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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    edited December 2011
    @richo

    It's funny how some sets spike, while others don't. And since no one throws Lego parts away, collections and quantities from generations of family continue rise and rise I'd think. And with each year, Lego produces more and more sets. At some point - there is a saturation level.

    A quick check at Bricklink of the # of sets produced in 2011 vs 2001 vs 1991 vs etc. *Note that each Advent day counts as a set; as does each Collectible Minifigure; and there are quite a few variants listed individually for all kinds of stuff. General #s here people, multiplying off their grid of pages and eyeballing it...

    Sets produced by year:
    2011 - 424
    2001 - 380
    1991 - 152
    1981 - 96
    1971 - 84
    Interesting #s.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2011
    @prevere - very interesting!

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but Lego is releasing multiple collectible minifigs each year (not really a set) and they also started releasing two Advent Calendars each year instead of one, the actual number of sets must have peaked several years ago and started dropping.

    Another interesting statistic would be to see how many new sets were released each year with respect to the number of sets retired. It could give somewhat of an idea on what to expect regarding the number of sets (not which sets) to be EOL'd.

    Statistical analysis provides a lot of interesting possibilities regarding what TLG is doing with their product lines.
  • SupersympaSupersympa Member Posts: 534
    Container ship Maersk 10155 not even showing on lego.com....
    one out! next? ;)
  • sonsofscevasonsofsceva Member Posts: 542
    edited December 2011
    @prevere On the first point made: LEGO collections don't rise across generations as much as you would hope. Most kids give them away when they get older, and parents will often give away/throw out LEGO sets later on, especially if they are incomplete due to vacuum episodes. This may happen less now, but tossing old toys was still common even just a couple of decades ago.
  • bahnstormerbahnstormer Member Posts: 180
    whats with train set 3677? Just seen a pic of the US packaging which has the yellow limited stripe on it - euro packaging doesnt.

    This was only available at one chain and [email protected] in Germany and said chain have now cut the price by 40%. 7938 & 7939
    are both shown as carrying on into 2012 in German catalogue, 3677 isnt mentioned or pictured.


    what are the odds this will disappear as quickly as it arrived?
  • The_Brick_BuilderThe_Brick_Builder Member Posts: 658
    7639 Camper Van has been removed from [email protected] last night. I suspect its now retired!
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    Went to my local Lego store yesterday to scoop some of the new Super Hero sets for xmas gifts. Looked around at the shelves to see what they had left and what might be on sale. Predictably all the sets that were discounted by 25% on Black Friday were nowhere to be seen. Either they all sold or they are sitting in the storeroom waiting for 12/26....I am guessing they sold. HP had an anemic selection and this space will surely go. A few Knights Buses and that's it.

    While I am sure some of the smaller sets from various themes will be 50% off I don't see any of the larger popular sets left to discount. Probably some Cars, battle packs, some of the clone wars, POTC etc will be 50% but nothing substantial. They had plenty of Winter Bakery and Post Office that they may sale but those will be available xmas 2012 so whats the point? Oh well guess we will know for sure 12/25 online.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,792
    A lot of sets have been dropping, EN and IF are both off the LEGO.com site... I think the Battle of Endor, AT-AT and Dropship are gone too.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,792
    Went to my local Lego store yesterday to scoop some of the new Super Hero sets for xmas gifts. Looked around at the shelves to see what they had left and what might be on sale. Predictably all the sets that were discounted by 25% on Black Friday were nowhere to be seen. Either they all sold or they are sitting in the storeroom waiting for 12/26....I am guessing they sold. HP had an anemic selection and this space will surely go. A few Knights Buses and that's it.

