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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,782
    All I have to say to that is if you're buying them at RRP then you're very lucky.
    Yer such a nitpicker.
    VorpalRyuSeijiAmasawaGoldchains
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,239
    I have not seen @TheLoneTensor doing the picking of the nits, but I have noticed he is somewhat of a grammar fascist... I approve! :)
    SumoLegoSeijiAmasawaxiahna
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,782
    Your write.
    I is always wright.
    bobabricksVorpalRyukiki180703TheLoneTensorSeijiAmasawaGoldchains
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,698
    Know your knot.
    VorpalRyuRainstorm26kiki180703TheLoneTensorkhmellymelSumoLegopiratemania7SeijiAmasawaGoldchains
  • AceCobra1AceCobra1 UKMember Posts: 565
    Would it be wise to get all the larger sets 75917 - 75920 ?
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 1,922
    edited November 2015
    The larger JW sets are available in the UK at [email protected] The only sold out sets are the #75920 raptor escape and the #71205 Dimensions pack. Not sure if the sets were not as popular this side of the pond but I have seen these sets available in other locations. (Just can't remember where as I was shopping with she who must be obayed and didn't really pay much attention to which shops we we going in or out of). So not sure how much you would gain after selling fees etc.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Legoboy said:
    Know your knot.
    That's what Alexander the Great said.
    eggshenLegoboySumoLegokiki180703MasterBeefyGoldchains
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,698
    Legoboy said:
    Know your knot.
    That's what Alexander the Great said.
    Not Baden Powell? 
    hoyatables
  • William_TownsleyWilliam_Townsley Perth, Scotland Member Posts: 880
    Does anyone think they will do an updated version of the Mini Modulars? 
  • William_TownsleyWilliam_Townsley Perth, Scotland Member Posts: 880
    Yes definitely... But in all seriousness the version of MiniModulars is Old now and if They Made a new one they Could Now include the Modulars that have Came out that isn't included in the MiniModulars set 
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,124
    ^ I doubt it.  from all available evidence, the mini modulars was a poor seller and LEGO had to discount it off for a long period of time to eventually sell out of their stock
    Pitfall69madforLEGOFollowsClosely
  • khmellymelkhmellymel United KingdomMember Posts: 1,226
    I really want one (an updated mini modulars) but I too doubt it!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Random email from an Ebay Seller. I guess people are buying up JW and quick flipping them all over.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    dougts said:
    ^ I doubt it.  from all available evidence, the mini modulars was a poor seller and LEGO had to discount it off for a long period of time to eventually sell out of their stock
    Guessing if they were to do another mini mod set it would likely be the 4 after the GE.
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    Looks like someone has a Brickset stalker...........swear it wasn't me.......btw got any Fire Brigades Pitfall?
    khmellymelGoldchains
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,074
    Currently Santa's Workshop is available at around 50€ (RRP 70€),after Christmas these will most likely retire (as others did before) so what are your thoughts? Personally i like the set but i've heard a lot complaints on the forum about it!
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,092
    Is there any way of telling which sets LEGO are going to retire in advance, before they sell out, or is it a case that they suddenly just go out of stock and the disappear from [email protected] or the stores?
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    edited November 2015
    @JudgeChuck ;I suppose it depends .... I've only been out of the dark since May and since then I've seen the Ideas Exo-Suit and the Tower of Orthanc get discontinued.

    The Exo-Suit was listed as 'Retiring Soon' in the [email protected] and then it actually made it to the 'sales and deals' stage.

    The Tower of Orthanc just vanished from one minute to the next.

    Judging from the thread title, it would suggest sets rarely get to the 'Retiring soon' and 'sales and deals' stages, but just dissapear.


