different no matter how similar they seem. A better indicator of future resale is gut instinct combined with how current sets are selling, how people are talking about them, etc.
    VorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,791
    I say, dartboard, blindfold and dumb luck.
    kiki180703Bricklover18exciter1VorpalRyu
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,903

    tick1970 said:
    It might be somewhere else on the forums but does anyone have a source for how many of each set Lego produces, to see if can find trends on retirement?
    I don't know of any specific numbers, but according to @Nabii (Mark Stafford) in the comments to this article from January 2013, "Cuusoo sets are produced in batches of 10/20,000 whereas retail LEGO sets are produced with a minimum of half a million sets each." No telling whether those numbers have changed since then or what the numbers might be for product categories that weren't around back then, like LEGO Dimensions, but I'm sure for the regular retail sets LEGO produces as many or more copies of each than they did back then.
    VorpalRyu
  • TheUltimateTFOLTheUltimateTFOL Texas, USAMember Posts: 155
    edited December 2015
    Just wondering, has anyone seen evidence of the forecasted Lego shortage?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,791
    All of the TFA SW sets are basically gone in Upstate NY TRUs.
  • Kevin_HyattKevin_Hyatt UKMember Posts: 778
    ^^^and with 100k of each of those sets in attics and lockups I find it hard to believe people are going to make a mint on them...

    Hopefully when casual 'investors' realise theyve wasted their time they will dump their stock and we can pick up some bargains!
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Just wondering, has anyone seen evidence of the forecasted Lego shortage?
    No, frankly stock levels were very good this year...

    Amazon didn't run out until the last week or two before Christmas, and they held stock for longer than I expected them to on popular sets...

    I saw abundant supply, not a shortage.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    I thought the shortage was supposed to be for Europe, not the USA.  Most retail inventory seemed to match Amazon, meaning that I could tell when shoppers had hit the shelves and supplies were thinner, but they were restocked within a day.  It's only been the past two days where the shelves have been getting bare.  (Or they decide to devote an entire aisle length of shelf to Darkseid, stacked one deep).
    SumoLegokiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,019
    edited December 2015
    Are stocks at OK levels, or is demand down overall? I would not be surprised if it is the latter
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,791
    The stock probably reflects demand.  Probably another billion dollar year for Lego.
  • JetWing34JetWing34 Michigan, USAMember Posts: 38
    ^ Yes, and Lego is THE greatest, if not the most popular, toy brand of all-time. It's not just for kids anymore. It's for all ages, from kids to teens and AFOLs.
    SumoLego
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Are stocks at OK levels, or is demand down overall? I would not be surprised if it is the latter

    I could have missed it,  but i don't recall any toy achieving the "must-have and impossible to find" status.  So maybe demand was lower across the board. ..
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Online stock was fine, but most B&M stores around here were pretty much decimated. Very few things with more than 1-2 copies still on the shelves. Many sets sold out completely.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited December 2015
    Online stock was fine, but most B&M stores around here were pretty much decimated. Very few things with more than 1-2 copies still on the shelves. Many sets sold out completely.
    Same I'm my area, although all the TFA sets with the exception of Poe's X Wing were still available at most stores. I thought it was strange, given the movie's success. 
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    CircleK said:
    Online stock was fine, but most B&M stores around here were pretty much decimated. Very few things with more than 1-2 copies still on the shelves. Many sets sold out completely.
    Same I'm my area, although all the TFA sets with the exception of Poe's X Wing were still available at most stores. I thought it was strange, given the movie's success. 
    If I may be so blunt...  I thought most of the TFA sets rather sucked, nothing there was really interesting...

    The X-Wing, maybe...  but nothing else really jumps out at me...
    weevinShpadoinkle
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,316
    In shops locally, it's becoming pretty evident that there is a Lego shortage occurring. M*gaBl*ks & Kr*o are slowly filling the Lego branded shelving space in some stores, just so they don't have empty space.
    xiahna
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    After putting these together I must put together Poe's X-Wing and the Elite Forces Tie Fighter.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    CircleK said:
    Online stock was fine, but most B&M stores around here were pretty much decimated. Very few things with more than 1-2 copies still on the shelves. Many sets sold out completely.
    Same I'm my area, although all the TFA sets with the exception of Poe's X Wing were still available at most stores. I thought it was strange, given the movie's success. 
    If I may be so blunt...  I thought most of the TFA sets rather sucked, nothing there was really interesting...

