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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    There is a redesigned PC box out there, though no reduction in size.
  • romdamromdam Member Posts: 136

    Ok, who here is hoarding all the Hoth Hans???  

    http://www.bricklink.com/catalogPG.asp?S=5001621-1&ColorID=0

    1026 items, 220 times sold.  Whoever you are, you are halfway to clearing out Bricklink.  Oh, and pm me as I have "a few" as well!

    VorpalRyu
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    edited October 2015
    pet shop is unavailable at my lego.com shop here in austria (europe).

    as for ninjago...

    look at the nindroid mech-dragon for instance. this set has been around for a while. its from the first ninjago wave (white box) and its definitely one of the "uglier" dragon sets. people want to sell it for 40€ MISB. it can still be bought for 80€ in the official lego store!

    people dat grew up with classic 80ies space sets didnt have such a huge supply we have nowadays. there always was just this 1 big spaceship when u went lego shopping! nowadays there is tons of supply.

    i think some sets will crystalise as valuable. some sets everyone will already have, some of them they will get cheap. and some sets will stay utter crap that nonbody wants even if its 50% off retail.
    VorpalRyu
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,921
    brumey said:
    pet shop is unavailable at my lego.com shop here in austria (europe).

    as for ninjago...

    look at the nindroid mech-dragon for instance. this set has been around for a while. its from the first ninjago wave (white box) and its definitely one of the "uglier" dragon sets. people want to sell it for 40€ MISB. it can still be bought for 80€ in the official lego store!

    people dat grew up with classic 80ies space sets didnt have such a huge supply we have nowadays. there always was just this 1 big spaceship when u went lego shopping! nowadays there is tons of supply.

    i think some sets will crystalise as valuable. some sets everyone will already have, some of them they will get cheap. and some sets will stay utter crap that nonbody wants even if its 50% off retail.
    Regarding the Nindroid MechDragon (I guess you meant first wave of 2014, because the first wave of Ninjago was way back in 2011), I ought to bring up that pretty much everyone at LEGO who I've spoken to about Ninjago was very forthright about the fact that the 2014 Ninjago range was rushed. Having to abruptly start the theme back up again after the line reached its originally planned end meant that there wasn't as much time to put into developing the sets and story as there normally is. I wouldn't fault anyone for choosing not to speculate on that year's sets.

    And really, I think any theme the size of Ninjago is bound to have both winners and losers in the aftermarket. Well, except maybe Star Wars? I don't have the patience to go through all the high-priced Star Wars sets and see what they're selling for, but seeing as even some older Star Wars sets and figs I'd consider pretty awful in hindsight still sell for a lot in the aftermarket, it wouldn't surprise me if that theme's a safer investment than most.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,061
    There is a redesigned PC box out there, though no reduction in size.
    I must be a bit odd in that I find the choices in packaging to be interesting.  Nonetheless, perhaps this means all of the modulars will each have a longer shelf-life.  Or it may be based on the sales trends, so if folks keep purchasing these sets a certain rate, than they may stay longer.

    (Part of me was also hoping that they would get rid of the squarish-large box.  They're a complete pain to ship, and there is a lot of dead space in the box, which also affects their durability when stored.)
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    Even the SW range has sets that it is not really worth investing in. Battle packs and other small sets in particular. If you can get 50% off, then you'll probably be able to sell them at RRP given long enough and if you're lucky.

    I had 5 packs of #7913 Clone Troopers that I picked up about 50% off. I tried selling them for about 18 months at RRP on BL. Not one sold. 3 have sold in the UK (at least in GBP) in six months (although at higher than RRP). I ended up opening them and selling the minifigs off. That recouped my investment plus a little bit but nothing special. The bonus were the old skis that are needed for the Cafe Corner. I got lucky there. They ended up being worth more than the minifigs. But if they hadn't, and I hadn't bought at 50%, that set would have been a loss-maker. It seems to be the same as other battle packs, I cannot see any profit in reselling them if bought at RRP.

