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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^^and^^^ The trick is having patience, which I often lack. Sure, you can build a collection of any kind...if you have the money. But building a collection at a reasonable cost is another thing altogether. I've found that I tend to open the purse strings a bit more the closer I get to completing a particular collection. The pros keep their patience to the very end.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    Farmer_John said:
    LotR, Hobbit or SW (as you did) would be really special, albeit expensive!
    LOTR and Hobbit are relatively easy / cheap to complete aren't they? There were not that many sets to get to have a full set of minifigs, and nothing excluive to comic cons. I guess it is mainly Blue Coat Bilbo that is expensive - although even that was available quite cheaply for a while.
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    Easy yes but some of the early LOTR figures have shot up!  #9471 and # 9474 figs aren't cheap in particular.  Still, best get them sooner rather than later.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    Yeah, I guess it depends when you started collecting. Those sets were so cheap once!
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    CCC said:
    Yeah, I guess it depends when you started collecting. Those sets were so cheap once!
    Most of the Character Minifigures start at least at 10€ (in "new" condition), some even at 20€ like Pippin, crazy how they shoot up and i wonder when they reach their plateau?!
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,021
    edited June 2015
    There is the SDCC Bard and Azog as well.

    (Although I don't think either figure is exclusive.)
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    ^ Yes, but you don't need them to be minifigure complete.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    ^You just need them to be LotR Complete ;)
    SumoLego
  • BubbaMBubbaM Member Posts: 6
    Farmer_John said:



    John

    Did you calculate these by hand, because Brckpicker is still only reporting up to April? Thanks
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    ^He said he used Bricklink sold prices, so I would assume he calculated by hand. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    ^^^ yeah, but then you also need the Sting sword set, the stickers, ...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,446
    ^It truly is neverending.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,752
    ^ Which is why you set parameters on your collection instead of simply collecting everything. ;)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    BubbaM said:
    Farmer_John said:



    John

    Did you calculate these by hand, because Brckpicker is still only reporting up to April? Thanks
    Just grabbed the number in BL and plotted them in Excel. It should be as current as BL is with their sales.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I will defer to @SumoLego for comments on collecting LotR and Hobbit minifigures. He's all over them...
    SumoLego
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^You need to add all the fake LEGO Chinese knockoffs too, and the MegaBlok ones. Haha.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    prevere said:
    I'd love to see the Cars molds used for a NASCAR speedway.
    I'd rather see them make IndyCar or WEC sets first. NASCAR has been terrible for so many years now I barely watch it.

    Plus that's a lot of companies they would need to get into contact with for licenses.