    The X-Wing, maybe...  but nothing else really jumps out at me...
    Agreed. Although I feel that is more of a slam on the movie than it is Lego. 

    Still... I expected them to be popular with the kid folk and maybe they are - just didn't seem to be in my area. The price probably isn't helping either. 
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    edited December 2015
    I don't feel as if the stores have been depleted significantly more than they usually are around Christmas time.  Lego seemed to be "temporarily out of stock" on many exclusives for many, many months now and still are.  This leads me to believe they shifted production away from the bigger sets during some of the year to what the kiddos would want instead.  That said, Target and TRU still have most new TFA stuff online. 

    I was told by numerous people that know I collect Lego that there will be a "shortage".  That was even before Thanksgiving.  I feel like Lego was smart, realized they could possibly run low on some things, did some revaluation, changed production, and told people early that it might be a good idea to beat the rush to stores because there could possibly a "shortage".  Looks like they did a pretty good job of avoiding a shortage.  Just my opinion.
    Dadkiki180703
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,633
    I didn't spot any shortage in the UK, I don't think there was a single set (unless retired) that we were after that we could not get hold of.
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,825
    Pitfall69 said:
    Huh?  They havent got any bumps on them?
    Bumblepantskiki180703madforLEGOcatwrangler
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    ^^ those are the hasbro toys, not LEGO
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    Yeah, that is why I posted those, because now I want to build the LEGO versions :)
    Yodalicious
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,019
    edited December 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    Yeah, that is why I posted those, because now I want to build the LEGO versions :)
    NO, you got the Hasbro versions first.. You have slighted the mighty LEGO. NO LEGO FOR YOU! :-p
    Yodaliciouskiki180703SumoLegoMrJ_NYLostInTranslation
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    edited December 2015
    No no. I had a couple of the new movie sets already, but held off building them until I saw the movie and got the non Lego sets last night from a friend. Now I want to buy Poe's X-Wing :)
    bandit778Shpadoinklekiki180703
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,825
    Thing is, you know SW vehicles only look right in the 21st century with bumps, right?
    xwingpilotkiki180703
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 928
    #10240 Check availability in the UK
  • MynattMynatt OH/NYMember Posts: 601
    I have a smallish Brickfolio and only sell items from time to time. That being said, I do not avidly keep up with reselling information and news.

    While visiting family, I found a small toy store with 7 millennium falcon micro fighters on the shelf. Now I went through the sold recently on eBay and seen that some have sold from $15 - $25. The Bricklink average is about $13 and Brickpicker says the average is $15. Are they worth picking them up as an investment or should I leave them be.

    Also if anyone would like for me to pick one up for a trade or purchase, give me a PM by the next two days and I would be more then willing grab one or more. (USA would be preferred)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,019
    Mynatt said:
    I have a smallish Brickfolio and only sell items from time to time. That being said, I do not avidly keep up with reselling information and news.

    While visiting family, I found a small toy store with 7 millennium falcon micro fighters on the shelf. Now I went through the sold recently on eBay and seen that some have sold from $15 - $25. The Bricklink average is about $13 and Brickpicker says the average is $15. Are they worth picking them up as an investment or should I leave them be.

    Also if anyone would like for me to pick one up for a trade or purchase, give me a PM by the next two days and I would be more then willing grab one or more. (USA would be preferred)
    Do you want to go through all of the hassle only to make about 5 dollars profit each?
    Again not to sound snarky, but not sure what people expect asking for advice from their competition. Never mind that people can be just as wrong even if they have been involved in reselling for a long time as well.

