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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Haay1971Haay1971 The NetherlandsMember Posts: 7
    I think the next similar set will be based on the new The Force Awakens movie, modelled after the Starkiller Base.
    VorpalRyukiki180703FollowsClosely
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,059
    Most of the Pirate sets are now listed as sold out at Shop @ Home - United States of America.

    I am surprised that the line wasn't even given a year before this happened; I am also surprised that Brick Bounty started showing up as sold out on Saturday, a full 48 hours before it would have even been on sale.

    I wonder how many people saw it was going to be on sale on cyber monday and decided to "clean house" anyway.

    Anyone care to weigh in on future value of these sets?  I know they were not extremely popular, but given the short shelf life and in my opinion, quick turn to being sold out, who knows, they may hold their own?
    Mordoor
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,328
    edited November 2015
    If another PoTC movie was not coming out next year (which will likley reintroduce the line), I would say they could go up. I think in any case the only one that may rise is the Brickbeards Bounty, as the ships tend to rise.

    This is of course if the sets really are all gone and not just a mistake by LEGO and are all temporarily sold out

  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    Maybe that's why they are shutting down this line now to create enough of a gap between this line and the new one that will be coming.
    FollowsCloselykiki180703MasterBeefy
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    Or maybe pirates aren't as popular and LEGO is realizing that now.

    I love pirates, don't get me wrong, but I never see kids playing "pirate" anymore. They don't pretend to be medieval knights. no one is a cowboy these days. A lot of play items are geared toward more sci-fi it seems. GotG, Dr Who, SW of course. Even Avengers had a lot of tech stuff.

    Which makes me think Nexo Knights might actually be a hit. It combines the classic medieval knights with sci fi...although, it could just as easily be a huge miss.
    dougtskiki180703VorpalRyuMasterBeefy
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    That's a direct result of kids playing what they are exposed to.  There are no good pirates shows besides the super kiddy stuff, no good cowboy stuff except the failed lone ranger, and the medieval stuff has been replaced by GoT type of things which tend to incorporate more dragons and zombies than your typical stuff from that era.  Super Heroes and Fantasy have taken over.
    FollowsCloselykiki180703VorpalRyu
  • KralaskanKralaskan Member Posts: 208
    That's no moon, that's a space station!    Had to say it. Lol.  
  • MrJ_NYMrJ_NY A flick missle away from Brickagara FallsMember Posts: 592
    Who wants to buy Pirates when they stopped making blue/water colored baseplates...meh
    Rainstorm26kiki180703exciter1
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,700
    There was rumour going back 10 months I think that a mk 2 was it's way with updated figs.  I heard it from a couple of staff at the time but have heard nothing since.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Obviously no one has been to Disney World lately.  Plenty of pirates wandering around that place, granted they are Jack Sparrow, but they have entire nights at the Magic Kingdom for pirate parties.  Now Cowboys and Indians on the other hand......
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,700
    edited December 2015
    ^^ Completely out of context.  What happens when you miss the new page of posts.
    VorpalRyuBumblepantsMattsWhat
  • ModulaRModulaR USMember Posts: 39

    That is a fair point...  but look at it on the shelf (mine has been there for 5 years now), it is really showing some age...

    The minifigs show it the most, and I'd be concerned at some point if I was TLG that it no longer shows off their best foot.  It is quite different now to all the new sets, from the quality of the instructions (the book is physically good, but the design is old) to the figure design, to the box itself.
    (Re: Death Star) Out of curiosity, what exactly do you mean about the instructions?

    I guess that from my perspective, if the set it still selling, that is incentive to not bother updating it. I would even say that it has an increasingly unique charm owing to its box art style. The human minifig faces are rough, though.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    ModulaR said:

    That is a fair point...  but look at it on the shelf (mine has been there for 5 years now), it is really showing some age...

    The minifigs show it the most, and I'd be concerned at some point if I was TLG that it no longer shows off their best foot.  It is quite different now to all the new sets, from the quality of the instructions (the book is physically good, but the design is old) to the figure design, to the box itself.
    (Re: Death Star) Out of curiosity, what exactly do you mean about the instructions?

