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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^I can just see my wife walking into the basement and seeing 100 of ANY set. She wouldn't say a word, only packing the kids in the car and leaving skid marks in the driveway.
    juggles7Rainstorm26SumoLegocharlatan13GoldchainsAdeelZubair
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,825
    Not before backing through the garage door and into the boxes just delivered.  ;)
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
      If I solely trusted my feelings, I'd be sitting on a huge pile of Lone Ranger trains.
      Yep, no ones decisions are correct all the time, funny you should mention that Train set as i have quite a few of them and quite happy with them. Are they not doing well in the US yet?



  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    If you bought it for $50, you're doing ok.
    pharmjod
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I have 10 at $50. Trying to decide if they are worth holding onto or just moving to reinvest. I anticipate we might see some of the big Star Wars sets (AT-AT and ISD) on clearance at Wal-Mart and other places as the new movie sets really start to roll out.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    ^If it goes the route of the TS "western" train, then sell now. That set was also available for $50 widespread and is just now hitting $150, years later. Frankly, the best value is parted-out.

    bluedragon
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    pharmjod said:
    I have 10 at $50. Trying to decide if they are worth holding onto or just moving to reinvest. I anticipate we might see some of the big Star Wars sets (AT-AT and ISD) on clearance at Wal-Mart and other places as the new movie sets really start to roll out.
    Yeah, it's a strange one, but having a quick look on ebay US possibly 180 Dollars is possible next year at some point i would imagine. Good luck whatever you decide on.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    It's not strange to me. Licensed theme trains are just not a good idea (Thomas excluded). Those willing to pay big money for trains, want a really good one, not something with goofy characters.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I realize the TS western train is about the only comparison but it still seems like a poor comparison. The Constitution Train is a pretty good train. The Western train was really fragile and had a very "toy" vibe to it. Regardless, I will probably be selling them off in the coming months.
    ReesesPieces
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    No i meant a strange one as in to sell shortly or keep them for another year. I think i'll keep them and see what happens.
    juggles7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    @pharmjod If you have 10 at $50, you did well if indeed it hits $180. I would look at the % increase in price though. If it is not doing better than other sets that you could be investing in now, it is time to sell and reinvest. 
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    Would it be strange to invest in TH? The price has leveled off some since the initial increase, but it is moving at quite a decent clip. If it keeps up that pace until Christmas, you are looking at an $840+set. If you can grab one for $500 now, you could walk away with $200 net profit in 6 months. 
    madforLEGO
  • bluedragonbluedragon PortugalMember Posts: 506
    A used Grand Carousel could be had for $800 2 years ago. Look where it's at now buoyed by the funfair theme. ROI of 50%/year was possible. Always a bit difficult to make that kind of investment  though.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    It looks like the Constitution Chase is holding at roughly $100-$109 shipped. It has been that way just about since it retired. I guess it is going to take burning through all the cheap stock to see what happens. I'd be thrilled to double my money though which would put it at $130 but I don't know when that will be. Maybe Christmas this year?

    It seems like there is money to be made buying retired sets even at a premium. It makes me nervous though. It starts to be too much like the stock market :)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    rocao said:
    If someone would have taken me up on my o/u $500 bet for Town Hall by Fall 2015, I'd be mailing them a Town Hall.
    What was that bet again in detail? 
    Not sure, but thought I could finagle a free TH out of the deal. @rocao is obviously too smart my scheming though...
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    Wow...just looked at the new Lego Space Shuttle set review #60080. The review was great, but the price point is astronomical (pardon the pun) at $120. You could have picked up #10213 or #10231 for under $80 from Amazon once upon a time, and I think those were awesome sets (perhaps the best Shuttle sets TLG has produced to date).