  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,873
    I was gonna say tea leaves, but voodoo works too =)
    AanchirRonyarSumoLegokiki180703
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    Is there any way of telling which sets LEGO are going to retire in advance, before they sell out, or is it a case that they suddenly just go out of stock and the disappear from [email protected] or the stores?
    Insider knowledge and not making it public :-)
    VorpalRyuDedgecko
  • JudgeChuckJudgeChuck UKMember Posts: 1,092
    CCC said:
    Is there any way of telling which sets LEGO are going to retire in advance, before they sell out, or is it a case that they suddenly just go out of stock and the disappear from [email protected] or the stores?
    Insider knowledge and not making it public :-)
    Oh, you're no fun! ;-)
  • edgarallanpoe1422edgarallanpoe1422 AustraliaMember Posts: 131
    http://brickset.com/article/17591/the-ultimate-guide-to-collectable-lego-sets

    Interesting to see the degree of anti-investor sentiment in the comments. I always imagined that criticism of resellers was a highly marginal point of view among AFOLs, its prevalence much exaggerated wherever it was brought up. How much do others notice it when the topic is raised among the non-investor component of the community?
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^meh. The comments seem relatively spread in opinion.  I thought it would be a a lot worse from what you said about it.  I quite like the look of the book.  I have no idea the value of all my sets and it would be nice to have somewhere to check them quickly without ages spent cruising the internet.  I also know that at some point I will die and my wife might be left to sort my Lego - it would be nice to know she has some idea of what it's value is before she throws it all in a charity bag.  And she isn't taking any notice of it at the moment to learn!
    (Warning - the next bit turned into a rant by mistake)
    Also, the people moaning about not being able to afford a set just gets me annoyed.  So what, you missed it, move on with your life.  I can't afford an Aston Martin, or a private jet, but I don't keep moaning about it on the internet.  And yes we can site the cost of the bricks isn't the same etc, but the reality is the price of everything is simply determined by what someone will pay.  And if you don't want to pay that much you can't afford it, end of argument.  If you want to blame someone, blame the people with more money than you, that want to pay that much, not the person selling the set!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    Well I will say that I think we are seeing the affects of more and more people trying to buy to sell later on eBay as I see a lot of sets that have stagnated at a price from earlier this year or even dropped a bit, and this is right before the holidays when usually such sets (like FB) start to rise in price. GE actually I think may over take FB in price shortly, maybe that is due to the GB HQ to be released in January, I'm not sure. However, even Town Hall has really gotten stuck where it is at and I think HH may have risen a little but I think it is pretty much staying pat right now as well. EN has not really risen either if I recall correctly. In general, it seems like there is a lull in increases for many of the retired sets on eBay. I'm not sure it is because of a ton of retired product being available in marketplaces OR if the re-release of one set is getting people thing thinking they will release all other expensive retired sets. Then again maybe prices will rise the closer we get to the holidays or shortly after.

    Believe it or don't, but people holding sets to sell later is good for the people looking for an old set long discontinued from LEGO. Because people can rant and rave about people doing this, why LEGO only produces some sets for a limited time and then they are gone (and should be remade), etc. However, at the end of the day, copies of these sets in box after retirement would be MUCH harder to find if there were not folks doing this.
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    edited November 2015

    Interesting to see the degree of anti-investor sentiment in the comments. I always imagined that criticism of resellers was a highly marginal point of view among AFOLs, its prevalence much exaggerated wherever it was brought up. How much do others notice it when the topic is raised among the non-investor component of the community?
    As an AFOL that has just come out of the dark ages that has loads of sets they missed on their 'want list' I'm kind of on the fence about this.

    Without investors/resellers I probably wouldn't be able to get any of the older sets MISB, but I would probably see a lower selling price for sets offered in a used condition.

    I guess it always depends on the sellers themselves. I recently made an offer to someone for #10193 and #7189 combined, which, by my research, was a little less than the going rate on ebay (but he would save ebay fees for one).

    The extremely rude response I received from the seller, rather than making me a counter offer, made me realise that unfortunately not all sellers are AFOL friendly nor have they ever been Lego fans - they can be incredibly rude w*nkers only in it for the greed and this is a market I do not want to buy from nor support - i'd rather go on without having the sets than give my money to someone like that.

    On the other hand, some sellers are forthcoming and happy for the set to go to a place where it will be used and cherished, rather than be sealed away for years only for it to be sold for the highest profit.

