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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    @Bosstone100 - That would be great! If you manage to grab one, PM me and we can schedule a time to meet. Additionally, if you ask them about the PQ stuff, let me know, as there are a couple of PQ sets I'd like to have.
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,421
    @coolpix - you got it. If all goes well, I'll get there some time in the late afternoon.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    I agree with @coolpix's post...get the MMV while you can. I'm not so sure about the FB set though...at least for a couple months. It is prominently displayed on page 28 of the new Lego magazine. That said, I've seen sets sell out while the magazine is still relatively fresh, and the FB could be one of those.

    On the topic of the magazine, I am disappointed that there were page after page of Ninjago. I realize it's mostly new stuff they are trying to introduce, but good grief! That series does not float my boat as they say.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    Neither do I. Ninjago is waaay overrated. Out of my 3 kids, 1 likes Ninjago, the other two don't care about it. I've got 2 or 3 polys with ninjas, so I could get one of each color, and that's it. I even find Atlantis way more interesting. Still waiting on that Catalog from LEGO to come here...
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    MMV is now $137 on amazon. But they are still available on Lego.com and everywhere else. Also toy story is really getting EOL'd. I think it will be huge next year, considering the success of its movies. It is what made Pixar huge, after all....
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    edited December 2011
    MMV is now $137 on amazon. But they are still available on Lego.com and everywhere else. Also toy story is really getting EOL'd. I think it will be huge next year, considering the success of its movies. It is what made Pixar huge, after all....
    Amazon price doesn't mean much. It's still stocked most everywhere. Don't see it with Toy Story as you do not have adult interest.
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    Yea amazon price doesn't really make sense at all. I think toy story could be like batman or spiderman series, I hope anyway since I like it a lot. Lol.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    I don't see Toy Story being that big. Usually themes that appeal to adults tend to go better after retirement. I even see Harry Potter gaining better value over the years than Toy Story, even though I must agree that the Toy Story sets and minifigures were fantastic in my opinion. I wish I had bought a "Woody's Roundup" and the Train set when they were easy to find.
  • intromissionintromission Member Posts: 197
    Looks like my last chance to get an Imperial Flagship vanished. The last 42 at Target are gone. Bummer.
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    What do you guys think drive the market value of retired Lego sets? Do you think what we are discussing here somehow determines that? I kinda think so in a way. :). I just wish more people would actually join our conversation rather than just reading them.
  • BTHodgemanBTHodgeman Member Posts: 622
    I found an opened IF for $259.97 at Walmart tonight. *chuckles*

    Brent
  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    @coolpix, the train set is indeed very nice. I built it about 1 month ago and it's pretty awesome. The characters minifigures were also fantastic. Rex is especially cool.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    Got my Jan 2012 Catalog today as well. @Farmer_John is right... too much Ninjago, and I don't even think these sets are better than 2011's. To compensate, Joust is nicely featured and also Super Heroes and all the new City sets. Friends line is pretty cool, but with those figures, it looks like "Polly Pocket met LEGO". I think I'll take sometime to adjust my self to that line.

    I've seen too much evidence that LEGO pays attention to what the community is saying. On page 23 they say "Collect all of the minifigures", showing that they know collectors will go for all the Super Heroes minifigures. On page 36 they remind us that there are "6 New Brick Colors", probably reminding all the "MOCers" out there that they should buy boatloads of these sets to use the special colors... maybe it's just me.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited December 2011
    What do you guys think drive the market value of retired Lego sets? Do you think what we are discussing here somehow determines that? I kinda think so in a way. :). I just wish more people would actually join our conversation rather than just reading them.
    It would be fascinating to take all the EOL'd sets over the past 5-10 years and plot (selling eBay prices/Original Retail Price) vs. Time. Then compare the plot of this information for each series vs. all other overall series to see which sets performed the best. That would give you a really good idea where to "risk" your investments for future appreciation. If I had the data available, there is so much I would like to do... ;-)

    I've been an AFOL for roughly 4-5 years now and I was originally purchasing smaller sets (<$30) to pass off as gifts. What I began to realize was that EOL'd sets appreciate over time. Upon closer analysis, I noticed that the larger sets seemed to get more "bang for the buck" as they say, so I started purchasing more expensive sets. While many (if not all) have appreciated in the after-market over time, certain sets have performed better. SW sets do well, and classic sets do very well (sets like Taj Mahal, TLG's 50th Town Plan, Eiffel Tower, etc.). Sets that are unexpectedly EOL'd perform well too. Ironically, sets that are EOL'd during year-end or BF sales are hoarded and it does take them longer to appreciate with AFOLs. I really think the Emerald Night and Imperial Flagship will be this year's winners, and will increase very well over the next few years. I also think that so many SW sets are now being sold that they will not perform as well as they used to in the after-market.

