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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Thanos75Thanos75 Member Posts: 1,120
    I helped out with Sam's army aswell....but after seeing that awesome Helms Deep I may end up regretting it. I think I have six or so Helms Deeps left so that should make a good dent in it.
    bluedragon
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I think I have 4 helms deep with one of them missing mini figures and 5 of the army / wall expansion set. Debating whether to buy the instructions or not for the big one. I'm afraid I might regret it =)
    bluedragon
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,382
    I went 11 deep with the tower. I am a believer, not crazy enough to go above a dozen.
  • sir_Bricksalotsir_Bricksalot Member Posts: 110
    FollowsClosely said:
    I went 11 deep with the tower. I am a believer, not crazy enough to go above a dozen.
    Personally I think this was a great call.  I'm not really an army builder and prefer stand out sets that are great builds.  This I believe is one of them.   + if i ever get round to making my post apocalyptic street scene I've got a great vision of this standing next to a looted pet shop :)

    Helms deep is another good one I like but it seems relatively well stacked at the current going rate so I wouldn't expect to see much more there (well maybe a pre x-mas boost but then to come back in the new year).
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    I have 8 ToO tucked away, but I love LOTR, amazing set though and the only flagship.. I think it will do fine.
  • vaspvasp Member Posts: 73

    amazon.com has Indominus Rex Breakout 75919 in stock. If supply continues like this, this set might be a good bet for the holidays


    Yodalicious
  • YodaliciousYodalicious Member Posts: 1,366
    vasp said:

    amazon.com has Indominus Rex Breakout 75919 in stock. If supply continues like this, this set might be a good bet for the holidays


    Thanks for the heads up. Went ahead and got one. Been waiting for it to come back in. 
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    Looks like Red Five is gone. Guess I waited a little too long. The plan was to get it next month when some money freed up, but oh well. 
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    Won't we start to see a ramp up in chatter soon especially as we get closer to September and the beginning of the fall and the holiday shopping season?
  • MojoestMojoest Member Posts: 477
    With the new Millennium Falcon just around the corner, what are peoples views on the prices seen for #7965 ? I don't collect the SW theme but manager to pick one up (still MISB) on sale at about this time last year and the price has risen nicely since then with some going for over £200 on ebay. With the new one looking to be a very similar, but more detailed build, do you think this will mean that resale prices for #7965 will start to tail off? 
  • PmhPmh Member Posts: 128
    edited August 2015

    Now that the winter toy store got a remake the big question on every resellers mind is off course:what set will be next.

    To me the earlier modular buildings seem to be the most likely to get a remake though I do not realy expect it. A remake of cafee corner would be nice though.


    Too is awesome,its my only lotr set and its one of the favorit sets I own.

    Only other set I would want to have from that series is the pirate ambush ship. it is absolutely beautifull and highly underrated. People say its not a real ship and that It is to low but its meant to be like that,its more like a barge then a ship and I think its one of the best lego ships out there. Will definitely buy this when I see it for sale and would not mind overpaying slightly.

    prevere
  • juggles7juggles7 Member Posts: 451
    Mojoest said:
    With the new Millennium Falcon just around the corner, what are peoples views on the prices seen for #7965 ? I don't collect the SW theme but manager to pick one up (still MISB) on sale at about this time last year and the price has risen nicely since then with some going for over £200 on ebay. With the new one looking to be a very similar, but more detailed build, do you think this will mean that resale prices for #7965 will start to tail off? 
    I'm no expert on the minifigures in the first set vs. the minifigures contained in the upcoming set, which might be an important factor. But if you're looking for free advice, I'm seldom lacking an opinion. In general, the release of similar items usually causes the prices of the original to either level off, or fall.  If I were you, I would sell it soon. The peak of the aftermarket value of the older Falcon is probably near. At least for a very long time.

    On the other hand, there is just no telling how much the #7965 could eventually be worth.  If you held it until the new Falcon eventually retired (and this could be 2-3 years or more) then you might really have a winner.  But during those years, it'll just be dead money, showing no appreciation. 

    You've got a good situation. You're going to win out either way. It's just up to you. If you prefer fast dimes to slow dollars, sell it now. If you have a great deal of patience, hold it indefinitely. 
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    Mojoest said:
    With the new Millennium Falcon just around the corner, what are peoples views on the prices seen for #7965 ? I don't collect the SW theme but manager to pick one up (still MISB) on sale at about this time last year and the price has risen nicely since then with some going for over £200 on ebay. With the new one looking to be a very similar, but more detailed build, do you think this will mean that resale prices for #7965 will start to tail off? 
    I don't like the prospects for #7965 much at all.  People will just buy the new set.  It's close enough to the same, comes with a much much better Chewie and bowcaster, and young Hans are easy and cheap to acquire
  • sir_Bricksalotsir_Bricksalot Member Posts: 110
    I'd tend to agree. Gutted I missed on getting an MF but now with the new one coming out just holding off to get one at retail. Assume they'll be a lot more like me. I'm a massive OT fan but still not going hell for leather on an old one.