    Definitely planning to leave the truck in the garage (no backing it up on this one)...
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    A used Grand Carousel could be had for $800 2 years ago. Look where it's at now buoyed by the funfair theme. ROI of 50%/year was possible. Always a bit difficult to make that kind of investment  though.
    A sealed one recently sold for $3k. Kinda thinking that type of demand will fuel the Mixer.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^Maybe, but the Ferris Wheel is head and shoulders above The Mixer. If anything, the Ferris Wheel is fueling demand for the Grand Carousel. 
    Farmer_Johnbluedragon
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    doriansdad said:
    dougts said:
    22% is the new 28%
    Nah 30% is the new 27%  ;)
    Funny you mention 30%, as if @edgarallanpoe14 was a little more on the ball ;) he should be getting the PC for 30% off, not just 22%. Brings the price down to $140AUD ($106.74USD). 

    That said if he was really keen and put the work in 38% is actually possible, then add CC rewards on top.

    The big issue is stock levels, as we struggle to get good size shipments of the bigger exclusives in Australia. The store in question sold out online in about an hour at midnight last night/this morning and when stores open at 9am this morning most stores will sell out almost instantly.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,646
    edited June 2015
    I would be hard pressed to think that PS will stick around another year. Time will tell but I see no reason for PS to linger through '16.
    As for LEGO's reported 'we will run a mod as an exclusive to only LEGO for a year'. Well I am of belief that this was started late last year in the US with PS, and PC is right behind it. Think about it, how many retailers outside of LEGO have been selling the PS lately (that is have it in stock)? Not many if any that I have noticed. Walmart and Target have them on their sites but they always seem to show 'out of stock', and it has been like that since last fall at least if memory serves me correctly. (unless there is also a massive amount of resellers that constantly are buying out whatever stocks appear, which seems unlikely). Amazon has not sold it in forever, with only 3rd party sellers selling it. Actually I think the only mods you can get via Amazon (US)  itself (not via 3rd parties) are the PR and now the DO.
    Now I think with the DS that LEGO has proven people wrong again and again, so time will tell but I think PS is gone in the late fall/ early winter/ early spring 16 at latest (on par with the timelines for other EOL mod sets).

    Wow...just looked at the new Lego Space Shuttle set review #60080. The review was great, but the price point is astronomical (pardon the pun) at $120. You could have picked up #10213 or #10231 for under $80 from Amazon once upon a time, and I think those were awesome sets (perhaps the best Shuttle sets TLG has produced to date).

    Definitely planning to leave the truck in the garage (no backing it up on this one)...
    If you think that is obnoxious try #60097 Town Square being 189.99 USD. Love the set, but the price is just silly. Will be waiting to see that one in a BOGO40 or 50 somewhere
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    ^I love the City Square as well, but that RRP is crazy. Is this set only available at TRU snd [email protected]?
    TXLegoguy
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Walmart and Target have them on their sites but they always seem to show 'out of stock', and it has been like that since last fall at least if memory serves me correctly. (unless there is also a massive amount of resellers that constantly are buying out whatever stocks appear, which seems unlikely). 
    Target and TRU get shipments of PS every 2 weeks or so but they are sold out within 3-5 mins. Lots of resellers use scripts to scoop them. Hopefully the recent Target bans will make it easier next time. 
    pharmjod
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFW/BGMember Posts: 7,429
    edited June 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^I love the City Square as well, but that RRP is crazy. Is this set only available at TRU snd [email protected]?
    I think that is correct. I was thinking of parting it out in chunks and just keeping the coffee section and the Lego store which I really want. Looking at it and sticking a reasonable or even a marked up RRP on each segment and it is really difficult to reach $190. At least in the past sets of this size seemed to give a better price per piece ratio than smaller sets. Modulars seem like a screaming deal compared to this. The DO costs $30 less and has over 2000 parts.
    Pitfall69
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,431
    So, Town Hall didn't do well because of the $200 price point and the City Square is $190? That's not good. Next modular building will be $200 and not even be close to the size of the Town Hall.

