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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,716
    edited June 2015
    ^^ no, the point is you don't have complete control of both when you sell and the sale price. The market determines the price at any particular point in time. If you want to make a sale you cannot deviate much from that. You can decide to sell after X months and sell at the going rate. Of course you can wait longer, but that is not you determining the sale price, you are just riding along with the rest. In this case you decide to sell for $Y but wait an unknown time before it sells. If it never reaches $Y it is a write off.

    It's the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in the reselling world.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I have a hard time trying to figure out what I have bought and sold. I still have sets still in shipping boxes. It is like Schrodinger's Lego set. Did I buy and sell that set or didn't  I? ;)
    prevere
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,909
    ^ Only if its a case of Series 10 CMFs.
  • bp10030bp10030 europeMember Posts: 102
    Hardrada said:
    To be honest from the European perspective IS doesn't seem such an outstanding investment. Over here (Hungary) its regular price was about 350 USD and the cheapest you could get it was about 300 USD. I don't see that doubling soon enough. Some of the smaller / cheaper sets (like Maersk Train, DA, Shuttle, WVB, QAR, maybe MMV) which have more room to rise in value seem to be safer / better bets for me.
    Now it's time to take cash back.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    My "buy in" for the IS was $209 USD except for the last one I bought from Amazon (for myself) at full RRP during the infamous Imperial Shuttle Countdown. Even at $260, I have already doubled my money.
    FollowsClosely
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    The IS is what I consider a Blue Chip bet. It's guaranteed to rise to a very high max value, but will be a slow and gradual climb due to the high RRP price plus extensive reseller inventory. But zero risk as a good investment other than rate of return in terms of time being an issue.
    TheLoneTensorLegoboydougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited June 2015
    I also haven't seen a negative effect on prices because of the new Shuttle Tydirium.
    FollowsClosely
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,366
    My May 2nd Red 5 order finally shipped today. Local store had some in stock yesterday as well. Looks like it isn't quite dead yet.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited June 2015
    CCC said:
    ^^ no, the point is you don't have complete control of both when you sell and the sale price. The market determines the price at any particular point in time. If you want to make a sale you cannot deviate much from that. You can decide to sell after X months and sell at the going rate. Of course you can wait longer, but that is not you determining the sale price, you are just riding along with the rest. In this case you decide to sell for $Y but wait an unknown time before it sells. If it never reaches $Y it is a write off.

    It's the Heisenberg uncertainty principle in the reselling world.
    Hey, you need to stop trying to find your "x".      "y"? Because she ain't coming back ;)
    VorpalRyu
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711

    prevere said:
    Trying to figure out when the Mixer will EOL. Thinking that maybe it'll be Apr/May 2016 as they launch another Fun Fair set. Just like Winter Village but with the months flipped around?
    Im still holding to the idea of it being gone EOL. I still think that the Ferris Wheel, while not a spot on replacement in many peoples minds, will be one to go at end of year.

    Pitfall69 said:
    I also haven't seen a negative effect on prices because of the new Shuttle Tydirium.

    Well do you see no effect on asking price, or selling price? As you know those are two different things. I do not see much growth on UCS Sandcrawler and Ewok village for SW? Why, because people I think want the Sandcrawler for Jawas (would be surprised if there are none in the new movies, and by extension, their sets).
    With Ewok village I see the same thing. not a lot of new figures I believe in that set, at least worth it enough to pay huge amounts for it. One battle of endor type set will cause prices to at least stagnate for these sets I think, but that is just my opinion.
    Will they go up? Likely only because demand will likely outweigh supply but not sure if you want to run up a tab buying these to find out.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 906
    Why would the ferris wheel which has only just come out, be gone at the end of the year?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    stevemack said:
    Why would the ferris wheel which has only just come out, be gone at the end of the year?
    Meant the Mixer, not Ferris wheel. This kind of typo occurs when you are trying to also watch the Stanley Cup Final
  • Coolguy5000Coolguy5000 Ireland Member Posts: 1,535
    I have  been  given  the opportunity  to  buy lego #76035 jokerland  for 60 euro new and  sealed.  Any thoughts  on  this  set? Is that a good price? Should  I  hold onto  it  for resale?
    I wouldn't  mind  having  the set. And finally  do you  think  the  minifigures  value  will increase ?
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    It's a good deal but very early to buy for investment purposes.  Money may be better spent in the interim to turn over other sets?  If you want it for yourself then I would probably buy it anyway.
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    According to brickset, RRP of #76035 is $100 euro.  A 40% discount is rarely seen until the set goes on clearance at end-of-life.  So very few people will have a better buy-in price for quite some time.  