    Then there are slightly bigger sets like the landspeeder #8092. It is creeping up towards RRP. But less than 10 sell per month worldwide on BL. You've got to be lucky to shift one. There seem to be many other sets like that. The rate at which new ones come out, I don't think people care too much about older ones.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,061

    Aanchir said:

    Well, except maybe Star Wars? I don't have the patience to go through all the high-priced Star Wars sets and see what they're selling for, but seeing as even some older Star Wars sets and figs I'd consider pretty awful in hindsight still sell for a lot in the aftermarket, it wouldn't surprise me if that theme's a safer investment than most.
    I think there are just as many SW sets that don't perform on the secondary market.  There is a certain point where the sets are ubiquitous and can't possibly command astronomical after-market prices.
    VorpalRyuAanchirmadforLEGOkiki180703
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Star Wars always has that minifgures drive however. If there is even just one new or exclysine non droid figure that is sought after, the set will go up as a result of just that. I feel Star Wars is the best AM choice.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    edited October 2015
    Second, it was the third most expensive set (per piece) of all modular sets (behind the TH and PS).
    This got me interested in the cost of the modulars by weight at RRP. The below is based on the weight listed at BL, which I believe reflects a sealed box (so it includes instructions, etc.). Not a perfect measure, but interesting nonetheless.



    If anyone has all the modulars (built) and a good scale, I'd be interested in their weights. ;)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,101
    BACbrix said:
    Star Wars always has that minifgures drive however. If there is even just one new or exclysine non droid figure that is sought after, the set will go up as a result of just that. I feel Star Wars is the best AM choice.
    It would, if LEGO did not also constantly redo the minifigures for most of the SW line.  The reason why I would stay away from most LEGO SW sets is due to the recycling of both vehicles and playsets, but also the figures that come with them, many times making the older figures not as sought after by the general public.
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,977
    I had also noticed how much larger the Ninjago range suddenly is looking. I do expect some duds in all series, and the mech-Dragon is not it. My son who pretty much skipped much of the 2014 range, though, is highly interested in 2-3 Ninjago sets at the moment, two of which are larger pricier ones, and in addition, I want the Airjitsu temple. There are some pretty awesome sets out at the moment in this line. It does not surprise me at all to hear 2014 was rushed, and yes, it looked rushed.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    CCC said:
    Even the SW range has sets that it is not really worth investing in. Battle packs and other small sets in particular. If you can get 50% off, then you'll probably be able to sell them at RRP given long enough and if you're lucky.

    I had 5 packs of #7913 Clone Troopers that I picked up about 50% off. I tried selling them for about 18 months at RRP on BL. Not one sold. 3 have sold in the UK (at least in GBP) in six months (although at higher than RRP). I ended up opening them and selling the minifigs off. That recouped my investment plus a little bit but nothing special. The bonus were the old skis that are needed for the Cafe Corner. I got lucky there. They ended up being worth more than the minifigs. But if they hadn't, and I hadn't bought at 50%, that set would have been a loss-maker. It seems to be the same as other battle packs, I cannot see any profit in reselling them if bought at RRP.

    Then there are slightly bigger sets like the landspeeder #8092. It is creeping up towards RRP. But less than 10 sell per month worldwide on BL. You've got to be lucky to shift one. There seem to be many other sets like that. The rate at which new ones come out, I don't think people care too much about older ones.
    I have a few Luke's Landspeeders left as well. I got them on sale and I have been slowly giving them away as gifts. They fit that price range of gifts that I usually have to get for my nephews. At least I am not heavily invested in them :) 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    And what's worse, it has still got a broken engine.

    I parted mine out, selling off the minifigs.
    Pitfall69SumoLego
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,355
    CCC said:
    Even the SW range has sets that it is not really worth investing in. Battle packs and other small sets in particular. If you can get 50% off, then you'll probably be able to sell them at RRP given long enough and if you're lucky.