    I guess that from my perspective, if the set it still selling, that is incentive to not bother updating it. I would even say that it has an increasingly unique charm owing to its box art style. The human minifig faces are rough, though.
    If you open a Star Wars instruction book from 2005, then 2010, then 2015, you'll see many small differences, or at least I do.  Maybe I pay too much attention, or build too many sets, but I can almost tell the age of a set by looking at a random page from the instructions.

    They have gotten much better in quality, in showing where to put parts, how many parts per step, the list of parts needed for each step, and how much to do for each step.

    Or maybe I have just lost my mind, who knows.  :)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,697
    ^ or gotten much too easy to follow :-)
    FollowsCloselykiki180703MasterBeefyDedgecko
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    ^^
    OR

    pirates is getting merged with ninJAHgo
    kiki180703
  • bok2bok2 Member Posts: 53
    CCC said:
    ^ or gotten much too easy to follow :-)
    In the good old days kids (and/or their parents) were assumed to be smart and/or like a challenge. Today we know this is not the case!
    Sethro3kiki180703MasterBeefy
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    edited December 2015
    bok2 said:
    CCC said:
    ^ or gotten much too easy to follow :-)
    In the good old days kids (and/or their parents) were assumed to be smart and/or like a challenge. Today we know this is not the case!
    thats why i play demons and dark souls ......

    people dont want a challenge nowadays! sadly
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,802
    bok2 said:
    CCC said:
    ^ or gotten much too easy to follow :-)
    In the good old days kids (and/or their parents) were assumed to be smart and/or like a challenge. Today we know this is not the case!
    Personally, I think today's sets offer plenty of challenge without that challenge having to stem from unclear (i.e. poorly-designed) instructions. How does making it easier to miss a part help anybody? I've made plenty of mistakes in building sets before, even with recent sets, and it doesn't make building the sets any more fun or rewarding for me. It just adds unnecessary confusion or frustration, especially if you make it several more steps without noticing your mistake and then have to backtrack to see where you messed up.

    And as for instructions getting longer due to having fewer parts per step, I actually think that makes the building experience MORE rewarding, not less. There's something really validating about watching a model come together piece by piece, slowly but surely — whether it's a $20 LEGO City "Great Vehicle", a $70 Ninjago dragon, or a giant display piece like the Modular Buildings. Turning the set into a race to complete the model in as few steps as possible takes some of the fun out of that. Also, coming from a household with two siblings, I build many sets together with a partner, alternating steps. And that's much more fun for me when we get to alternate back and forth more frequently.
    FollowsCloselyVorpalRyuTheBigLegoskiRonyarkiki180703khmellymelMasterBeefyAngel_C
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    It is interesting. I've been building old space sets from my youth lately. So looking at a lot of early 90s set instructions compared to the newer versions I've built with over the last year. It is amazing how few steps a giant set was in the 90s compared to now.

    Certainly some pieces are going to get overlooked.
    FollowsCloselyVorpalRyukiki180703Pitfall69
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    If another PoTC movie was not coming out next year (which will likley reintroduce the line), I would say they could go up.
    So you're saying they could go up? Dead Men Tell No Tales is currently scheduled for July 2017.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,328
    binaryeye said:
    If another PoTC movie was not coming out next year (which will likley reintroduce the line), I would say they could go up.
    So you're saying they could go up? Dead Men Tell No Tales is currently scheduled for July 2017.
    Ah, did not realize the movie is not out until 17 (as I thought they were filming it now) so yeah it could go up, but again what likely will increase its value is the pirate ship. Im not sensing the other sets (maybe that soldier fort) would rise too much. But just my 2 cents
    goshe7kiki180703
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,146
    I'm not that shocked to see the Pirates theme gone. I had a feeling it might be gone by the end of the year when the chess set ended up for sale somewhere during the summer, and has been on sale twice again since, including currently.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Sethro3 said:
    It is interesting. I've been building old space sets from my youth lately. So looking at a lot of early 90s set instructions compared to the newer versions I've built with over the last year. It is amazing how few steps a giant set was in the 90s compared to now.

