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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • xiahnaxiahna Member Posts: 156
    Lol @ToneTensor gold! (and I have my food bag at the ready too)
    Yeah, I'm one of these adults who've er-discovered Lego and I LOVf leE the modular sets. I don't own them all but then again I don't have to. That's the beauty of Lego. As for the bubble, everything Iain one. Economys fluctuate and so therefore does everything that gets sold. However as long as people are willing to shell out for sets, the re-sale market will continue.
    VorpalRyu
  • xiahnaxiahna Member Posts: 156
    Aaaand it looks like my phone glitched a little there... But I trust you get what I meant lol.
    VorpalRyuFollowsClosely
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,229
    What time does the PitfallCon intergalactic dance-off begin?

    My money is on Groot.
    VorpalRyubobabricks
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,161
    I don't really do any investing, but saying the mini modulars set will take off just doesn't make sense to me.

    I've done some looking at older sets I'd like to get, including the mini modulars, and that set seems to be either holding pretty steady (I found one on eBay for $170 + $10 shipping) or growing insanely slow. Most of them I found fall between the $180-$200 range.

    Plus I don't remember it being a super popular set. Wasn't it available to only VIP's for quite a while and then they decided to sell it to the general public due to slow sales numbers? I just don't remember it being that popular.
    VorpalRyu
  • Sethro3Sethro3 Member Posts: 998
    I think it is a neat set, but are there really any unique parts in it? I like having it and even built some of my own to go with the smaller street. However, if it didn't take off yet, it probably won't. One could assume LEGO will release another mini set since there are 5 sets out again, but if the first series didn't sell well, why would they waste their time on another series? (although I'd pick it up if they did)

    As for SW...it seems they will sell well no matter what. OT/PT/Clone Wars...especially if purchased on sale.
    FollowsCloselyVorpalRyu
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    I wonder how long the Ghostbuster's Ecto will be available? Much hunch is that it will be gone in the next couple months. I would like to grab a second copy, but there are some many other sets that I don't have at all. But with how fast the BttF set seems to be rising, I might just go ahead and grab a second set next month during the Winter Soldier giveaway.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    If in the US, I say if you are going to buy an Ecto-1, do it through [email protected] in June with Winter Soldier promo.
    If anywhere else, I would wait for a promotion, if you think you can hold off, in the next few months.
    I have a couple, they are pricey and rarely on sale. That tells me they may do very well if they disappear in the next few months (especially if right before The holidays)
     
    I have a couple but definitely on my list to get a couple more. In the mean time I probably will be buying the Ferris wheel in June to get the Winter Soldier
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,290
    ^^ No really unique parts, but it's chock full of useful plates and tiles in nice colors. For this reason, I haven't sold any of my copies yet.

    These were $64 on Black Friday 2012 and 2013. In 2012, there was also an additional 10% off (or more if you were lucky with a scratcher), 5% VIP points, and buying two would yield a free holiday set. That works out to an adjusted cost of no more than $50. 200%+ return after one year is pretty decent to me.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    edited May 2015
    Although the mini modular may not be have unique parts, the set itself is unique.  If there ever was a second set, this first one would get real hot.  And btw, without any special licensing, or special molds, and being sold lego direct, really, how many do they have to sell for it to be considered a "great seller" or not?  I think it could remain very limited and still be successful.

    I had always wished the TRU exclusive minies were the same scale as the mini modulars, was there ever a reason given as why they weren't?
  • juggles7juggles7 Member Posts: 451
    According to lego.wikia.com, the TRU exclusive mini sets are "compatible" with the #10230.  Can you clear this up for us, @ryjay ?  You say they are not the same scale. 
    Pitfall69
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    Mini modulars bigger, TRU's smaller ;)
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    edited May 2015
    Ok, obviously the pieces are all the same scale but when built , the TRU sets sit about 2" smaller when placed next to the #10230 set.  Sidewalks don't match up and transfer from one set to the other.  If you modify the connectors placement to have the sidewalks match, then the building won't line up.
    juggles7
  • mr.pigglesmr.piggles Member Posts: 325
    I found this picture here http://forums.hardwarezone.com.sg/eat-drink-man-woman-16/lego-thread-[strictly-no-sales-]-part-10-a-4874575-92.html When I bought the official set and the TRU ones I really thought they'd all align. "Everyone" said they were compatible, I should've looked more into what compatible really meant.
    juggles7chuckpAdeelZubair
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    They're as compatible with Mini Modulars as Megabloks is with LEGO.
    BumblepantsSumoLegoAdeelZubair
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    Maybe a better word is substantial, the Toy R US minis are not up to what we got with #10230.  Kinda like creator set #31026 is not on par with  modular set #10246....yes same mini figure scale but not quite "big" enough to look correct paired with the modular line.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego Member Posts: 15,229
    Just do a little forced perspective...
    matticus_bricks
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 159
    Any reason the USC slave 1 doesn't seem to be getting any attention on this board?
  • stevemackstevemack Member Posts: 934
    Because this is the discontinued thread and the slave won't go for at least another 2 years :)
    SumoLego
  • PmhPmh Member Posts: 128

    Hmm yes,the lego world is indeed huge as I now slowly start to discover.

