Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

Ronyar · July 2015

Duplo - Some Thomas, some construction sets do well. Haven't really noticed what else.

madforLEGO · July 2015

prevere said:

FollowsClosely said:

January? Really?

Does Lego know Xmas is in Dec?

Im guessing the resellers do and will be cleaning up if these are all missing from stores by November.

SumoLego · July 2015

The Duplo 'Harold the Helicopter' set is ridiculously expensive!

cloaked7 · July 2015

Good point. LEGO themselves may add fuel to the reselling fire.

khmellymel · July 2015

^^ o.O Woah, I've never seen a Duplo set quite that expensive before...

Bumblepants · July 2015

Harold the Helicopter. Worst expensive aftermarket set of all time? I say yes. Even if your kid loves Thomas.

dougts · July 2015

cloaked7 said:

Good point. LEGO themselves may add fuel to the reselling fire.

wouldn't be the first time. WV Cottage and VW Bus were both sold out on [email protected] for the entire month of December during their inaugural holiday seasons, and I know there have been others as well (Friends Cruise ship it's first year for example)

tamamahm · July 2015

Yikes. That is the second year in a row now, that I've nabbed my kiddo's 'big Christmas present a month before it disappeared. Last year it was R2-D2. This year Ewok Village has been the big request. I bought it about a month ago.

I actually do understand some of the larger items not being available at this time of year. They need capacity for all the sets between August and the holiday season and then January releases. It makes sense to not make some sets.

Ewok Village does seem like a potentially odd choice to not make leading up to the holiday season. With Star Wars coming out, I would think that they would see a big jump in about anything Star Wars. My guess is they are betting on the new Star Wars sets selling that much more than current lines, so Ewok Village can move to the side. If that was the case, though, why not simply retire Ewok Village?

VorpalRyu · July 2015

@tamamahm, a fellow, early xmas shopper, its stuff like that, that makes me glad we get a lot of the important items out of the way before July. :)

tamamahm · July 2015

^It also makes me glad that I am on here where there is enough info and discussion to gauge when I should buy these items. :-)

Now, obviously if it was gone, I could direct my kiddo's interest elsewhere, but it is nice to be able to supply a large holiday present that one really, really wants.

juggles7 · July 2015

Quick question: when Lego comes out with #60098, Heavy Haul Train, will that mean the end is near for the #60052 Cargo Train? I wouldn't think so, since the Cargo Train was just released in 2014. Anyone?

Ronyar · July 2015

I've actually sold a Harold the Helicopter, although it was used. Was amazed what it went for.

madforLEGO · August 2015

juggles7 said:

Quick question: when Lego comes out with #60098, Heavy Haul Train, will that mean the end is near for the #60052 Cargo Train? I wouldn't think so, since the Cargo Train was just released in 2014. Anyone?

I do not believe so, I think this will likely be more like #3677 (that ran for about 2 years during the #7939 run) than a replacement for #60052
What also is interesting is that the #60052 has been on discount to about 156 for a while now it seems

prevere · August 2015

Citing the EV, how many times do you remember LEGO listing a far off date for delivery, only to reel in the date, or see the listing magical be back in stock? I remember that happening a bunch of times. They are sandbagging on the resellers, so there is stock come Oct-Nov for little Jimmy's parents.

TheLoneTensor · August 2015

madforLEGO said:

juggles7 said:

Quick question: when Lego comes out with #60098, Heavy Haul Train, will that mean the end is near for the #60052 Cargo Train? I wouldn't think so, since the Cargo Train was just released in 2014. Anyone?

I do not believe so, I think this will likely be more like #3677 (that ran for about 2 years during the #7939 run) than a replacement for #60052
What also is interesting is that the #60052 has been on discount to about 156 for a while now it seems

What's REALLY interesting is that's all #60052 is worth.

stevemack · August 2015

They will run consecutively in my opinion as per the ~3677 and #7939

Bumblepants · August 2015

Raptor Escape back to sold out. That was a quick batch

madforLEGO · August 2015

Bumblepants said:

Raptor Escape back to sold out. That was a quick batch

Guess that is 'Big'r' resellers at it again. Not sure how many LEGO will really make which is why I warned my brother that if he wanted them to get them while they were back because you never know when they will be sold out again.

shikadi · August 2015

Pet Shop says out of stock and we are currently making more. It's not EOL yet but is starting to make me anxious as I only recently decided I wanted it. Save 1 for me when it comes back? ;)

madforLEGO · August 2015

While there are rumors the Pet Shop is still around for another year, as far as I am concerned they are rumors. If you want one you better buy it ASAP, especially if it is to only have one for yourself.

Farmer_John · August 2015

What really amazes me is the breadth themes and sets that TLG is currently producing...it's so hard to keep up these days.

