Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

kiki180703 · August 2015

^ which country is this in?

Edit: I guess US?
i just went on the website and it's sold out

juggles7 · August 2015

I like a nice, quick EOL. Like the kind Horizon Express had. It was call to check for a few hours, then sold out, then never returned. None of this Lazarus it-shay.

Bricklover18 · August 2015

@kiki180703 it's now sold out at [email protected] US.

cloaked7 · August 2015

prevere said:

I scrolled back to October 2011 and I still can't figure that out.

That makes two of us. I'm glad this thread has a title, otherwise I would really be lost. Ahem... Well, I mean, more lost than I am.

But, I must admit, even amid all the confusion and faux threads within the thread, I do learn something now and again. Like, I didn't know Gandalf was into mountain biking. Just when you think you really know a person.

juggles7 · August 2015

Brickarmor said:

Sea Cow is "call to check" on US [email protected] And I wonder if the restocked PS has a snazzy new box.

I got a Pet Shop today from Amazon. It's the same old box from 2011.

ecmo47 · August 2015

Exo-suit now sold out at US Lego.com. Still available at Target. Think it will go up? I'm thinking it will be $50.00 by the end of Sept which is about double your money if you got it on sale.

goshe7 · August 2015

^ That's a whole lot of profit for the 3,275,165 copies that resellers have stashed before they realized it was going to be available for a long time.

(Although I am surprised BTTF has gone up as much as it has. Shows what I know. ;))

ecmo47 · August 2015

^ Of course if you missed out, there are only 989 available on Bricklink right now so it may take a while to move at $50.00+.

TheUltimateTFOL · August 2015

SumoLego said:

^^ Beat me again!

Can I jaywalk into Mordor to seek some Lego trains?

And don't call me Shirley!

Wait...was that a quote from CoD 4? On an TFOL/AFOL Forum?
Surely you can't be serious. :wink:

TheUltimateTFOL · August 2015

I'm going to go back to the Sea Cow. I think this set will be one of those that you see at retail price a couple of years later. It is a good enough set, with a classic Lego feeling and a fun build. It has lots of playability for little kids and even as a display model it would look impressive. However, I think a lot of people passed on this one because they though that it didn't count as a ship. The resellers probably bought a lot of these, thinking it was a great flagship set for a relatively popular line, but it wasn't as popular as they thought. I personally really wanted this one but ended up choosing the Temple of Airjitzu over it, and between my next two potential purchases, the Sea Cow and the Detective's Office, I'll probably go for the Detective's Office. Probably going to try to find a good deal on the aftermarket, as I have yet to acquire a single Lego ship (unless you count the Destiny's Bounty). As for whether or not it is retiring, it says Sold Out but we've all learned not to trust Lego on these things. The first wave of Lego Movie sets are all either retiring or retiring soon, but I think they'll make one last batch of these and then retire it with all of the wave 2 Lego Movie sets, but this is just my opinion.

VorpalRyu · August 2015

TheUltimateTFOL said:

SumoLego said:

^^ Beat me again!

Can I jaywalk into Mordor to seek some Lego trains?

And don't call me Shirley!

Wait...was that a quote from CoD 4? On an TFOL/AFOL Forum?
Surely you can't be serious. :wink:

CoD? More like Leslie Nielsen, from the movie Airplane... :)

Pitfall69 · August 2015

juggles7 said:

Brickarmor said:

Sea Cow is "call to check" on US [email protected] And I wonder if the restocked PS has a snazzy new box.

I got a Pet Shop today from Amazon. It's the same old box from 2011.

Are you sure? I posted pics of the new box a couple of months ago.

Molican · August 2015

^The cinema I bought 2 weeks ago also has a new box design with the new creator logo...

SumoLego · August 2015

^ More rectangular box? Same size as the Detective Office?

SithLord196 · August 2015

Red Five has gone from being Sold Out to having a ship date of September 8th.

Not sure if I'll be able to swing one, but at least there's still a chance. I'm surprised it's not officially EOL though.

littlepuppi · August 2015

How long do people think wall e will be around for?

juggles7 · August 2015

TheUltimateTFOL said:
The first wave of Lego Movie sets are all either retiring or retiring soon, but I think they'll make one last batch of these and then retire it with all of the wave 2 Lego Movie sets, but this is just my opinion.