    While I am sure some of the smaller sets from various themes will be 50% off I don't see any of the larger popular sets left to discount. Probably some Cars, battle packs, some of the clone wars, POTC etc will be 50% but nothing substantial. They had plenty of Winter Bakery and Post Office that they may sale but those will be available xmas 2012 so whats the point? Oh well guess we will know for sure 12/25 online.
    If Spy plane escape is heavily discounted I may get a few for the Airplanes.
    Otherwise I'm guessing a handful or larger sets on sale and a bunch of the sets for lines soon to be gone.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2011
    7639 Camper Van has been removed from [email protected] last night. I suspect its now retired!
    I would be extremely surprised if 7639 is gone for good. It was only just released, and is a popular set. I suspect TLG has only sold out of it for the Christmas rush and it will be back for sale in January at the latest.
    Container ship Maersk 10155 not even showing on lego.com....one out! next? ;)
    Yep...gone for good. I wish I would have picked one up before it went away.
    While I am sure some of the smaller sets from various themes will be 50% off I don't see any of the larger popular sets left to discount. Probably some Cars, battle packs, some of the clone wars, POTC etc will be 50% but nothing substantial. They had plenty of Winter Bakery and Post Office that they may sale but those will be available xmas 2012 so whats the point? Oh well guess we will know for sure 12/25 online.
    PotC may be gone for good so I grabbed a QAR at Barnes and Noble for 40% off yesterday. I can see it being 50% off for the after Christmas sale...for about 15 minutes before it's gone. By the way, there's another thread here on Brickset that has the 40% off coupon at B&N that I used. It's a pretty good deal...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    ^ I was hoping for 1 more wave of POTC with the Flying Dutchman rumors but you may be correct. However given they retired the IF I can't see the current POTC ships not sticking around for another year.
  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Administrator Posts: 6,755
    7639 Camper Van has been removed from [email protected] last night. I suspect its now retired!
    I would be extremely surprised if 7639 is gone for good. It was only just released, and is a popular set. I suspect TLG has only sold out of it for the Christmas rush and it will be back for sale in January at the latest.
    I completely agree - there's no way the VW Camper is retired yet.

  • BalloonistBalloonist Member Posts: 58
    I think there may be some confusion here between the 7639 Camper and the 10220 VW Camper
  • allmybricksallmybricks Member Posts: 156
    A camper build has been featured heavily in a "Build Together" commercial in the US this season... It's not 7639... but I have a feeling sales were boosted because of it. 4435 is the new Car & Camper which is also backordered.

    I kind of hope they release the Camper in the commercial. It looks like a nice Winnebago.

    You can see it at http://buildtogether.com
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    A camper build has been featured heavily in a "Build Together" commercial in the US this season... It's not 7639... but I have a feeling sales were boosted because of it. 4435 is the new Car & Camper which is also backordered.

    I kind of hope they release the Camper in the commercial. It looks like a nice Winnebago.

    You can see it at http://buildtogether.com
    Due to so many requests, LEGO will be releasing official instructions on how to build the camper on Facebook soon.
  • drdavewatforddrdavewatford Administrator Posts: 6,755
    edited December 2011
    I think there may be some confusion here between the 7639 Camper and the 10220 VW Camper
    Good point - you're right ! My bad....
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I think there may be some confusion here between the 7639 Camper and the 10220 VW Camper
    Yep...the old camper is gone, but not the new VW camper. Both are good sets.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    Love that old camper. The VW one as well.
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Member Posts: 357
    I got my January 2012 Catalog today and the MMV is NOT listed in it. So that set is gone or going to be EOL very soon. DS was in the catalog so thats sticking around after all, along with FB & GE. The catalog only really highlighted all the new sets that will be available come beginning of year, if not already out. Although it did list all the exclusives that are out right now along with the SW exclusives. BTW Tantive IV was missing, so that is gone too and the Dropship. It also looks like Hillside House is sticking around awhile longer as it was in the catalog. I found this interesting as most store exclusives are generally done by holidays...with of course the exception of WM's Landspeeder. So it looks like some sets we are right on, others not so much. I think once the Early Spring catalog comes out we will know more officially.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    edited December 2011
    I'm reading my new January 2012 Store Catalog and lots of interest...

    Store exclusives = Fangpyre Wrecking Ball, FP mech, FP arena, City Police Offroad Command Ctr, City Fire Transporter, City Recycling Container Truck, Dino Ocean Interceptor, Batman Funhouse, Hillside House, Jedi Interceptor and Y-Wing.

    For those hoping for discontinuation, also listed are VW Van, Shuttle Adventure/Expedition, FB, Pet Shop, GE, Tower Bridge, Maersk Train, Imperial Shuttle and DS.

