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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • desultordesultor Southern California, USAMember Posts: 7
    Hey all, apologies if I missed discussion on this (I searched a few times), but what are your thoughts on the impact the Ghostbusters Firehouse #75827 will have on resale value of the Fire Brigade #10197?
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    desultor said:
    Hey all, apologies if I missed discussion on this (I searched a few times), but what are your thoughts on the impact the Ghostbusters Firehouse #75827 will have on resale value of the Fire Brigade #10197?
    My thoughts. Almost Zilch. People hitting the aftermarket for an FB want an FB. Most likely to complete their Modular collection. The GBHQ won't scratch that itch. 
    pharmjodmadforLEGOdougtsYodaliciouskiki180703BuriedinBricksFollowsCloselySlapNuts
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    I think it'll keep FB capped at $400 for about forever.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyu
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    ^ I think the continual addition to the modular line will keep the appreciation flat for the post Green Grocer/Market Street modulars.
    goshe7VorpalRyukiki180703
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    That is very possible. However, appreciation doesn't have to be Cafe Corner / Green Grocer / Market Street crazy to be worthwhile. If Fire Brigade never gets above $400, that is still >100% profit after fees and shipping. If Grand Emporium never gets abover $300 it is ~60% profit or better. I will take those kinds of numbers all day long. For me the "investing" side of LEGO is really more about paying for the stuff I want to keep and having some extra for other hobbies. I don't look at it as a viable income replacement or even retirement subsidy. I guess it could be that, but I'm already starting to get burned out so I don't anticipate me going deeper than I already am.
    VorpalRyuHaay1971BumblepantsYodaliciousPitfall69Angel_C
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Death Star is still available in the UCS.  Not many sets labeled as retiring soon here
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^Oops, meant US
    kiki180703brickupdate
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,431
    @tecjam - what is the set you posted from the directions? I don't recognize it.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    Bosstone100 said:
    @tecjam - what is the set you posted from the directions? I don't recognize it.
    Hi, it's from the Town Hall #10224 - specifically page number 58
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I grabbed an extra copy of the MKII #42009 a few days ago.  Would have liked to get 2, it was at about $178 for sooooooo long.  Definitely an under-represented set, should do well in the aftermarket I think.  Thinking about getting a second at retail maybe, probably not though.

    Lego.com won't let me check the EU site to see what's "retiring soon".  Any word on the Sandcrawler, Ewok Village, TB, the modulars?  Are the EU and US regions set up so differently now that stock will stay in one area for 6 months, etc after it's disappeared in another?  I thought the UCS X-wing was dead for awhile now here in the US.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    Regarding the UCS X-Wing, it's been listed as Sold Out on the US [email protected] for a while now.

    I was surprised to find one when I went to the pre Black Friday thing for my local Lego Store, and one of the employees told me they were all shocked to get a couple shipments of them in as well. Obviously take what the employee said with a grain of salt.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    Dougout said:

    Lego.com won't let me check the EU site to see what's "retiring soon".  Any word on the Sandcrawler, Ewok Village, TB, the modulars? 
    No.



  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    edited December 2015
    So it seems to me that Star Wars is smothering Super Heroes sales (EOL'd LEGO sets to be precise, trying to stay on topic here...). Early wave Super Heroes set growth is struggling, and I think Star Wars plus the fake fig issues are the two big culprits.

    Just wondering what the future holds for the DC and Marvel sets from that 2012 wave. My guess is that they will stay where they are at now, and for a long time.

    My interest here is that I have a mild investment (like many) in a few of each, and understand I may have to part them out. Just curious where others stand who may also be in the same situation.
    brickupdatekiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,717
    edited December 2015
    My two cents, but I would steer clear of most SW and most Super Heroes for investment, at least for the minor investment folks (buy a set or two to hold for later) as I do not think it is worth it now. I mean look at #9516 as an example. LEGO found the formula for ensuring those do not rise in price. The constant threat of issuing a new set with the same (or better version of) figures, and now that they are adding their 'SW tax' to all new sets, I mean the RRP price now for the Sith infiltrator is a joke, unless you get the sets on sale you are asking to lose money IMO. There are exceptions to the rule, I think the Cantina should do OK (IF you bought them on sale anyway), but I think most are going to be relatively stale IMO. Now, if you are one of these folks that buys 100 of a set to sell at for a 10 dollar profit on each then you may do OK.