    There is a fine line between being a good salesman and an utter greedy wanker.
    TXLegoguy
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    I resent the greedy wankers who are so obsessed with owning a set they will pay these inflated prices.   Their greed really hurts the pure-of-heart AFOL.
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^What makes them less worthy an afol just because they have more disposable income than you?
    MasterBeefy
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    edited November 2015

    tecjam said:

    Interesting to see the degree of anti-investor sentiment in the comments. I always imagined that criticism of resellers was a highly marginal point of view among AFOLs, its prevalence much exaggerated wherever it was brought up. How much do others notice it when the topic is raised among the non-investor component of the community?
    As an AFOL that has just come out of the dark ages that has loads of sets they missed on their 'want list' I'm kind of on the fence about this.

    Without investors/resellers I probably wouldn't be able to get any of the older sets MISB, but I would probably see a lower selling price for sets offered in a used condition.

    I guess it always depends on the sellers themselves. I recently made an offer to someone for #10193 and #7189 combined, which, by my research, was a little less than the going rate on ebay (but he would save ebay fees for one).

    The extremely rude response I received from the seller, rather than making me a counter offer, made me realise that unfortunately not all sellers are AFOL friendly nor have they ever been Lego fans - they can be incredibly rude w*nkers only in it for the greed and this is a market I do not want to buy from nor support - i'd rather go on without having the sets than give my money to someone like that.

    On the other hand, some sellers are forthcoming and happy for the set to go to a place where it will be used and cherished, rather than be sealed away for years only for it to be sold for the highest profit.

    There is a fine line between being a good salesman and an utter greedy wanker.

    So, labeling someone a 'greedy wanker' vs. being a 'good seller' depends on the perception of how good of a deal you get? '

    Someone wants 'X' for the items. You offering 'y' does not mean he should just grovel at your feet and beg you to take away the items for that amount, no matter how fair you may think it is. What you do not know is this, are they really being a 'greedy wanker' or are they trying to feed their kids?

    Also, in the US (Im guessing in other countries as well), it is against eBay policies to circumvent the auctions/listings by cancelling a listing and selling outside of eBay. If eBay has the policies in your country I would say expect a 'No' when someone makes an offer outside of the listing.
    If someone is receiving a rude response in an eBay communication with a seller/buyer, then submit it to eBay for them to review it as I believe that some responses are unacceptable by eBay's standards. Then again, if someone was violating the eBay rules/standards (in their country) by asking to make a purchase outside of eBay then expect eBay to hound the person submitting the complaint as well.

    The problem in general I see is that apparently people think it is OK to treat everything on eBay like it is craigslist or some 'want ad' in the local paper and haggle and try to do so outside of eBay (even though it is listed on eBay). Unless someone posts a 'Best offer' button in their eBay listing they are likely not interested in offers (even if it was 'reasonable' offer in the eyes of the submitter). If they ask for offers outside of eBay again many time I think eBay considers that a policy violation (again at least in the US).
    dougts
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    ^^^ That is not what I said.

    The person in question posted it in a german gumtree type site and all his prices were 'VB', which means as much as 'make me an offer'.

    In plain english: He did not say what he wanted!!

    I made an offer, which was maybe 10 - 20 EUR less than both combined go for on Ebay. I wasn't being cheeky or unfriendly. I was trying to do business and cross off some things on my 'to get' list.
    But instead of receiving a 'sorry, but unfortunately.. .. Hoiw aboiut yoiu add xxx and we have a deal.. ' kind of response I received a message which I regarded non-business like and extremely rude. No doubt he will sell all of his 200 odd sets he has listed to some poor folks out there.

    And no, it had nothing to do with not getting a great deal. That person juist came across like a complete and utter wankstain.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    tecjam said:
    ^^^ That is not what I said.

    The person in question posted it in a german gumtree type site and all his prices were 'VB', which means as much as 'make me an offer'.

    In plain english: He did not say what he wanted!!

    I made an offer, which was maybe 10 - 20 EUR less than both combined go for on Ebay. I wasn't being cheeky or unfriendly. I was trying to do business and cross off some things on my 'to get' list.
    But instead of receiving a 'sorry, but unfortunately.. .. Hoiw aboiut yoiu add xxx and we have a deal.. ' kind of response I received a message which I regarded non-business like and extremely rude. No doubt he will sell all of his 200 odd sets he has listed to some poor folks out there.