    Edit: ninja'ed!
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    That sounds about right. MMV is the only semi surprise to me. Figured it would be sticking around longer with the good sales on it. Glad Maersk Train is sticking around longer - I haven't had enough time to hoard those. ;)
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    How about Architecture? All sets represented?
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Member Posts: 357
    How about Architecture? All sets represented?
    It showed the White House, Berlin Gate and Roby House
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Member Posts: 357

    For those hoping for discontinuation, also listed are VW Van, Shuttle Adventure/Expedition, FB, Pet Shop, GE, Tower Bridge, Maersk Train, Imperial Shuttle and DS.

    Edit: ninja'ed!
    Those sets will now be available from TRU, Target, etc., hence the change from Exclusive to Hard to Find. Although the Shuttle Expedition, DS, Maersk Train, FB, GE has been listed as Hard to Find for almost a year now. The other ones just made the change over.


  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    For "Non-Direct" sets, hard to find = Store Exclusive.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Wow - that would be interesting of Medieval Market Village is gone. I have 3. Need more! :)
  • The_Brick_BuilderThe_Brick_Builder Member Posts: 658
    ^^ LOL. I just have 1 NISB that I will build for my city.
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    edited December 2011
    No PQ, AC, Atlantis, PotC...
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ Diagon Alley?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    The MMV has had a long and successful ride and it is probably time for it to go. I'm really not surprised that its gone...it came out in what...2009?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I think HP will be gone too. HP, PoP, TS, and PotC (all licensed) will likely go away, providing TLG with better profit margins. They will be picking up Marvel/DC and LOTR in their place. Personally, I think it's a good tradeoff for TLG and will make them even more profitable in 2012.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    How much is the recycle truck listed for?
  • llanowarsoldierllanowarsoldier Member Posts: 357
    How much is the recycle truck listed for?
    29.99 for 297 pieces and its a store exclusive. My money is on Target.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    edited December 2011
    How much is the recycle truck listed for?
    29.99 for 297 pieces and its a store exclusive. My money is on Target.
    Thanks. Kinda steep in price. $24.99 would have been more digestable. The garbage truck is 208 pieces, and dump truck is 222 pieces. Both at $19.99. I really do hope it's Target and not Wal-Mart.
  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    Is Obi Wan's Jedi Starfighter in the catalog?
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    edited December 2011
    ^^ It is so cool looking. This one will likely be one of my favs much like the green/white shipping truck a couple years back.

    8 pages Ninjago, 6 pages City, 4Dino, 2 Cars, 4 Superheroes, 4 Friends, 4 SW

  • sidersddsidersdd Member Posts: 2,432
    ^ It is so cool looking. This one will likely be one of my favs much like the green/white shipping truck a couple years back.

    8 pages Ninjago, 6 pages City, 4Dino, 2 Cars, 4 Superheroes, 4 Friends, 4 SW

    Jedi Starfighter is cool looking? :P
    monte_net
  • dremel99dremel99 Member Posts: 123
    Amazon is showing this message for IF, "Only 4 left in stock--order soon (more on the way)." But when you type in qty 999 they are showing 999+, what is up with that?
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    @sidersdd - was missing a ^. Rectified. ;o)
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    @dremel99 - it means they'll let you order more since they have a shipment inbound, they may well have 50,000 more of them coming for all we know.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,792
    To anyone with the 2012 catalog (wonder why I have not received it yet.. may have to check my mailbox again) Is the LEGO bank and money transfer set still around? I ask because that is a Target set. If the recycling set is also Target I am guessing that Target may only want one 'exclusive' set
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited December 2011
    Does anyone know if the Shuttle Expedition (10231) is listed in the 2012 catalog? I could see that set being EOL'd as well.

    Oops...I think someone mentioned it was in there. It's a cool set, but has been around awhile.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,792
    Also, is the 7939 Yellow Cargo train still in the catalog?
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    Does anyone know if the Shuttle Expedition (10231) is listed in the 2012 catalog? I could see that set being EOL'd as well.

    Oops...I think someone mentioned it was in there. It's a cool set, but has been around awhile.
    I guess it depends on your definition of "a while" but it hasn't even been out for 18 months yet. Still has at least a year left.

  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    10213 has been around awhile, but 10231 has not... I don't think anyway...

