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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Although you cannot order it, I saw a retailer's webpage under construction for the upcoming Toy Shop that's been discussed here. Full title was Lego Creator Expert Winter Toy Shop 10249, for ages 12 and up, $79.95 US dollars, with a UPC of 0673419229999. Release date October 1st.  I look forward to seeing it.




    RonyarJohnnyfinlandiamadforLEGOFarmer_Johnprevere
  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 494
    For those of us who missed the original set, this is great news!!
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I notice a second wave of Bionicle is coming out now. Wave 1 of the $15 sets is being discounted, and I'm seeing a lot of Gali and Lewa on the local clearance aisles, but little else. Evidently all the new sets are the $15 size/price, and there's a 2-pack for $30, but there are no new $20 sets, so I guess that's why I'm not seeing any of the $20 sets being marked down. Does anyone have any thoughts about the aftermarket potential of the first wave, especially the $15 sets that are on their way out? 
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    That contradicts what other people have said about the Winter Toy Shop...they said it wasn't. Hmm, who to believe.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Dude. You're a little vague. They said it wasn't what? 
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/20639/any-idea-what-the-2015-winter-village-set-is#latest

    See the post by @Grogall and subsequent discussion.  I appreciate the level of clever hints but ultimately vague (or non-spoiler) detail until the set is unveiled.
    Sethro3
  • namzepnamzep Member Posts: 42
    Orthanc is showing up on the Lego (U.S.) site at the moment.  Not sure how long it will stay.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    juggles7 said:
    Although you cannot order it, I saw a retailer's webpage under construction for the upcoming Toy Shop that's been discussed here. Full title was Lego Creator Expert Winter Toy Shop 10249, for ages 12 and up, $79.95 US dollars, with a UPC of 0673419229999. Release date October 1st.  I look forward to seeing it.




    Bummer! I was holding out for a new train.
    FollowsCloselyjuggles7
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    @goshe7 , thank you. Grogall is seldom wrong, so the website I found could be wrong. Sometimes retailers use words to describe a set that are not the same words that are ultimately printed on the box. I've seen this on WalMart receipts, on Target plan-a-grams, etc. They know a set is coming, it's been ordered, and they have a spot on a shelf in mind for it. But sometimes they get what it is ultimately called, wrong. Better take my news with a grain of salt. Also thanks for pointing out that some might not want the surprise spoiled. I didn't realize. I'm not one of those, but I understand it, and would certainly give a spoiler warning, if I had solid news.
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    juggles7 said:
    Quick question: when Lego comes out with #60098, Heavy Haul Train, will that mean the end is near for the #60052 Cargo Train? I wouldn't think so, since the Cargo Train was just released in 2014. Anyone?
    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Heavy-Haul-Train-60098?fromListing=listing

    http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Cargo-Train-60052

    Both available in US now.
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    Orthanc showing "sold out" again 
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Orthanc up on Amazon US, at the moment.
  • eggsheneggshen Middleton, WIMember Posts: 552
    Anyone else think that #60096 Deep Sea Operation Base is going to be the next #60064 Arctic Supply Plane? Both are TRU exclusives. The Supply Plane was on shelves for a couple of weeks then was gone forever. My local TRU had a couple of the bases then sold out before I could get one. I went in there last night, saw one on the shelf and nabbed it. 

    Maybe I'm just way too paranoid about exclusives after almost missing the supply plane and the JW raptor escape. 
  • LegoTTLegoTT Member Posts: 479
    http://m.target.com/p/lego-the-tower-of-ortc-10237/-/A-14663023?ref=tgt_adv_XSG10001&AFID=google_pla_df&LNM=14663023&CPNG=Toys&kpid=14663023&LID=34pgs&ci_src=17588969&ci_sku=14663023&kpid=14663023&gclid=CO_WlKHflMcCFUg8gQodh4MN6Q

    ToO available on Target.com...
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,565
    LegoTT said:
    http://m.target.com/p/lego-the-tower-of-ortc-10237/-/A-14663023?ref=tgt_adv_XSG10001&AFID=google_pla_df&LNM=14663023&CPNG=Toys&kpid=14663023&LID=34pgs&ci_src=17588969&ci_sku=14663023&kpid=14663023&gclid=CO_WlKHflMcCFUg8gQodh4MN6Q

    ToO available on Target.com...
    Am I the only one troubled that the name of the set is spelled wrong, or has an odd, unecessary abbreviation...

    LEGO® The Tower of Ortc 10237

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    eggshen said:
    Anyone else think that #60096 Deep Sea Operation Base is going to be the next #60064 Arctic Supply Plane? Both are TRU exclusives. The Supply Plane was on shelves for a couple of weeks then was gone forever. My local TRU had a couple of the bases then sold out before I could get one. I went in there last night, saw one on the shelf and nabbed it. 