    Still think the resellers don't affect the Lego Market and pricing?
    TXLegoguy
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    It can't escalate indefinitely. There will be a point when the public stop buying sets that are too expensive for what they are. We just don't know what that point is yet. I personally think we are nearing it.
    Farmer_JohnPitfall69TXLegoguy
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    ^First TLG killed of discounts on exclusive sets. Now they are ramping up the RRPs. I think those calling resellers greedy might want to take a closer look at sellers in Billund too.
    pharmjodjuggles7Pitfall69madforLEGOTheLoneTensordougtsRainstorm26cloaked7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    The whole reseller thing is difficult to ascertain. There are people that resell Lego to help pay for the hobby they love. There are people who resell Lego to make ends meet or to afford a vacation that they desperately want. There are people that are in between jobs and are doing it to support the family. There are people that are in the reaelling game for the long haul and are making enough to quit their job that they hate or just want to be self employed. There are many reasons why people resell Lego. I doubt most resellers are greedy. I personally have NEVER cleaned out a store shelf, but who am I to judge people who do? 
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,937
    edited June 2015
    It's difficult to pinpoint because it's of all those, plus a few more: those that skirt imposed limits, those that ignore tax laws, etc.

    Also, reaelling :)
  • BoomDiggityBoomDiggity Member Posts: 107
    I am at an odd internal debate...

    I was able to get a Death Star 10188 for $225 and am trying to decide if I want to part with it.  Should I try to trade it for a couple a retiring sets?  Should I hold onto it and see how well it does when it retires (if it ever retires...I swear I will be 90 when that thing is gone)?
  • exciter1exciter1 Member Posts: 226
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^I love the City Square as well, but that RRP is crazy. Is this set only available at TRU snd [email protected]?
    I think that is correct. I was thinking of parting it out in chunks and just keeping the coffee section and the Lego store which I really want. Looking at it and sticking a reasonable or even a marked up RRP on each segment and it is really difficult to reach $190. At least in the past sets of this size seemed to give a better price per piece ratio than smaller sets. Modulars seem like a screaming deal compared to this. The DO costs $30 less and has over 2000 parts.
    I wouldn't be surprised if we see the City Square discounted down to $125 or less during a flash sale or Black Friday at TRU.  Be patient, who expected $79 60026 - Town Squares on Black Friday?
    Pitfall69TXLegoguyRonyar
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,477
    So, Town Hall didn't do well because of the $200 price point and the City Square is $190? That's not good. Next modular building will be $200 and not even be close to the size of the Town Hall.

    Still think the resellers don't affect the Lego Market and pricing?
    Not as much as the buyers do. If the general population is buying $200 modulars in large quantities at retail direct through lego, then that will have more bearing on lego's financial decisions than the high price that a set that is five years past retirement and being sold in small numbers.

    SumoLego
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,431
    Or resellers buying 10 of a modular, instead of the normal 1 that a buyer would buy, and thus increasing sales numbers dramatically. Then all the resellers selling all of those sets for more and sometimes way more than Lego's retail price causes Lego to increase prices because... people are obviously willing to spend a lot more than retail price so Lego charges more because they can get away with it.
    CCC said:
    So, Town Hall didn't do well because of the $200 price point and the City Square is $190? That's not good. Next modular building will be $200 and not even be close to the size of the Town Hall.

    Still think the resellers don't affect the Lego Market and pricing?
    Not as much as the buyers do. If the general population is buying $200 modulars in large quantities at retail direct through lego, then that will have more bearing on lego's financial decisions than the high price that a set that is five years past retirement and being sold in small numbers.


  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    I think @Bosstone100 has a point. 

    In general, the buyers help set probably about 80-85% of the price, but resellers help drive prices as well. This can be done by their ability to reduce supply in the aftermarket, ie only selling one set at a time when they have a stack of them, and by what was pointed out where resellers tend to buy 10 of a particular set, which drives up Lego's sales numbers, and they use that fact to increase the price of sets because it shows them a high demand for the product.

    As I stated over in the Bat-Pod thread, that does NOT imply that sellers/resellers are evil. It's just the nature of a free market. 
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,382
    ^^ but this infers for every 10 sold to a reseller there is 1 to a normal buyer which is nonsense. 
    Resellers in general are thought to make up around 5% of Lego sales so your 10:1 becomes more like 1:19
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,477
    Or resellers buying 10 of a modular, instead of the normal 1 that a buyer would buy, and thus increasing sales numbers dramatically. Then all the resellers selling all of those sets for more and sometimes way more than Lego's retail price causes Lego to increase prices because... people are obviously willing to spend a lot more than retail price so Lego charges more because they can get away with it.