    Certainly some pieces are going to get overlooked.
    Interesting.  I am doing the same thing.  Just rebuilt my Galaxy Explorer #497 last night.  It's a huge ship and was the belle of the ball back in the day.  The instructions are only 7 pages and there are MANY more pieces per step than in today's sets.  THis struck me.  However, the set only has 338 pieces and the build is VERY simple and straight forward compared to today's sets.  Bottom line is that a large classic set would be a small-medium size set today based on piece count.  When you add in the expansion of the color palette, the use of technic pieces and the shear size and complexity of some of the builds today, its no wonder that the instructions have become more detailed and simple.  They have to.
    VorpalRyu
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,328
    wagnerml2 said:
    Sethro3 said:
    It is interesting. I've been building old space sets from my youth lately. So looking at a lot of early 90s set instructions compared to the newer versions I've built with over the last year. It is amazing how few steps a giant set was in the 90s compared to now.

    Certainly some pieces are going to get overlooked.
    Interesting.  I am doing the same thing.  Just rebuilt my Galaxy Explorer #497 last night.  It's a huge ship and was the belle of the ball back in the day.  The instructions are only 7 pages and there are MANY more pieces per step than in today's sets.  THis struck me.  However, the set only has 338 pieces and the build is VERY simple and straight forward compared to today's sets.  Bottom line is that a large classic set would be a small-medium size set today based on piece count.  When you add in the expansion of the color palette, the use of technic pieces and the shear size and complexity of some of the builds today, its no wonder that the instructions have become more detailed and simple.  They have to.
    I like the Galaxy Explorer, actually most of the classic space sets. Just really creative sets and really easy for the imagination take over on those when I was a kid. I just had to give classic space up from my collection as I had to trim down my genres because Town/train takes up a lot of space. Though Blacktron I and Space Police I have creeped back into my home lately.
    The only issue have building the Galaxy Explorer is ensuring I have the all the plates in the right place when building the base of the ship.
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    I like and dislike the instructions these days compared to the days of my youth - the 80s and into the 90s. Yes, the instructions are easier to follow, but some steps really do have too few pieces. Yes, this is a kid's toy and should be simplified somewhat, but there are steps that include two pieces. Even my three-year-old is looking ahead to the next step because he's found them so quickly. The build techniques are vastly superior these days, so I completely understand the need for simplified instructions compared to the old days, but in some cases we've reached an almost ridiculous point.
  • DreamyBongoDreamyBongo Member Posts: 13
    My 30 year old brothers are both smart people when it comes to putting things together yet they can't put LEGO sets together. People exist that have trouble with current directions.
    AanchirVorpalRyukiki180703
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    They should make them even easier to read then!

    I actually saw some custom instructions online for some MOC. They had the entire build grayscaled, except for the new pieces. It really made them stand out to know what you needed and where to put them. The new outline helps a lot though too.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I was thinking about grabbing a few extra Cafe & Bike shops #31026.  It isn't a big set, but it might look good to break up rows of modular houses.  Then again, maybe I just like too many Lego sets and think just about everything is good.
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    Dougout said:
    I was thinking about grabbing a few extra Cafe & Bike shops #31026.  It isn't a big set, but it might look good to break up rows of modular houses.  Then again, maybe I just like too many Lego sets and think just about everything is good.
    I was thinking the same if Amazon has them around 30% off again. It's a decent set on its own and should also make for good parts pack. I like builldings in that scale for some odd reason and was happy to see it continued with the upcoming corner Deli. In some ways, I think Creator does a better job at City buildings than City does itself. 

    If I ever get the time, bricks, and inclination someday then I may try to MOC some buildings in that scale that resemble the Modulars. 
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    I bought the cafe and bike shop specifically to turn into as modular. I find love the set though and wonder why I spent the money.
    prevere
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    ^I've seen a couple of nice modulars done with 2x Cafe and Bike Shops. Also waiting for the 30% Amazon deal again to grab another.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    ^ I managed to grab a 2nd of #31026 at 40% off. I already have one built, but for the price per part I couldn't let a 2nd one slip. I also grabbed a couple more #31036 at roughly the same discount. I quite like the smaller buildings, especially as you can easily beef them up with a 2nd set.