    Am not stuck with any mini modular sets,i didn't even buy a single set when it was for sale at 65,something I now deeply regret. Not because I wanted it as an investment but because I do like the set a lot. But when it was for sale i was just exiting my dark ages and 65 seemed a lot for any set,that perspective has been changed a bit now though.

    It is true that there are many adults that can afford to spend a lot of money on lego ,but there are also so many lego sets for sale already. You could easily spend 5k on existing sets without ever bothering with retired sets. And then I would also rather have 8 copys of detective office for example (to make one proper one) instead of having say 1 copy of market street or some other rare set. But this is something personal and I can imagine other people rather collecting the whole set instead of building moc,s with multiples of existing sets.

    Starwars sets I don't see as to promising either,after the initial sets skyrocketed many investors caught on and I think there is a huge supply of the newer sets,both star wars and modular,sitting on the shelves of hoby investors. The older sets took of and went so high because almost no one was hoarding lego at that time.

    Pet shop for example I can see on dutch ebay sites all the time for ~165 euro asking price,only 25 euro more then it was in the shop, Almost all the other retired sets like haunted house and townhall I see for sale regulary at somewhat inflated prices of 300-400,either from privare sellers as well as from webshops. When I look at the adds they do not seem to be rare sets. The mini modular set however I almost never see for sale on the web,besides that one time 1 month ago in a specialized lego shop. Maybe because its a bit older set.For that reason I think it is one of the rarer,and therefor more promising set but that's just me and I have to admit I am completely new to this. Maybe the set is as common as grand emporium,i don't know.

    Well:wish you all the luck with investing. Even though I don't invest in lego myself (yet) you all do good work by keeping lego sets available for collectors for many years after they went out of production.

  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    Pmh said:

     Even though I don't invest in lego myself (yet) you all do good work by keeping lego sets available for collectors for many years after they went out of production.

    How much money did the frequent members of this thread pay you to say that?
    LegoboyTXLegoguyPitfall69Farmer_JohnpharmjodSumoLegoVortexGoldchainsAdeelZubair
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    @Pmh, Netherlands, really?  You're actually in Texas, right?
    sidersddTXLegoguyprevereFarmer_Johnpharmjodchuckp
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited May 2015
    Ahhh. LFT...
  • RennyRenny Member Posts: 1,145
    @pmh, why would you need eight copies of the Detective Office set to make a proper one? Just curious. I can understand buying another copy to add another floor but eight?
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Member Posts: 1,376
    Anyone heard from LFT lately?
  • piratemania7piratemania7 Member Posts: 2,146
    ^ or yellowcastle?
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    wagnerml2 said:
    Anyone heard from LFT lately?
    LF who? :)
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 143
    Can you tell us if LFT is still lurking Huw?
  • LegoboyLegoboy Member Posts: 8,827
    Logged in, not since mid March.
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    Yoda?
  • dougtsdougts Member Posts: 4,110
    Yoda?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    ^You can say that again ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    @Renny , I was wondering the same thing about the (8) DO's. He might be enjoying the local fare in Amsterdam too much ;) As an investment, I definitely would rather have (1) Market Street than (8) DO's, but I do not think he was talking about investing. Heck, I am not really sure what he is talking about. 
    Milne44
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 Member Posts: 11,454
    edited May 2015
    I wonder what happened to @Yellowcastle as well. I hope he is ok .
  • PmhPmh Member Posts: 128
    edited May 2015

    It was a response to the person saying that there where many adults who could easily spend 5k or 10k+ on lego and that therefor there was no bubble in the retired sets.

    But someone who has 5k or even 10k to spend on lego does not have to spend that like 1000 on market street,2000 on taj mahal, 5000 on a millennium falcon and then 2000 for whatever sets currently available. If I look at myself and I would have 1000 to spend on lego right now then I would not buy market street or any retired set,i would rather buy 6x the detective office.(its by far my favorite set and I want build a huge moc with it on full minifigure scale so that's why). Even if I had 10k to spend on lego right now,then I would still not buy market street. Thoose prices are paid by people who can spend not 10.000,but 100.000 on lego.