    Seems there is plenty of opportunity to buy and resell for modest profit immediately.

    Without giving it much thought, I would expect minifigures to follow the typical trajectory of licensed characters.  The price starts very high before official release, continuously drops while the set is in production to some steady value, and then possibly slowly increases after set is discontinued.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    I have  been  given  the opportunity  to  buy lego #76035 jokerland  for 60 euro new and  sealed.  Any thoughts  on  this  set? Is that a good price? Should  I  hold onto  it  for resale?
    I wouldn't  mind  having  the set. And finally  do you  think  the  minifigures  value  will increase ?
    I did not realize this set was also out now in UK/Europe.
    So, is this from a store or someone selling it personally? I would be leery of buying new sets that can be had from LEGO directly, or stores, from individuals. Too many things can happen.
    Also ensure it is new and sealed and not 'I took all the figures out and am only selling a 'new' set of parts'.

    Hate to be so cynical as Im sure good deals can still occur, but always leery of something being too good to be true, especially with LEGO as of late.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,716
    I'm not so sure how well Jokerland will do in terms of minifigs. Joker is cheap these days, Penguin too, and rehashes or duplicates of many others. I cannot really see any value parting the set to flip the figures at RRP or even at 25% discount.
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,651
    My dad got a £30 voucher off £60 on Very.co.uk and he don't need it. I've wanted these two sets since they were released so I got to decide between #70815 Super Secret Police Dropship and #75052 Mos Eisley Cantina. I have until the end of July so which one would you get first judging on which one would be discontinued first. I do plan to get both if either one is on sale. Currently #70815 is £48 on Amazon and #75052 is £52 at Tesco and Amazon. I'm guessing most people would go with the Cantina due to the very popular licence and high demand, then again Star Wars sets stay longer than any other themes.

    Any suggestions on which one will stay around longer?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    CCC said:
    I'm not so sure how well Jokerland will do in terms of minifigs. Joker is cheap these days, Penguin too, and rehashes or duplicates of many others. I cannot really see any value parting the set to flip the figures at RRP or even at 25% discount.
    Some Teen Titans are in it, so there will be a demand for a few of the figures, but Joker is a character that will be in many sets (and will soon be had in a 3.99 USD polybag). My guess is the titans will eventually be in other sets as well though. Harley is different than the one from #6857 and may be wanted by completion-ists as I'm not sure if this version of Harley is a 'standard' portrayal of her.
    LEGO has done a good job (or bad job depending on if you are a reseller) in repeating Superhero and SW characters in newer, and sometimes cheaper, sets than they came in before.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    Adzbadboy said:
    Any suggestions on which one will stay around longer?
    My guess is the cantina.
    madforLEGOReesesPiecesAdeelZubair
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited June 2015
    Jokerland has a dynamic duo funhouse investment feel, just at a higher price. In other words, it's a trap!
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    ^I don't know... The Funhouse was much more affordable while coming with a lot of desirable minifigures. It actually appears to me that the Jokerland might increase the resale value of the Funhouse for those who want a large Joker-themed playset. These two sets are very complementary, and I think it's a good thing for those sitting on Funhouse sets.

