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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    ^ Only in the US. It is still available elsewhere.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    ^Exactly, it was sold out in the UK for nearly two weeks not that long ago. no one seemed to acknowledge it. Sells out in the US and thats it. Its 100% retired.
    hewman
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,313
    ^ I still suspect we're missing out on the last three UA sets because we haven't bought enough DS sets, EU & AU, get to it... /sarc
    xiahna
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    SuperTramp It's worth noting that the US is 5 times bigger in terms of population, and that Wal-Mart and Target are some of the biggest retailers worldwide. Also: because it's also sold out in the UK on Amazon and LEGO.com, that would show a trend that it is now sold out in bigger markets... 

    pharmjodMilne44
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    Yet Europe is bigger than the US ...
    VorpalRyuMilne44
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    Was never sold out in the UK, only back dated after May the 4th sale 
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @CCC Bigger than US in terms of what?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    Farmer_John said:
    Here are my predictions for the end of this year: SW Hoth Cave Fire Brigade SSW Battle of Endor SW Republican Dropship SW Tantative IV All Toy Story Sets Emerald Night Winter Village Toy Shop And my wildcard is: SW Deathstar (mainly because it might drive business to the other large SW set...the Super Star Destroyer.
    And so goes the last set on page 1 of the thread to retire (Oct 2011).
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    BrickDancer Population. Europe as a whole is 742,452,000 according to Wikipedia, US is only 318.9 million. 
    VorpalRyuDougout
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    edited July 2015
    CCC said:
    Yet Europe is bigger than the US ...
    BrickDancer Population. Europe as a whole is 742,452,000 according to Wikipedia, US is only 318.9 million. 
    It doesn't matter how many people:

    "In the LEGO Group’s largest market, the US, sales grew double digit as did sales in the UK, France, Russia and China, while Central and Northern European markets achieved healthy single digit growth rates."

    China has more people than any country, yet the US is still TLG's largest market. 
    BrickDancernicoyagomezpharmjodTheLoneTensor
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    Isn't that because they split Europe into individual countries? Any how, size doesn't matter, if it is available at [email protected] somewhere, it is not retired. For example, the bat cave was available much longer vin the US than in Europe. That kept European prices down, since the US availability keeps prices down. If a European reseller can fulfill US orders for the DS it is not going to rise too much in the US. Saying the DS has retired when it has only gone out in one country is like saying for example the last wave of Ultra Agents doesn't even exist, as they are not for sale in the UK.
    leego76VorpalRyuMilne44
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Go figure. The death Star is getting over 450$ in bids less than a week after retirement. Lol no matter how long it is out people keep waiting until it is too late. Fine for me of course having three of them. 
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 496
    I bought a second copy from Walmart last night but no shipping confirmation yet. Has anyone ordered from there as well and had their order shipped?
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Everything is relative. I went to bed last night able to buy an MSRP DS.  I woke up today and can't do that anymore. It sure looks retired from my point of view.
    brickupdate
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,313
    edited July 2015
    The argument that a set is retired from sale by TLG because it isn't available in one market because its the "biggest" market is a fallacy. If that particular set is available on any of TLG's [email protected] sites, regardless of location, regardless of market size, the set isn't retired from sale by TLG, just unavailable in some markets. Let's put it this way, say hypothetically, the biggest market for the Elves sets are the Finland & Iceland, would you all agree the sets are retired once they are not available to Finland & Iceland? Even if the sets are available to Asia for the next two years? Or North America for the next six months? Or flip it, NA for two years & Asia six months? Is it retired or not?
    xiahna
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    There is an acceleration in sales for Europe ... what do you reckon, 1-2 days before it has gone here? Limit is still 5 for UK buyers.

    ds2.png 43.8K
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Technically you're right, and perhaps we should append every statement with allegedly and in the US. Either way, unavailable and retired are semantics that don't seem very different to me. I can't get it at MSRP whether it's still hanging around in Germany, some mom and pop store in Nebraska or Mars. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    ^ That is correct but as this is the secondary market value thread, the secondary market value is severely curtailed while it is still easily available elsewhere. There will of course be an increase in price since you cannot get it at the US MSRP, but can get it at EU RRP + postage if buying from a retail store that will ship to the US (or the same plus a finders fee buying from an EU reseller). The resale value is unlikely to go much above that price while it is available here.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    edited July 2015
    PS. It is still only "sold out" on the US [email protected] isn't it?

