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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value
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Comments
After I get one: $2,500.00 will do just fine....
Alternatively (as @ecmo47 said), it should be possible to BrickLink a Bat-Pod; otherwise, why would Lego bother providing the instructions once the sets are distributed? Keep in mind that some of the parts in the Bat-Pod images are getting much more scarce...probably because many people are storing up to build it.
What is the going rate for the sdcc batmobile? That's an exclusive batman set that's bricklinkable.
Among shoppers, some sets aren't well-known. DA seems to be one of those. Shoppers go to the secondary market, looking for Quidditch Match, Hagrid's Hut, and the Castle. They've either forgotten or never knew about DA. They neither search for it, nor buy it.
DA is a laggard. It has appreciated 150%, while the other 3 sets I mentioned have appreciated over 300%. I would sell it in late November.
The Bat-Pod will be more difficult to BL parts-wise based on my experience BL-ing the SDCC set and trying to BL the Bat-Pod from the images. At this point, the only place to get the Bat-Pod wheels are from a parted-out UCS Tumbler set or directly from TLG (while they still have them). But it gets worse from there...the tricky piece seems to be Part# 92222, which is getting extremely difficult to acquire. And unfortunately, the Bat-Pod requires 6 of those! TLG will have to release those parts in other sets before it becomes an easy BL project. On the other hand, the SDCC Batmobile was an easy BL project (I built 5 myself).
(Wishful thinking!)
Wishful thing? Maybe...
I guess the real question is will there be parts (aside from physical instructions and box) that would not be available via another method (Like LEGO parts direct or BL, brickowl, etc)?
I think the other question really is about how much would someone pay for something that, by appearances at this time, that you could DL the instructions and somewhat easily build from BL, especially if there are many folks that will be doing just that to sell them as an an affordable alternative on eBay?
Now if there are parts only obtainable by getting this set (and no way to substitute those parts) maybe it rises to Mr Gold levels, but I do not think you can take limited availability as a sole marker comparing to something like Mr Gold IMO.
I don't see it becoming a regular retail set at any point in the foreseeable future, especially since the new Batmobile from Batman v. Superman will almost certainly be the bat-vehicle Warner Bros. is most keen on promoting for the next few years.
Note: I am a fan of the Christian Bale Batman movies, and love the UCS Tumbler. As for Ben Afflect and his ilk, I'm not a fan.
As for Batflec, i was horrified by the idea for the first year solid. But the latest trailers that connect him to MoS demolition of NY did a lot to soothe my anxiousness & fears of him as Bruce/Bats. Plus it retroactively redeemed a lot of critical points on MoS. However, the CGI still scares me in terms of how crappy it can turn out. Like the part where Supes is hovering and laser blasting at the same time, looks like a cut scene from a video game.
Interestingly enough, it's gone from a quantity limitation at [email protected] of 1 to 2 and now back down to 1 again. Not sure what's up with that...probably just a constraint for resellers. But like @BrickDancer said, I can see it being available for longer. I'm just picking it for my wildcard set for this year (aka Town Hall).
than Salve One. So although they are likely to be around a good while which do you think will appreciate more when they are gone?
Sandcrawler>Slave-1>Red Five>TIE
This is partially based on existing data and history of #10144 Sandcrawler, #7191 UCS X-wing, #10175 TIE Advanced, #7181 TIE Interceptor.
#10144 Sandcrawler outperformed at ~$300 NIB (2.15xRRP) until the new UCS version came out. It had solid interest and demand.
#7191 UCS X-wing performed well until time since EOL was taken into account (~10 years). It was hitting in the neighborhood of ~$500 NIB (3.3xRRP) and ~$350 used until Red Five came out.
#10175/#7181 Both TIEs were not desired much on the aftermarket until after 2012. I was able to pick up the Advanced at $200 NIB and the Interceptor at ~$130 Used. This is after about 3 years and 10 years post-EOL roughly. So if the Fighter holds similar, then I do not expect it to outperform.
Slave-1 falls into the iconic/extreme fan segment. The pace of increase will be a big question, but not the max ceiling as I expect this one to outperform in the long run. I'm thinking 4xRRP at 5-7 years post-EOL is not out of the question. The UCS Falcon took about that long to reach 6xRRP.
I build virtually all my sets so I don't want to get into the hoarding MISB sets game but am interested to see how much value you "lose" by actually using Lego as it is intended to be used.
I suppose if you buy 2 of each set one day you can sell the "spare" set and almost cover the cost of both original purchases!
- Factory sealed box (new)
- Factory sealed bags (new)
- 100% new bricks (new)
- Used
As it goes down the list, I simply make it crystal clear in the description, including any major creases or smushes that are above "normal shelf wear."You assume the sealed Lego box is in awful condition since the seller is secretive about it. But often they'll reply it's in great shape and send you photos to prove it. You would think that sellers would share information about their item when that information would help them to get more money for the item.
It's a shame Ebay won't let you identify bad buyers like him, by leaving a well-deserved complaint. But, of course, you can't.
There are some people you CAN NOT please no matter what. Don't call it anal, don't call it being picky. It's ABSOLUTELY ridiculous. I've left neutral feedback on a person that clearly didn't put the effort into packaging because the set I pulled out was totally CRAMMED in there. Yet, I don't even bother to leave negative/neutral feedback anymore because even that time the seller has complained to eBay that they gave me a good deal or whatever. It's just a hassle for me. Dealing with these kinds of people is not called DOING BUSINESS. It's called appeasement. Appeasement for the whiny and disconnected.
And again, everyone's viewpoint is subjective to themselves. I see a good priced set, in good condition. The buyer sees something he had to blow $200 on and oh boy, it better be perfect or it's not even worth the time. It's called buyer's remorse.
YES, THE ONLY WAY TO GET A PERFECT BOX IS TO GO TO THE STORE AND PICK THROUGH ENOUGH UNTIL YOU FIND THAT SPECIAL ONE. SO IF YOU WANT THAT, THEN GO GET IT YOURSELF. Jeez