    JMO...
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 299
    I can get the #60062 Arctic Icebreaker for $87.  I know its city, but is a little unique.  What do you guys think about aftermarket on this given the current prices of #60064?
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    3stackshs said:
    I can get the #60062 Arctic Icebreaker for $87.  I know its city, but is a little unique.  What do you guys think about aftermarket on this given the current prices of #60064?
    $87 is a good price but there's one caveat. It's an exclusive for TRU and they've been known to keep a set in stock for many years. There won't be any surprise retirement for this one, which is the only reason why the plane is appreciating nicely. 
    3stackshs
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    ^I don't know... The Funhouse was much more affordable while coming with a lot of desirable minifigures. It actually appears to me that the Jokerland might increase the resale value of the Funhouse for those who want a large Joker-themed playset. These two sets are very complementary, and I think it's a good thing for those sitting on Funhouse sets.

    JMO...
    I agree the Funhouse will get a bump. My point is that Jokerland is no Arkham Asylum, and unless bought with a 30% discount, it doesn't look like a good investment. Funhouse may finally pay off for those patient enough to wait for it.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    ^ Hope your right. I got a pile of them and I havent moved a single one.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    I remember someone posted a pic of oh say 100 of those.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    3stackshs said:
    I can get the #60062 Arctic Icebreaker for $87.  I know its city, but is a little unique.  What do you guys think about aftermarket on this given the current prices of #60064?
    $87 is a good price but there's one caveat. It's an exclusive for TRU and they've been known to keep a set in stock for many years. There won't be any surprise retirement for this one, which is the only reason why the plane is appreciating nicely. 
    That was until last year where Town Square was gone relatively fast compared to previous years. I think TRU may be learning a bit on the exclusives. I would say if you find the Icebreaker for 80-90 USD it is a good deal, but I would not be grabbing loads of them as like any other sub-theme I'm not sure it will do gangbusters once EOL, discounted or not.
    3stackshs
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Pitfall69 said:
    How are all those discounted Altlantis and Galaxy Squad sets working for everyone? 
    Don't forget Cars 2 sets :)

    I got quit a few #8639 & #8679 at 75% off. I didn't really hold onto them long (quick flip), but it was longer then I wanted too. I only managed around $25-$35 profit each after fees and shipping.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Fortunately, I didn't get that many Car sets. For some reason they just seemed so "Duplo" to me...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I passed on all Galaxy Squad, PoP, Toy Story, Atlantis and Pharoah's Quest sets as investments. I haven't invested in any TLM sets at the moment, but I do not think I will. 
    FollowsClosely
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Pop at least was good for part-out.  Lots of tan and dark tan.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,866
    ^Fortunately, I didn't get that many Car sets. For some reason they just seemed so "Duplo" to me...
    The Cars sets weren't too bad in my eyes (My younger brother had one). Even with all their rounded parts, most of the cars were way more interesting builds than most of the 4-wide cars I grew up with in the 90s. However, I can see why they didn't rise too much in value in the aftermarket. Since they don't include any minifigures and the universe they inhabit doesn't include any people, it doesn't give AFOLs too many opportunities to use them in conjunction with their other sets and figures except as a display gag.
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,160
    I don't think it helped that Cars 2 was terrible compared to the first one.

    Regarding sets for The Lego Movie, I think they could make good investment options if you can get them at a discount, but would have to sit on them until marketing for the next movie gears up. At that point interest will renew in the first movie sets, and the price should go up. This is by no means a guarantee. I noticed that most of the 2-in-1 sets can be had for MSRP off ebay still, so they could also dip a little and then have a slight bump from the new movie, but not enough to make any decent profit. 

    Again, I do no investing, so I'm just taking guesses from what I've seen happen. 
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    edited June 2015
    I'd love to see the Cars molds used for a NASCAR speedway.
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    It's been mentioned /tapped lightly , the metal beard duel, I believe has better potential than most of the sub $70 sets. He is a major character , he has been done incredibly well... And is the only way to get him cheap.. I suspect not a big majority have bought the ship , so to complete the main line up, this set is it . The micro manager is not too shabby either . I think you get one unique fig .