    Lonely Mountain on UK [email protected] has the same status, whereas it is still available in the US.

    PPS. @Huw, there is a problem on the stock tracker when an item goes out of stock - it doesn't update and still shows the wrong amount of stock available (see the Lonely Mountain set for the problem - it is claiming stock of 56, yet it's OOS and hasn't been updated since 25 June).
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    I think there are likely certain inferences that can be made about certain sets. Lonely mountain is more than likely done. When its gone, it's gone. Does it have a label of retired? No. Does it matter? Only in the most technical sense. I believe the same can be said for Death Star. If you are in Europe and don't have one and want one, get it now. It's done.
    goshe7
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited July 2015
    I've always felt that the purpose of this thread is to attempt to identify when a particular set will be gone so I can make plans to purchase it before its cost overly inflates above RRP. I generally don't separate between countries because if it's gone from one, then it will be gone from the others soon enough.

    In this case, the DS is now gone in the USA. I predict it will be gone soon in the UK and elsewhere, so get it while you can. The rest is semantics.
    pharmjodFollowsCloselydougtsBrickDancerPitfall69madforLEGO
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    edited July 2015
    I generally don't separate between countries because if it's gone from one, then it will be gone from the others soon enough.

    In this case, the DS is now gone in the USA. I predict it will be gone soon in the UK and elsewhere, so get it while you can. The rest is semantics.

    Normally, but then ... #6860 ...


    So the Batcave was _officially_ retired since 12 Nov 2013.
    DadAceCobra1
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    Batcave was a sub $100 set likely produced in much larger quantities and sold on the shelves at every major retailer in the USA. If you want to compare it to a $400 behemoth of a set that was only sold online and has been out for 6 years, go for it.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    It was also a mid range price set in the UK and sold in many places. Yet the fact remains it retired a full year in the UK before it did in the US.

    DS is already in a category of it's own having been out so long, so usual rules don't apply.

    I have no doubt it is going in Europe too. However, if the Batcave was not retired until Nov 2014, then the DS has not retired yet since it is still available. Unless you want to qualify it with "retired from US [email protected]".

    I think it would be much clearer if people didn't refer to [email protected] when something is OOS or retired, but instead refer to UK [email protected], US [email protected], etc. as they are different.

    VorpalRyu
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    This thread is relatively calm with the DS being sold out at [email protected] US, I would have figured people would be jumping out windows by now
    brickupdate
  • thedingman5thedingman5 Great Lakes, USAMember Posts: 272
    Dougout said:
    This thread is relatively calm with the DS being sold out at [email protected] US, I would have figured people would be jumping out windows by now
    If you wanted an entertaining "DS is gone" discussion, Brickpicker was the place to be a couple of days ago.
    pharmjodbrickupdate
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    I think we need a hard definition of what "EOL", "Sold Out" and "Retired" means in terms of Lego. There are times where I can find a set thst has been gone from Lego [email protected] for years on the shelf at TRU. This does not mean it's not retired or unavailable. Some stores order way too much product and/or they find a lost shipment somewhere and place it on the shelf.
    VorpalRyu
  • Final_SignFinal_Sign KentuckyMember Posts: 101
    ^that will be as easy as defining what SW sets are UCS . . .
    RonyartiminchicagoBumblepantsPitfall69SumoLegoFollowsCloselyGoldchains
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^That's an easy one:

    http://brickset.com/sets/theme-Star-Wars/subtheme-Ultimate-Collector-Series

    There is no argument to be had about what's truly UCS.
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    edited July 2015
    If it is that simple, then as Lego use the retired tag, deciding if something is retired is simple. If Lego uses the retired product tab or the set is removed from [email protected], then it is truly retired. Otherwise it is not.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    CCC said:
    I generally don't separate between countries because if it's gone from one, then it will be gone from the others soon enough.

    In this case, the DS is now gone in the USA. I predict it will be gone soon in the UK and elsewhere, so get it while you can. The rest is semantics.

    Normally, but then ... #6860 ...


    So the Batcave was _officially_ retired since 12 Nov 2013.
    I can find 100+ examples of sets universally going EOL within a reasonable period of time for every example of a set only EOLing in a subset of countries. Since the gist of this thread is all about "predictions," the best data point we'll ever have to predict a set going away (without infiltrating TLG itself) is when a set permanently disappears from a major region (e.g., North America, Europe, etc.).

