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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • LEGOMAD73LEGOMAD73 STAFFORDSHIREMember Posts: 155

    It seems Tower Bridge and Pet Shop are now showing on [email protected] UK as out of stock with no option to buy.



  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,952
    edited October 2015
    SumoLego said:

    Where is Market Street?
    I knew that question was going to come up. I've plotted and posted similar graphs for the modulars in the past and there's always the endless debate about whether or not MS should be included. Personally, I don't have a preference and probably should have included it...it really wasn't a conscious decision not to include it. I just didn't have it included in my original spreadsheet. Probably need to update that...
    The back of the Market Street box reports it is a modular house, so I would say it does (if that is not where the term 'modular' originated to begin with)


    LEGOMAD73 said:

    It seems Tower Bridge and Pet Shop are now showing on [email protected] UK as out of stock with no option to buy.




    It actually shows as 'Temporarily Out of stock' with no option to buy. All that seems to mean is that they likely have more demand than what they have already back ordered, so doing another back order may take 2 months or more, just a guess.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,596
    Does anyone genuinely believe that Market Street isn't part of the modular line?  

    I make stupid jokes, but you really can't dispute it's inclusion in the line.

    There is probably a better argument that the Grand Carousel is not part of the informal fairground line, and that the Holiday Train is not part of the Winter Village Collection.

    Nonetheless, always appreciate the information so as to further speculate on imminently retiring sets...
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,808
    @SumoLego, I suppose you're going to tell me the Statue of Liberty is part of the Sculptures line now  aren't you?  I don't have it.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyukiki180703AdeelZubair
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,459
    And don't forget Team GB are part of the CMF series.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyukiki180703AdeelZubair
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,808
    edited October 2015
    As is Mr Gold.   That's the killer.  Very few have a complete set.....and they know it!
    Pitfall69SumoLegoVorpalRyukiki180703MasterBeefyAdeelZubair
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,430
    Legoboy said:
    As is Mr Gold.   That's the killer.  Very few have a complete set.....and they know it!
    Yup and that is me. You're inside jokes about me not having the MS are not going unnoticed, but it is still ugly and I guess it is part of the Modular line...just far inferior. 
    pharmjodSumoLegoFarmer_JohnLegoboyVorpalRyukiki180703juggles7MasterBeefyAdeelZubair
  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    Let's face it.... MS is just the red headed step child of the family. Still part of the family but nobody wants to play with it.
    SumoLegoVorpalRyuGoldchainskiki180703MasterBeefycloaked7AdeelZubair
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,596
    edited October 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    Legoboy said:
    As is Mr Gold.   That's the killer.  Very few have a complete set.....and they know it!
    Yup and that is me. You're inside jokes about me not having the MS are not going unnoticed, but it is still ugly and I guess it is part of the Modular line...just far inferior. 
    My thoughts exactly.

    http://brickset.com/sets/subtheme-Modular-Buildings

    Did @Huw update the database?  Or was it always that way?

    (And I only consider Mr. Gold, the Toy Soldier and Team GB part of the CMF Collection because I have all three.  If I didn't, I'm sure I could come up with some rationalization and justification for not possessing them...)

    Legoboy said:
    @SumoLego, I suppose you're going to tell me the Statue of Liberty is part of the Sculptures line now  aren't you?  I don't have it.
    Isn't it?  Although I'm not quite sure the distinction between a "building" like the Eiffel Tower, and the Statue of Liberty.  It's technically a building.  You can get one with a base from ToddMyers.  (Less a few thousand dollars, of course!)

    http://brickset.com/sets/subtheme-Sculptures
    VorpalRyukiki180703
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,808
    @SumoLego, yeah.  The database is wrong.  MS is missing isn't it? SoL is.  Database is wrong.  ;)
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited October 2015
    I'm guessing it only really matters to those who have a need for their collection to be complete.

