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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,355
    The only stock levels that they employees definitively know are what are in their stock room and not on the floor.

    They don't know what sets are coming in October.  The manager may have some idea of what is coming in the next shipment that week, but certainly not months in advance.  (Other than new releases with specific release dates.)
  • KavsterKavster London, UKMember Posts: 75
    SumoLego said:
    The only stock levels that they employees definitively know are what are in their stock room and not on the floor.

    They don't know what sets are coming in October.  The manager may have some idea of what is coming in the next shipment that week, but certainly not months in advance.  (Other than new releases with specific release dates.)
    Ahh I see. I've never really worked in retail so don't know how it works!

    I guess it really is just a case of having to wait and see! 
    SumoLego
  • cooldude00cooldude00 ukMember Posts: 44
    it sounds like PS is going to have a longer shelf life than most ppl think if Lego is still churning them out... could be one of their best sellers!

  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    juggles7 said:
    Looks like retailers are going to clearance the SW Rebels sets right away, now that the Force Awakens sets are here. Let's hope for some really good deals on Ezra's Speeder, the Ghost, and the Phantom.

    Just saw yesterday the B-wing and Ghost half off at Target.  Although Target had the original price on the Ghost at $106 & then 50% off that.
    juggles7
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think my favorite modular that's currently available is the Parisian Restaurant. I like the color scheme and it seems like a decent value for the price. If it happens to pull a TH someday, then I think it will really appreciate well post-EOL.
    ryjayjuggles7
  • TheUltimateTFOLTheUltimateTFOL Texas, USAMember Posts: 153
    Anyone ever feel like they want a set to EOL so they don't feel guilty about not getting it? I like to make the excuse of it's too expensive now.
    Kavster
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,480
    juggles7 said:

    As for the rumor that PS is sticking around another year as a 'LEGO only Exclusive', well it would stand to reason that will occur with the PC as well next year. (to be honest they are so hard to find available at a retail online store -non-LEGO site- they may as well already be 'exclusive' to LEGO.)

    Actually, after a long dry spell, TB, PS, and PC have all been popping up at Amazon, Walmart and Target's online sites. The stock don't last long, I agree.

    I don't think either PS or PC will be gone by the end of the year, especially with the PS just getting a box redesign. 

    @madforLEGO , do you have an opinion as to how much longer the Volkswagen Camper Van will be out?  It's been with us for 4 years.
    My personal feeling is it is gone at the end of year/ beginning of '16. From what someone ( I believe @doriansdad ) said previously, it and DS were extended a year and that was last year. So I presume it is close to going. I would just say this. If you want one, buy one now, or buy one during Oct Double points if you care to try to wait. Yeah yeah the DS is available again now so who knows. However this not November, which is when EOL sets appear to typically run out of stock permanently. Just my 'two cents'.

    Store employee information is usually misinformation or anecdotal speculation, which in my opinion, is (more often times than not) worse than no information at all.
    Agreed. I cannot tell you how many times a store employee said something was gone, but was still out for 6 months to a year (specifically the FB). I know one thing, the LEGO store I frequent only has so much shelf space, so typically they only have the last two Mods out on the shelf.


    Kavster said:
    Store employee information is usually misinformation or anecdotal speculation, which in my opinion, is (more often times than not) worse than no information at all.
    This is a fair point. I can see the logic in it. If they had said that, say for example, "we're not getting any more PC as it's going EOL" - I'd agree with you.

    But, when all they've done is tell me information about stock levels, can that not be trusted? 

    Store employees are typically unreliable because they sometimes know less than the AFOLs that walk in their door. Some are more knowledgeable to be fair, but just check the last 500 odd pages in this thread alone to see how many times an employees info was off. To be sure I also think those in the know are told to not reveal such info.  I may consider an employee's word for more are being made, as they have nothing to gain from it (as that means you will likely wait and not buy something on the spot), but I still would not want to rely on someone making near minimum wage to dictate my buying habits, but that is just me.
    I will add that Just because they are making another batch does not mean it is not ending production after it.
    Yeah yeah LEGO being what it is you really cannot tell necessarily. There were those who have manufacturer catalogs or other info that implies if this set or that set is going. But to be fair, that info should also be taken with a grain of salt.
    I will just say that if you want a PS (or a VW for that matter), buy it now. The set is 'stale' and is on borrowed time, whether this year or 12 months from now.