    Maybe I'm just way too paranoid about exclusives after almost missing the supply plane and the JW raptor escape. 
    I find many of these quick-sell-out-retailer-exclusive sets tend to be something I just let pass right on by.  In other words, more often than not, I didn't actually want them, until them being sold out triggered some weird, illogical thing in my head started telling me I should get them (i.e. them being sold out, rising on the secondary market, etc.).  Unless it was for pure resale purposes, there's no way I would have bought an Arctic Supply Plane, even knowing what I know now.

    You said you only grabbed one, so I'm curious as to why you actually picked it up?
    madforLEGOLegoboy
  • eggsheneggshen Middleton, WIMember Posts: 552
    @TheLoneTensor, well, here is my thought process. The first time I saw them a while back I knew they were an exclusive but I decided to pass. My thoughts at the time were something to the effect of "nah, they wouldn't do that again, would they?". I left them, thought about it a while (also thinking about the recent Raptor Escape at Walmart and the Arctic Plane situations), then decided to go back to get them that evening. They were gone. Not exactly an impulse buy at $100 so I think that a like minded person probably bought them.

    I work near the store so I pop in there a couple of times per week to check out inventory levels, etc. Pretty obsessive, I know, but folks around these parts scoop up deals fast so you have to be on your toes. Polybags also go quickly, I have missed out entirely on some of those. I saw a Deep Sea Base on the shelf and nabbed it. They only had one, I'm not sure if they received them that day or if it was a return. Hmmmm, I now wish I would have asked. The seals are fine so at least it probably wasn't opened if it was a return.

    It will go to the City collector in my family UNLESS the price takes off. I will have to keep an eye at TRU to see if they get any more. If they do I will probably grab one more just in case, but it might be like the Icebreaker where they sold out right before Christmas (driving the price up up up) then restocked them in January. You never know with these exclusives.


  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Makes sense.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,565
    The Zombies, The Zombies.... The Zombies.
  • Final_SignFinal_Sign KentuckyMember Posts: 101
    edited August 2015
    *
  • Final_SignFinal_Sign KentuckyMember Posts: 101
    oh man, wrong thread!
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,839
    Somebody wants to trade my #40145 for a Petshop. Since I got the promo for free it would technically be a free Petshop, ha ha. Is the Petshop the set to get for investing right now?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    bobabricks said:
    Somebody wants to trade my #40145 for a Petshop. Since I got the promo for free it would technically be a free Petshop, ha ha. Is the Petshop the set to get for investing right now?
    Pet shop is likely the next one to retire. While the little store builds are neat, I would opine that in the long run, the PS is likely to go up in price more than a #40145, but again that is just my opinion.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    40145 will alway be the more desired (compated to supply) set. But it has already had its biggest gains. Swap for a PS if you want more. Keek the 40145 if you wamt diversity. 
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,839
    @madforLEGO @FollowsClosely Okay I'll jump the gun and get the petshop. ;)
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,839
    Unfortunately that guy didn't want to get the set because "Something came up". Oh well, still for sale for $200CAD. ;)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    bobabricks said:
    Unfortunately that guy didn't want to get the set because "Something came up". Oh well, still for sale for $200CAD. ;)
    Well I would still recommend to buy the PS now, even if you are still unsure if to get it or not. While no guarantee that it will not be around for another year still at LEGO you will kick yourself if you decide you want it after EOL. Never mind that if it does somehow stick around for another year at LEGO only (which is a rumor at this point) then you also have to assume resellers will still be finding new ways to buy these without drawing attention to themselves (and causing them to be banned as a 'reseller'), therefore making it continuously out of stock at LEGO even (which is happening now somewhat)
    So I would say if you can find it at retail, buy it now or possibly regret it later.
    pharmjodbobabricks
  • DadsAFOLDadsAFOL USAMember Posts: 617
    For anyone thinking Tower Bridge was likely to go this year, think again.  User Deadfraggle over on BP reported that this set was restocked in Lego Stores, with a redesigned box.  And apparently 8 more pieces.

    Old box:

    New box:

    DraugPitfall69brickupdate
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    ^ box was updated with new piece count years ago...

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/11149/tower-bridge-piece-count-change/p1
    Pitfall69brickupdate
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,097
    Bandit said:
    ^ box was updated with new piece count years ago...

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/11149/tower-bridge-piece-count-change/p1
    No, the box in the photo above is indeed new.  It probably sells well.  Better than the Sydney Opera House I assume.
    Pitfall69SumoLegobrickupdate
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    ^My curse of the Imperial Flagship continues...
  • BanditBandit Member Posts: 890
    mathew said:
    Bandit said:
    ^ box was updated with new piece count years ago...

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/11149/tower-bridge-piece-count-change/p1
    No, the box in the photo above is indeed new.  It probably sells well.  Better than the Sydney Opera House I assume.
    I never said it wasn't. I said the box was updated with the new piece count years ago. That is not new. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,565
    edited August 2015
    That is definitely a new box.  I bought an extra (or two) only a few months ago and the 'Expert' designation was absent.