    I don't get the need to be complete thing. I really don't. I would never buy something I dislike or don't really want for the sake of collecting. At the same time, I have been around here long enough to know that collectors come in all shapes and sizes and each of us are a different kind of crazy.


    pharmjodTheLoneTensorVorpalRyukiki180703RonyarAdeelZubairLostInTranslation
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    It looks like Guardians of the Galaxy is about to go. Some stores have it greatly reduced and [email protected] has a couple of the sets as "retiring soon." I actually liked the movie and do like the minifigs. Don't know how well it will perform post-EOL though.

    Either way, now's the time to buy if you've been on the fence...
    SumoLegoVorpalRyukiki180703Pitfall69
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 761
    I BL'ed MS.  So, do I own a modular...?
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,808
    Pitfall69 said:
    Legoboy said:
    As is Mr Gold.   That's the killer.  Very few have a complete set.....and they know it!
    Yup and that is me. You're inside jokes about me not having the MS are not going unnoticed, but it is still ugly and I guess it is part of the Modular line...just far inferior. 
    Ugly it may be but just because it's ugly doesn't mean it should be loved.  Hey?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,596
    SumoLego said:
    Does anyone genuinely believe that Market Street isn't part of the modular line? 

    The more interesting question is why it matters.
    What else would we bandy about in between announcements?  And complaning about announcements or the lack of announcements.
    LegoboyTheLoneTensorVorpalRyukiki180703Pitfall69Lego_Star
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,952
    It looks like Guardians of the Galaxy is about to go. Some stores have it greatly reduced and [email protected] has a couple of the sets as "retiring soon." I actually liked the movie and do like the minifigs. Don't know how well it will perform post-EOL though.

    Either way, now's the time to buy if you've been on the fence...
    Yeah, Amazon has the Milano and the Knowhere escape on sale, tempted to buy them to at least get the team.
    SumoLegoPitfall69
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    That's all I cared about, was getting the team. Although I thought the movie was just okay..

    But I do believe they are doing a sequel, so they will get all new suit variants to collect..yippy...
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    SumoLego said:
    SumoLego said:
    Does anyone genuinely believe that Market Street isn't part of the modular line? 

    The more interesting question is why it matters.
    What else would we bandy about in between announcements?  And complaning about announcements or the lack of announcements.
    Absolutely, it's great entertainment, but still funny that some care so much about such a loosely held standard.  And this is from a completionist too.  I tend to agree with whomever said that it all depends on if you own it or not.  Hmm, that being the case, there's no way it's a modular :)
    SumoLego
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,316
    SumoLego said:
    SumoLego said:
    Does anyone genuinely believe that Market Street isn't part of the modular line? 

    The more interesting question is why it matters.
    What else would we bandy about in between announcements?  And complaning about announcements or the lack of announcements.
    Galidor & Construct-a-zurg? *lol* :D
    Lego_Starxiahna
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,596
    ^ Agreed, but I think Lego really sets the standard themselves on this one... repeatedly.

    If I'm a completionist Batman minifigure collector, am I compelled to get the figure that comes with the Batman Visual Dictionary, the Dimensions Game, the DVD exclusive, the SDCC Exclusive, and all of the ones from the Lego Movie - even those aren't technically 'Batman' sets?

    Yes.  

    If they make a special 100-figure limited exclusive for everyone that worked on the Batman Video Game, and hand deliver them to Christian Bale for distribution as he sees fit... 

    No.  

    (But if I can get one, that'll differentiate my collection from the next guy.)
    VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,430
  • chuckpchuckp NYMember Posts: 684
    ^ Nice, a Commando meme. That's old school.
    SumoLego
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    To get a little back on track, what ya´ll think about Ninjago-Stuff in the after market? Currently i could get #70728 (Ninjago City) for 54€ (RRP is 110€)! The Minifigures alone from the set don´t seem to be in high demand (BL Prices are rather low on these) but it looks like a set that even AFOL´s might be interested in due to the Building...Should i buy a few of these? Never invested in a Theme like Ninjago before!
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299


    haha another one back from the dead
    TOO.jpg 107.3K
    kiki180703SumoLegobobabricksGoldchains
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    O My Words ....
  • brumeybrumey AustriaMember Posts: 1,002
    edited October 2015
    darnit... so these ninjago spinjitsu spinners are officially part of ninjago? always thought they come from china ands are no official lego product!
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,376
    ^That might be the strangest random post I've read in this thread....and there are some amazing off-topic tangents amongst the 553 pages...
    kiki180703Pitfall69LegoboySumoLegojuggles7Lego_Starbobabricks
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366