    I'm not sure how much they are adding a 'Super Hero tax' to the Marvel and DC sets, as it seems like they are fairly decent value. However, I think the illegal China copies and the fact that again LEGO can easily re-release figures (and maybe better versions of)in new sets tends to keep prices down now.
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    edited December 2015
    ^^I know exactly what you mean @prevereabout the lack of post-EOL appreciation for SH sets. And I blame that squarely on the lackluster 'sets' themselves, as most the offerings have been very weak when minifigs are taken out of the equation. Thus the figs are the obvious main driving force of the theme, which has been significantly dented by the flood of fake copies from overseas.

    When you take a closer look at all the sets released by DC (64) & Marvel (65), what are actual prime candidates for a good afterlife?

    DC:
    #10937 Arkham Asylum Breakout (Great)
    #76023 UCS Tumbler (Great)
    #6862 Superman vs. Lex Power Armor (Good)
    #76001 The Bat vs. Bane Tumbler (Good)
    #76003 Battle of Smallville (Good)
    #76025 Sinestro vs. Green Lantern (Good)
    #76028 Darkseid Invasion (Good)
    #76035 Jokerland (Good)

    2 Great sets with good potential for appreciation post-EOL, 6 decent-good sets that are all either cheap to start, on discount often or mass volume production (except Jokerland). So even then, these aren't expected to gain much value in the long run.

    Marvel:
    #76042 UCS Helicarrier (Great)
    #6869 Quinjet 1 (Great)
    #76032 Quinjet 2 (Great)
    #76021 Milano Spaceship (Great)
    #76031 Hulk Buster Smash (Good)
    #76022 X-men Blackbird vs. Sentinel (Good)
    #76039 Ant-man (Good)

    Marvel had a couple more high quality sets, with a couple decent-good sets in the lower & mid price range. But oddly it is the Wolverine Chopper set from the 1st wave that has appreciated the most, considering the build was near non-existant. Which only emphasizes the relation of value being in the minifigs as opposed to the set itself.

    preverekiki180703
  • arathemisarathemis RomaniaMember Posts: 548
    How long before the Pet shop becomes discontinued? What do you think?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,717
    arathemis said:
    How long before the Pet shop becomes discontinued? What do you think?
    There are two camps on that. 1 is folks think it is close to going now, like in the next few weeks/months at the latest.
    The other camp thinks it will be another year before it goes and even that the Palace Cinema can go before it.
    I would say this, if you want it, buy it now.
    As for it lingering, Im not sure it will last beyond the PC retiring but with LEGO now, who knows?
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    arathemis said:
    How long before the Pet shop becomes discontinued? What do you think?
    ^ Agreed. PS is on borrowed time. With the Bank coming imminently, something's gotta go.
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    edited December 2015
    @BrickDancer I would suggest the X-men sentinel set might be better than the milano. I like both, but x-men is much more mainstream and has I presume a larger following. I really like both sets though regardless and have more than a few of each purchased from 30-50% off.
    BuriedinBricksBrickaholickiki180703
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    Isn't most of the value in the Wolverine Chopper set due to the Deadpool figure?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,526
    Minifigs drive the price in most SH sets (non UCS).  So sets with unique minifigs will do well. Wolverine Chopper also disappeared relatively quickly compared to others of the same time.
    VorpalRyukiki180703SumoLego
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @pharmjod its a tough call between the Milano and X-men Blackbird in terms of % appreciation. I think it's an even toss up with slight edge for the X-men.

    As for the figs, the X-men are crowd faves and this set had a good lineup in iconic garbs (aside from Magneto's). While Guardians of the Galaxy has a smaller fanbase, the Milano is an essential set as all the figs are unique (without alternate variants either aside from Star Lord) to it except for the Sakaaran foot soldier.