    Sorry for the random off-topic to everyone else.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^No apologies needed @SithLord196 since you're in 'the' thread, there's no such thing as off-topic here.
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 1,070
    What are your hours on ninjago attack on ninjago city? I only ask because there are 3-4 sets at a Walmart not too far away that has them for $60. Only problem is that the boxes are pretty worn out (not crushed but definite shelf/storage wear).
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,294
    ^Great price but the big factor will be the upcoming exclusive Ninjago Temple which will probably take away a lot of aftermarket sales from the system set, at least to adult collectors.
    ReesesPieces
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    On the subject of Ninjago, I've heard others in this thread mention the "red" sets. I know those are the color of the original Ninjago set boxes. Are all the red boxed sets generally high or just some. Can someone elaborate? Thanks in advance...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I like the #70728 set. I picked up a personal copy at Wal-Mart for ~$44.50 during an extra 50% off clearance sale my local one had. I'd have likely bought more if they would have had more than one. I think the building in it is nice. At 50% off its probably not a bad set to have a few copies of, but I'm not going heavy in Ninjago or Chima ever.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Going heavy on Ninjago in the first or second wave was the way to go. I wasn't smart enough to do that. Does seem like it's lost its aftermarket power nowadays just with other LEGO-based licensed competition.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,021
    I'm a completionist. Short of prototypes and non-production items, I would not consider a collection complete without exclusives. For instance, I consider my SW minifig keychain collection complete only because I think I have every variation of every keychain. And the dumb exclusive White Boba Fett. I wouldn't consider a Jurassic World collection complete unless you've got the puny Dr. Wu polybag, and the TRU mini-build.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    SumoLego said:
    I'm a completionist. Short of prototypes and non-production items, I would not consider a collection complete without exclusives. For instance, I consider my SW minifig keychain collection complete only because I think I have every variation of every keychain. And the dumb exclusive White Boba Fett. I wouldn't consider a Jurassic World collection complete unless you've got the puny Dr. Wu polybag, and the TRU mini-build.
    I'd agree that the Dr Wu poly is needed, but not the TRU build, as it is not a real lego set (as in packaged in lego packaging and sealed by lego). Same with LOTR. I wouldn't consider the Sting sword necessary for a complete collection as it was a build instore promotion rather than a real set.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,021
    That's one of the enjoyable things about collecting. If we were talking about a 'complete' set, collectors can argue about what counts and what doesn't. I'd consider TRU builds and publicly available in-store promotions as necessary to have a complete set. Makes the chase more difficult...
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 1,070
    I'm also thinking about how there is a ninjago movie coming up that will give a boost...although it won't be for another couple years....
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    SumoLego said:
    That's one of the enjoyable things about collecting. If we were talking about a 'complete' set, collectors can argue about what counts and what doesn't. I'd consider TRU builds and publicly available in-store promotions as necessary to have a complete set. Makes the chase more difficult...
    Yeah, there are many permutations. For me, it is whether it has a lego set number. If not, then it doesn't count as a set.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ReesesPieces said:
    I'm also thinking about how there is a ninjago movie coming up that will give a boost...although it won't be for another couple years....
    That will be interesting. Unfortunately, I think the true spike comes when the first wave of "Ninjago kids" are grown up, in their 20s, and have cash to spend.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I really, really wouldn't get my hopes up for 1) this adhd generation having any nostalgia for their old toys and 2) them ever having much money to spend on said toys if they do.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,178
    My Haunted House pile is looking even better after seeing this: image
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    FC will you be selling any of your HH this year? It is looking like a $500 shipped set this October. Think I may hold my stash this year and see where we are at in 2016.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 1,178
    I will most likely sell half of them, then in 2016 sell half again, and so on.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,021
    I'll be sending over my 32 kids...
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,021
    @CCC - I don't think the Dr. Wu polybag has a set number.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    SumoLego said:
    @CCC - I don't think the Dr. Wu polybag has a set number.
    Most polybags do, often on the back for promos (eg #5000063, #5000202, #5000022, #2853835 etc)
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    I missed the Haunted House without meaning to. Still want it, but will probably never get it. I had the money for it but other things that needed my attention like my car and what not were taking up my time and then it just slipped through the cracks before I had a chance to order it.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,979
    edited June 2015
    pharmjod said:
    I really, really wouldn't get my hopes up for 1) this adhd generation having any nostalgia for their old toys and 2) them ever having much money to spend on said toys if they do.

    I quite disagree, not only because I myself have ADHD and have plenty of nostalgia for my old toys (the term "ADHD generation" is kind of offensive to boot), but also because we're seeing interests traditionally associated with childhood becoming more and more acceptable for adults, and I expect that trend to continue. Being an AFOL is already a lot more mainstream than it used to be, and I see no reason why it would become LESS mainstream in the years to come.

    The only way I see this posing a big risk to resellers in the long run is if more and more kids, deprived of the stigma against adults playing with LEGO, do not go through a "dark age" at all and choose to hold onto their childhood LEGO sets. People in that category (which I would fall into) would not need to "buy back" their childhood because they would have held onto it.

    We're not at that point on a wide scale yet, though, especially since a lot of the kids who are becoming adults are not in the financial situation to reject reselling childhood toys as a potential source of income (or as a way to free up valuable space for other interests). Just within the BIONICLE fan community I've already seen a lot of people letting go of their old collections, and likewise a lot of people trying to either buy back sets they've parted with or buy sets they missed out on in the first place.

    Rsa33Amanda1983
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    edited June 2015
    Aanchir said:

    We're not at that point on a wide scale yet, though, especially since a lot of the kids who are becoming adults are not in the financial situation to reject reselling childhood toys as a potential source of income (or as a way to free up valuable space for other interests). Just within the BIONICLE fan community I've already seen a lot of people letting go of their old collections, and likewise a lot of people trying to either buy back sets they've parted with or buy sets they missed out on in the first place.