    Diggydoes said:
    To get a little back on track, what ya´ll think about Ninjago-Stuff in the after market? Currently i could get #70728 (Ninjago City) for 54€ (RRP is 110€)! The Minifigures alone from the set don´t seem to be in high demand (BL Prices are rather low on these) but it looks like a set that even AFOL´s might be interested in due to the Building...Should i buy a few of these? Never invested in a Theme like Ninjago before!

    I'm not sure the Ninjago minifigures will have huge value down the road. There are so many variants (which range from very cool looking to blah) and it doesn't have the power of a Star Wars or Superheroes line. Sure, it is immensely popular, but mostly among kids. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of the latest line and like a number of the newer minifigs, but it doesn't have me going back and buying versions of Zane from two or three years ago for instance. I just want the ones I think look kinda cool vs. having to have the latest version of Batman for instance.

    Not that it won't do well long-term - I'm sure the new temple and some of the larger buildings will do great thanks to cool designs (like Ninjago City) - but I have a hard time seeing many people desperately hunting them down 10-20 years from now. I'd see it then more as...

    "Hey look, LEGO used to have this ninja line that had games and a TV show and stuff."

    "Hmmm, neat."

    "HEY! I finally got Killer Croc!"

    "COOL!!!"

  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    So Orthanc is back.

    Still not sure I want it, but I think it's interesting it's coming back in stock. Perhaps they did a final production run for the Christmas season?

    That seems like the most logical thing to me, but this is Lego we're talking about.
    madforLEGO
  • MattsWhatMattsWhat Studley, UKMember Posts: 1,643
    Doesn't seem to be back in the UK shop though :(
  • kiki180703kiki180703 Montreal, CanadaMember Posts: 1,051
    edited October 2015
    ^ It's only available in North America as far as I know.
    MattsWhat
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    If I was into castle / fantasy layouts then the ToO would be at the top of my wish list. There's never been a more perfect representation of a dark wizards tower in Lego form before. I'm only a casual LotR fan, but if I was a kid I would have wanted it and would have played with it outside of the LotR universe. 
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,897
    edited October 2015
    brumey said:
    darnit... so these ninjago spinjitsu spinners are officially part of ninjago? always thought they come from china ands are no official lego product!
    Well, there ARE fake Ninjago spinners out there. Do the ones you have say LEGO on or inside the studs? If they do, they're probably real.

    The 2011 Ninjago spinner sets, including minifigures, were made in China just like the collectible minifigures. The 2012 spinner sets were not, except for certain specialized printed elements like Serpentine heads.
    Diggydoes said:
    To get a little back on track, what ya´ll think about Ninjago-Stuff in the after market? Currently i could get #70728 (Ninjago City) for 54€ (RRP is 110€)! The Minifigures alone from the set don´t seem to be in high demand (BL Prices are rather low on these) but it looks like a set that even AFOL´s might be interested in due to the Building...Should i buy a few of these? Never invested in a Theme like Ninjago before!

    I'm not sure the Ninjago minifigures will have huge value down the road. There are so many variants (which range from very cool looking to blah) and it doesn't have the power of a Star Wars or Superheroes line. Sure, it is immensely popular, but mostly among kids. Don't get me wrong, I'm a big fan of the latest line and like a number of the newer minifigs, but it doesn't have me going back and buying versions of Zane from two or three years ago for instance. I just want the ones I think look kinda cool vs. having to have the latest version of Batman for instance.

    Not that it won't do well long-term - I'm sure the new temple and some of the larger buildings will do great thanks to cool designs (like Ninjago City) - but I have a hard time seeing many people desperately hunting them down 10-20 years from now. I'd see it then more as...

