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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I don't think I am making myself clear. I am saying that people did not invest in this set for obvious reasons. Buying ONE...Numeral UNO $15 set doesn't mean you invested in the set. If you bought 5, 10, 15 of these thinking that they would do well in the Aftermarket, then that is investing in a set. I am fairly sure most people did not buy this set in multiples thinking it would be a great investment. 
    madforLEGOpharmjodVorpalRyuSumoLegoFollowsClosely
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    Is Ecto-1 gone already? I went to grab a few this morning on the Winter Soldier promo and they are gone from Lego.com (USA).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Good news is that the Exo Suit is still around ;)
    PoochyVorpalRyudougtsSumoLegojuggles7AdeelZubair
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    SumoLego said:
    For Iron Man to have such low transaction numbers is telling.
    Exactly, most people who wanted to buy one probably bought one. I dont have any data but i would guess that the previous years figures show a totally different set of results. Something to keep in mind possibly with this theme.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,660
    edited June 2015
    ecmo47 said:
    Is Ecto-1 gone already? I went to grab a few this morning on the Winter Soldier promo and they are gone from Lego.com (USA).
    My guess is like other items on LEGO they tend to disappear and reappear from the site. Im guessing Ecto-1, if gone, would be sitting on the site with a 'sold out' next to it. If you have not done so already, I would say try to search for it with the search tool and see if it appears


  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    The listing for it appears to be there but blank (USA).
    Pitfall69
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    edited June 2015
    They are not selling for that price. The volume is low also.
    Well I've sold a dozen for around that price. The sales volume is getting much lower though, especially since I last shifted them. Works out at roughly 1 unit sold every week at the moment.
    Brickaholic
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    ^Your doing well then because i couldn't find one on ebay thats sold close to £50 never mind $144.

    Where exactly are you selling them at that price? 
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    SumoLego said:
    ^ I think he meant that it's pure speculation to buy an ugly $15.00 set on clearance and not a reasoned investment based on the performance of comparable sets.

    Lottery ticket speculation 'investing'.

    As compared to actual investing in the UCS MF, where a $400.00 set is now worth thousands.  Or another high-performing set.
    Why do people go on about #10179 ? Maybe less than 1% of this whole forum probably owned one, and i seriously doubt 0.01 % bought 10 or more. Most people who buy Lego to sell do not care if it looks like a Mona Lisa or a piece of c..p as long as they make a decent return, and buying a set for 15 dollars and selling it for 80 dollars is a good purchase, do you not agree?

    I am enjoying this  :)
    dougts
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^I agree, 10179 gets trotted out as an example way too often, much more than it deserves. It is the highest priced set, yes. But it is not the rarest, not the most profitable in % terms, not shifting in volume, EOL'd in a different era than the current reselling environment, etc. It makes for a poor comparison against most other scenarios being weighed.

    And as you're pointing to, I've grown to the perspective that it matters not what the set actually is as opposed to the buy versus sale price. The item's identity doesn't matter after it is sold, just X% of profit divided by time.
    dougtsbinaryeyeBrickaholicDadTXLegoguyAmanda1983
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    Thanks, it would be interesting to know how many sets have been made since #10179 's introduction to the present time and how many have quadrupled in price since. My guestimation would be less than 10%
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    ^Your doing well then because i couldn't find one on ebay thats sold close to £50 never mind $144.

    Where exactly are you selling them at that price? 

    Amazon. I got them for £8.99 from The Entertainer (store), some Months back, was pure luck as I was just having a nosy at the time so I was happy to get rid of the lot quickly rather than wait until now, which is just as well as they havn't really gone up much more in price over the last few Months. They definately seem to have peaked now.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Well, off the top of my head 2007 also saw the release of Cafe Corner and Effiel Tower, both more than quadrupled in price. You might as well throw, MS, GG and Grand Carousel in there as well (post 2007)
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 905
    I think a lot of us got them from the entertainer as they were selling them off.  I've been through a few boxes of them!
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    Thanks, it would be interesting to know how many sets have been made since #10179 's introduction to the present time and how many have quadrupled in price since. My guestimation would be less than 10%
    I noticed an ebay seller (not sure if I'm allowed to post the link?) getting £1000 for a used #10179, but what was interesting was that the set was 99% complete and they would make up the missing parts with different colours which may not be a surprise in itself, however despatch would be made in 30 days once parts have been located. I guess that's why it went for £1000 rather than the normal £1300-£1500 used priced tag.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    To be fair, I don't think the UCS MF is a great comparison as well, but then again, not many people were hoarding Lego for investment purposes. 
    Brickaholic
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    SumoLego said:
    ...
    Why do people go on about #10179 ? Maybe less than 1% of this whole forum probably owned one, and i seriously doubt 0.01 % bought 10 or more...
    I had just 5. Sold the 4 sealed when they crossed $1,000. I sold my personal copy in 2014 for $2,300.
    Pitfall69Brickaholicprevere
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^Like I said before; there weren't a ton of people hording Lego for investment purposes in 2007. A lot of the Advanced Sets that came out a after The UCS MF hit crazy numbers after retirement and this is what started the Lego investment craze. I didn't actually start to invest until 2011. 