Either TLG must have dramatically increased their production capacity OR they are producing lower quantities across all themes (or some combination). To me it would seem to require an average reduction in set longevity, but sets like TB, PS and SoH seem to just hang in there.

shikadi · August 2015

madforLEGO said:

While there are rumors the Pet Shop is still around for another year, as far as I am concerned they are rumors. If you want one you better buy it ASAP, especially if it is to only have one for yourself.

That's exactly what I want to do, but I can't find a place that has it for RRP. I'm in the US

ryjay · August 2015

@Farmer_John ....I think the breadth is waaaay to broad. There is so much to choose from, and it is all readily available, that for the most part you no longer want it. I'm discovering more joy in finding set on clearance/sale then building anything.

BTW, as far as manufacturing goes I've never seen or read about how they do it. They might just be taking advantage of efficiency or economy of scale in production, able to do more in less time, and the wider breadth is the result, and it is what keeps the factories going.

Bumblepants · August 2015

shikadi said:

madforLEGO said:

While there are rumors the Pet Shop is still around for another year, as far as I am concerned they are rumors. If you want one you better buy it ASAP, especially if it is to only have one for yourself.

That's exactly what I want to do, but I can't find a place that has it for RRP. I'm in the US

Both of my local Lego Stores have had Pet Shops in stock the last couple times I have been, including yesterday.

JamesJT · August 2015

#10237 ToO could be gone. It is "Sold Out" at US [email protected] and "Out of Stock" on UK [email protected]

Billybrown · August 2015

JamesJT said:

#10237 ToO could be gone. It is "Sold Out" at US [email protected] and "Out of Stock" on UK [email protected]

Will be interesting to see what happens with this one in the secondary market. I've still yet to purchase, just feel £169 is a little heavy.

prevere · August 2015

I feel like ToO might behave like DA. Premium set of a brand that is just about to go dark.

SumoLego · August 2015

Farmer_John said:

What really amazes me is the breadth themes and sets that TLG is currently producing...it's so hard to keep up these days.

Either TLG must have dramatically increased their production capacity OR they are producing lower quantities across all themes (or some combination). To me it would seem to require an average reduction in set longevity, but sets like TB, PS and SoH seem to just hang in there.

In order to sell a billion worth of product, ya'll gotta increase production.

I'd be interested to see how much they adjust their production from year-to-year for particular sets. The Friends Cabin Cruiser is the one set I always point to for obvious production adjustments. It sold out quickly, and they made copious amounts in 2014.

Shib · August 2015

Farmer_John said:

What really amazes me is the breadth themes and sets that TLG is currently producing...it's so hard to keep up these days.

Either TLG must have dramatically increased their production capacity OR they are producing lower quantities across all themes (or some combination). To me it would seem to require an average reduction in set longevity, but sets like TB, PS and SoH seem to just hang in there.

I think this is part of the reason the last UltraAgents sets have been cancelled outside of the US, too many products fighting for limited production space. I think that the popular demand that bought Ninjago back while Chima was out really put things out of whack...putting out another Action theme (Ultra Agents) while there was an equivelant licenced theme (Superheroes) was pretty poorly planned.

JamesJT · August 2015

CCC said:

I believe accurate to the day before at worst.

I have been watching a some sets stock levels for a few weeks, the only time it looks accurate is when a set is “out of stock” at [email protected] and the stock level indicator suddenly drops to 0.

JamesJT · August 2015

prevere said:

I feel like ToO might behave like DA. Premium set of a brand that is just about to go dark.

ToO "Sold Out" everywhere now. There isn't even a Lord of the Rings category on the UK [email protected] site anymore.

DA was sold by Tesco with a 35% discount for a while after it EOL'd. I've never seen a discounted ToO in UK and I expect that there aren't that many around.

CCC · August 2015

JamesJT said:

CCC said:

I believe accurate to the day before at worst.

I have been watching a some sets stock levels for a few weeks, the only time it looks accurate is when a set is “out of stock” at [email protected] and the stock level indicator suddenly drops to 0.

How do you know when it is accurate? What are you comparing against?

JamesJT · August 2015

Stock check says there are x number available when [email protected] shows 0 available and the next day the graph looks like is manually reset to 0. See DS, ToO or #75055 for examples. It still shows 113 #42021 in stock but the set is sold out.

Billybrown · August 2015

#10237 will be very interesting. It was due to EOL towards the end of this year, but has obviously gone a little sooner than expected. Amazon direct have them for £231.31 at the moment and they have at least 999 of them! So that's really going to screw up the secondary market for the majority, likewise Mars Rover can be back ordered for £57.99 with them. Is this going to be a new trend for them I wonder?

Farmer_John · August 2015

What really brought the vast number of sets TLG is now producing to my attention is the Friends theme. TLG now shows 77 different Friends sets to be available, and this is an unlicensed theme that wasn't even available a few years ago. Ditto with all the new Super Heroes sets (Marvel and DC), albeit they are licensed. Both these relatively new themes (Friends and Super Heroes) now seem to be flagship themes for TLG, driving a large percentage of their revenue.