    Also, I might be wrong but it takes a good 250 pieces to build him , would TLG be doing another iteration of this in the next movie wave , that's a question .

    having said that , i don't think any of the movie line up will be shattering any records by a stretch, nor the ship and not even the spaceship... Which ought to do better than the rest easily.

    lets not forget , it was the peoples Uno número choice 2014.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    Seventeen days into June the Winter Soldier polybag set #5002943 is still being added to [email protected] orders; however, I've noticed that sales for this set on eBay and BrickLink are still above the $15 mark. I believe this set's bubble will burst (especially if it makes it to the end of the month) because there's just too many out there and too many people selling them. My target low price is sub-$10 due to the available quantity and the fact that TLG hasn't run out. No way I would pick up any spares for more than $10 shipped.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^It won't though. We in the States are now acting as a distribution hub to the rest of the world for Winter Soldiers. Do you think Europe and Asia's hunger pains for Bucky will be satiated easily and quickly? Nay I say! Once the month is over, he'll quickly climb over $20 mark and gradually move up from there with I'm guessing a plateau at $25-$30.
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited June 2015


    Seventeen days into June the Winter Soldier polybag set #5002943 is still being added to [email protected] orders; however, I've noticed that sales for this set on eBay and BrickLink are still above the $15 mark. I believe this set's bubble will burst (especially if it makes it to the end of the month) because there's just too many out there and too many people selling them. My target low price is sub-$10 due to the available quantity and the fact that TLG hasn't run out. No way I would pick up any spares for more than $10 shipped.
    I think it will likely burst if he is put into a set, but if not then he will likely go up.
    The only other thing will be if he is re-promo-ed at another time. If not, and he is not in a set, he will likely rise in price.
    He is a somewhat major character and it is likely completionists will want him.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    While I can see him eventually going higher than $20, TLG is currently flooding the market in the USA. Additionally, there are well over 100 listing on each of the eBay and BrickLink sites. It's been dropping $0.50 or more a day on eBay lately. Definitely an interesting minifig, but the market saturation by TLG and abundance of resellers are going to dampen down the value for awhile. We shall see I guess...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Forgot to add, here's the sales chart since the Winter Soldier was released in Europe as a freebee with the SHIELD Helicarrier set. Due to the extreme cost of the Helicarrier, I'm sure the numbers of this polybag were very limited. The BrickSet database now shows that 1128 members own the set while 941 still want the set. There are probably more BrickSet members that own the set and less that want it due to the latency of people to update their status (in fact, I need to update mine as well. ;) ).

    You can see in the graph that the price was pretty stable for the set when it was only available in Europe because (as was said) the European sales sustained the world demand. Now that it's available in North America as well, the drop has been precipitous. Perhaps it only edges down to $10-13, but I think that a supply that's increasing daily and competition among sellers will start force prices down even more (as is already happening). I do like the minifigure; just trying to take my emotion out of it and look at it as a widget.


  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    Forgot to add, here's the sales chart since the Winter Soldier was released in Europe as a freebee with the SHIELD Helicarrier set. Due to the extreme cost of the Helicarrier, I'm sure the numbers of this polybag were very limited. The BrickSet database now shows that 1128 members own the set while 941 still want the set. There are probably more BrickSet members that own the set and less that want it due to the latency of people to update their status (in fact, I need to update mine as well. ;) ).

    You can see in the graph that the price was pretty stable for the set when it was only available in Europe because (as was said) the European sales sustained the world demand. Now that it's available in North America as well, the drop has been precipitous. Perhaps it only edges down to $10-13, but I think that a supply that's increasing daily and competition among sellers will start force prices down even more (as is already happening). I do like the minifigure; just trying to take my emotion out of it and look at it as a widget.


    Was it down due to the lack of demand, or the expected release of 'cheaper' Winter Soldiers due from the US?
    Graphs and data are all great, but interpretations can be subjective.

  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    edited June 2015
    If he ends up in a future set, which is pretty likely since he'll be in the Civil War movie, the prices will tank. As for now, I don't think that Lego is flooding the market for Winter Soldier per se. There's just a lot more supply than there used to be since he was previously only available in the UK with a SHIELD Helicarrier purchase. Prices will eventually stabilize and then they will start going up. I think he'll be back up to $20 in a couple of months. I truly doubt that a $10 Winter Soldier will happen until there's a reprint.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,866
    Vortex said:
    It's been mentioned /tapped lightly , the metal beard duel, I believe has better potential than most of the sub $70 sets. He is a major character , he has been done incredibly well... And is the only way to get him cheap.. I suspect not a big majority have bought the ship , so to complete the main line up, this set is it . The micro manager is not too shabby either . I think you get one unique fig .