    It is the kind of set they should keep for awhile, but when it goes, it will probably never be done again, so I can see that one being a good long term set.
  • LegoFanTexasLegoFanTexas Member Posts: 8,404
    It will be a shame when 7939 goes, I think it is better than the new Red Cargo Train, but that is just me. :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,792
    ^---I think it is a 'cost' thing.
    The Red Cargo train is 'cheaper' than the 7939 even though the 7939 is better IMO
  • YellowcastleYellowcastle Administrator, Moderator Posts: 5,234
    No trains listed, no Bank. I would have to go back and check but I'm confident that catalog space has always been an issue and that the lack of a set or theme is not in itself proof that the set/theme is gone.

    Now that I think about it, there are actually NO 2011 sets in the catalog outside of the Direct sets, games, Hillside House and Millennium Falcon. So I would not read too much into the absence of a set and simply put more stock into the presence of a set.
  • coolpixcoolpix Member Posts: 357
    Went with my wife to the Aventura Mall to buy her Xmas present, and took the opportunity to pass by the LEGO store there. The manager on duty was a really nice guy and I asked him how many FBs he had in stock, and he said "plenty". I asked him if it was EOL'd, but he said he does not know for sure. He said it looks like they are going to have it for a little longer, because they had plenty in stock, and it's not a great seller. He saw I was an AFOL instantly, and started to talk about the Dec 26th sale. He told me of a few sets that are EOL and will be discounted:

    - MMV: He said it's done. They have a few in stock and it will be discounted next week.
    - Kingdoms: Everything Kingdoms will go. They didn't had many Kingdoms stuff left though. Only the Blacksmith set.
    - Harry Potter: done, and will be discounted. They even had all Harry potter pulled from the shelves already, and placed on piles on the floor. They had only a few Quidditch, Forbidden Forest and Hogwarts. Diagon Alley was on the shelf near the esclusives, and will probably remain as an exclusive for a longer time.
    - All winter sets will be on sale
    - Star Wars Slave I and Endor Battle are done. Whatever they have left, will be discounted. Death Star stays for a little longer.
    - VW Camper stays. They were out of it, but it's coming back in stock early Jan.
    - Fire Brigade: He did not confirmed that this will be on sale, but he did not denied.
    - Imperial Frigate: They had 4 or 5 in stock, and they will indeed have prices slashed on Dec. 26th.
    - City Space sets: EVERYTHING WILL GO! He said they are not getting anything Space anymore, and everything with a space theme will be on sale coming Monday. That came as a shocker to me, since nobody mentioned Space here on this thread, not that I remember. Indeed they were short in stock of the bigger space sets. I believe that does not include the exclusive Space Shuttle though.

    He finished saying that he can't give too much details, but since I was an AFOL and a collector, he told me to come early, because most of the store will be discounted. Now, that store is a lot smaller than Sawgrass, and most of the stuff we've been talking about was sold out at Aventura. Sawgrass was stocked on almost everything. They had all Kingdoms sets, all Harry Potter sets, All Alien Conquest sets... I felt that only a couple sets at Sawgrass were gone for good, but everything else was there, if what the other guy said is true, Sawgrass will be a Zoo.

    Pharaoh Quest: On both stores I noticed that these sets were nowhere to be found. Not only that, but their shelf space was taken by Super Heroes sets (by the way, both stores had pretty much all sets, but the Catwoman and the Batmobile sets). I believe these PQs will pop back up on Dec. 26th on the floor heavily discounted.

    Well, let's see. It seems that this year we are having a bigger amount of sets being discontinued, but it can be just my own perception, since I this is the first time I am following all that closely.
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    That is a ton of information @Coolpix! Looks like Medieval Market Village will be a great set to pick up on sale. Your store has way more Harry Potter than others I have heard about. I haven't seen much discussion on sets such as Slave 1 - maybe its been rereleased so often, no one will miss it?

    For "imperial frigate" did you mean "Republic Frigate?" Thats a much newer set, surprised it would be added to this sale.

    I too have found what you have: that some stores are just more popular and much less of the "good" stock left, while other stores still have sets i would really want if they go on sale.

    Thanks!
    -Dan
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