    Obviously keen to see the reviews & comps first before actually making the purchase. There might be something about 7965 that makes it unique enough to grab my attention.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    Leia in the white robe and Luke with visor are exclusive to that set. And that version of the Falcon is the best one, because the new one is sporting the weathered look with alternating gray plates. Which to me is not how I envision the Falcon. So if I had to choose one without difference in cost, I would prefer the original #7965.
    Pitfall69KazJY
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    ^ all things being equal, I agree with you.  And all those points are valid.  But we are talking about resale here, and the question is do those points matter enough to enough people to warrant paying double or triple compared to just buying the current version?  My guess is not for the vast majority. And if I'm holding for resale, I want the largest possible potential buyer pool.  Sure, some niche hardcore collectors with money to burn might shell out for the 7965, but that's going to be a significantly smaller potential buyer base
    VorpalRyuPitfall69
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    But this is only true while the new Falcon is available. Once it goes out too, then it's a different game. However, that's a couple years at the very least. So in the moment, funds are better invested elsewhere than #7965.
    Pitfall69
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Member Posts: 7,730
    The other question is how many more times will the Falcon appear in subsequent films and get re-hashed for those?
    Pitfall69dougts
  • sir_Bricksalotsir_Bricksalot Member Posts: 110
    Bumblepants said:
    The other question is how many more times will the Falcon appear in subsequent films and get re-hashed for those?
    Good point.  Such an iconic vehicles and Lego knows its going to sell so i cant see any prolonged period over the next 6 years of films where the ship isn't heavily featured in their production line - although that's probably going to involve a few intervals of them not being available.  
    However if it gets destroyed at any point then all bets are off.

    1) I think there'd be a massive out cry in the SW community
    2)"releases" Lego to focus on other prominent vehicles.

    Although I've said, with the option of having the new one for MRSP or the old one for 2x MRSP then im going the new one for sure.  However if the #7965 drops to within 1.5x MRSP (or even approaches the price of the new one) then for the "nostalgic" effect I'm getting one for sure.

    Wishful thinking though.  I think the release of the new MF just puts a ceiling on #7965 in the short term.  IMO better investments to be made now but I think you'll be able to sell out of #7965 get some other items, sell those before buying back into #7965 down the road at pretty much the current going rate.

    Complete speculation of course :)  If i were stocked say 10 deep on these I'd probably sell 4 now, a couple more nearer x-mas time but keep at least 2 or 3 for the long term.  Not having any of these I wont be buying any for investment purposes though.

    (getting off my soap box now :smiley: )

  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Member Posts: 3,639
    ^Knowing JJ, the Falcon will meet its glorious demise at the end of Ep. VII. In which case, this has a chance to be the last version. But I doubt that in all likelihood.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited August 2015
    What's the market value for the Falcon now? $250-260 USD? If you got these on sale, then that is not a shabby return if you ask me.

    I got all of mine around $90 USD.
  • sir_Bricksalotsir_Bricksalot Member Posts: 110
    I'm pretty sure if George Lucas had any veto power written into the sale of the SW franchise then this would be what he'd use it for...... I'm actually getting worried for the MF now!  

    All previous comments about #7965 taken back :smile:  Definitely hold on to those!
  • YodaliciousYodalicious Member Posts: 1,366
    BrickDancer said:
    ^Knowing JJ, the Falcon will meet its glorious demise at the end of Ep. VII. In which case, this has a chance to be the last version. But I doubt that in all likelihood.
    Even if that does happen, it won't mean the last version because they'll still be able to put out a new OT one everyone four years or so. And they will, because gone from the SW universe or not, it'll remain an iconic vehicle. 

    Heck, they basically have two versions to rehash now. The OT one and the Ep. VII one. 
    ReesesPieces
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 1,131
    If I can find a buyer, I'll gladly sell it at the going rate and buy the new one for the new figures.  I think there will be plenty more MFs in the future.  Let's face it the falcon and x wing will always be around in one form or another if you give it a little time.
  • YodaliciousYodalicious Member Posts: 1,366
    ^ And where there's an X-Wing, there's always a TIE Fighter. 
    ReesesPieces
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,241
    How many Hogwarts Castles were released for the Harry Potter films?