    I think you have to ask yourself how much can you really make off of something, and then if it is worth it to buy it, store it, and list it somewhere, sell it (paying fees) and ship it.
    If it is all worth it to you then go for it. If not then do not.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,435
    pharmjodbluedragonSumoLegokiki180703Rainstorm26mr.pigglesLego_StarGothamConstructionCo
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Again not to sound snarky, but not sure what people expect asking for advice from their competition. Never mind that people can be just as wrong even if they have been involved in reselling for a long time as well.
    Two very good points here.  

    With respect to competition, I have two general observations.  One is that there is a general tendency of the resller mass to say, "Buy it.  Buy all you can get."  In a cynical perspective, I wonder if this mentality is driven towards creating a better market for resale since they are increasing the number of people trying to scoop up all the supply.  The second observation is that many resellers will at least say that there is plenty of resale market for everyone;  so one can freely dispense advice and deals as he stands to suffer minimally from more competition in the resale marketplace.

    And with respect to predicting good resale value, I believe the honest opinion is that resellers aim to win (big return) more frequently than they lose (minimal return to loss), but nobody can consistently "win" without also "losing".  

    If you want to really complicate it, some of the surprising "winners" have emerged from the sets that the general population of resellers have ignored or shunned.  BTTF is a great example.  Nobody I recall was predicting Gallimimus Trap to be such a hit.   It took a few months for the reseller masses to realize the demand for much of the JW line.

    So I propose the question.  Observing that BTTF had a long shelf life, many opportunities to purchase below MSRP, and is regularly selling for over $100 on eBay, what do you think the future of Exo-Suit looks like?  
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    Let me know when exo suit has a beloved movie franchise behind it and an entire generation worth of pop culture references. Ecto 1, that's a better comparison. Exo suit is however a great build.
    bluedragonDiggydoesYodaliciouskiki180703
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Fair point.  I would suggest that the Classic Space aspects* of Exo-Suit create similar interest among the fans of Classic Space.  While a much smaller population than that of a movie fan base, most fans of Classic Space are interested in buying LEGO.

    * It's not Classic Space.  But it's about as close as we can expect to get from LEGO these days.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited December 2015

    goshe7 said:

    And with respect to predicting good resale value, I believe the honest opinion is that resellers aim to win (big return) more frequently than they lose (minimal return to loss), but nobody can consistently "win" without also "losing". 
    This is a strange paragraph, and I don't really follow, but I will say that anyone that doesn't aim to overall win more frequently than they lose is not going to last very long.  That being written, it's quite possible to win the overall war while suffering a few lost battles.
    goshe7 said:

    If you want to really complicate it, some of the surprising "winners" have emerged from the sets that the general population of resellers have ignored or shunned.  BTTF is a great example.  Nobody I recall was predicting Gallimimus Trap to be such a hit.   It took a few months for the reseller masses to realize the demand for much of the JW line.
    This is really untrue.  The Gallimimus trap was always popular.  The largest sets have been consistently unavailable, and now the whole line is rare.  Anyone who didn't see this coming wasn't paying much attention.  If by "Nobody was predicting" means you didn't see tons of notes on Brickset, maybe that's true.  Regardless, that's only one measurement.  Again, anyone watching sold-prices on these things knew there was a market long ago.

    Also, BTTF wasn't shunned, ever, except maybe by those that again, aren't paying attention.  I'm guessing these same folks are shunning the currently available Ecto-1 too.
    goshe7 said:

    ...the resller mass...
    ...many resellers...
    ...resellers...
    ...the general population of resellers...
    ...the reseller masses...
    Resellers are not a mass, any more than any other group is.  There are individuals who are good at what they do, especially as it applies to their situation.  Then, there are others that are...less so.  You need to move away from lumping them into a faceless mass.  Also, resellers are only one (small) piece of the overall market puzzle which also includes Lego, retailers and the end user.
    goshe7 said:

    So I propose the question...what do you think the future of Exo-Suit looks like?  
    It looks like crap. :)
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,791
    Crap = Flat sales, close to original retail prices.
    roxiokiki180703Pitfall69
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