    As a side note, I do not think that TLG worries a lot about after-market performance of sets unless it is to resurrect a set that was EOL'd and could have pent-up demand. Case in point is the Superhero sets. Batman sets were outrageously expensive in the after-market, and now they are making a comeback. It's nice for those of us looking for a more affordable option, but probably not too good for those hoarding older Batman sets.

    JMO...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Well I think the only reason they brought back the Super Hero sets was to tie in with the new movies for 2012 and of course spin off the new video games, not to satisfy demand for the older sets. Same will happen with Indiana Jones when the next movie comes out.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    What do you guys think drive the market value of retired Lego sets? Do you think what we are discussing here somehow determines that? I kinda think so in a way. :). I just wish more people would actually join our conversation rather than just reading them.
    To give a somewhat flip answer, demand of a set that is in short supply drives the market value upward. To get price appreciation, you have to identify a set that is (a) popular enough to have significant EOL demand and (b) unlikely to have a large number of sets floating around on the secondary market after EOL. It's pretty easy to ***think*** you can figure this out, but it's much riskier and more difficult to time than it might appear. For example, all of the EOL sets that Walmart has had on 50% clearance this week will be very slow to appreciate because there are going to be a TON of them on the secondary market. Prices may appreciate over time, but I wouldn't count on them rising significantly beyond MSRP for some time. Anyone who bought those sets at MSRP with the hope of reselling is now competing with people all over the country who just bought them at 1/2 MSRP and can make a profit selling them for less than MSRP.

    The sets that appreciate the fastest are the ones that become unexpectedly popular after EOL (think Cafe Corner), are retired unexpectedly (think 1st gen Batman), or have a sufficiently high MSRP to limit the secondary market inventory available (think UCS Millenium Falcon). That being said, a lot of the traffic on this forum is a testament to the fact that people have gotten wise to the profit-making potential of EOL Lego sets, which will inevitably make it (and I would wager has already made it) more likely that there will be a plentiful supply of "can't miss investment" sets on the secondary market after EOL. For example, I wouldn't expect to see the same type of price appreciation for the UCS Death Star as the Millenium Falcon or Fire Brigade as Green Grocer or Cafe Corner...too many people are wise to this now for prices to rise as quickly as they have in the past.

  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    Lego definitely pays a lot of attention on what's going on in the world. They brought back the shuttle adventure (10213) as shuttle expedition (10231) at the same time NASA suspended its shuttle program. Superheroes is coming out because of the new batman movie, the avengers, etc. and also probably because Mega Bloks have been doing Marvel sets for a while (their minifigures collection surprisingly are good. More joints and better head and body size proportion).
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    Lego definitely pays a lot of attention on what's going on in the world. They brought back the shuttle adventure (10213) as shuttle expedition (10231) at the same time NASA suspended its shuttle program. Superheroes is coming out because of the new batman movie, the avengers, etc. and also probably because Mega Bloks have been doing Marvel sets for a while (their minifigures collection surprisingly are good. More joints and better head and body size proportion).
    That set wasn't really "brought back." There was a pretty significant design issue with 10213, so LEGO redesigned part of that set's build structure and it was significant enough a change to warrant a new set number.
  • sidersddsidersdd USAMember Posts: 2,432
    ^ right, I think the point is though that 10213 was created to time with NASAs shuttle retirement.
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    one question? do you think those sets are retired for good?

    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?set=7868-1
    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?set=8091-1
    http://www.brickset.com/detail/?set=8128-1

    I would understand for the last two, because released in 2010....but the mace windu's starfighter?
    they are all sold out at [email protected]

    they were all limited edition, right?
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    edited December 2011
    @Supersympa I do believe these are retired. If you don't have them, grab them now, LEGO stores will probably still have them. The Mace Windu Starfighter was pretty much the only Star Wars set at 50% at Wal-Mart this week, and that's a good indication that it may be on it's way out.
  • Pacific493Pacific493 Member Posts: 379
    IMHO, Swamp Speeder is almost certainly EOL. IIRC, it was in the January 2010 wave of new SW sets.