    KavsterTheLoneTensorjuggles7
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,355
    ^ Or five years from now...
    VorpalRyuRainstorm26
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391
    Anyone ever feel like they want a set to EOL so they don't feel guilty about not getting it? I like to make the excuse of it's too expensive now.
    I only want a set to EOL, so I can see the price go up ;)
    pharmjodTheLoneTensorSumoLegokiki180703LegoboyFollowsCloselyMasterBeefy
  • bok2bok2 Member Posts: 53
    juggles7 said:

    I don't think either PS or PC will be gone by the end of the year, especially with the PS just getting a box redesign. 
    I have looked all over (including [email protected]), can anyone provide a picture of the new PS box? Does anyone know the dimensions of the new box?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,355
    @Pitfall69 posted a photo awhile back.
  • kiki180703kiki180703 Montreal, CanadaMember Posts: 1,044
    Pitfall69 said:
    Molican said:
    SumoLego said:
    ^ More rectangular box?  Same size as the Detective Office?
    The box has the same old size, 58cm x 48cm. It has the new logo with the Erling/headlight-bricks in the upper right and also the piece count printed, which is not common on the EU boxes afaik. The piececount also differs, it's 2194 instead of 2196.


    @bok2 
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Personally, I like the new size. It takes up less storage space, which is quickly becoming an important attribute in my collection of Lego sets.
    SumoLegopharmjodTheLoneTensorLegoboyPitfall69madforLEGOMasterBeefyJohnnyfinlandia
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,355
    Much easier to ship, as well.
    pharmjodFarmer_JohnTheLoneTensormadforLEGO
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,355
    Those squarish modular boxes are a nightmare.
    Pitfall69madforLEGO
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,887
    A 24x20x4 shipping box perfectly fits the old style boxes but they cost a little bit to buy. I prefer the new size as well.
    Pitfall69madforLEGO
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 901
    Is there anywhere in the UK I can buy a 24 x 20 x 4 box off the shelf?  I've always struggled with this size tbh seems to be a custom one!
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,887
    ULINE sells them in the US. I imagine many shipping supplies companies in the UK would have them.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 901
    Sadly not, it's the 1 size I struggle to find unless I have custom made at £2.50 each :(
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Steve, search for "corrugated boxes 24 x 20 x 4" at google, ebay , amazon, etc. "Off the shelf"? You'll pay an outrageous amount for single shipping or moving boxes at UPS, Lowes, Home Depot, etc. Uline boxes are thick, sturdy, and superior to what Amazon uses, for example. Uline typically has an annual sale of 40% off. Last year the sale ran early December to late January.
    sir_Bricksalot
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 901
    Has to be UK juggles7, I've found them available in the USA as you say but no where in the UK :(
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    https://www.ascdirect.co.uk/stock-boxes 
    This company will do that size , 25 for £19
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited September 2015
    For storage of larger sets, I found some double walled/corrugated 24x24x20 heavy duty microwave boxes at U-Haul. They are a bit steep in price (around $7), but can hold up to 120 pounds. Several of the largest-sized Lego boxes can fit inside, and more importantly I can stack several of them without worrying about about the contents of the bottom box.

    As for packing, I've learned to pack the Lego boxes snugly in a vertical configuration; not laying flat in a horizontal configuration. Set boxes seem to hold their shape better when they're standing on end with other sets (or the cardboard box side) on either side.

    http://www.uhaul.com/MovingSupplies/Boxes/Electronics-boxes/19-TV-Microwave-Box?id=3460

    madforLEGObrickupdate
  • bok2bok2 Member Posts: 53

    As for packing, I've learned to pack the Lego boxes snugly in a vertical configuration; not laying flat in a horizontal configuration. Set boxes seem to hold their shape better when they're standing on end with other sets (or the cardboard box side) on either side.