    There will be continuous re-releases of Falcons well into the future.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    BrickDancer said:
    ^Knowing JJ, the Falcon will meet its glorious demise at the end of Ep. VII. In which case, this has a chance to be the last version. But I doubt that in all likelihood.
    Considering JJ's take on Trek made a lot of Trekkies walk away from ST, I'm kind of curious to how the Warsie fanboys react to VII & yeah, I'd say the Falcon could be the Vulcan of SW.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    BrickDancer said:
    ^Knowing JJ, the Falcon will meet its glorious demise at the end of Ep. VII. In which case, this has a chance to be the last version. But I doubt that in all likelihood.
    That just means they'll release a battle damaged version in a couple of years.
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Pmh said:

    Now that the winter toy store got a remake the big question on every resellers mind is off course:what set will be next.

    To me the earlier modular buildings seem to be the most likely to get a remake though I do not realy expect it. A remake of cafee corner would be nice though.


    Too is awesome,its my only lotr set and its one of the favorit sets I own.

    Only other set I would want to have from that series is the pirate ambush ship. it is absolutely beautifull and highly underrated. People say its not a real ship and that It is to low but its meant to be like that,its more like a barge then a ship and I think its one of the best lego ships out there. Will definitely buy this when I see it for sale and would not mind overpaying slightly.

    IMHO, I wouldn't expect another nearly or honest re-release anytime soon. Isolated case I think. City Corner was another one. It's quite rare to see.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    We are essentially in uncharted waters with LEGO. No one has any idea what to expect right now.
    VorpalRyu
  • MojoestMojoest Member Posts: 477
    Thanks for the help everyone. Sounds like its a case of either sell the MF now, or be prepared to hold on to it for a good while. Hmmm I think I might go with seeing if it sells at a price I'm happy with now, and if not it can just stay in the cupboard long term.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    This WV re-release now makes me wonder about the rumours that were doing the rounds about a rehash of the UCS Falcon & some of the earlier Modulars...
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    At this point, even as a "reseller", I would welcome straight 're-releases of the more popular sets gone by. I would love nothing more than all the fly by night sellers to bail on the venture. I still primarily do it for fun and to pay for the stuff I keep. It has gotten less fun with so many speculators out there. 
    Bumblepantsjuggles7FollowsCloselyMrJ_NY
  • LeonCLeonC Member Posts: 364
    edited August 2015
    This isn't the first re-release this year - don't forget #42041 which was a straight re-release of #8041 (I don't think they changed anything in that case). I do wonder if it's just a case of filling gaps in their release schedule due to 'last minute problems' with planned sets.
    Ronyar
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    VorpalRyu said:
    BrickDancer said:
    ^Knowing JJ, the Falcon will meet its glorious demise at the end of Ep. VII. In which case, this has a chance to be the last version. But I doubt that in all likelihood.
    Considering JJ's take on Trek made a lot of Trekkies walk away from ST, I'm kind of curious to how the Warsie fanboys react to VII & yeah, I'd say the Falcon could be the Vulcan of SW.
    I think Episode VII can still be good. When I watched Abrams Trek movies, they felt more like Star Wars with Trek characters anyway, which is why I hate them so much.

    Also, regarding re-releases, as much as I want a re-release of the UCS Millennium Falcon exactly as the original, I know it won't happen. Any new UCS set will be of the new one. Any modulars they might re-release would also come updated, not original. Maybe I'm just a slightly different person than most, but they actually make me want the original versions more, not less (not that I'll ever be able to afford them).
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    ^ Hmmm, curious now to see if the Ghost in the Microfighters series 3 will be a new build or a rehash of the SDCC/FanExpo one, but with flick missiles.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    I have absolutely no doubt that the new films will be very good, mostly because Disney is investing a staggering amount of money, time, staff, etc. into the whole property.  Take the two new park areas recently announced as prime (but certainly not the only) examples.  They wouldn't be moving forward with those kinds of things without doing everything they can to make sure these new movies will not be a repeat of the "Episode I" situation.

    Writing as a fan boy regarding The Force Awakens, it will be good, because it has to be good, it just has to be.
    pharmjodRonyarwagnerml2Rainstorm26SumoLegobrickupdateLegoFanTexas
  • Sethro3Sethro3 Member Posts: 1,016
    They have a lot invested in this. Multiple movies planned. Theme park. We will be sick of sw soon enough.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    Disney has a lot on their plate.  SW is so big solely because of how good the first three movies were.  They are very kid friendly and open up a universe of imagination.  However, the prequels have tarnished that image so much that I don't know if SW can be resurrected to where it once was.