    Cad Bane's Speeder would be more of a surprise since it was released later in 2010 and has not yet run a full two years, but the pattern of discounts offered on the set over the past few weeks would seem to suggest that it is EOL.

    Mace Windu's Starfighter is a bit of a wild card. It had an odd release schedule, being available in Europe starting in 1/11, but not available in the U.S. until summer 2011. I'm not quite sure what the story is with this set, but I would not be surprised if it were one of those odd Lego sets that is only available for a few months.
  • SupersympaSupersympa SwedenMember Posts: 534
    ok, thanks, I also noticed those 3 sets are some sort of limited edition...
    well, on my way to local toy store to grab the mace windu fighter.
    in France for example the mace windu is nowhere to be seen.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,706
    What do you guys think drive the market value of retired Lego sets? Do you think what we are discussing here somehow determines that? I kinda think so in a way. :). I just wish more people would actually join our conversation rather than just reading them.
    The market value is Supply and demand, like it has been since the dawn of time...
    As to whether or not these discussions cause changes to that? I used to think no.. but I see far to many hoarders on here buying 20-30 of the sets going to be EOL, and that is just those that get on these boards to 'boast' what they have.

    I imagine there are many resellers that are not on message boards doing the exact same thing because they saw infomercials on TV or books talking about how easy it is to make money on eBay...
    Now, unless LEGO does something silly like re-do sets that are EOL (like exact copies released again) then the supply will eventually dwindle and prices will go up, but it will take longer and longer and perhaps with a shorter 'ceiling' on prices as part of the reason sets go up is because of demand, either because of nostalgia or price speculators.
    For instance I believe when a LEGO MISB hits about 700+ dollars I do not think you are seeing people buying that set to open it, I see more people buying that set to hold for a higher price, once the speculation market is saturated then I think the ceiling has been hit, and make go up still, but at a trickle (700 is not a set number, but the number I believe people would pay for a set to open it... I doubt many people paying 900 dollars for a MISB Cafe Corner are going to open it)

    But with more and more people getting this 'idea' to make money off of LEGO the more and more this will turn into the baseball card industry IMO.

  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    madforlegos-I agree with your post. When I started selling years ago, it was a whole different ball game. I would hit the store sales and pick up a few things that I thought might be good sellers and my kids would like. Well, I didn't go out this year. We hosted Christmas for both sides of the family and I am tired. Also, things have changed. People wipe out stores now. It also happened with garage sales and thrift stores. I would read an advertised ad that had "Lego" in it and go to the sale. Well, someone came 3 days earlier before the sale started with some sob story and wiped the people out. It sorta takes the fun out of the hunt.
    We are all about Lego and will continue to purchase it. I just purchase it slowly throughout the year. I do agree that some things are going to have a harder time making money. I am a small seller, but I do have a room full of Lego to sell. I purchase everything on sale, but I am now seeing that everyone purchases alot on sale. Who knows what is going to happen, but I do find the whole topic interesting.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    Some of the newer resellers may find it more difficult as madforlegos leads onto. I can definitely see a scenario where we find lower profitable ceilings on recent sets retired, making it tough for some to sustain cashflow to buy more sets. And the idea of opening a set and parting it out is too much work for little revenue.

    I think a lot of resellers will be dabbling in Lego the next 10 years, in and out, but this won't significantly impact those of us who just love the pureness of the brick.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    prevere.....my boys would love it if I decided today to stop selling Lego. They would have no problem overtaking all of my inventory. I think you have to always love what you are selling and have the money to spare. Otherwise...it is just too risky.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    We build stuff together as a family almost every day and it's so much fun - so you know. But I have a feeling there are considerable amounts of newbies who are just looking at $ signs with no real interest in the product. They'll either convert to Lego addicts like us, or dump their stuff on eBay.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    ^ I agree with madforlegos too. I do think people will pay more than $700 for some sets though, maybe not cafe corner. $700 is about 5 times its initial MSRP, which is the max I see a lot of sets topping out at as a multiplier. Most people thought the UCS Falcon would not go up much considering how much it was, but now it is worth at least triple MSIB and not much less used. I think most items that are EOL will continue to go up in an oscillating manner till they reach a cap in which even collectors wont pay past. After that, the price I think will stay the same for a great while and then lower some, maybe a lot considering some past sets. In great great lengths of time I could see it going either way. Some sets may become totally worthless as the demand may become non-existent and others may stay around it's very high after market value. I hope this doesn't turn into the baseball card industry, but I don't see it having that route just yet as I believe people have been hoarding for a while and considering how different baseball cards are from legos.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited December 2011
    I think this all comes down to value. A key to the balance of the Lego Force is supply and demand - as we all know.