    How does you prevent that the postman turns your vertical into horisontal?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited September 2015
    ^I've found it to be more of a long-term storage problem...not a shipping problem. The biggest shipping problem I have is the game of warehouse soccer or warehouse wack-a-mole.
    madforLEGODougout
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 901
    Milne44 said:
    https://www.ascdirect.co.uk/stock-boxes 
    This company will do that size , 25 for £19
    Can't find them anywhere on the ASC site sorry
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    edited September 2015
    The ideal box is a 24" x 4" x 20" S/W FOL style box in the US, I forget the style number for UK.  Sometimes people will refer to them as frame boxes or art boxes.  What is nice about a FOL style is it has greater crush strength and no worries of internal cutting when opened or tape issues on product.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,480

    For storage of larger sets, I found some double walled/corrugated 24x24x20 heavy duty microwave boxes at U-Haul. They are a bit steep in price (around $7), but can hold up to 120 pounds. Several of the largest-sized Lego boxes can fit inside, and more importantly I can stack several of them without worrying about about the contents of the bottom box.

    As for packing, I've learned to pack the Lego boxes snugly in a vertical configuration; not laying flat in a horizontal configuration. Set boxes seem to hold their shape better when they're standing on end with other sets (or the cardboard box side) on either side.

    http://www.uhaul.com/MovingSupplies/Boxes/Electronics-boxes/19-TV-Microwave-Box?id=3460

    Thanks @Farmer_John ! Do you know how many of the old box mods fit into one of these? 4, 5,6?
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    stevemack said:
    Milne44 said:
    https://www.ascdirect.co.uk/stock-boxes 
    This company will do that size , 25 for £19
    Can't find them anywhere on the ASC site sorry
    Go to the box builder tool page and chose your thickness and choose your customisations
    with L 240 x W 200 D 50, then that it
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited September 2015

    Thanks @Farmer_John ! Do you know how many of the old box mods fit into one of these? 4, 5,6?
    On average it looks like 5 of the larger sets because some sets are deeper (thicker) than others. The key is that these boxes are 24x??x20, so they will fit a large set. You can then purchase a wider box (the middle "??") to fit the number of large sets you want to hold.

    I would suggest going to an even bigger U-Haul box if the majority of your sets are the larger variety. U-Haul sells a 24.5x24.5x27.5 TV box that is spec'd at 120 pounds and would likely hold at least 1-2 additional large sets depending on their depth. These go for almost $10 each, which averages to less than $1.50 per large set. They wouldn't be a lot of fun to move, which is why I went with the size I did. And remember...these are the average number of large sets that can be held for each respective-sized box.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 901
    Milne44 said:
    stevemack said:
    Milne44 said:
    https://www.ascdirect.co.uk/stock-boxes 
    This company will do that size , 25 for £19
    Can't find them anywhere on the ASC site sorry
    Go to the box builder tool page and chose your thickness and choose your customisations
    with L 240 x W 200 D 50, then that it

    That wont work given that 24x20x4 translates to 600x500x100 in mm lol!

    double wall they work out to £2.50 ish each
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    stevemack said:
    Milne44 said:
    stevemack said:
    Milne44 said:
    https://www.ascdirect.co.uk/stock-boxes 
    This company will do that size , 25 for £19
    Can't find them anywhere on the ASC site sorry
    Go to the box builder tool page and chose your thickness and choose your customisations
    with L 240 x W 200 D 50, then that it

    That wont work given that 24x20x4 translates to 600x500x100 in mm lol!

    double wall they work out to £2.50 ish each
    So it does! Need to go back to school lol
    kiki180703
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Underachievers in the aftermarket:

    #7939 Cargo Train and #7938 Passenger Train
    #41999 Exclusive Technic Crawler
    #10937 Arkham Asylum

    These sets were climbing upward, then flattened, then turned down. You can see the charts for yourself at brickpicker or at camelcamelcamel.

    As for the trains, I can only guess they are being hurt by the discounts we're seeing on the new ones. Maybe a holiday bounce is near, but I wouldn't count on it.

    What about the Crawler? Some said it would be helped when the regular Crawler retired, but it has not. The group of potential buyers for a regular #9398 Crawler would be a lot different than the group of those who would purchase the exclusive. Speculators help to fuel the rise in something like a rare Exclusive, but there's no momentum for them to chase. The last thing a speculator would want would be something that's flatlining like this set. I hate it, but if this were a stock, there's no doubt the chart is screaming SELL.