    But in terms of build and finished piece, the Milano blows the Blackbird out of the water at double the piece count. The Milano is much heftier and because of the wings, looks larger too.
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    #76040 seems like it might do OK too and wasn't on the list above. A decent array of minifigures, exclusive to tesco in the UK, and a reasonable buy in price should see it doing OK in the future. 
    pharmjod
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    While I liked the X-Jet in #76022, the build wasn't anything special, I felt the set could have done with a second Sentinel, heck, I'm still considering BrickLinking it. One of the things that work in it's favour, is the fact that we won't be seeing much of anything more X-Men related in brick until MARVEL gets the movie rights back from FOX (also why no FF stuff).

    As for #76021, I loved the build, the Milano is one of my favourites, I'd love to see Rocket's Warbird done to the same scale. Safe to say, with there being a GotG 2 in the works & a GotG 3 is likely, it's a high probability that we'll see another Milano in brick.
    xiahna
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    edited December 2015
    I 100% agree the Milano is a superior vehicle build. It is a great looking build even if you have no idea the context. I was looking from a straight minifigure standpoint. Cyclops and storm (and Wolverine) will definitely drive the x-men set which is why I give it a slight edge perhaps. Time will tell. If the x-jet stays for another year, I am less optimistic.
    VorpalRyu
  • chuxtoyboxchuxtoybox Member Posts: 711
    I thought they were currently working on a new X-men movie, or did I miss it? Supposed to have Apocalypse and Storm and I think Psylocke.
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I think that the Wolverine showdown set still has plenty of room to go up. With the new Deadpool movie having a solid "R" rating I think it's doubtful to have another set with him in it.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    Problem with x-men movies is that Disney doesn't have the license. Unless LEGO works with FOX directly the only sets will be from the comics via MARVEL. Not as though that's terrible but perhaps limiting as far as LEGO goes.
    VorpalRyu
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    FOX currently holds the movie rights to X-Men & FF, but only to make movies, the merchandising rights are with MARVEL, who want the movie rights back. MARVEL is not so subtly fighting a war of attrition with FOX by reducing the merchandise connected with X-Men & FF. I would have thought that FOX would learnt their lesson on this one back when George asked for the merchandising rights for SW, clearly not.

    So that factor alone add viability for more of a profit margin on #76022 post retirement.
    xiahna
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Thanos75 said:
    I think that the Wolverine showdown set still has plenty of room to go up. With the new Deadpool movie having a solid "R" rating I think it's doubtful to have another set with him in it.
    LEGO won't make sets for the "Deadpool" movie, but they can still release sets based on the comic book correct? 
  • supervir2supervir2 united statesMember Posts: 25
    Tried to find this info elsewhere, but failed and figured this was a good place to ask.  Is Jurassic World done at retail (ie no new shipments)  or is there a chance we'll still see more?   I only just now saw the movie and my interest in some of the sets I passed on has increased.   
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    supervir2 said:
    Tried to find this info elsewhere, but failed and figured this was a good place to ask.  Is Jurassic World done at retail (ie no new shipments)  or is there a chance we'll still see more?   I only just now saw the movie and my interest in some of the sets I passed on has increased.   
    Plenty of new shipments to come. My LEGO Store was packed full this weekend, as was my Toys. R Us today. 
  • arathemisarathemis RomaniaMember Posts: 548
    which building do you think will do better after retirement? Palace Cinema or Pet Shop?
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    will #8877 vladeks dark castle ever go down in price?
    is now a good time to buy. really digging the black/pearl grey style.
    i could get one for 72€.  worth it?

    also
    #8802   for 20€

    are those castle sets likely to go down in price anytime soon ?
  • arathemisarathemis RomaniaMember Posts: 548
    those are some sweet sets @brumey. I`d be happy to get those with under RRP price.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,717
    edited December 2015
    arathemis said:
    which building do you think will do better after retirement? Palace Cinema or Pet Shop?
    Good question. Both are pretty unique. Pet shop is more 'flexible' in that you can split the mod and move half here and half there, but I can see LEGO doing another townhouse/shop combo in the future. However, the Palace Cinema is a movie house, and unlikely to be done in modular scale again.