    Value is what keeps collectors purchasing expensive sets (or at least at 100-200% past MSRP).
    Value is what keeps collectors from selling their collections. And even still you have a lot of moms and 15-year-olds dumping Lego, but they buy them back in their 20s or as parents, or yet again as grandparents.

    Lego has a habit of becoming a lifetime hobby. Sportscards and other toys/collectibles fail miserably at this. Even with the increased speculation, Lego will never become like Upper Deck.





  • WindfieldWindfield USAMember Posts: 33
    Agreed! I purchased a brand new Lego 6981 from ebay for quite a bit of money, just because it is nostalgic for me. My dad bought me that set when I was 10 years old. That's really the only reason I bought it. And just like that I just gave out my age... Lol.
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    I do think Lego will always be popular. We have been collecting since 1998. Well, I know a few of my friend started Ebaying because they saw that it could support my kids hobby. They wanted to do it also. I showed them how and now they Ebay. So, I think the amount of people selling Lego just keeps growing. I also think I do sell to a lot of resellers, which is fine. It just makes me wonder how many people are stocking up on the same group of sets that are just going round and round between sellers. It is very interesting for me to watch. I think that there always has to be a balance. It happens with more than with just baseball cards. As a kid, my grandmother brought us Madame Alexander Dolls. They were only sold at only a few high end places in the 70's. In the early 90's if you wanted to sell them you could make quite a bit. However, the dolls started to be sold everywhere....TJ MAXX, Walmart online, ect. What once was a high end doll, became not so valuable monetary wise.(but still very valuable sentimental wise) The supply was not so small anymore.....and it exceeded the demand. I also saw it happen with Krispy Kreme and Cold Stone Cremery up here. They were both popular, but opened too many stores too soon. They ended up closing alot of them. I know I am rambling, but I guess my point is that people should only be willing to put into Lego what they would not mind losing if it should not hold value. On a side not.....I do hope everyone finds good deals and makes millions. :O)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    For instance I believe when a LEGO MISB hits about 700+ dollars I do not think you are seeing people buying that set to open it, I see more people buying that set to hold for a higher price, once the speculation market is saturated then I think the ceiling has been hit, and make go up still, but at a trickle (700 is not a set number, but the number I believe people would pay for a set to open it... I doubt many people paying 900 dollars for a MISB Cafe Corner are going to open it)
    *raises hand*

    I bought a sealed box Cafe Corner to open and build, paid $850 delivered for it.

    So it DOES happen...

    I sold a 10030 sealed to a dentist for $1,300, she gave it to her 12 year old son to open and build.

    So the supply does shrink, but slowly... Yes, many of these get traded back and forth, but they also get opened too, so the supply drops over time.
  • kkskks Member Posts: 60
    ^ at some point in the near future I plan on buying and building Green Grocer, Cafe Corner and Eiffel Tower. I do have my price limit for each, but it is well, well above original prices. So yes the supply will continue to shrink.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    I am about to buy a Green Grocer from a fellow collector here on Brickset, and I intend to build it the minute it comes into the door! :-)
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    I do believe the older sets do have people buying them and opening them. I just am thinking as time goes on with so many of us...will the supply exceed the demand? I hope not.
  • HuskerDontHuskerDont Member Posts: 32
    I am about to buy a Green Grocer from a fellow collector here on Brickset, and I intend to build it the minute it comes into the door! :-)
    I also plan on buying a Green Grocer in the next few months and as soon as it arrives, I'm opening it up and building it right away.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,706
    Point taken..
    Although I am amazed that people are buying these to open to be honest (I mean it makes sense, it is a building toy) but still, to pay 850 dollars to open a Cafe Corner? More power to you :-)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,706
    I do believe the older sets do have people buying them and opening them. I just am thinking as time goes on with so many of us...will the supply exceed the demand? I hope not.
    Well that will depend on if LEGO mysteriously finds a warehouse filled with Cafe Corners...
    I used to really collect Slot cars, and for a while most were going for decent money..
    Then a bunch of warehouses in Asia mysteriously popped up with tons of old cars and that flooded the market, that combined with a dwindling market (most guys collecting slot cars either got their collections, or are getting old with no fresh collectors buying) really crushed the Slot car market IMO..

