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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

1505506508510511668

Comments

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Xmas season is really key to clear out lower price points on these retired sets. Without that, quantities usually remain high enough to stagnate price growth.

    Noticed that this past season didn't quite "do the trick" for some sets like I was hoping. Dynamic Duo for example.
    juggles7
  • groundedgrounded Central OhioMember Posts: 73
    I think TH could be closer to 1000 USD by this Christmas than many think. By comparison I think HH will be around 400-450 USD by around Halloween this year

    I think the Monster-themed CMF line coming out this fall will give the HH a nice bump. 
    SumoLegoFarmer_John
  • scotty12scotty12 United States, IowaMember Posts: 685
    So I currently have over $75 worth of gift cards to blow...I have most of the modular/usc sets....except for Detective Office(no rush yet), Parisian Restaurant, Simpsons House, MetalBeard Sea Cow or Ewok Village.  Which set is retiring first and which set will I look back and regret not getting?
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,846
    I would say the Sea Cow or the Ewok Village.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^^Simpsons
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,846
    edited May 2015
    I think you have atleast 18 months on the Simpson's House.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    I think Metalbeard's Sea Cow is getting a bit stagnate, but it's also an unlicensed theme so who knows.
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 294
    edited May 2015
    Curious what everyones thought as of May 2015 is on most of the big sets available right now. Since this is the predictions thread lets get an active list going (if we get enough responses Ill average everything out in a week or so for a running tally):

    Set                                              EOL in Months                               Value EOL +12mo
    10188 Death Star
    75059 Sandcrawler
    10236 Ewok Village
    70810 Metalbeards Seacow
    76023 Tumbler
    10244 Fairground Mixer
    10220 Volkswagen T1
    10242 Mini Cooper
    71006 Simpsons House
    10245 Santa's Workshop
    10218 Pet Shop
    10232 Palace Cinema
    10240 Red Five X-Wing
    10234 Sydney Opera House
    10214 Tower Bridge
    10237 Tower of Orthanc
    10243 Parisian Restaurant



  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    The problem is, you could have a monkey fill out that matrix and you'd end up with something just as accurate.
    exciter1preverePitfall69SumoLegoRainstorm26Adzbadboy
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 294
    same could be said for the past 508 pages.  It's the prediction thread not the guarantee thread.  I get confused sometimes too though.  All you can do is shake it off and try again tomorrow
  • vitreolumvitreolum RomaniaMember Posts: 1,406
    prevere said:
    Xmas season is really key to clear out lower price points on these retired sets. Without that, quantities usually remain high enough to stagnate price growth.

    Noticed that this past season didn't quite "do the trick" for some sets like I was hoping. Dynamic Duo for example.

    I had high hopes for that as well, this is one rare time I don't mind I didn't get a chance to stack them (sold 90% of the ones I've had in one go just before EOL and couldn't find more afterwards to replace). The problem with this one is the extremely high availability in US.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    The problem is, you could have a monkey fill out that matrix and you'd end up with something just as accurate.
    The monkey sees everything.


    TheLoneTensorRonyargroundedBrickDancerSumoLegoRainstorm26snowhitieGoldchainsAdzbadboy
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^The Brickset Monkey returns!
    Pitfall69
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    3stackshs said:

    Curious what everyones thought as of May 2015 is on most of the big sets available right now. Since this is the predictions thread lets get an active list going (if we get enough responses Ill average everything out in a week or so for a running tally):

    Set                                              EOL in Months                               Value EOL +12mo
    10188 Death Star
    75059 Sandcrawler
    10236 Ewok Village
    70810 Metalbeards Seacow
    76023 Tumbler
    10244 Fairground Mixer
    10220 Volkswagen T1
    10242 Mini Cooper
    71006 Simpsons House
    10245 Santa's Workshop
    10218 Pet Shop
    10232 Palace Cinema
    10240 Red Five X-Wing
    10234 Sydney Opera House
    10214 Tower Bridge
    10237 Tower of Orthanc
    10243 Parisian Restaurant



    There are ways to find this out for yourself, albeit it's never 100% accurate, enjoy ;-)

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    edited May 2015
    3stacksha,

    If you're not fond of the monkey, we could also ask the 8-Ball with probably better results. Here, let's try one.