    As for instructions, I quite liked the way the Town Hall Instructions has the newly added parts surrounded with a red line. I wonder why they stopped doing that. It seemed like the best way, to me anyway.





    Did I read somewhere that the new Pirates theme as been discontinued?
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 994
    getting merged with ninjago
    tecjamkiki180703
  • tick1970tick1970 LondonMember Posts: 117
    so is the At-At #75054 just about done and dusted? finding stock on shelves anywhere is tough
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    ^^ looks like it. First the Star Detroyer, now the At-At.



  • khmellymelkhmellymel United KingdomMember Posts: 1,226
    tecjam said:
    ^ I managed to grab a 2nd of #31026 at 40% off. I already have one built, but for the price per part I couldn't let a 2nd one slip. I also grabbed a couple more #31036 at roughly the same discount. I quite like the smaller buildings, especially as you can easily beef them up with a 2nd set.

    As for instructions, I quite liked the way the Town Hall Instructions has the newly added parts surrounded with a red line. I wonder why they stopped doing that. It seemed like the best way, to me anyway.

    I think the red outlines are still used, but was just intended to for those builds where it might be difficult to tell that new pieces are required.  I have the Architecture Trevi Fountain #21020 which was produced after Town Hall, and the instructions have red outlines where there are all the trans-blue plates are in the model.  Pretty thankful for those ones actually, I rarely get confused on a build but that definitely had me scratching my head a time or two!

    I also like #31026 for parts, if I can find one at around 50% off I'll probably grab another.  The Creator buildings are generally what I'm drawn to collecting anyway but #31026 screams "buy two of me and make me bigger!".
    tecjamkiki180703
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    @khmellymel Thanks for that. I havn't seen the red outlines since the TH, so I presumed they stopped them as none of the newer modulars seem to have them. Glad to know they are still used in certain sets. =)
    khmellymelkiki180703
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    tecjam said:

    Did I read somewhere that the new Pirates theme as been discontinued?

    I don't think it's necessarily that it's getting discontinued (or that it merged with Ninjago, because that's not entirely accurate even if Ninjago will have a pirate-theme to it in 2016). I think it's that these themes - Pirates, Castle, even Space to some extent - will have one-off runs from time to time to gauge overall interest. They probably do okay, but not excellent considering the emphasis on licensed themes these days. So they give them a run, spark some interest, AFOLs get excited because they remember them from their youth, and then they get shelved for a period of time before they can come out again.

    So not discontinued as much as paused until a later time. I think we'll always see non-licensed Pirates, Castle and Space pop up from time to time. Even with slightly different theming (like Galaxy Squad for instance). But they will mostly be one run and then a waiting period. They won't go year to year like City does.

  • Sierra26Sierra26 Member Posts: 50
    Quick heads up #31026 is £37.29 on amazon spain 43% off plus post but if you buy a couple works out quite sensible! Might help someone ;-)
  • AceCobra1AceCobra1 UKMember Posts: 565
    Sierra26 said:
    Quick heads up #31026 is £37.29 on amazon spain 43% off plus post but if you buy a couple works out quite sensible! Might help someone ;-)
    Does amazon UK account work for amazon US ?
  • lleeggoolleeggoo Member Posts: 1
    31026 is listed as 'retiring soon' here in Australia
    CircleKkiki180703
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    ^^ I presume all of 2014/2015 Creator sets will go as soon as the 2016 sets start to come out, some of which already are.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Is there any consistency with a timeline of retiring soon or sold out labels hitting EU or AU sites before the US site?
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    So now 123 (it was 127 this morning) sets are labelled as retiring soon - including the Tumbler, UCS X-Wing, the entire pirates theme and a few lot of others.
  • leetshoeleetshoe USAMember Posts: 252
    tecjam said:
    ^ I managed to grab a 2nd of #31026 at 40% off. I already have one built, but for the price per part I couldn't let a 2nd one slip. I also grabbed a couple more #31036 at roughly the same discount. I quite like the smaller buildings, especially as you can easily beef them up with a 2nd set.

    As for instructions, I quite liked the way the Town Hall Instructions has the newly added parts surrounded with a red line. I wonder why they stopped doing that. It seemed like the best way, to me anyway.