    (The mintiest packaging I ever saw is a 41999 I'm keeping under lock and key. I'm generally a believer in the concept that nothing is ever perfect, but this blue box is possibly a c10. I gave up looking at it in a bright light, trying to find anything wrong with it. There's not one single scratch, blemish, bump, or bruise. It's a thing of beauty, let me tell ya. But I digress...)

    I'm most puzzled about the AA. The set was out 2 years, and caught many by surprise when it retired. Reviews of the set were positive. So why is its chart going the wrong way? I know the line is getting overproduced. I understand how Jokerland is hurting some of the older sets, etc. But I'm still puzzled over this set losing ground.


  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,480
    First I do not think you can take prices in summer as an estimate. I know some swear that they sell in the summer just fine, but I believe that it is likely that the indoor months tend to see more people get into their LEGO habit or pick it up around then.
    That being said even the Maersk train seems a bit stagnated. The #7939 and #7938 are a bit puzzling and were not going up even before the discounts found on the newer sets. Normally I would not think much of this except the #3677 is also under performing I think.  Maybe there just is not much of a frenzy for the trains lately. As for AA, I think it will rise this holiday season, but I also think it shows many many appear to be available in the after market which is likely one reason for depressed prices. Plus if any figures appear in cheaper sets that will hurt the value as well.
    I think the #41999 is doing well considering the glut bought up by resellers. Many did not think much of #41999 so I'm guessing it is just corrected for the demand.

    So in total I think these are good examples of the effect of reselling, but not the whole story. I think that the economy is still hurting a bit and people may be doing better but do not have the disposable income to blow on recent EOL sets.
    It is also possible that people are waning a bit on LEGO right now, at least big time AFOLs with the lack of discounts and how many 'expert' or larger sets that would have more demand are well over 100 USD (150-250) and I think that turns off many folks as well.
    preverejuggles7
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,887
    Will be interesting to see if the suicide squad movie moves the needle on Arkham.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,355
    prevere said:
    ^One additional note on AA - as with nearly all the Super Heroes sets, it's all about the figs. And when they can be had cheaply, most of that through Chinese fakes, it hurts the value of the real fig. In the past I think sets like this were highly sought after for the figs, but now with all the parting out and fakes - the value is diminished.

    THE BOTTOM LINE: The # of people willing to pay double retail for a set like this is LESS THAN what it used to be. Meanwhile the # of people selling sets like this has DOUBLED. 
    I blame the resellers!  They're ruining the secondary market for sets they are hoarding...
    VorpalRyuCCC
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    In my experience (which is just one subjective take), the lack of discounts that we enjoyed back in 2012 has made "easy money" a bit less easy, for resellers and potential resellers. Not sure if that has affected the secondary market at all, or if my subjective view bears any relation to reality. 

    As a collector, there are simply too many amazing sets to buy. So I miss out on Arkham, you have that new huge Joker set now available. So I missed out on SSD, now I have Ewok Village, Slave 1, X-Wing, SandCrawler, and a wave of new movies coming. 

    It is genuinely too much to keep up with. I'm not complaining, but it means that I buy 1% of what I would like to buy. A GREAT "problem" to have as a collector, but for resellers, it means I am not jonesing for that one elusive set.

    Looking at my Super Hero minifig collection alone, it's already pretty massive. If I am missing a figure, the DOZENS and DOZENS of others already produced, and which will be produced in the years to come, lessen my "need" to complete things. 

    To "complete" the modular lineup, even paying MSRP for every single set is still more than $1,300. JUST for modulars, and nothing else. 
    juggles7prevereCurvedRoadPlategoshe7dougts
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    ^ Agree on a lot of this.  I have a pretty small list of retired sets that I highly desire.  I am more than content to keep up with present sets that I also highly desire while waiting for the right deal to come along on the retired sets.  

    I would expand on the minifig collections.  The sheer numbers available for any particular theme that may interest me (SW, SH, CMF, LotR, Chima, etc.) coupled with some really expensive exclusives pretty much wipe out any "completionist" desire I have.  Add in the unknown LEGO production plans and there is virtually no reason I am compelled to pay premium prices.  