    And no, it had nothing to do with not getting a great deal. That person juist came across like a complete and utter wankstain.
    Ah, Ok, confusing when you were mentioning going rate on ebay in your original post, and how your offer would have saved him eBay fees.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    ^^ Are you British living in Germany, or just very good at English colloquialisms? :-)
    roxiokiki180703
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited November 2015
    http://brickset.com/article/17591/the-ultimate-guide-to-collectable-lego-sets

    Interesting to see the degree of anti-investor sentiment in the comments. I always imagined that criticism of resellers was a highly marginal point of view among AFOLs, its prevalence much exaggerated wherever it was brought up. How much do others notice it when the topic is raised among the non-investor component of the community?
    Another example of the fractured main site/forum connection.  I usually have no interest investing in the threads on main site articles because they fade forever away soon as the article does.
    tecjam said:

    As an AFOL that has just come out of the dark ages that has loads of sets they missed on their 'want list' I'm kind of on the fence about this.

    Without investors/resellers I probably wouldn't be able to get any of the older sets MISB, but I would probably see a lower selling price for sets offered in a used condition.
    How are these related?  I agree with your first part (and there's no probably about it - it would be a near certainty you wouldn't be able to get them MISB), but not the second part.  The relationship of supply and demand is always in effect.  This is a really weird thing to even argue actually, because resellers do exist, in Lego and every other collectible, so it's all moot.

    tecjam said:

    I guess it always depends on the sellers themselves. I recently made an offer to someone for #10193 and #7189 combined, which, by my research, was a little less than the going rate on ebay (but he would save ebay fees for one).

    The extremely rude response I received from the seller, rather than making me a counter offer, made me realise that unfortunately not all sellers are AFOL friendly nor have they ever been Lego fans - they can be incredibly rude w*nkers only in it for the greed and this is a market I do not want to buy from nor support - i'd rather go on without having the sets than give my money to someone like that.
    Given the potential penalties Ebay puts on "misbehaving" sellers, either that guy was a moron, or it didn't quite go down like you're describing.  If things go south with you and another human, find another human, but don't generalize others as a result.  Either way, no, Ebay is generally not a bartering situation, mostly because (assuming it was put up at a fair market price), it's a extra hassle for the seller that results in him getting less money, so what's his incentive?  Note, I did write fair market price up there, meaning it'd be just a matter of time for it to sell normally anyway.
    tecjam said:

    On the other hand, some sellers are forthcoming and happy for the set to go to a place where it will be used and cherished, rather than be sealed away for years only for it to be sold for the highest profit.
    Most sellers I assume don't care one way or another.  Me, I don't care because it's none of my business.  Even so, I've found the occasional unscrupulous buyer who is quite happy to lie through his teeth to get score a bargain on sets, so things tend to even out.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    MattsWhat said:
    ^What makes them less worthy an afol just because they have more disposable income than you?
    The purity of my love of LEGO, of course.  :)

    Really i was just applying the strongly negative word of"greed" to characterize the collector who is the partner in setting the market price.   Any hatred sound be equally directed at them both.  Or neither if you choose to consider this like many other economic situations in life.
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    So, #75920 showing as retired on S&H UK.  Can anyone report differently from around the world?  Happened to pick one of these up so happy about that, hardly available at all it would seem. (It's the hard to find Raptor Escape for anyone not wanting to click)
  • JdawgJdawg St. Thomas, Ontario, Canada Member Posts: 83
    MattsWhat said:
    So, #75920 showing as retired on S&H UK.  Can anyone report differently from around the world?  Happened to pick one of these up so happy about that, hardly available at all it would seem. (It's the hard to find Raptor Escape for anyone not wanting to click)
    Raptor escape in Canada is a Walmart exclusive.   I have seen plenty on the shelves in my travels.   It is just a bit down my list of must haves right now.   I know I will kick myself when all the JW sets are gone, but what can you do.   
  • tecjamtecjam Germany / SwitzerlandMember Posts: 255
    edited November 2015
    How are these related?  I agree with your first part (and there's no probably about it - it would be a near certainty you wouldn't be able to get them MISB), but not the second part.  The relationship of supply and demand is always in effect.  This is a really weird thing to even argue actually, because resellers do exist, in Lego and every other collectible, so it's all moot.
    Well, I would say that because of resellers, someone looking to sell their used set can use the current MISB price to base their asking price on.
    Without resellers somebody looking to sell would probably have based their reselling price on the original price paid when they bought the set, not the inflated aftermarket value.