    So resellers need an increase in college fees, meaning kids have to sell their lego to afford it. Then they'll need to buy it back again later on in life.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    I think the point @pharmjod may have been trying to make is that the current generation of kids never sticks with any one thing long enough to form the type of deeper emotional attachment to it that we all are so accustomed to. I see this with my own children. Everything is quickly passed by so they can move on to the next thing. cycles of change in everything (media, entertainment, toys, products, technologies - everything) occur so rapidly now compared to even a decade ago. Essentially everything is a fad. If being a KFOL never "sticks" long enough for a large number of children, then there is no nostalgia to come back to as an adult. There are always exceptions case by case of course
    pharmjod
  • leetshoeleetshoe USAMember Posts: 255
    doriansdad said:
    Ah yes Halloween time in the USA. Very fun! I have not been interested in the CMF line for many years but I will buy a few cases of these to hand out with candy this year.
    wow that's a great idea. Wish these were around when l was a kid
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^More LEGO for me to buy when they want to dump their collection. As a craigslist troller, I've bought many a collection where the kid is selling his LEGO collection to upgrade from the iPhone 2 to 3. I drive out and meet up with him, asking three times if he's sure he wants to sell it, because he is going to regret it someday. When he has kids of his own, he'll be kicking himself. But every damn time, they just want the cash and are only thinking about right now.
    Pitfall69Rsa33Final_SignFollowsCloselydougtsMatthewsnowhitieAmanda1983
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    edited June 2015
    @dougts yes. That and I truly believe we are witnessing a generation that will not be able to even come close to the "success" or financial stability of their parents. This is concerning as a parent of a 3 y/o and soon to be newborn. I simply do not expect kids today to have the resources to throw big bucks at old toys. I also think LEGO itself is in a fad period. It may last a few more years, but I am doubtful it can keep this momentum. Almost no Lego toy currently available or available in the last 20 - 30 years is actually "rare" when compared to other rare collectibles. I really would not be holding onto most Lego sets for 10-20 years as an investment.
    TXLegoguyRsa33TheLoneTensor
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    pharmjod said:
    I really, really wouldn't get my hopes up for 1) this adhd generation having any nostalgia for their old toys and 2) them ever having much money to spend on said toys if they do.
    I agree in general, but Lego sets and minifigs are one thing our kids are definitely still keen on. In fact being a nostalgic person myself, I (unconsciously) pushed them in this direction as well when I made it known that I purchased each of them a pristine MISB copy of the first Lego set each of them ever had. Fortunately, we started them out small so none of them received a UCS MF for their starter set.
  • DawnDawn GoldMember Posts: 247
    I am astonished as the education system that let kids go from grade to grade even if they don't met the minimum education standard. I have witness a girl graduating from high school, but can't read. During standardized tests, she was brought down the office where someone will read her the questions (and give her the answers, so the teachers can get their bonus). It is all screwed up, while I didn't go to school in the US, where & when I grew up it was frequent for kids to redo a grade (or two) and there was nothing wrong with that but now it also barely happen there either. They want just people to move on regardless of their skills. In my daughter's class (7th grade), kids with only Ds and Fs are going to the next grade. While she is in the public school system, she gets most of her education at home while school is more or less a day care. While it is not Oscar worthy, watch Idiocracy it might really be an insight if things continue that way.
    TXLegoguyFinal_SignBrickDancer
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,979
    dougts said:
    I think the point @pharmjod may have been trying to make is that the current generation of kids never sticks with any one thing long enough to form the type of deeper emotional attachment to it that we all are so accustomed to. I see this with my own children. Everything is quickly passed by so they can move on to the next thing. cycles of change in everything (media, entertainment, toys, products, technologies - everything) occur so rapidly now compared to even a decade ago. Essentially everything is a fad. If being a KFOL never "sticks" long enough for a large number of children, then there is no nostalgia to come back to as an adult. There are always exceptions case by case of course

    Even when I was a kid, though, I was a bit like that, jumping from one interest to another and always being interested in what's current. I loved themes like Aquazone and Ninja at their launch, then didn't really care enough to buy more than one set from each subsequent wave. Still, that didn't stop some of those themes from continuing to resonate with me even after I'd moved on from them. It's not just about how long you enjoy something, it's about how passionately you enjoy it, how deeply you immerse yourself in it, etc.

    The LEGO Group of course knows that kids are always interested in something new, and that's a big part of why they introduce new themes on a regular basis, and try to keep their long-term themes fresh with new storylines, settings, and gimmicks. So I don't think there's too much worry about kids being in a huge rush to move on from LEGO entirely — not so long as there's always some LEGO toy that's new and different than what they just moved on from. If kids were aging out of LEGO much more quickly than they used to I doubt the LEGO Group would be doing so well financially!

    I will admit that I was probably not a "normal" kid even for when I grew up. Growing up, it felt to me like all my friends were jumping from one interest to another too quickly for me to keep track of! And I don't have the most firsthand experience with younger generations. But I think that even though an outside observer can easily assume a kid isn't really interested in something when they move on from it in a year or so, you never know which of those things they will continue to remember fondly ten years later.

    Amanda1983
  • Final_SignFinal_Sign KentuckyMember Posts: 101
    ^^ @Dawn I'm becoming convinced that movie is actually a documentary from the future.
    BrickDancerDawn
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,307
    Stuff doesn't have to be rare to be valuable. So long as demand is higher than supply it is good for anyone wanting to sell.
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