    I don't think that there is a bubble in the older retired sets,some of those sets are truly rare and there are people who can and will spend 100k on lego,but for all the sets later then ~2010-2011 I am quiet pessimistic and I don't see them ever going for significantly more then 2x original price (except for special collectible and rare sets).

     The supply just feels very high and then there is also the supply of new sets every year that people spend a lot of money on.  For an item to reach a truly high price the supply should be pretty low.  I don't think the demand will ever be high enough to pay say 1k for a fire station or town hall. (bar inflation,its kinda funny that common sets bought in the 70,s and early 80,s are still worth their money or even more due to inflation). But then again,you don't need to make 100% on a retired set. If you have 1k sets and make 10-15 per set then that's also a nice sum of money.

    Well this will be my last post in this thread since I don't want to spoil the fun for you all with my pessimistic comments. It is a very interesting market that sparked my interest,thats the only reason i posted. I do hope that I am wrong and that ssd will reach 2000 and townhall 1000:)

    Vortexbrickupdate
  • CCCCCC Member Posts: 20,526
    If you are willing to buy multiple DO to build a large version then you are not a collector. You're a builder. Collectors will go for sets, and if they want to be complete may well go for older sets first before they become rarer still.

    PS, there's nothing wrong with being a builder.
    VorpalRyudougtsSumoLego
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu Member Posts: 2,318
    edited May 2015
    ^ Or a bit of both... [cranks "Ain't no mountain high enough"]
    dougtsxiahna
  • samiam391samiam391 Member Posts: 4,492
    edited May 2015
    VorpalRyu said:
    ^ Or a bit of both... [cranks "Ain't no mountain high enough"]
    "Too keep me from building to you, baby!"
    VorpalRyuSumoLego
  • pharmjodpharmjod Member Posts: 2,916
    I disagree about Town Hall. I fully expect it to be at $1000+ in the next 2-3 years. We will just have to wait and see though.
    madforLEGOvitreolumFarmer_John
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John Member Posts: 2,405
    edited May 2015
    pharmjod said:
    I disagree about Town Hall. I fully expect it to be at $1000+ in the next 2-3 years. We will just have to wait and see though.
    It's comments like this that make me glad that the Brickset guy that made a deal to purchase my extra sealed TH a few months ago for $275 with local pickup welched on the deal.
    pharmjodPitfall69dougtsprevereFollowsCloselySumoLego
  • gunther.schnitzelgunther.schnitzel Member Posts: 92
    I suspect LEGO have realised that a lot of the modular in particular are being bought by collectors and are increasing the volume they make / sell e.g. the PS is readily available again on the IE website with a 5 limit, versus being out of stock a while back.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor Member Posts: 3,937
    They realized this back with the FB.
    pharmjodDadmadforLEGO
  • hoyatableshoyatables Member Posts: 873
    I have to say, based on the interest in my used Haunted House set, it will clearly turn out to be a winner. 
    pharmjod
  • vitreolumvitreolum Member Posts: 1,406
    ^ It kind of is already.
    FollowsClosely
  • doriansdaddoriansdad Member Posts: 1,337
    I agree. I still think at today's prices 10228 and 10224 are fine investments. 
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    Sealed town hall just sold for £350 on eBay! This is just going up and up
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Member Posts: 10,789
    I think TH could be closer to 1000 USD by this Christmas than many think. By comparison I think HH will be around 400-450 USD by around Halloween this year
  • DadDad Member Posts: 816
    It will be interesting. I'm thinking it will be another 2 years to break £500. Static over the summer maybe hitting £425 at Christmas 2015?
    FollowsClosely
  • prevereprevere Member Posts: 2,923
    Xmas season is really key to clear out lower price points on these retired sets. Without that, quantities usually remain high enough to stagnate price growth.

    Noticed that this past season didn't quite "do the trick" for some sets like I was hoping. Dynamic Duo for example.
    juggles7
  • groundedgrounded Member Posts: 73
    madforLEGO said:
    I think TH could be closer to 1000 USD by this Christmas than many think. By comparison I think HH will be around 400-450 USD by around Halloween this year

    I think the Monster-themed CMF line coming out this fall will give the HH a nice bump. 
    SumoLegoFarmer_John
  • scotty12scotty12 Member Posts: 836
    So I currently have over $75 worth of gift cards to blow...I have most of the modular/usc sets....except for Detective Office(no rush yet), Parisian Restaurant, Simpsons House, MetalBeard Sea Cow or Ewok Village.  Which set is retiring first and which set will I look back and regret not getting?
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