This is what amazes me about TLG...they seem to have a good pipeline of ideas which is getting stronger, and they actually protect their intellectual property (unlike many other companies). If their production can hold up, their future looks even brighter than today.

littlepuppi · August 2015

ToO now Sold out at lego EU.. I emailed them and asked if I could order it to get a winter solider as well, and they replied telling me it was gone and not coming back....

CCC · August 2015

JamesJT said:

Stock check says there are x number available when [email protected] shows 0 available and the next day the graph looks like is manually reset to 0. See DS, ToO or #75055 for examples. It still shows 113 #42021 in stock but the set is sold out.

I think that is how the data is collected. If data is collected at time X, then it will always be delayed. If you check afterwards, you only know what stock was at time X. I wouldn't rely on it for deciding when to buy when stocks are very low.

#42021 has gone on sale, which will increase the number sold compared to when it is not on sale. But also for some reason it hasn't updated since end of June - you should always check the graph, not just the number in stock.

Vortex · August 2015

Yes, The glorious Tower of Orthanc , the greatest and the last of The Lord Of The Rings Theme to bite the dust some 10 days back .

I was lucky enough to get one of the very last one it seems, I'm grateful for this one ,in fact I am grateful that I was just out of my dark age when the theme was officially announced . At the time I had years of catching up to do .

So a lil ode to a great theme albeit an incomplete theme and at times a confused theme ( by the time it branched to the Hobbit)

For those Lotr fans who will be rediscovering Lego in time , it is the Tower , Bag End and to some extent Helms Deep that will be looked upon most lustily .

My two cents ...

Vortex · August 2015

And now time for a lil light moment, an ode to discontinuing sets and discontinuing hobbies

SumoLego · August 2015

Is the LotR Pirate Ambush also 'officially' gone?

Bumblepants · August 2015

^Not the ones with marked up prices on the shelves at TRU :D

BrickDancer · August 2015

Feels like a disturbance in the Matrix. I just got an email from Barnes & Noble informing they now carry the Exclusive sets (UCS Tumbler, UCS SW, Modulars, Mini Cooper, etc). Changes afoot, but I don't understand the factors that lead to this.

On a related note, I tried using a 15% coupon a few days ago for a Friends set for the GF. And the coupon wouldn't scan at all, unlike how it usually is even when the coupon says "Excludes All Lego". This time the cashier had to manually enter in the code and override it some way. It's almost like the discount loopholes are closing on all avenues. Thanks a lot for the heavy handedness TLG.

ecmo47 · August 2015

Found a Tumbler at TRU along with the Birds set.

madforLEGO · August 2015

I am wary of any TRU B&M that has exclusives, unless they are one of those 'main' downtown type stores, or a landmark store I think they call them. Otherwise seeing a set typically not at a TRU could be a return in which case I'm guessing someone picked out the figures and returned it. It is a cynical way to look at finding such sets in stores that otherwise would not have them, but I'm sure it has also saved me the headache of opening a set that is missing pieces or is not even LEGO.

juggles7 · August 2015

Tower of Orthanc is back from the dead at [email protected] You can pre-order one if you're so inclined. If you want one, this could be your last shot.

namzep · August 2015

juggles7 said:

Tower of Orthanc is back from the dead at [email protected] You can pre-order one if you're so inclined. If you want one, this could be your last shot.

Thanks for the heads up. Hopefully, it'll actually ship.

SumoLego · August 2015

BrickDancer said:

Feels like a disturbance in the Matrix. I just got an email from Barnes & Noble informing they now carry the Exclusive sets (UCS Tumbler, UCS SW, Modulars, Mini Cooper, etc). Changes afoot, but I don't understand the factors that lead to this.

On a related note, I tried using a 15% coupon a few days ago for a Friends set for the GF. And the coupon wouldn't scan at all, unlike how it usually is even when the coupon says "Excludes All Lego". This time the cashier had to manually enter in the code and override it some way. It's almost like the discount loopholes are closing on all avenues. Thanks a lot for the heavy handedness TLG.

Target had a program where you could order exclusives. Not sure if they did away with it.

juggles7 · August 2015

Although you cannot order it, I saw a retailer's webpage under construction for the upcoming Toy Shop that's been discussed here. Full title was Lego Creator Expert Winter Toy Shop 10249, for ages 12 and up, $79.95 US dollars, with a UPC of 0673419229999. Release date October 1st. I look forward to seeing it.

sklamb · August 2015

For those of us who missed the original set, this is great news!!

juggles7 · August 2015

I notice a second wave of Bionicle is coming out now. Wave 1 of the $15 sets is being discounted, and I'm seeing a lot of Gali and Lewa on the local clearance aisles, but little else. Evidently all the new sets are the $15 size/price, and there's a 2-pack for $30, but there are no new $20 sets, so I guess that's why I'm not seeing any of the $20 sets being marked down. Does anyone have any thoughts about the aftermarket potential of the first wave, especially the $15 sets that are on their way out?

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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