    Oh and I wasn't talking about sending them an offer on Ebay. ;)


    @MattsWhat: Yes, it's also retired in Germany.

  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^although that is slightly true, ebay auctions would still go high in price as more people want to bid on the few sets, people would see the completed listing prices and base on that.  So we would see exactly the same, other than their would be none still in boxes.  And probably far fewer with all the parts still present.

    Anyway, looks like it's (#75920) gone them, head on over the Walmart in Canada if you want one! I guess we should make a prediction on the aftermarket value (or has this thread gone completely?).  Im going to say we will see it somewhere around 1.5x for the forseeable future.  It might drift up, but the presence of the other raptor set limits it for the moment.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    You realize you're predicting (in the foreseeable future) 1.5x, when it's currently already at that.
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    ^yeah, I mean I doubt it will change (much) I guess.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    'Sold outs' are popping up at [email protected] US (though lately 'sold out' does not mean much anymore at [email protected], but anyway) I think the latest notables are:

    #60075 Excavator and truck
    #60057 Camper Van
    #60007 High Speed Chase (guessing someone at LEGO is saying 'thank god' for that one to finally be gone)
    #76012 Batman the Riddler Chase
    #76017 Captain America Vs Hydra
    #76021 Milano Spaceship rescus
    #76019 Starblaster showdown
    #76039 Ant-man final battle
    #31026 Bike shop & Cafe
    #31010 Treehouse
    #31025 Mountain Hut
    #42009 Mobile Crane MK II
    #42029 Customized pick up truck
    #75055 Imperial Star Destroyer
    #75043 At-Ap
    #75038 Jedi Interceptor
    #10240 Red 5
    Some of the older SW battle packs are gone as well now.


    Bumblepants
  • SlapNutsSlapNuts Triad NC, USAMember Posts: 40
    Four #75920-1 Raptor Escape sets showed up at the Walmart near me this morning.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    MattsWhat said:
    ^yeah, I mean I doubt it will change (much) I guess.
    That is one of the most qualified statements I've ever seen :)
    AanchirSumoLego
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    MattsWhat said:
    ^yeah, I mean I doubt it will change (much) I guess.
    That is one of the most qualified statements I've ever seen :)
    I didn't even want to commit to that much to be honest, but sometimes you have to put yourself out there!
    AanchirMasterBeefy
  • DavidBrickleyDavidBrickley Richmond, VAMember Posts: 338

    SlapNuts said:
    Four #75920-1 Raptor Escape sets showed up at the Walmart near me this morning.

    Saw 4 at the one near me yesterday, and 4x of the #75916-1. It's the first time in a while I felt like I was getting a good deal just to be able to find a set on the shelf at MSRP.
    SlapNuts
  • kiki180703kiki180703 Montreal, CanadaMember Posts: 1,027
    Is there any way of telling which sets LEGO are going to retire in advance, before they sell out, or is it a case that they suddenly just go out of stock and the disappear from [email protected] or the stores?
    Magic 8 ball!
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,782
    goshe7 said:
    I resent the greedy wankers who are so obsessed with owning a set they will pay these inflated prices.   Their greed really hurts the pure-of-heart AFOL.
    I find this confusing.  Not sure how someone who is 'greedy' pays inflated prices.  My impression of greed would be to pay the lowest price... and then sell to someone else for more.
    ChubblesMasterBeefy
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I guess greedy as in they will pay a higher price because they have to have the set, thus driving the set cost up???  I dunno.  Simple supply and demand economics at work.
    madforLEGOHaay1971
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