    I think PC may do better after retirement as I'm not sure if there will be more of those being hoarded or less, at least in the US, due to the exclusive discount ban that I think was not in place when Pet shop came out. However, I believe was in place by the time PC appeared.
    VorpalRyu
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Haymarket, VAMember Posts: 1,268
    ds.png 354.4K
    kiki180703RomanticWarriorBosstone100
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 653
    So sets I really gotta have over the course of the next year are:

    Tumbler UCS
    Slave 1 UCS
    Simpson House
    Kwik - E - Mart

    Am I correct in assuming the Tumbler will retire first, so I should probably start there?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    I wouldn't put the Tumbler on the list.  It's only listed as 'Hard to Find', not 'Retiring Soon'.
  • cooldude00cooldude00 ukMember Posts: 44
     

    tumbler is down as "retiring soon" in the UK [email protected] so the US can't be far off?
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    DS retiring soon a.k.a. by they end of this decade for sure.

    Also, they pulled Town Hall before Pet Shop.  I wouldn't be surprised if Parisian Restaurant goes before PS or PC.
    kiki180703
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,717
    Dougout said:
    DS retiring soon a.k.a. by they end of this decade for sure.

    Also, they pulled Town Hall before Pet Shop.  I wouldn't be surprised if Parisian Restaurant goes before PS or PC.
    I still do not consider TH as any kind of indicator with the cheaper 'standard' Mods. Town Hall was considerably bigger in statue and in price. Additionally I think price, not design, likely doomed it.. especially when it was rarely discounted in the US.

    Until LEGO surprises me, I'll presume that the PS goes first, then PC, then PR. I just do not see PR, with its increase price, going before the cheaper mods. Not if they can sell the same amount of PRs as a PS or PC, but with an additional 10 USD to the cost.

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,197
    ^ I would be surprised.  I believe the restaurant is a consistent seller.
    BumblepantsVorpalRyukiki180703
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    I'm not into The Simpsons, but the Kwik-E-Mart appeals to me, because of all the 'easter eggs' it contains.   I have never see a set with so many ties ins to the theme.  It is an extremely well done set.  

    I think the same about The Hobbit Unexpected Gathering set.  It's iconic as well.
  • monstblitzmonstblitz Hornell, NYMember Posts: 653
    cloaked7 said:
    I'm not into The Simpsons, but the Kwik-E-Mart appeals to me, because of all the 'easter eggs' it contains.   I have never see a set with so many ties ins to the theme.  It is an extremely well done set.  

    I think the same about The Hobbit Unexpected Gathering set.  It's iconic as well.
    Are the Simpsons sets retiring soon?  I know they aren't listed as retiring soon currently.  But I don't want to miss out on either of them. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,717
    monstblitz said:
    cloaked7 said:
    I'm not into The Simpsons, but the Kwik-E-Mart appeals to me, because of all the 'easter eggs' it contains.   I have never see a set with so many ties ins to the theme.  It is an extremely well done set.  

    I think the same about The Hobbit Unexpected Gathering set.  It's iconic as well.
    Are the Simpsons sets retiring soon?  I know they aren't listed as retiring soon currently.  But I don't want to miss out on either of them. 
    I would say the House is likely to go soon, at least before the Kwik E Mart
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Hmm so the tumbler's listed as retiring soon on uk an de. No mention on us though... isn't that a bit early for this to go, especially since it's one of the best sellers?
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,258
    Keep in mind that the Batcave stayed in the US a year after it was gone everywhere else.
    Brickaholicexciter1kiki180703
  • desultordesultor Southern California, USAMember Posts: 7
    I noticed the Death Star #10188 labeled as "retiring soon" at the Downtown Disney, though I know we don't put much faith in stores knowing the future.

    For the few(?) of us with a couple still stashed in the attic, what's the consensus?

    1. When it does retire, no update will be made, or the update will be different enough that the original will still be valued, so ownership and resale profit will be highly valued. 

    Or...
  • desultordesultor Southern California, USAMember Posts: 7
    2. An update will be made that is more appealing (updated minifigs, more building detail, modernized building techniques, modernized instructions) so ownership and resale profit will be devalued.

    Thanks!
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