Bet you a million dollars they don't do another batch of wave 1.

Pitfall69 said:

juggles7 said:

Brickarmor said:

Sea Cow is "call to check" on US [email protected] And I wonder if the restocked PS has a snazzy new box.

I got a Pet Shop today from Amazon. It's the same old box from 2011.

Are you sure? I posted pics of the new box a couple of months ago.

Yes, I'm sure; I double-checked. 'Course if you say there's a redesigned box, I believe ya. I just somehow got an older one.

littlepuppi said:

How long do people think wall e will be around for?

I'll take a shot in the dark and predict that Christmas 2016 will be the end of it.

Bumblepants · August 2015

Ultra Agents Ocean HQ now Call for Availability in US. I was going to wait for the free polybag in Sept but just placed an order as I do not want to miss this one. Will be interesting to see if the limited run of this set and the shark base will escalate in the aftermarket or not. Personally, I think UA is one of the best lines Lego has done in awhile and we have enjoyed them quite a bit. Obviously sales records are saying otherwise though.

VorpalRyu · August 2015

@Bumblepants, have you seen any of those three in stores anywhere? Someone is meant to be grabbing them for me & sending them over, I've got all the rest, not wanting to miss out on the last three. :(

ColoradoBricks · August 2015

^ TRU still have them online and several stores in the US

dougts · August 2015

Bumblepants said:

Ultra Agents Ocean HQ now Call for Availability in US. I was going to wait for the free polybag in Sept but just placed an order as I do not want to miss this one. Will be interesting to see if the limited run of this set and the shark base will escalate in the aftermarket or not. Personally, I think UA is one of the best lines Lego has done in awhile and we have enjoyed them quite a bit. Obviously sales records are saying otherwise though.

Sales say otherwise because all most anyone cares about these days is licensed minifigs and LEGO is putting most of their efforts toward catering to that crowd

Aanchir · August 2015

dougts said:

Bumblepants said:

Ultra Agents Ocean HQ now Call for Availability in US. I was going to wait for the free polybag in Sept but just placed an order as I do not want to miss this one. Will be interesting to see if the limited run of this set and the shark base will escalate in the aftermarket or not. Personally, I think UA is one of the best lines Lego has done in awhile and we have enjoyed them quite a bit. Obviously sales records are saying otherwise though.

Sales say otherwise because all most anyone cares about these days is licensed minifigs and LEGO is putting most of their efforts toward catering to that crowd

I don't see why you say that. As I understand it, the three top-selling lines right now are Star Wars, City, and Friends, and only one of those is licensed. Ninjago is also extremely popular right now.

Really, Star Wars and Super Heroes are the only current licensed themes that seem to be a huge deal year after year, and I honestly don't even know how Super Heroes rates compared to other lines. After all, even if you combine DC and Marvel, there are a lot more new Ninjago sets out this year than Super Heroes sets.

If you're talking AFTERMARKET sales (as in the subject of this topic), well, that's a whole different ball game, but I don't see LEGO really concerning themselves too much with that, and I don't see how it would make a big difference for Ultra Agents sales.

dougts · August 2015

City and Friends are both evergreen themes, and Friends is obviously kind of in a category of it's own as well.

I stand by my underlying point - LEGO (and what seems like the majority of LEGO collectors) have become obsessed with the minifigure and I think the rest of the product suffers because of it.

juggles7 · August 2015

What would be a good example of that, @dougts ? Do you mean something like the second and most recent SW Gungan Sub, a mediocre build with the one sought-after unique minifigure, Amidala?

brownbricks720 · August 2015

@TheUltimateTFOL In my own opinion I really don't see Metal Beard's Sea Cow increase a lot in price when it retires. I am personally not a fan of the set. I did buy one off of craigslist for 75$. I dont plan on scraping it for pieces. Since I got such a good deal on it, I'll just sell it. Some collectors may not view metal beards sea cow as a good investment.

pharmjod · August 2015

For $75, build it! It's a really interesting build, at least for me it was.

TheLoneTensor · August 2015

brownbricks720 said:

@TheUltimateTFOL In my own opinion I really don't see Metal Beard's Sea Cow increase a lot in price when it retires. I am personally not a fan of the set. I did buy one off of craigslist for 75$. I dont plan on scraping it for pieces. Since I got such a good deal on it, I'll just sell it. Some collectors may not view metal beards sea cow as a good investment.