    Let me be the first to suggest that the old box should command atleast 25% more than the new box once it retires in 2020.
    bobabrickspharmjodRainstorm26snowhitiebrickupdate
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    SumoLego said:


    Let me be the first to suggest that the old box should command atleast 25% more than the new box once it retires in 2020.
    Why, the new box will be more rare, i hope   ;)  
     
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,565
    ^ By the time it actually retires, who knows hoany of each will be out in the wild.

    (I have a few in the old box, so I'm arbitrarily setting the market higher for the original box...)
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,157
    It will be interesting to see if other sets in the Creator Expert line get revamped packaging to match as well
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    Call me old fashioned but I quite liked the stud printing on the top half of the old expert/advanced creator sets packaging 
    3stackshs
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    For some reason , it also always immediately brings to my mind the Taj Mahal box, and tells my mind to attach more prestige to the current box/set in question ... Strange thing the mind 
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    Vortex said:
    Call me old fashioned but I quite liked the stud printing on the top half of the old expert/advanced creator sets packaging 
    I also like the dimensions shown at the bottom left.
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    edited August 2015
    Which leads me to wonder,TLG could do well with a mini / midi replica / architecture series of the original Taj Mahal.

    I think that should sell like hot cakes , considering everyone of us those who don't have one , would find some consolation with a decent representation of the iconic Lego set and that itself is a statement and testament of how special the original set is .
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,886
    ^Well they did that wit the Eiffel Tower, so I imagine they will at some point. A mini Ferris Wheel polybag giveaway would be a great idea, much like they did with the MINI Cooper.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,540
    The box can change, but does that mean it is sticking around forever, or that LEGO is trying to just keep everything up to the same design? I still see the TB going at end of '15, maybe early 16, but maybe that is my optimism talking.
    juggles7
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    Lego needs a new flagship model and perhaps this is it. Never saw a new box design in the DS so I'd guess TB will be around for quite a while. (Nothing to stock up here, move along, move along......)
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    ^ to change the packaging of a big set like this 6 months before decommissioning sound to me like a very poor economic decision . 

    Personally, I'm quite sure TLG already knows that better than someone like myself and done the math before calling on the repackage decision.

    No my lords , TB is here to stay .... Least a full year from now .
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342


    Maybe we need to steer our wandering predicting minds towards Sydney  ;)
    kiki180703
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,157
    Found the Maersk ship for 20% off at a Lego Store in the Boston area. I guess that means they are still struggling to get rid of this one? I went ahead and got one for myself as $30 off is a good deal on an exclusive set.
    TheLoneTensorjuggles7
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    #10237 now listed as retired product at [email protected]
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    SumoLego said:
    That is definitely a new box.  I bought an extra (or two) only a few months ago and the 'Expert' designation was absent.

    Let me be the first to suggest that the old box should command atleast 25% more than the new box once it retires in 2020.
    SumoLego said:
    ^ By the time it actually retires, who knows hoany of each will be out in the wild.

    (I have a few in the old box, so I'm arbitrarily setting the market higher for the original box...)
    I would think that the newer box would be rarer. The TB is most definitely on its way out soon and there will be many more older boxes out there than the newer design. The same goes for the Pet Shop. They recently changed the box for that set as well. With that said, I don't think either will command a premium. I haven't seen the Vampire Castle with glow in the dark stickers sell for more than the Vampire Castle without the glow in the dark stickers. 


    juggles7
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited August 2015
    Always interested in watching patterns, here's a chart of the modulars I was playing with (dates are US availability, sorry for the column spacing, charts don't always paste well here):

    Set # Name Retired? Start End Life (years) # at Retire
    10182 Café Corner Yes 10/24/07 12/6/09 2.12 3
    10185 Green Grocer Yes 3/5/08 11/8/10 2.68 3
    10197 Fire Brigade Yes 9/12/09 12/2/13 4.22 5
    10211 Grand Emporium Yes 3/3/10 10/5/14 4.59 5
    10218 Pet Shop
    		5/12/11 8/9/15 4.25 4
    10224 Town Hall Yes 3/3/12 10/4/14 2.59 5
    10232 Palace Cinema
    		3/1/13 8/9/15 2.44 4
    10243 Parisian Restaurant
    		1/1/14 8/9/15 1.60 4
    10246 Detective's Office
    		1/1/15 8/9/15 0.60 4

    A few interesting notes:
    • # at Retire = total number of modulars available at the point of retirement (including the one retiring)
    • The Pet Shop is technically not retired yet, so at 4.25 years, it just recently passed up the Fire Brigade (4.22 years) as the second-longest lived modular behind the Grand Emporium (4.59 years).
    • The PC is only at 2.44 years, which is about 2 months behind what the TH was (2.59 years) at retirement
    • Since the TH retired a day before the GE, technically the GE only had 4 active at retirement, but in reality it was 5 (which is reflected in the chart)
    • The #'s for not-yet-retired sets reflect if they were to retire today
    • No Market Street?  No, I didn't include the aberration
    • Someone check my math :)
    juggles7Pitfall69pharmjodSethro3MrJ_NY
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    TH retired at 1.5 years not 5. Good chart!
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