    Now Disney is going to have to produce films that match the quality of the first three which is nearly impossible.  I will say from what I have seen so far that the sets, costumes and CG looks a ton better than what was in the prequels.  Here's hoping the writing and production are good enough to produce a real gem.
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    TheLoneTensor said:
    Writing as a fan boy regarding The Force Awakens, it will be good, because it has to be good, it just has to be.
    This times a million. I am trying not to have unreasonable expectations but I am truly excited. I am a Star Trek "fan" in that I like the shows and all the old movies. I loved what Abrams did to reinvigorate the franchise. That is part of the reason why I'm so stoked for the force awakens.

    Disney knows what they are doing. 
    TheLoneTensorRonyarSumoLegoLegoFanTexas
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    Agree on a lot of what you are saying. The one thing this generation has that we didn't though are parents and even grandparents that love the movies. This will go a long way to making it a cross generational phenomenon. Who knows what might happen there. Gonna be fun for sure :)
    wagnerml2FollowsCloselyVortex
  • danstraindepotdanstraindepot Member Posts: 172
    I agree with @wagnerml2, of course when I was a kid I had to wait even longer and get them used at garage sales, or trade with kids at school since we could not afford too much new.   So I spent a lot of time dreaming about this stuff.  Of course now I way overcompensate by purchasing WAY too much. 

    So Disney has that going for them!
    FollowsClosely
  • binaryeyebinaryeye Member Posts: 1,831
    wagnerml2 said:
    I wonder if this generation has the attention span long enough to fall in love with the franchise like we did.  They will be inundated with marketing and merchandise.  There will never be that anticipation like we had.
    Beyond this, there's a lot more competition now. Perhaps I was just blinded by my love for Star Wars as a kid, but I don't remember anything else at the time being nearly so prevalent across multiple media. It was everywhere, unlike most other things.

    Now, everything is everywhere.
    dougtsmonkeyhanger
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,241
    Harry Potter has some legs, and I would argue it's more formulaic and a much narrower universe.

    Disney will make it a substantial commercial success no matter how panned the movies may be.  Rebels is already a good example of machine that will be the SW franchise.

    (And there are also the obvious Marvel parallels, but I'm more interested in what they do once the Infinity Wars films are done.)
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    pharmjod said:
    At this point, even as a "reseller", I would welcome straight 're-releases of the more popular sets gone by. I would love nothing more than all the fly by night sellers to bail on the venture. I still primarily do it for fun and to pay for the stuff I keep. It has gotten less fun with so many speculators out there. 
    Totally agree with that statement. LEGO has to weigh the value of making additional money on a re-release with potentially weakening their value in the aftermarket. Frankly, a little weakening right now would be a healthy thing for them to do. Kind of like setting a far foward fires ahead of a fast-moving wildfire.
    pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited August 2015
    prevere said:
    pharmjod said:
    At this point, even as a "reseller", I would welcome straight 're-releases of the more popular sets gone by. I would love nothing more than all the fly by night sellers to bail on the venture. I still primarily do it for fun and to pay for the stuff I keep. It has gotten less fun with so many speculators out there. 
    Totally agree with that statement. LEGO has to weigh the value of making additional money on a re-release with potentially weakening their value in the aftermarket. Frankly, a little weakening right now would be a healthy thing for them to do. Kind of like setting a far foward fires ahead of a fast-moving wildfire.
    It may not be as simple as eliminating the "fly by night" resellers. Prices for retired sets are still high despite having many more "resellers" than there was 5-6 years ago. The more resellers with their feet in the pool, the more competition; and competition usually keeps prices lower. Take away all those extra inexperienced resellers and you might see prices rise, not go down because there will be less inventory to choose from. 

    I have always wondered if the large resellers get together and create market values for retired sets? Much like the Bilderberg Group meetings. It wouldn't surprise me in the least if they did.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor Member Posts: 1,258
    ^Like, the Illegonati?
    Pitfall69kiki180703ricecakeGoldchainskhmellymel
  • dragonhawkdragonhawk Member Posts: 633
    ^ Re-sellers Illuminati.. interesting idea :D
    Pitfall69kiki180703Goldchains
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited August 2015
    dragonhawk said:
    ^ Re-sellers Illuminati.. interesting idea :D
    I have a group of friends that I discuss Lego with. There are plenty of times where I have been asked or I will ask when to sell a certain retired set and for how much. I have also discussed if certain trades are a fair deal and what not. I am sure there are many people that have their inner circles. It has also been mentioned in the forum before that larger resellers/horde over at Brickpicker may be in cahoots with each other. So, it wouldn't surprise me with a group of the largest resellers exchange ideas on how to corner the market. I am sure that is what all the 27% off Exclusives hubbub is/was all about ;)

    Can you hear the "Black Helicopters"?

    A month ago one of our competitors sent us a letter wanting to join forces and help each other out by pooling our resources to grab a larger share of the local market. It was an interesting idea, but we already have a large local market share and our goal is to not compete with anyone, so we didn't respond. 
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