    "Hey look, LEGO used to have this ninja line that had games and a TV show and stuff."

    "Hmmm, neat."

    "HEY! I finally got Killer Croc!"

    "COOL!!!"

    Well, those kids who are enjoying Ninjago today will be adults one day. Classic LEGO Space was unmistakeably aimed at kids, but today the aftermarket prices for those sets can be crazy.

    I think a bigger limiting factor on Ninjago resale value will be a lack of scarcity (is that a double negative?). Most of the time, Ninjago sells like hotcakes in the primary market. Thus, there are a lot of Ninjago sets out there in kids' collections. And when many of the kids inevitably decide they've outgrown those sets (I'm sure by this point some already have), I can easily see the market being flooded with low-priced Ninjago sets and figs.

    The $120 sets like #2507 Fire Temple, #9450 Epic Dragon Battle, #70728 Battle for Ninjago City, and #70738 Final Flight of Destiny's Bounty might hold onto their value better than others since fewer people can afford them in the first place, and thus there will probably be fewer out there than, say, spinners.

    Hard to say what the situation might be with figs. Enemy leader characters with distinctive parts like Samukai, Skales, Fangtom, Acidicus, Pythor, and Skalidor seem to accrue value quite nicely. At conventions I see these regularly go for $25–$30, around the same price as some moderately rare licensed figs. Among other more recent figs, the new version of Pythor is already priced almost as high as the old one. By contrast, last year's Overlord fig, which only came in Battle for Ninjago City, is not climbing in value as fast as I'd have expected, perhaps because he's a more standard minifigure and thus less appealing parts-wise to general fantasy builders.

    The NRG figs from 2012 (Kai, Zane, Cole, Jay) also seem to be briskly rising in value. Each of these figs only came in one spinner set. If there were any current figs I'd compare to these, it'd be the Airjitzu Kai, Zane, Cole, and Jay figs. Each of these likewise comes in just one $10 spinner set, besides Zane who also comes in #70731. Lloyd DX, Lloyd ZX, and Golden Ninja Lloyd are all rising in value faster than I'd have expected, but the last of these might start to decline again once the LEGO Dimensions pack containing this fig is released.

    I think you could probably turn a profit on Ninjago figs, but you'd absolutely have to be smart about it.
    juggles7LostInTranslation
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366

    ^ Don't disagree with anything you said. Great points. A theme to be very smart with if you want to invest in it.

    But, I wouldn't necessarily compare it to Classic Space. That's an entirely different animal and nearly 40 years old now. Also near the beginning of the minifig era. AND it wasn't from today's era of people collecting and stockpiling. Part of the reason it is so hot today is because it's not easy to find at all. When Ninjago is 30-40 years old, it'll be scarce too, but not in the same way LEGO sets from the 1970s and 1980s are.

    Sethro3pharmjodmadforLEGO
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^ That may be true, but I buy ALOT of used collections.  Many of those collections come from teenagers looking for money to buy a car or computer or the like (ie entering a dark age).  There are alot of Ninjago sets in those collections.  I could see them wanting to reacquire their collections at a later date and while there may be more sets available because of people stockpiling sets, what is more important for a theme like Ninjago is a constant stream of people willing to purchase.  I think in that vane, Ninjago could be compared to Classic Space. There will be a generation wanting to reacquire their childhoods and there will be a stream of sets available for that purpose.
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    Although, interestingly enough.. classic space: White astronaut, Blue, Black, Red....same as Ninjago. Ninjago added in a green ninja and Exo-Suit gave us a green spaceman...did they have a yellow spaceman? That could be the equivalent of the gold ninja. Just look to classic space to know how Ninjago will go... (all a joke, but interesting observation).

    But I agree, classic space (and most 70s/80s/even early 90s LEGO) are difficult to come across at decent prices, but some of that can be inflation, plus lower stock, plus nostalgic tax. Certainly classic space has a much bigger following than Futuron, but I'm sure Futuron is still not cheap in the aftermarket.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    But, I wouldn't necessarily compare it to Classic Space. That's an entirely different animal and nearly 40 years old now.