    I had 5 packs of #7913 Clone Troopers that I picked up about 50% off. I tried selling them for about 18 months at RRP on BL. Not one sold. 3 have sold in the UK (at least in GBP) in six months (although at higher than RRP). I ended up opening them and selling the minifigs off. That recouped my investment plus a little bit but nothing special. The bonus were the old skis that are needed for the Cafe Corner. I got lucky there. They ended up being worth more than the minifigs. But if they hadn't, and I hadn't bought at 50%, that set would have been a loss-maker. It seems to be the same as other battle packs, I cannot see any profit in reselling them if bought at RRP.

    Then there are slightly bigger sets like the landspeeder #8092. It is creeping up towards RRP. But less than 10 sell per month worldwide on BL. You've got to be lucky to shift one. There seem to be many other sets like that. The rate at which new ones come out, I don't think people care too much about older ones.
    Are the skis from #7913 the same as in Petshop? I think those in Cafe Corner are different
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    I had the ones with hinges. Apparently it came with two types in different batches, and I got lucky in mine.
    roxio
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    edited October 2015
    CCC said:
    Even the SW range has sets that it is not really worth investing in. Battle packs and other small sets in particular. If you can get 50% off, then you'll probably be able to sell them at RRP given long enough and if you're lucky.

    I had 5 packs of #7913 Clone Troopers that I picked up about 50% off. I tried selling them for about 18 months at RRP on BL. Not one sold. 3 have sold in the UK (at least in GBP) in six months (although at higher than RRP). I ended up opening them and selling the minifigs off. That recouped my investment plus a little bit but nothing special. The bonus were the old skis that are needed for the Cafe Corner. I got lucky there. They ended up being worth more than the minifigs. But if they hadn't, and I hadn't bought at 50%, that set would have been a loss-maker. It seems to be the same as other battle packs, I cannot see any profit in reselling them if bought at RRP.

    Then there are slightly bigger sets like the landspeeder #8092. It is creeping up towards RRP. But less than 10 sell per month worldwide on BL. You've got to be lucky to shift one. There seem to be many other sets like that. The rate at which new ones come out, I don't think people care too much about older ones.
    I sold a dozen 7913 I picked up for $6 each after the holidays in 2012 for $43 each on Amazon recently and offoaded about the same number of 8092 for $40 and I only had $11 in each of those.  I'm very pleased with the returns on these. 
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    wait a minute..you people are buying LEGO to sell on to someone else???
    VorpalRyuPitfall69bobabricks
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    I'm not. I'm just here for the Death Star drama.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyubrickupdatePitfall69bobabricks
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,061
    I'm here for the sausage.  And to be told I'm too dumb to understand Star Trek.
    pharmjodVorpalRyukiki180703Pitfall69bobabricksBlueTacoBumblepantswagnerml2
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    Sausage Factory modular is coming 2017.
    VorpalRyukiki180703SumoLegoPitfall69
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    ^Are you sure it will be a modular?
    VorpalRyukiki180703Pitfall69
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,316
    ^ Not only is it a modular, it's the first UCS modular... :D
    kiki180703Pitfall69xiahna
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    SumoLego said:
    I'm here for the sausage.  And to be told I'm too dumb to understand Star Trek.
    I think you misspelled Star Wars. 
    SumoLegoPitfall69Rainstorm26bobabricksMasterBeefycloaked7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    CCC said:
    Sausage Factory modular is coming 2017.
    Great, I can finally get the parts I need for my reverse vasectomy.
    VorpalRyukiki180703BrickarmorPitfall69SumoLego
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I have about 60 hot dog guys, but multiple someone's are gonna be the ones to open them for the sausage fest.
    Pitfall69VorpalRyuexciter1
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,061
    SumoLego said:
    I'm here for the sausage.  And to be told I'm too dumb to understand Star Trek.
    I think you misspelled Star Wars. 
    What's a Star Wars?
    Pitfall69bobabricksVorpalRyuBumblepants
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    ^Really? Like SDI dude - Strategic Defence Initiative! It's only been a thing for like thirty years....Maybe you ARE too dumb to understand Star Trek...
    SumoLego
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I'm just here.....not for any particular reason.  Although I am fairly certain that when DS really does go that this thread will collapse in on itself until it completely winks out of existence ala the house in "Poltergeist".
     
    VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited October 2015
    "Predicktions on Discontinuing Sausages and  Their Secondary Market Value"???
    VorpalRyuMasterBeefykiki180703
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    SumoLego said:
    SumoLego said:
    I'm here for the sausage.  And to be told I'm too dumb to understand Star Trek.
    I think you misspelled Star Wars. 
    What's a Star Wars?
    ^Really? Like SDI dude - Strategic Defence Initiative! It's only been a thing for like thirty years....Maybe you ARE too dumb to understand Star Trek...
    While I think that @SumoLego 's comment was full of sarcasm, I am not so sure yours was. Maybe I am too dumb to understand sarcasm :) 
    SumoLegokiki180703
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited October 2015
    As Patrick Stewart, who played Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings movies is so often quoted, "Use the force, Harry"
    Pitfall69VorpalRyuMasterBeefySumoLegowagnerml2tamamahmkiki180703Goldchains
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,645
    As Patrick Stewart, who played Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings movies is so often quoted, "Use the force, Harry"

    VorpalRyutamamahmkiki180703snowhitie
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    As Patrick Stewart, who played Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings movies is so often quoted, "Use the force, Harry"
    I thought that was X-Men.
    VorpalRyuSumoLegokiki180703
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    As Patrick Stewart, who played Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings movies is so often quoted, "Use the force, Harry"
    I thought that was X-Men.
    Ah, right, the one with Alec Guinness.
    VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
  • bandit778bandit778 Docking Bay 94. Member Posts: 2,257
    Wasn't SDI the one with not Kurt Russell after the film about a gate that never got to Legoland.
    VorpalRyu
  • ricecakericecake Maryland, USAMember Posts: 879
    "You see, the show was banned after the Star Trek wars."
    "You mean the mass migration of Star Wars fans?"
    "No, that was the Star Wars trek."
    VorpalRyuMasterBeefyJamesJT
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,922
    As Patrick Stewart, who played Gandalf in the Lord of the Rings movies is so often quoted, "Use the force, Harry"
    Isn't that the same guy who played Double Doors in the Harry Potter films?
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    We have a lot of clever and witty people on this forum.  Always good for a chuckle.  And, I often need a chuckle.  

    A hot dog guy army.  We'll I guess they could be an 'army'.  Couldn't help but think about the Wicked Witch of the West's witch guards and their chant - "Ooohhhh Eeee Ooohhh"
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,061
    Pitfall69 said:
    SumoLego said:
    SumoLego said:
    I'm here for the sausage.  And to be told I'm too dumb to understand Star Trek.
    I think you misspelled Star Wars. 
    What's a Star Wars?
    ^Really? Like SDI dude - Strategic Defence Initiative! It's only been a thing for like thirty years....Maybe you ARE too dumb to understand Star Trek...
    While I think that @SumoLego 's comment was full of sarcasm, I am not so sure yours was. Maybe I am too dumb to understand sarcasm :) 
    What's a sarcasm?

    (Kudos on the Ronald Reagan reference.)


    VorpalRyu
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Reagan.  Personally, I think he was one of the top U.S. presidents.
    FollowsCloselyMasterBeefy
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^ PRESIDENT?!? Ronald Reagan was an actor. DUH!
    VorpalRyuMasterBeefyGoldchains
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    Hold on, I want to go get some popcorn for this...
    VorpalRyuthedingman5FollowsCloselyGoldchains
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,061
    ^ ?

    I don't think you need any popcorn for Star Wars puns.  Granted, SDI jokes is the Mark Russell realm of old-people humor.  I would suggest getting some metimucil instead...

    Does anyone else consider the Ferris Wheel and the Mixer to be pseudo-Modulars?
    VorpalRyu
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    SumoLego said:
    ^ ?

    I don't think you need any popcorn for Star Wars puns.
    I'm pretty sure that was referring to the possibility of a political debate.
    SithLord196Rainstorm26SumoLego
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    Basically what @binaryeye said.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Rainstorm26Pitfall69SumoLegokiki180703
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