Besides the fact that I think this thing will go up only barely, if at all, this is the perfect example of a set that I have so no interest in, which means I'd never ever buy it. I find an extra benefit of this approach to be that even if the thing does go up 4x, even then I won't ever regret not getting it.

SumoLego · August 2015

I agree. I don't see any innate reason for the set to appreciate at a greater rate.

Nobody is having the same discussion when it comes to Benny's Spaceship or Brickbeard's Bounty. They're nice playsets, but nothing that I would expect to be disproportionately desirable once it goes EOL.

And I definitely don't think there is some rabid Lego Movie fan base that will keep the prices on the twenty sets at some inflated rate.

I think the sheer volume of different TLM sets indicates that TLG knew this was a quickly burning candle/phenomenon - so they cashed in. The last round of sets were very modest and had minifigures for just about all of the major characters.

piratemania7 · August 2015

I am very disappointed with my Benny's Spaceship purchase. It's a fun and nostalgic throwback for a weekend, and cool to build and look at. But if I knew I would feel this way after I wouldn't have purchased it. I fell for the massive hype and just had to have it. I don't see the aftermarket value skyrocketing or it's becoming a benchmark retired set of sorts.

LegoTT · August 2015

Agreed with the bearish sentiments on Benny's Spaceship...however, if I could score one on clearance for $50- I'd be in for a good weekend build!

AceCobra1 · August 2015

Just wondering, I have the ATOT 10195 which seems to be going for about £275ish used. I asked a few months ago and there were some posts here to say if I were to list it, try to get rid of it before Sept. - I'm assuming it might be to do with force friday? Since the new wave of SW lego doesn't include the ATOT, is it safe to assume that it isn't going to be rereleased for now?

Pitfall69 · August 2015

^Can you find those comments pertaining to your query? The only thing I can remember is the MF being talked about in detail. We have had the list of the first wave of Star Wars TFA for awhile now, but we were just waiting on the actual pictures. I do not see why anyone would tell you to get rid of your set before September 4th???

ryjay · August 2015

@AceCobra1 ...do you think people meant for you to start selling it by September as that seems to be the start of the holiday on line buying season?

Molican · August 2015

SumoLego said:

^ More rectangular box? Same size as the Detective Office?

The box has the same old size, 58cm x 48cm. It has the new logo with the Erling/headlight-bricks in the upper right and also the piece count printed, which is not common on the EU boxes afaik. The piececount also differs, it's 2194 instead of 2196.

Bumblepants · August 2015

Sea Cow back with a Sept 15 ship date in the US

Pitfall69 · August 2015

Molican said:

SumoLego said:

^ More rectangular box? Same size as the Detective Office?

The box has the same old size, 58cm x 48cm. It has the new logo with the Erling/headlight-bricks in the upper right and also the piece count printed, which is not common on the EU boxes afaik. The piececount also differs, it's 2194 instead of 2196.

dragonhawk · August 2015

^ So is the new Pet Shop taller by 2 cm or shorter by 2 cm than older version? I cannot keep up anymore :P

cloaked7 · August 2015

Back in the day it was just grocery items. Now it's LEGO. I can't wait until they have a "New Bigger Size" banner emboldened across the front. Errr.... or would it be "New Smaller Size"? :-) Now, where are my reading glasses? I may need them soon.

Aanchir · August 2015

dragonhawk said:

^ So is the new Pet Shop taller by 2 cm or shorter by 2 cm than older version? I cannot keep up anymore :P

I'm guessing one box counts the chimneys and the other doesn't, or something silly like that.

ReesesPieces · September 2015

dragonhawk said:

^ So is the new Pet Shop taller by 2 cm or shorter by 2 cm than older version? I cannot keep up anymore :P

The new one, like the newer modulars, have a smaller box.

madforLEGO · September 2015

I would rather have the boxes that are thicker, but about the same site as LEGOs existing 'large' theme set boxes as those store easier than the ones that are about 22X20 (old Mod boxes)

I still think that this rash of Box redesigns are nothing more than LEGO trying to standardize their set boxes (for things like easier shipping and storage calculations) and does not mean anything about future production, but that is just my guess on this.