    Also, I might be wrong but it takes a good 250 pieces to build him , would TLG be doing another iteration of this in the next movie wave , that's a question .

    having said that , i don't think any of the movie line up will be shattering any records by a stretch, nor the ship and not even the spaceship... Which ought to do better than the rest easily.

    lets not forget , it was the peoples Uno número choice 2014.
    Very good observation. The Metalbeard's Duel set also has a more movie-accurate version of Metalbeard than the ship anyway, so it has that working in its favor.

    I have a feeling that when they do another LEGO movie they might introduce a new, redesigned Metalbeard ("Metalbeard 2.0", so to speak) so that whatever new set they put him in doesn't feel like a rehash. This is common practice for LEGO; just compare the various character redesigns in Hero Factory and BIONICLE, or even the redesigned version of Destiny's Bounty in this year's Ninjago sets. When you're dealing with a mechanical character or prop, coming up with an excuse for a redesign is no trouble at all.

    Granted, redesigning the subject wasn't a concern with the Double Decker Couch set (which is largely unchanged from the couch as it appeared in the Sea Cow and Emmet's car as it appeared in the Toys 'R' Us building event), but neither the couch nor the car is nearly as big or building-intensive. as Metalbeard.

    A new version of Metalbeard in the LEGO Movie sequel might put a slight dent in the demand for the old one, since the old one would no longer be "current", but not so much as if it the LEGO Group released a new Metalbeard that was almost entirely identical to his original appearance.

    As long as the redesign is substantial enough to be noticed at a glance and is actually written into the story, a lot of collectors will still be interested in the old version. People might not be interested in having multiple versions of the X-Wing Starfighter that represent the same vehicle from the same scenes, but few people will lose interest in Endor Luke just because they already have a minifigure of Tatooine Luke.
    Vortex
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Even if they release a new Winter Soldier for Civil War, chances are that he will be slightly different. If so, prices for this current version will not tank or be greatly affected. Just check out the old Tan-pants Hulk, it's sitting at $30 for the cheapest 'new' one in the US while the recent Ultron version is well under $10. Same across the Star Wars line too.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404


    Was it down due to the lack of demand, or the expected release of 'cheaper' Winter Soldiers due from the US?
    Graphs and data are all great, but interpretations can be subjective.

    Agreed...but this graph is of the actual sales prices on BrickLink. That is hard data in my book, and I tend not to argue with those. And the prices on eBay now are even lower than the graph shows. I can easily pick one up for $16 with free shipping and just saw a listing for $15.50 with free shipping. Again, we'll see where the prices land in another couple weeks. I expect lower as is the trend...
    pharmjod
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,866
    ^Even if they release a new Winter Soldier for Civil War, chances are that he will be slightly different. If so, prices for this current version will not tank or be greatly affected. Just check out the old Tan-pants Hulk, it's sitting at $30 for the cheapest 'new' one in the US while the recent Ultron version is well under $10. Same across the Star Wars line too.
    Yeah, I know what you mean. My brother was astonished to see how much more the old Jabba the Hutt goes for in the aftermarket than the new one, despite the new one by most measures being a lot better. The new Jabba certainly isn't flawless, but as with many of my Star Wars sets and minifigures, I'd much rather own the new version than the old one from my days as a Star Wars collector!
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    Another reason old figs may hold value. People may be trying to be completing a set.
    SumoLego
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^That actually does apply to me, specifically this week I finally completed the 'Flesh' era of Star Wars figs (essentially sw081-sw256). There were quite a few pricey figs in this series, which was surprising considering they have newer versions available in the current 'Color' era.
    Farmer_Johnsnowhitie
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    ^I love it when a collection is completed! I haven't put together a collection nearly as large as your SW collection, but it was fun recently completing the Toy Story and Guardian of the Galaxy minifigs for my display. LotR, Hobbit or SW (as you did) would be really special, albeit expensive!
    BrickDancer
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