    My point is it is also demand for that particular set or years of that set.
    I have noticed that 80's sets (which I sell out in) are going for less and less.
    I think it is because the people that grew up wioth those sets are already collecting and have those sets... but I question if there are enough younger people that are saying ' hey I want those LEGOs from the 80's' (although due to the cruddy late 90's LEGOs there are probably more than I think)
    Now I think the Mods should have no issues, but I also notice many people just give up on trying to get the old mods due to money, and it appears to turn off some people from getting into the mods altogether (why, Im not sure as the Mods are pretty sweet).
    So it also depends on the attitude for those sets as well, or if another set comes along that pretty much 'replaces' the old (See Maersk Sealand Freight ships for issues with price increases in the past or the Legends sets that came out)
  • momof2boys99momof2boys99 Member Posts: 322
    edited December 2011
    I do believe the older sets do have people buying them and opening them. I just am thinking as time goes on with so many of us...will the supply exceed the demand? I hope not.
    Well that will depend on if LEGO mysteriously finds a warehouse filled with Cafe Corners...
    I used to really collect Slot cars, and for a while most were going for decent money..
    Then a bunch of warehouses in Asia mysteriously popped up with tons of old cars and that flooded the market, that combined with a dwindling market (most guys collecting slot cars either got their collections, or are getting old with no fresh collectors buying) really crushed the Slot car market IMO..

    My point is it is also demand for that particular set or years of that set.
    I have noticed that 80's sets (which I sell out in) are going for less and less.
    I think it is because the people that grew up wioth those sets are already collecting and have those sets... but I question if there are enough younger people that are saying ' hey I want those LEGOs from the 80's' (although due to the cruddy late 90's LEGOs there are probably more than I think)
    Now I think the Mods should have no issues, but I also notice many people just give up on trying to get the old mods due to money, and it appears to turn off some people from getting into the mods altogether (why, Im not sure as the Mods are pretty sweet).
    So it also depends on the attitude for those sets as well, or if another set comes along that pretty much 'replaces' the old (See Maersk Sealand Freight ships for issues with price increases in the past or the Legends sets that came out)
    Another thing that happened was with American Girl clothes and Disney Pins. The factories had extras that the workers were selling on Ebay. It hurt the market. As I stated it is so interesting to watch. I do think this generation of kids have alot more than when I was a kid. So, I don't know how many people are missing out on sets. It is fun to speculate with everyone else. I am happy I found you guys.
  • gmpirategmpirate Member Posts: 1,654
    Wow, why buy a "sealed" set if one's plan is to open and build? Why not just buy a set "complete" from a reputable seller? I mean, even if a few pieces were missing, one could always get the parts from Lego or Bricklink.

    I have some sealed falcons but when it comes time to build one I will just find a used one.

    We all have things we splurge on (myself included) but the practical side of me just can't fathom it :P
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,706
    edited December 2011
    ^--- valid point, but with a sealed set you know that the parts are there (with the exception of 39R1 for the FB) and new (Yes I know 'new' is relative because bricks may be lightly scratched from rumbling around in the box)
    But when a set is listed as 'complete' a lot of questions come up:
    Is 'Complete' meaning that all the parts are there and proper 'type' and color? In other words a Market street with black railings instead of white is not a complete set (IMO, and the opinions of many buyers)
    Are the parts lightly scratched? Or did the previous owner take em outside and scrape them against the pavement?
    For all you know a kid with the measles was playing with it last, or lived in the house of a smoker, or had pets, etc...
    Also not many people know about BL.. so if a set is missing parts, then a set is missing parts.. and I think another thread about the disgust of 39R1 Fb being opened for Christmas missing parts is a great show of this...

    Also some people give them for gifts and many people would be thinking a gift is nicer if new sealed box and not used....

    Now I do agree with you.. For me it was more sensible to buy a used 10022 car than open one of mine when building one, but again many people like to give a 'new sealed' box as gift especially...
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    Wow, why buy a "sealed" set if one's plan is to open and build? Why not just buy a set "complete" from a reputable seller? I mean, even if a few pieces were missing, one could always get the parts from Lego or Bricklink.

    I have some sealed falcons but when it comes time to build one I will just find a used one.