    Again, I'm only referring to TLG. TRU can have sets in hand for an eternity...and at post-EOL prices too. :wink: 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    I also predict DS will be retired worldwide soon (probably within a month). My point is that it is not retired yet. As it is still available.
    VorpalRyu
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    The Question is,shall i get me a DS (or 2) if i can get it for 380€ e. (RRP is 420€ over here) for investing or not worth it?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,005
    I'm not sure its worth it. Note there is one (not) selling for £250 in the marketplace. No doubt it will go up, but most older collectors will have it if they want it, the kids will be into ep VII and there is probably a lot of reseller stock out there. The figs are out of date now, its a big one to ship and store. And at that price it cannot be parted out and the minifigs sold to recoup purchase cost. For me, it would be a do not invest, for those reasons.
    juggles7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    If you think it'll hit $1,000 in 2 years, you may want to consider it. I see $800 as the long term (July 2017+) stable price for it. Everyone here will have a different opinion on it, which is great. Take this note with a 1x1 round plate (or a grain of salt).
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    CCC said:
    I also predict DS will be retired worldwide soon (probably within a month). My point is that it is not retired yet. As it is still available.
    Not in the U.S.  It's retired there.
    pharmjod
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    CCC said:
    If it is that simple, then as Lego use the retired tag, deciding if something is retired is simple. If Lego uses the retired product tab or the set is removed from [email protected], then it is truly retired. Otherwise it is not.
    I've seen products removed from [email protected] and then come back as well. 
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 914
    Wasn't the same said for the SSD, "dont buy it, its too big etc" well thats made a nice steady climb over the last year?
    prevere
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    SSD wasn't out for nearly as long as the death star though.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    stevemack said:
    Wasn't the same said for the SSD, "dont buy it, its too big etc" well thats made a nice steady climb over the last year?
    Yes. And I'm still kicking myself for not buying one.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    pharmjod said:
    SSD wasn't out for nearly as long as the death star though.
    It would seem at least plausible that this could be different means to the same end.

    The DS was out so long that many of the early speculators have already cut their losses and sold.  (I know I've read at least someone said they did that, somewhere).  Few people buying in the middle of life as it became clear the set was not going to go away for a long time.  Typical end-of-production rush for both DS and SSD.

    Not saying I think the DS will follow the same path as SSD.  Just that the shelf time alone isn't necessarily a reason to confidently state this won't follow the SSD path.  
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    How do you see how many deathstars are left at lego in the EU?
  • LEGOMAD73LEGOMAD73 STAFFORDSHIREMember Posts: 149
    edited July 2015
    How do you see how many deathstars are left at lego in the EU?

    There were 279 left this morning. It shows on in the set search page if you are logged in.
  • littlepuppilittlepuppi Member Posts: 181
    what page is that? I am logged in, never noticed how to see how many left..
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    An interesting note, but Krog, one of the Frosticons of Series 5 for the Mixels, is listed as Sold Out on the U.S. Shop at Home already.

    I'm not sure how the Mixels do on the aftermarket, but with how new Series 5 still seems to be it kind of surprised me.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,343
    I get the feeling that Mixels have lost their novelty a bit, I think they put out too many too fast and it's resulted in there being a few weaker designs that drag the whole range down.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,806
    goshe7 said:
    pharmjod said:
    SSD wasn't out for nearly as long as the death star though.
    It would seem at least plausible that this could be different means to the same end.

    The DS was out so long that many of the early speculators have already cut their losses and sold.  (I know I've read at least someone said they did that, somewhere).  Few people buying in the middle of life as it became clear the set was not going to go away for a long time.  Typical end-of-production rush for both DS and SSD.

    Not saying I think the DS will follow the same path as SSD.  Just that the shelf time alone isn't necessarily a reason to confidently state this won't follow the SSD path.  
    I take anyone in the US saying they sold their DS's early with a grain of salt. Only because the cost associated with selling them means that they likely had to sell them over retail to break even, or make very little, which I do not see Resellers doing, even if they got them on a BOGO50%. I'm guessing many are still holding many. Plus Im certain big 'R' resellers will have been the ones quickly draining stocks at Amazon and other retailers that still happened to have them in stock after [email protected] US sold out
    However, the demand will likely be as such that you will have those who buy a set right after EOL hoping it will still rise more than they pay, those who wanted one but missed out, and you have those who come into the hobby and want one. So My guess is demand will be someone high for it still.

  • AceCobra1AceCobra1 UKMember Posts: 565
    So does out of stock normally mean that they are not planning restock or there is no certain term they use other than retire?
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