    Case in point: I would like to have a Scarecrow minifig and the only way to get the recent iteration is in AA.  But I don't need him to "complete" anything and I am willing to bet LEGO will release another variant of him in some set in the future.  So for me, one of the common foundations for high aftermarket value (unique desirable licensed minifigs) simply fails to persuade me that the value is there.
    juggles7
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 901
    Hoarding/reselling is becoming a tricky game given how many people now do it!
    SumoLegojuggles7kiki180703
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    edited September 2015

    What's the consensus for people still holding onto Diagon Alley. I wasn't able to sell last xmas, and decided to wait.  Is $400 this xmas a peak or is this a good long term set?

  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    ^ There is a new movie coming out soon which may re-invigorate interest in Harry Potter sets but I note sure it will cause DA to increase much more. The current going price is around $320.00 which is more than double MSRP. I don't see it going much over $400.00. 
  • PmhPmh netherlandsMember Posts: 128

    Think everyone has to give up on investing in lego.

    A few sets in the past did very well because they are truly rare but that can not be said for any of the sets stocked after 2012. They been on the shelves for ages, so many people who wanted one could have bought one, or stocked up on them. Then there is also tons of new sets coming out every year. How many people would truly be in the market for grand emporium at 250 euro ea?.

    Then people stocking up on pet shops, its dead money. People been stocking them up for 2-3 years. And when it will finally go eol they will all sit at ebay to sell for 200 and it will take forever to sell and even longer for it to ever reach 250.

    Can see it in the adds on ebay,just look at how many are offerd and how many are sold every month. And then there is a huge amount of stock that isn't even listed on ebay.

    Then the quality of lego, the wall-e.

    Somewhere in the production process someone must have noticed that the head was not ok. They must have noticed it and decided to go ahead anyway. its beyond me how this could have happened but ok.


  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,284
    edited September 2015
    ^ Yes, lets all give up on investing in Lego, pinky swears.... *crosses fingers behind back* :D
    pharmjodPitfall69SumoLegojuggles7madforLEGOkiki180703Goldchainsxiahna
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,879
    With all the negatives going on...there are some positives. 1) LEGO continues to drive new themes and licensed products - each time this taps potential new hobbyists who are opened up to the universe that LEGO is. 2) I don't know many boys or girls, say 5, who don't like LEGO. It's the core audience that constantly rotates and feeds itself. 4) More and more adult interest is growing. 3) Overseas growth overall is a good thing (albeit with some really bad side effects from the China counterfeits).
    FollowsCloselyblack_towrkiki180703
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited September 2015
    Pmh said:

    Think everyone has to give up on investing in lego.

    A few sets in the past did very well because they are truly rare but that can not be said for any of the sets stocked after 2012. They been on the shelves for ages, so many people who wanted one could have bought one, or stocked up on them. Then there is also tons of new sets coming out every year. How many people would truly be in the market for grand emporium at 250 euro ea?.

    Then people stocking up on pet shops, its dead money. People been stocking them up for 2-3 years. And when it will finally go eol they will all sit at ebay to sell for 200 and it will take forever to sell and even longer for it to ever reach 250.


    Interestingly enough, the same thing was said in this very forum regarding the #10197 Fire Brigade. That set seemed to last for ever, and eventually became a running joke. I picked up a spare, but that was all I could ever persuade myself to invest in. Fast forward a couple years, and the FB seems to have done okay for itself (better than I would have expected).

    It's taken me some time, but I've finally come to the realization that some sets do well post-EOL no matter how many copies have sold. The questions should really be "What's the magic formula to determine which sets will do well regardless?" The closest I can come to an answer (it's really still a non-answer) is simply that fewer and fewer sets are doing really well post-EOL.
    Milne44BrickDancerpreveremadforLEGOPitfall69kiki180703
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    Look at the SSD selling for over £600 only 10 mouths down the line after EOL and TH selling for over £400 now. The bubbles still got air in it!
    FollowsClosely
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I knew the SSD was going to do well, but just couldn't bring myself to spend $400 on a set that didn't enthuse me...even for a personal copy. I honestly still don't regret it. The TH is another matter...
    madforLEGOTheLoneTensorbobabricks
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,340
    It's still all about choosing wisely and your buy-in price point. I sold 3 small/medium sets today for total £93. RRP would have been £66. Actual buy-in was £35. 
    Yes you have more volume to move to make big £ that can be had on the large sets. But with the smaller sets you know they aren't going to be around forever like DS, VW Camper, TB etc (which I have some of as well).

    BumblepantsFarmer_JohnMilne44
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