    I don't see it as that much different. Yes, there were likely less people buying LEGO then and there were fewer people buying for a sealed collection or resale. But how many people are currently buying Ninjago for resale, let alone resale 20 or 30 years from now? Probably not many. There will surely be a large amount of used Ninjago available 20 years from now. But how much in sealed boxes?

    The main difference I see is there are a lot more sets these days, so determining which to invest in might not be as obvious.

    Also, nice avatar @wagnerml2
  • chuxtoyboxchuxtoybox Member Posts: 711
    SumoLego said:

    (And I only consider Mr. Gold, the Toy Soldier and Team GB part of the CMF Collection because I have all three.  If I didn't, I'm sure I could come up with some rationalization and justification for not possessing them...)

    How did you acquire Mr. Gold? Did you crack him in a pack or buy him aftermarket and if the latter how much did you pay, if you don't mind me asking. (And if you don't mind answering.) :)


  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,459
    pharmjod said:
    I feel sorry for anyone buying any Lego theme to resell with a 20 year timeline.
    It would not surprise me if it happened along the lines of bought for relatively quick resale, doesn't go up enough, stays in cupboard, suddenly it is 15 years later.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    That is a definite possibility. I was more talking about trying to decide if ninjago (or any theme) is gonna have a nostalgia factor in 15-20 years and planning to buy and hold accordingly. That is madness.
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    Tower of Orthanc just went back to sold out
  • madejp86madejp86 IllinoisMember Posts: 282
    edited October 2015
    I also believe the pet shop will be first to go retired. It has been out for a long time
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I was just at our local Lego store over lunch and noticed a few different things.

    First, Ninjago now takes up a substantial chunk of the wall space, which was kind of surprising to me.

    Second, they had very little of the Jurassic World sets left on the shelf, which I think doesn't bode well for that theme. I ended up grabbing a couple JW sets to get the Christmas Train set.

    Third, I was a little disappointed that the store manager had moved on to another store. He was an awesome representative for TLG, and even my kids knew and liked him. The new manager was promoted from within and is a nice guy, but always seems a little too serious and strict for a toy store employee. If he loosens up a bit, he'll be fine. Time will tell...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Okay...as promised, here's the Modular Set Longevity Graph that includes the Market Street set. In the process of putting this together I did learn a couple things about the MS set that others probably already knew.

    First, this set was available for less than 1.5 years which is by far the shortest shelf life of any modular set. It brought the overall average availability life for EOL'd sets down more than 100 days, which is significant.

    Second, it was the third most expensive set (per piece) of all modular sets (behind the TH and PS).

    Third, and how do I say this delicately....it's the ugliest of all the modular sets. Subjective I know. I still remember back when it was available and its general lack of impressiveness is probably one of the reasons I balked at purchasing it then. And while I still regret not purchasing the CC or GG when they were available, missing out on the MS doesn't bother the completist in me.


    Rsa33
  • DawnDawn GoldMember Posts: 247
    Ah the elusive Green Grocier (than MS ?) ;-)
    ericb
  • YodaliciousYodalicious DagobahMember Posts: 1,366
    ^^^ Ninjago taking up so much space has a lot to do with how many sets they've had this year. The TRUs near me are the same way just to accommodate all the sets. A good amount of which are of substantial size too. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,596
    The more I stare at that graph, the more concerned I am that both the Cinema and the Pet Shop are on the brink.  

    I don't like to read into box designs, but it also concerns me that we haven't seen a redesigned Palace Cinema box.  With the Bank being a corner modular...

    For those holding out hope that the Palace Cinema will be around another cycle...now may be the perfect time to panic!


    VorpalRyukiki180703MasterBeefyLego_Star
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited October 2015
    ^Yeah, that was the other thing I noticed at our local Lego store...the box sizes for the PS and PC are huge compared to the other boxes. Forgot to mention that in my earlier post.

    I also agree that having two corners buildings at the same time seems unlikely. The PC may not go this year, but I have a hunch it will be gone by the first quarter of 2016.
    VorpalRyu
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