    We all have things we splurge on (myself included) but the practical side of me just can't fathom it :P
    To me, nothing beats the feeling of opening brand new boxes and brand new poly bags with parts. You know the set is complete (or at least supposed to), and the shininess and smell of "new" abs plastic cannot be described! Like @madforlegos said, you don't really know who handle the used pieces before, if kids put it in the month and so on... I don't see myself buying pre-owned LEGO that's not on a factory sealed box/polybag. I also don't see new LEGO being that much scratched in the polys than it would be on a store shelf, where people handle the box almost every day. Some re-sellers will buy sets from a retailer and store them until someone buys, so the scratching of new parts in a polybag doesn't look like a problem to me.

    Just my opinion... I'd rather pay a bit more for something "brand new" that I'd enjoy to build.

    However, I see your point, because this hobby is like a weird mental disease, and I am already feeling like NOT opening my recent purchases of FB, IF, MMV, but since I do not intend to make this a business and re-sell them in the future, I also feel that it completely defeats the purpose of loving to build LEGO, when you get a brand new $150 set from a LEGO store and do not play with it.

    Decisions... decisions...



  • DaddyWhaleDaddyWhale Member Posts: 130
    If the price differential between a new and used set is large enough, I usually opt for the used set. For example I got a used Castle Giant Chess set (852293) recently for about $220. New ones seem to go for $600+.

    But I've often found that the price differential is not so great that it's worth the bother of getting used rather than new. I bought Green Grocer last week new for about $370. Good used sets seem to go for about $300. The $70 difference is just not enough to justify the potential downside hassle of buying a used set.

    Regarding the feeling of opening a brand new set... I get more of a kick from finding a used bargain and then lovingly restoring it. For example, it turned out that I had to put in another $100 or so on the Castle Giant Chess set as the previous owner had cannibalized it for some of the premium parts. I value it all the more for the work (which is actually play) I put into it.

    Not saying that I prefer incomplete used sets. But the process of finding, assessing, acquiring, building and restoring is part of what collecting is all about.
  • y2joshy2josh Member Posts: 2,002
    Personally, I always buy retired sets used. Although, as a first rule, I try not to miss out on a set I really want in the first place, because all the ones I've ever missed seemed to also be the ones that double in price instantly.

    And I do buy sets here and there to resell, but I've never even considered buying a set that's already retired in the hopes that it will appreciate further. I know some people have had success with this, but I'm not that invested in reselling to mess around with it.

    Just my two cents.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas TexasMember Posts: 8,409
    Point taken..
    Although I am amazed that people are buying these to open to be honest (I mean it makes sense, it is a building toy) but still, to pay 850 dollars to open a Cafe Corner? More power to you :-)
    Why not? It is only money, you can't take it with you, but you can enjoy the experience of building it and displaying it for years with pride and joy.

    I am very much a "deal" person, I love saving money and getting a "bargain". I will agree, there is nothing "dealish" about spending $850 for a Lego set with 2,000 parts to build, I could probably get the parts for half the price by Bricklinking them. But my time has value, and there is something about just opening the set, opening the bags, reading the real instruction manual, and making it part of the modular street.

    Now I'll grant you, the average person would probably not do this, with limited funds, you could buy a lot of other Lego for $850... For those of us with the means however, why the heck not, you only live once.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I stick with a simple philosophy to avoid the stress of trying to over analyze the market: Buy sets I like or think will be popular at or below MSRP if I plan to resell them. That's it...

    I figure very few sets go below MSRP and most go up once they're EOL'd. Even the sets that are sold at 50% off through Wal-Mart sales well increase to MSRP in a short while. (One of the few exceptions to that rule that I have found is the Mid-scale Imperial Star Destroyer (8099), which retailed for $39.99 and is still selling for about $30 in the aftermarket. I purchased one of these for my daughter and she hated it because she said it does not hold together. That may be the reason why it still doesn't sell.)

    The alternative is that I put my money in the bank for a whopping 0.2% annual return or in the stock market that may go bust at any moment. In short, what do I have to lose by trying to make money on a hobby I love?
  • pcironepcirone Long Island, NYMember Posts: 346
    edited December 2011
    ^ Only the respect of people who want to live in a fascist state and impose their will on everyone else.
  • loporjai2003loporjai2003 Member Posts: 4
    edited December 2011
    Hi,

    Are all 3 Winter sets retiring ? I can still see the Bakery and Post office on the LEGO site but not the Toy Shop.

    I saw some Winter Toy Shops 10199 here in Canada at retail (80+tax CAN), and yes we get gouged and wonder if I should pick them up ?

  • JenniJenni JapanMember Posts: 1,390
    Apparently toy shop is retiring and the others will just be put away until next year.
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