    People are willing to spend a lot more on some sets, but not all. It wouldn't surprise me if someone late to the party buys a modular, then decides they want the FB and are willing to pay more than RRP for it, say twice RRP. However, that doesn't mean that they would be willing to pay twice current RRPs for every modular that they will buy - they may not get into collecting them if the retail price was twice as high.

    The same could be applied to CMF. I sold a couple of bumble bees last month for £25 each. One way of looking at that is that the market can bear ten times retail price for CMFs. Another way is that some people can bear a high price for some past CMFs if they really want them, but not all CMFs that they will buy.

    pharmjodleego76juggles7dougts
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 20,477
    This can be done by their ability to reduce supply in the aftermarket, ie only selling one set at a time when they have a stack of them
    I doubt many resellers can do that these days, at least not normal retail sets that retired in the last two years. Sure they can make it appear that they have limited stock, but they cannot control others and that is part of the problem (for resellers) causing the slower rises in price. Many people are reselling small quantities these days, many of them trying to sell relatively fast.
    pharmjodBrickaholicjuggles7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    CCC said:
    Or resellers buying 10 of a modular, instead of the normal 1 that a buyer would buy, and thus increasing sales numbers dramatically. Then all the resellers selling all of those sets for more and sometimes way more than Lego's retail price causes Lego to increase prices because... people are obviously willing to spend a lot more than retail price so Lego charges more because they can get away with it.

    People are willing to spend a lot more on some sets, but not all. It wouldn't surprise me if someone late to the party buys a modular, then decides they want the FB and are willing to pay more than RRP for it, say twice RRP. However, that doesn't mean that they would be willing to pay twice current RRPs for every modular that they will buy - they may not get into collecting them if the retail price was twice as high.

    The same could be applied to CMF. I sold a couple of bumble bees last month for £25 each. One way of looking at that is that the market can bear ten times retail price for CMFs. Another way is that some people can bear a high price for some past CMFs if they really want them, but not all CMFs that they will buy.

    How much do you think I can get for my pile of Fitness Instructors? ;)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    Or resellers buying 10 of a modular, instead of the normal 1 that a buyer would buy, and thus increasing sales numbers dramatically. Then all the resellers selling all of those sets for more and sometimes way more than Lego's retail price causes Lego to increase prices because... people are obviously willing to spend a lot more than retail price so Lego charges more because they can get away with it.

    Based on LegoLand Fun Facts*, TLG produces roughly 19 billion elements yearly. Additionally, 7 Lego sets are estimated to be sold each second by retailers. That adds up to a whopping 221 million sets produced and sold each year by TLG. (Nota Bene: the average sized set that is sold by TLG consists of 86 pieces if my math is correct.)

    Given those mind-numbing numbers, the resale market is microscopically small compared to TLG's retail market. I just can't imagine the executives at TLG having sleepless nights over resellers, and from a business standpoint I would be surprised if TLG is basing their retail prices on a nearly insignificant portion of the total Lego sales.

    Just because resellers are getting higher prices for retired products doesn't mean that TLG will get the same prices for current products. If TLG is able to supply sets, then the demand will adjust accordingly. See also the sales life of the Exo-Suit #21109.