juggles7 · September 2015

Predictions on discontinuing sets? As for the large sets, Sea Cow and Red Five are already on the ropes, showing signs of EOL. I think their end is near, even if it's not imminent. After that, the Volkswagen Camper Van, Pet Shop, and Tower Bridge are all uh... mature offerings, I guess you could say. I feel certain at least one of those won't survive the holidays and won't be available in 2016. What will go first? I'll go with the Van, TB, and PS in that order. Secondary market value? They will all rise, will all do okay, but with so many resellers out there, profits won't be anything to brag about. None of these will get anywhere close to the gains seen on the Haunted House or the UCS R2-D2. All 3 of these sets are very nice, don't get me wrong. They've just been out too long.

pharmjod · September 2015

Depending on where they go with the modular series and how much longer Pet Shop lingers, it might surprise you. No other buildings are two in one like it is.

TheLoneTensor · September 2015

juggles7 said:

I'll go with the Van, TB, and PS in that order. Secondary market value? They will all rise, will all do okay, but with so many resellers out there, profits won't be anything to brag about. None of these will get anywhere close to the gains seen on the Haunted House or the UCS R2-D2. All 3 of these sets are very nice, don't get me wrong. They've just been out too long.

I get what you're saying, but I don't agree with the absolutes you're sprinkling in there.
All three of the sets you mention are absolute winners in my eyes for multiple reasons (TB: impressive/huge & iconic, VW: baby boomer gem, PS: uniquely 2-in-1 as @pharmjod mentions, and it's a pet shop and people always love cute animas). The fact that they have been out too long or that there are so many in closets is so miniscule to the argument. When they are EOL, I very much like the potential of all three, and would hate to be in a position to pick one up after the fact as opposed to right now.

Sethro3 · September 2015

ReesesPieces said:

dragonhawk said:

^ So is the new Pet Shop taller by 2 cm or shorter by 2 cm than older version? I cannot keep up anymore :P

The new one, like the newer modulars, have a smaller box.

I think they meant the actual set height, not the box (although that is interesting how the box size differs). But the actual set one is taller than the other if you look at the measurements on the front of the box.

SithLord196 · September 2015

dougts said:

City and Friends are both evergreen themes, and Friends is obviously kind of in a category of it's own as well.

I stand by my underlying point - LEGO (and what seems like the majority of LEGO collectors) have become obsessed with the minifigure and I think the rest of the product suffers because of it.

I agree with this to a point. I feel like the Superheroes sets and the Star Wars sets have suffered in quality because of this, more so the Superheroes sets.

I just... do not like them. Lego knows they're going to sell, but to me the Superheroes builds really do leave something to be desired, especially the newer ones.

Sethro3 · September 2015

^That's the thing. LEGO knows minifigures are what sells those licensed sets, yet they don't give that many desireable minifigures either. How many Spider-mans and Batmans are there before variants happen. So you get repeat figures AND a terrible build most of the time. Some sets only having 1 desireable figure. Yes, I realize, that may be good marketing because you sell the set for $x for only one figure, but that also leaves a lot of people not wanting to buy the set at all and buy the figure from the aftermarket. Sure, LEGO got their money from the original reseller, but they could have sold more copies had they put better figures or a better build into it...just my thoughts.

prevere · September 2015

On the fig note...the illegal figs are really taking a toll on the Super Heroes line for resellers. Either with saving sealed sets for resell or parting out. I suppose sealed sets will continue to rise, albeit slowly. But used sets, where a buyer is nervous about fakes - will suffer greatly.

prevere · September 2015

Let's put it this way. My spending on Super Heroes sets compared from 2012-2013 to 2014-2015 is down about 95%.

TheLoneTensor · September 2015

prevere said:

On the fig note...the illegal figs are really taking a toll on the Super Heroes line for resellers. Either with saving sealed sets for resell or parting out. I suppose sealed sets will continue to rise, albeit slowly. But used sets, where a buyer is nervous about fakes - will suffer greatly.

Maybe, but if a person has a used set, and it's 100% complete part-wise, I think it's safe to assume that the figs coming along with it are legit also. Again, talking sets here, not individual figs. That's a whole different ballgame where I totally agree with you.

Also, don't forget, having a seasoned seller with great feedback is always vital to this or any transaction. Buyers should always use this to help reduce their risk of getting burned.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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