    I think the red outlines are still used, but was just intended to for those builds where it might be difficult to tell that new pieces are required.  I have the Architecture Trevi Fountain #21020 which was produced after Town Hall, and the instructions have red outlines where there are all the trans-blue plates are in the model.  Pretty thankful for those ones actually, I rarely get confused on a build but that definitely had me scratching my head a time or two!

    I also like #31026 for parts, if I can find one at around 50% off I'll probably grab another.  The Creator buildings are generally what I'm drawn to collecting anyway but #31026 screams "buy two of me and make me bigger!".
    The Trevi Fountain was difficult to follow because they have two different colors of clear bricks. And the instructions don't do a good enough job on telling you if you need the darker color or not. So when I was almost done with that, I realized I used the wrong color a while back and had to take it apart.
    eggshenkiki180703hewman
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,245
    TLG's choices for colours to represent some colours can be a major pain. When building her Elves sets, my wife wasted time looking for orange parts more than a few times, only to realise they were referring to something in pearl gold.

    With #41074 & #41075, she had to partially dismantle & rebuild at least once during the builds, because of the instructions. I've noticed a lot of people seem to have this kind of issue particularly with the use of dark colours in the instruction.
    kiki180703xiahna
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^ Ewok Village was similar for me with the two shades of brown when making the trees. Crazy hard to see.
    kiki180703
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,366
    Constantly shocked by Ninjago dragon sets. Was digging through my backlog for stuff to get rid of and was pleasantly shocked to find #70503 pushing the $60 mark.
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    Gone also , is the Cantina ... Seems like it was only yesterday that it arrived( in stores ) ...and I failed to buy one , though I wanted it . 

    At at ....another one I may or may not regret not buying . I once heard someone quote a person in the know that they were in a TLG meeting if sorts and a 4 legged UCS was being slotted for the very near future .. I don't even see a two legged walker in UCS much less all fours. .. Sigh 

    and now you're hearing about a UCS  Snow speeder ....there are better things they could reincarnate ( if they must ) ... Won't even whisper the " MF " word ...

    gosh sh I sound to myself like Marvin the orb robot from Hitch Hikers Guide To the Galaxy ( would I love yo see that in Lego... Yes Marvin a depressed robot with a head rage size of a planet and wandering mind ... From At-At to Marvin in one post ..hopeless 
    kiki180703
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,802
    edited December 2015
    Constantly shocked by Ninjago dragon sets. Was digging through my backlog for stuff to get rid of and was pleasantly shocked to find #70503 pushing the $60 mark.
    It came out at a time when Ninjago was still very popular but there weren't a whole lot of other new Ninjago sets out to take people's attention away. And it was affordably priced, so it didn't have to be clearanced like #70725 Nindroid MechDragon did. Add in that it made its TV debut in an extremely iconic scene from the Season 2 finale, and I can see why demand is high in spite of it arguably being one of the worse Ninjago dragon sets (no ankle articulation, fairly limited wing articulation, and awkward proportions).

    The Golden Lloyd minifigure is being re-issued in an upcoming LEGO Dimensions fun pack ( #71239 ), along with a mini-version of the Golden Dragon. But I don't know if this will reduce demand for the original Golden Dragon or re-ignite interest in it. Lloyd getting a new dragon in #70593 next summer might also help stabilize the price.

    No telling what will happen with #70734 Master Wu Dragon! Ninjago's a much bigger theme this year than it was in 2013, so it's possible this set might have been produced in greater numbers, and that there are enough other sets out now that demand won't be so focused on this one. At the same time, it's possibly the best dragon Ninjago's had, it has an incredible value for money, it's been on at least one "top toys" list for this year, and it might be years before Wu gets another dragon of his own. Like the Golden Dragon, it's also going to be getting a mini-model in an upcoming Dimensions fun pack ( #71234 ).

    Personally I'd encourage people to buy at least one just to have one. If the price goes up you can sell it on (or save yourself the trouble of buying one on the aftermarket), and if the price stagnates or goes down you'll have a really cool building experience to look forward to.
    Yodaliciouskiki180703
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