    @Brickaholic you are probably correct about the 10%, but you also have to understand that there is a relatively small % of sets that are great investments. I think most of us have said that a decent Lego investment is a set that has at least hit 2.5x RRP. We can also agree that 2.5x RRP on a $400 set is leaps and bounds better than a $15 set at 2.5x RRP ;)
    prevereMilne44madforLEGO
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    Before my time, it must of been great to be involved in those days. One day i hope to get one for myself, but i just cant think i can do it.
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342

    @Brickaholic you are probably correct about the 10%, but you also have to understand that there is a relatively small % of sets that are great investments. I think most of us have said that a decent Lego investment is a set that has at least hit 2.5x RRP. We can also agree that 2.5x RRP on a $400 set is leaps and bounds better than a $15 set at 2.5x RRP ;)

    Yes your right 100% , but can you get 50% off the 400 Dollar Set now?

  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,852
    Point taken - if you can buy a $50.00 set for $15.00 and later sell it for $75.00, that's obviously a good return.  I'm sure there'll be some people that stocked up on Galaxy Squad sets that will do well.

    That's akin to parting out sets and eventually selling those pieces at a toy show or Bricklink.

    That's different from identifying an underrated or overlooked set that will eventually be sought after later.  

    Not to sound like a snob, but buying a case of reduced ugly Green Lantern sculpture Lego figures and selling them a few years later at a modest profit isn't sexy.  
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    Thanks, it would be interesting to know how many sets have been made since #10179 's introduction to the present time and how many have quadrupled in price since. My guestimation would be less than 10%
    I noticed an ebay seller (not sure if I'm allowed to post the link?) getting £1000 for a used #10179, but what was interesting was that the set was 99% complete and they would make up the missing parts with different colours which may not be a surprise in itself, however despatch would be made in 30 days once parts have been located. I guess that's why it went for £1000 rather than the normal £1300-£1500 used priced tag.

    I would guess that the substituted parts were the 2x LBG Boat Rigging, the printed radar dish and the LBG levers that are all unique to 10179. The absence of them would easily account for the price difference. 
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,101
    A current example of a good flip is the BTTF car. I bought 18 from Walmart when they had them on sale for $29.97. Just sent the last one out at $61.00. Profit after all fees was $19.45 per set. I was surprised at how fast they went. I'm sure I could have held on for 6 more months and made x2.5 but I hit the "it retired and I missed it so better grab one before it goes too high" rush just right.
    Pitfall69CurvedRoadPlateprevere
  • DarthMorlDarthMorl Member Posts: 335
    As newbie to lego, about a year now, and totally newcomer to the idea of buying lego to invest in this is all fascinating reading. I don't have the money spare to really invest in lego but I am going to buy a set to keep to purely try and sell on at the 2.5x RRP just for a bit of fun. I am thinking £150 max budget and am thinking of either the Pet Shop or Fairground Mixer. Any thoughts/advice???
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Darth welcome to the darkside :) I would not classify lego as an investment, you are simply reselling a retail product. Fans like to romanticize the idea but at the end of the day it is the same thing as thrifting for board games or books to resell online.

    Lego is very low hanging fruit in the reselling game so don't expect 2.5x RRP returns anytime soon. There are two ways to make good money in this game, buy popular themes/sets at a good discount or get lucky with surprise retirements. If you can combine both you will crush it. If you cannot do either then you will get better returns with far less work and headache investing in Apple stock.

    Pet Shop is stockpiled more than GE or FB (and probably both combined) so unless you are buying at a steep discount your can forget about 2.5x. Mixer is a very meh set in a good theme, probably going to see Horizon Express type returns and sell thru rate. Look elsewhere. Just MO. Good luck and good trades.
    DarthMorlvitreolumRsa33SumoLego
  • DarthMorlDarthMorl Member Posts: 335
    Thanks for the advice @doriansdad
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    ^ The Pet Shop will do just fine, similar to FB returns I think.