    *Numbers taken from 2009, so have likely dramatically increased from these.
    madforLEGOdougtsAmanda1983
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Resellers do account for alot of sales for the sets aimed at AFOLS. I can say with great confidence that any Red 5s, PS or PC being sold in the USA through any channel other than [email protected] or LBR are currently going to resellers. I can also say with great confidence that resellers do influence manufacturing decisions for the sets that they stockpile. TLG knows who is buying those sets and they will take steps to thwart them.
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    I wouldn't be surprised if resellers account for something like 25-35% of overall sales of the more expensive exclusive sets such as modulars. For the past two months, you can't buy a Palace Cinema or Pet Shop online if you're a normal customer. Resellers snap up any inventory at Target, Walmart and Amazon within minutes of them carrying stock.
    juggles7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    thBosstone100 said:
    Or resellers buying 10 of a modular, instead of the normal 1 that a buyer would buy, and thus increasing sales numbers dramatically. Then all the resellers selling all of those sets for more and sometimes way more than Lego's retail price causes Lego to increase prices because... people are obviously willing to spend a lot more than retail price so Lego charges more because they can get away with it.


    Wouldn't this eventually cause a paradox?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    People are only paying those prices because Lego doesn't produce the set anymore. This happens with every collectible. Lego is no different. Just because someone pays $500 for a Town Hall today, doesn't mean that they would have spent $500 for a Town Hall while it was still in production. 
    pharmjodFarmer_Johnjuggles7madforLEGOAanchirSethro3Amanda1983
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,454
    In my 3+ years in the forum, I have seen this a lot. Heck, I even did it once. I could have bought the Imperial Flagship the whole time it was out, I even had it in my bag when Lego was blowing them out for $139. I never pulled the trigger. I ended up buying one for $300 from a fellow Bricksetter. How stupid I felt. 
    FollowsCloselyRonyar
  • bluedragonbluedragon PortugalMember Posts: 506
    For me it was the Imperial Shuttle. I felt even more stupid (I'm sure) because I watched the countdown but did not buy then. I later paid $322 to another Bricksetter. D'oh!
    Ronyar
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited June 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    In my 3+ years in the forum, I have seen this a lot. Heck, I even did it once. I could have bought the Imperial Flagship the whole time it was out, I even had it in my bag when Lego was blowing them out for $139. I never pulled the trigger. I ended up buying one for $300 from a fellow Bricksetter. How stupid I felt. 
    I can say the same thing about a lot of sets, which is why I try to purchase a single copy if I think perhaps maybe possibly I'm interested. In fact, there are several Hobbit sets that I am currently grabbing a copy of before they disappear for good.

    I wouldn't be surprised if resellers account for something like 25-35% of overall sales of the more expensive exclusive sets such as modulars. For the past two months, you can't buy a Palace Cinema or Pet Shop online if you're a normal customer. Resellers snap up any inventory at Target, Walmart and Amazon within minutes of them carrying stock.
    Wow! I realize you're talking about modulars, but I think your percentage are off by at leat 10X. Resellers just don't make that big of an impact.

    Just for fun, if TLG sold 221 million sets in 2009 (and those number are probably up 2-4X now), resellers account for 55-77 million sets each year? And if TLG's production is growing at a conservative 10% per year (which is more than reasonable based on their earnings growth), they would be producing nearly 400 million sets each year as of 2015 (this is definitely on the low side). That would mean in today's numbers, resellers would account for 100-140 Million (with a capital 'M') sets each year.

    Now let's say that (again, conservatively) 30% of these sales are through eBay and 30% are through Amazon. If each company makes an average of $10 per set per sale, we're talking about a annual revenue stream from resellers alone of $500M-$700M each year for each company.

    Throw in the fact that @LegoFanTexas is out of the picture, and I'm not having any. :)


    pharmjodmadforLEGO
  • Bosstone100Bosstone100 USAMember Posts: 1,431
    @roxio - actually the numbers were examples. Lego can double their retail prices because there are some people who are oblivious but the AFOLs in the know will wait to purchase until they are discounted, probably back to retail and then we will buy. In this case, they lose nothing but gain all of the extra income from overpricing the sets.

    What the reseller percentage is though to be is nonsense. Nowadays, I'm sure it's much more.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,143
    Lego literally does not care about the aftermarket.  

    They are no different than the baseball card industry or any other company selling collectibles.

    If the Town Hall or any other set sold like the DS, it would be around just as long.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 15,143
    Aside from the fact, who is buying from resellers?  

    These folks don't seem to get that it's cheaper to buy them new?
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