    "Will the Death Star retire in 2015?"...Answer (first try, honestly) "My sources say no".

    My goodness, the 8-Ball actually works!

    http://www.ask8ball.net/





    Pitfall69
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 294
    hence my column for when, and value 12 mo + eol.  Thanks for answering without being a jerk about it  :)
    Pitfall69LegoboymadforLEGOGoldchainsAmanda1983
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    70810 Metalbeards Seacow
    10220 Volkswagen T1
    10218 Pet Shop
    10234 Sydney Opera House
    10214 Tower Bridge
    10237 Tower of Orthanc

    Among those listed, these are probably the most likely to retire soon.  PS is the likely winner of the group, and I would expect it to almost double in a year.  I'm gonna need a shot at a door prize to fill out the entire list.  :smile: 
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 294
    You don't think any of the Star Wars sets will go?  I thought for sure at least 1 just because of what has come out this year
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2015
    ^The thing about Star Wars sets these days is that if a set does retire, it's promptly replaced with a rehash (albeit a somewhat different scale).
    madforLEGO
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2015
    I'm curious as to how my post derailed you.  I certainly can't stop you if you want to move forward with your chart concept, so if you think there is value in doing it, by all means...


    ricecake
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    edited May 2015
    ^^But not UCS scale. This could be the last X-Wing UCS ever, so Red Five probably will do well. I have a feeling it's not been heavily stocked, much like R2, who is doing just fine at less than 12 months EOL.

    I went back to the 8 Ball. Now, every answer is "my sources say no"! Darn thing is punking me.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,874
    I think its safe to assume we won't see a rehash of Ewok Village, Sandcrawler or Red 5 (on that scale) anytime soon if ever. The Death Star is obviously a ? I can't decide if the speculation about a replacement Death Star is one big joke, or if people have actually heard some legit rumors. I'm leaning towards one big joke, but who knows. 
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    ^^^You can't argue with "Bad Ash"
    ricecake
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    3stackshs said:
    You don't think any of the Star Wars sets will go?  I thought for sure at least 1 just because of what has come out this year
    Good point.  The Red Five #10240 is over 2 years old and probably won't last much longer.
  • thehornedratthehornedrat Member Posts: 86
    I can't help but smile in amusement when people predict the impending retirement of Pet Shop modular when LEGO just increased its stock at [email protected] to 1700. But see how fast its dropping though, it would be selling out in a month at this rate, obviously being bought out in multiples by speculators. Its as if LEGO is purposely flooding the speculative market. Its price will be suppressed for a long time. Imagine the liquidity crunch should/if/when sellers flood the market at the same time.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,697
    If you want other people's guesses, why not fill it in with your predictions first?
    Amanda1983
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 888
    Can't see the sydney opera house and tower bridge going at the same time tbh!
  • BillybrownBillybrown UKMember Posts: 748
    stevemack said:
    Can't see the sydney opera house and tower bridge going at the same time tbh!
    Tower bridge is long overdue to go, it's becoming another death star. If there was a pattern then Sydney opera house would therefore retire next decade, but that's the flip of a coin with Lego and why there are hundreds of pages, from a re-selling point of view I wouldn't bother with tower bridge as I have 40 of them to sell, and I'll saturate the market for a few years ;-)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^The Tower Bridge is one of those sets that I personally like, and it was available to be picked up much more reasonably before TLG killed sales on exclusives in North America. However, it's been out so long now that it'll probably be at least a couple years after it's retired before it provides a decent return. It might get a bit of a boost if TLG retires with without any notice, but probably not a lot. The darn thing has been out since 2010!
  • DarthMorlDarthMorl Member Posts: 335
    Collecting more than one theme on a budget is a nightmare lol. Can't wait till I have caught up with modular's and UCS sets and can then stop panicking about what will end next!
    i know it's only educated guesses but I don't own any of the currently available UCS sets or Modulars so which of those do you think most likely to go?
    from reading this I'm guessing pet shop and x wing?? 
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Yes those two plus the Ewok Village most likely, if that's on your list.
    DarthMorl
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 888
    stevemack said:
    Can't see the sydney opera house and tower bridge going at the same time tbh!
    Tower bridge is long overdue to go, it's becoming another death star. If there was a pattern then Sydney opera house would therefore retire next decade, but that's the flip of a coin with Lego and why there are hundreds of pages, from a re-selling point of view I wouldn't bother with tower bridge as I have 40 of them to sell, and I'll saturate the market for a few years ;-)