    BrickDancerpharmjod
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    Horizon did well for me, got them at a good discount a month post retiremnt and sold them all 1-2 months later easily for double. Definitely not a good long term investment but it was a damn good quick flip for me.
    juggles7
  • DarthMorlDarthMorl Member Posts: 335
    I don't mind keeping the eventual chosen set for a year to see what it reaches. Infact I think I will set that as my ground rule for my little experiment. 
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,547
    Darth welcome to the darkside :) I would not classify lego as an investment, you are simply reselling a retail product. Fans like to romanticize the idea but at the end of the day it is the same thing as thrifting for board games or books to resell online.

    I think it depends on perspective. If you are purchasing one or two sets, and then selling it at whatever value you want or just opening it after a couple of years if it doesn't get there and you could always use it, then that is one thing. Or buying a set and not getting round to building it, then realising it has increased in value, so you sell it.

    If you are paying $1000s (or even $100s) to obtain large stocks of specific sets to hold until they reach a target price or for a specific length of time, and that you'd have little interest in opening them for yourself in the quantities purchased, then I'd call that investing. If you are buying for the sole goal of selling, with no interest in the sets for your own collection, then there is little difference to purchasing stocks in companies you have no other interest in other than to just to get a rise in value or, indeed, investing in (non-lego) stock for your own business that you will use or sell.

    Many people invest in wine or whisky, which is just a retail product. Others invest in gold (whether held by them or not), which again is just a commodity. Others invest in land with the sole reason to sell it later, without the fallback plan of building a house on it for their own use if land prices go belly up. Some invest in property that will be rented out, and they have no intention of living there if they cannot rent it.

    For many resellers / investors here, I would imagine they are somewhere between these two extremes.

    The definition of investing is to use money to buy something that offers potential higher returns - whether through income by renting it, or increase in value on selling it. The latter is what most (lego) resellers are doing.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    ^ The Pet Shop will do just fine, similar to FB returns I think.



    If your buy in is $100 then yes it will do fine ;)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,660
    I think another good piece of investment advice is take everything said here with a big grain of salt.

    For example, I think many will also agree that PS will do at least as well as GE if not more so because it has been lacking any good sales to buy these cheap for the past few years meaning fewer people have been stockpiling these at 149.99 USD. You likely will have more holding off on buying it due to the price point - hoping that there will be some magical sale on them before they leave. I doubt seriously that there are more PS's being held than FB or GE combined right now. FB and GE were regularly found on sale in the past and I'm sure there are those on this very site that have large piles of both sets still, and more than their piles of PS's.

    My only other advice is watch the comments seen overall in the thread (even look back at the last, I dunno, 50 pages in this thread) and make your own conclusions on what may be better to grab a couple of based on that. I would not come in asking for the path to the golden goose as, in the best of times, you will get 20 differing opinions.


    ^ The Pet Shop will do just fine, similar to FB returns I think.



    If your buy in is $100 then yes it will do fine ;)

    The 149.99 USD price point will more than likely mean less stockpiles of these compared to GE and FB (both of which could be had on sale and many times could be gotten for 100 USD each during TRUs buy 2 get the 3rd free sales).
    So, while at 149.99 USD you need to see them rise further than what GE and FB do, I think with the fewer of PS that people will likely have, the demand will make up the difference maybe take a little while longer (6 months to 1 year) .
    Plus lets face it, can we really be comparing mods EOLing now to ones that were often sold on sale -comparing to that sales price? I do not think so.
    DarthMorlAmanda1983
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited June 2015
    I think another good piece of investment advice is take everything said here with a big grain of salt.
    Preach on.  Some of the advice on this thread is woefully inadequate at best.  Anyone who follows any one person's advice here is risking a lot.
    pharmjodPitfall69SumoLegoGoldchains
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    ^^ Nice post. I had 40+ of each FB and GE and my average buy in was $105 and $112 respectively. I have less than 30 PS and my average buy in is $147. I would not be one bit surprised if PS out performed both FB and the GE. There is something special about the PS.
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    PS is a boon for modders since you can make a huge variation of apartments and other types of buildings with the pieces. I think that's partly why Lego has kept it alive for so long. I don't think most collectors are buying multiple FB, TH or GE for their Lego towns. I think it will outperform GE, but probably not as well as FB. TH is on another plane of existence because it was never hoarded due to the surprise retirement.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 12,852
    I suppose I'll grab another one to fit in the BBT apartment...
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^It won't fit, but you can add to the width.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,302
    edited June 2015
    ^ Sure it'll fit...