    40.... Lol, Add that to my 30 I have

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813

    Don't come back yet @Legoboy :'(

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    How does one know that [email protected] has a stock of 1700 Pet Shops? Which [email protected]? Am I missing something here?
    Bumblepantsjuggles7
  • DarthMorlDarthMorl Member Posts: 335
    [email protected] 
    to be honest while Ewok Village is an awesome set I don't count it as a UCS :) 
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,334
    Pitfall69 said:
    How does one know that [email protected] has a stock of 1700 Pet Shops? Which [email protected]? Am I missing something here?

    http://brickset.com/article/14929/new-feature-shop-lego-com-stock-level-graph
    Sethro3Pitfall69Amanda1983
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    Thanks for the link. I never noticed that before. It looks like EU is down to 1340 at time of posting this for Pet Shop...so that's interesting.

    But since it doesn't play into North America, it won't bother me to pay attention to it.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,328
    edited May 2015
    ^The thing about Star Wars sets these days is that if a set does retire, it's promptly replaced with a rehash (albeit a somewhat different scale).

    People also have to account that they are not the only one thinking 'gee this set will do well' there will have a ton of resellers thinking the same thing. I think if there is any implication of a LEGO reseller 'bubble'  LEGO SW is the first to show signs of it.
    I can't help but smile in amusement when people predict the impending retirement of Pet Shop modular when LEGO just increased its stock at [email protected] to 1700. But see how fast its dropping though, it would be selling out in a month at this rate, obviously being bought out in multiples by speculators. Its as if LEGO is purposely flooding the speculative market. Its price will be suppressed for a long time. Imagine the liquidity crunch should/if/when sellers flood the market at the same time.

    I think that just because LEGO makes a 1700 run means it is not going this year.
    I believe LEGO has a marked run of a set. That is they make x amount until they stop. I do not think they wind down their production (unless someone has that info handy)
    I'm guessing that LEGO made 1700 Town halls in the middle of last year too.
    So you can assume that PS stays another year, but I would not.

    Also people should not forget Santa's Workshop which is still available in the US (Albeit temp out of stock now at [email protected] US)

  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,700
    Dad said:

    Don't come back yet @Legoboy :'(

    Don't worry mate, I smell bullshit.
    Pitfall69
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 803
    I feel like Lego might pull a shocker by retiring palace cinema first, and letting pet shop ride another year.  This especially if the next modular is a corner unit.  Pet shop might just be the Death Star of the modulars.
    brickupdateSumoLegoAdzbadboy
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I feel like Lego might pull a shocker by retiring palace cinema first, and letting pet shop ride another year.  This especially if the next modular is a corner unit.  Pet shop might just be the Death Star of the modulars.
    I don't feel TLG would be unhappy with having 5 mods in their portfolio again for 2016.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 888
    Ewok Village is just a normal set isn't it? It's not a UCS one?
    SumoLego
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^No it's not UCS.
    SumoLego
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2015
    ^ Why isn't it UCS?  (and so it begins :))
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,846
    I guess we really do repeat the SW UCS protestations every so many pages.

    Newsflash, the Death Star is also a non-UCS set, it's the same as the Ewok Village.

    I get the sense that the Ewok Village may be gone next year.  
    Amanda1983
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 11,846
    By the way, is the UCS Naboo Fighter really a $500+ item?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    ^No
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