    CCCVorpalRyuReesesPiecesSethro3GoldchainsAdeelZubairsnowhitie
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,547
    edited June 2015
    Lobot said:

    The DS has disappeared from the UK website... could this finally be the end? 

    It will leave quite a big gap in the SW range; it seems strange that the Sandcrawler is now the 'flagship' model both in terms of cost and part count.....I'm starting to miss it already!


    It's in the printed summer (UK) catalogue.
  • msandersmsanders Member Posts: 957
    CCC said:
    Lobot said:

    The DS has disappeared from the UK website... could this finally be the end? 

    It will leave quite a big gap in the SW range; it seems strange that the Sandcrawler is now the 'flagship' model both in terms of cost and part count.....I'm starting to miss it already!


    It's in the printed summer (UK) catalogue.

    My catalogue arrived last night and as @CCC says the DS is in there but it states next to 'Hard to find' - 'Limited quantity'


  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,547
    msanders said:
    CCC said:
    Lobot said:

    The DS has disappeared from the UK website... could this finally be the end? 

    It will leave quite a big gap in the SW range; it seems strange that the Sandcrawler is now the 'flagship' model both in terms of cost and part count.....I'm starting to miss it already!


    It's in the printed summer (UK) catalogue.

    My catalogue arrived last night and as @CCC says the DS is in there but it states next to 'Hard to find' - 'Limited quantity'


    They couldn't use the word "decommissioned" again, not after the Exosuit decommissioning campaign :-)
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    The newly commissioned Death...ahem Darth Star. 
    VorpalRyuGoldchainsAanchir
  • legofanfromleedslegofanfromleeds legoland...England Member Posts: 379

    TheLoneTensor
  • timinchicagotiminchicago USAMember Posts: 239
    Just got my catalog and sure enough the DS is prominently featured with no language to suggest it is going away anytime soon.  IIRC the SSD was also featured in the summer catalog only to be gone within days.

    I am curious if the Simpsons House is gone for good as the new catalog devotes the entire back page to the Kwik-E-Mart and no mention of the Simpson House.  My local store has not had one in several weeks but thankfully I was able to get one from Amazon.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,547
    I'm fairly sure the Simpsons house was in the UK one.



    Dad
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    In the US catalog I received, I thought it interesting that PR was not featured. Perhaps they're pushing PS and PC because they're older.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    binaryeye said:
    In the US catalog I received, I thought it interesting that PR was not featured. Perhaps they're pushing PS and PC because they're older.
    I have a hard time believing TLG would screw resellers who are stockpiling PS by retiring a modular out of order  :D

    I like how it appears with TH in the catalog. Inside joke I am sure.
  • msandersmsanders Member Posts: 957
    binaryeye said:
    In the US catalog I received, I thought it interesting that PR was not featured. Perhaps they're pushing PS and PC because they're older.
    I think there are a lot of differences between the UK and US versions, at least. The UK version doesn't have the pet shop at all!
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    ^^ They sort of retired the TH before GE, so it's not that much of a stretch.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,660
    edited June 2015

    Just got my catalog and sure enough the DS is prominently featured with no language to suggest it is going away anytime soon.  IIRC the SSD was also featured in the summer catalog only to be gone within days.

    I am curious if the Simpsons House is gone for good as the new catalog devotes the entire back page to the Kwik-E-Mart and no mention of the Simpson House.  My local store has not had one in several weeks but thankfully I was able to get one from Amazon.

    I'm not sure why people take the catalog as an indicator of what will and will not be available. I'm sure if I can recall there have been many many sets that appeared in the catalog only to have disappeared from production shortly after.
    One Notable one, if I recall correctly, was #41999. Heck they have the Winter Soldier promo in the catalog now and what are the odds his stocks make it past this weekend let alone for the 'timeline' the catalog is for?

    vitreolum said:
    ^^ They sort of retired the TH before GE, so it's not that much of a stretch.

    I'm also not sure why people keep assuming that TH was part of the mod line production time scale, considering its price was well over the mod line price range. TH was 199.99 USD and until someone at LEGO confirms that it was meant to be out for 5 years but died early due to lack of sales I will keep believing that 2 years was likely all it was to be out for. Because I doubt that sales of PS or PC for that matter are much better than Town hall at this stage of their production; yet they are still available. Is anything possible? Sure but likely PS is going at the end of this year, then PC, just as it has been so far with the 149.99 USD mods.
    Now all that being said, if you want a mod, get it, do ont assume. That is the minimum the TH should really tell people.
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