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Yeah, I'm one of these adults who've er-discovered Lego and I LOVf leE the modular sets. I don't own them all but then again I don't have to. That's the beauty of Lego. As for the bubble, everything Iain one. Economys fluctuate and so therefore does everything that gets sold. However as long as people are willing to shell out for sets, the re-sale market will continue.
My money is on Groot.
I've done some looking at older sets I'd like to get, including the mini modulars, and that set seems to be either holding pretty steady (I found one on eBay for $170 + $10 shipping) or growing insanely slow. Most of them I found fall between the $180-$200 range.
Plus I don't remember it being a super popular set. Wasn't it available to only VIP's for quite a while and then they decided to sell it to the general public due to slow sales numbers? I just don't remember it being that popular.
As for SW...it seems they will sell well no matter what. OT/PT/Clone Wars...especially if purchased on sale.
If anywhere else, I would wait for a promotion, if you think you can hold off, in the next few months.
I have a couple, they are pricey and rarely on sale. That tells me they may do very well if they disappear in the next few months (especially if right before The holidays)
I have a couple but definitely on my list to get a couple more. In the mean time I probably will be buying the Ferris wheel in June to get the Winter Soldier
These were $64 on Black Friday 2012 and 2013. In 2012, there was also an additional 10% off (or more if you were lucky with a scratcher), 5% VIP points, and buying two would yield a free holiday set. That works out to an adjusted cost of no more than $50. 200%+ return after one year is pretty decent to me.
I had always wished the TRU exclusive minies were the same scale as the mini modulars, was there ever a reason given as why they weren't?
Hmm yes,the lego world is indeed huge as I now slowly start to discover.
Am not stuck with any mini modular sets,i didn't even buy a single set when it was for sale at 65,something I now deeply regret. Not because I wanted it as an investment but because I do like the set a lot. But when it was for sale i was just exiting my dark ages and 65 seemed a lot for any set,that perspective has been changed a bit now though.
It is true that there are many adults that can afford to spend a lot of money on lego ,but there are also so many lego sets for sale already. You could easily spend 5k on existing sets without ever bothering with retired sets. And then I would also rather have 8 copys of detective office for example (to make one proper one) instead of having say 1 copy of market street or some other rare set. But this is something personal and I can imagine other people rather collecting the whole set instead of building moc,s with multiples of existing sets.
Starwars sets I don't see as to promising either,after the initial sets skyrocketed many investors caught on and I think there is a huge supply of the newer sets,both star wars and modular,sitting on the shelves of hoby investors. The older sets took of and went so high because almost no one was hoarding lego at that time.
Pet shop for example I can see on dutch ebay sites all the time for ~165 euro asking price,only 25 euro more then it was in the shop, Almost all the other retired sets like haunted house and townhall I see for sale regulary at somewhat inflated prices of 300-400,either from privare sellers as well as from webshops. When I look at the adds they do not seem to be rare sets. The mini modular set however I almost never see for sale on the web,besides that one time 1 month ago in a specialized lego shop. Maybe because its a bit older set.For that reason I think it is one of the rarer,and therefor more promising set but that's just me and I have to admit I am completely new to this. Maybe the set is as common as grand emporium,i don't know.
Well:wish you all the luck with investing. Even though I don't invest in lego myself (yet) you all do good work by keeping lego sets available for collectors for many years after they went out of production.
It was a response to the person saying that there where many adults who could easily spend 5k or 10k+ on lego and that therefor there was no bubble in the retired sets.
But someone who has 5k or even 10k to spend on lego does not have to spend that like 1000 on market street,2000 on taj mahal, 5000 on a millennium falcon and then 2000 for whatever sets currently available. If I look at myself and I would have 1000 to spend on lego right now then I would not buy market street or any retired set,i would rather buy 6x the detective office.(its by far my favorite set and I want build a huge moc with it on full minifigure scale so that's why). Even if I had 10k to spend on lego right now,then I would still not buy market street. Thoose prices are paid by people who can spend not 10.000,but 100.000 on lego.
I don't think that there is a bubble in the older retired sets,some of those sets are truly rare and there are people who can and will spend 100k on lego,but for all the sets later then ~2010-2011 I am quiet pessimistic and I don't see them ever going for significantly more then 2x original price (except for special collectible and rare sets).
The supply just feels very high and then there is also the supply of new sets every year that people spend a lot of money on. For an item to reach a truly high price the supply should be pretty low. I don't think the demand will ever be high enough to pay say 1k for a fire station or town hall. (bar inflation,its kinda funny that common sets bought in the 70,s and early 80,s are still worth their money or even more due to inflation). But then again,you don't need to make 100% on a retired set. If you have 1k sets and make 10-15 per set then that's also a nice sum of money.
Well this will be my last post in this thread since I don't want to spoil the fun for you all with my pessimistic comments. It is a very interesting market that sparked my interest,thats the only reason i posted. I do hope that I am wrong and that ssd will reach 2000 and townhall 1000:)
PS, there's nothing wrong with being a builder.
Noticed that this past season didn't quite "do the trick" for some sets like I was hoping. Dynamic Duo for example.
I think the Monster-themed CMF line coming out this fall will give the HH a nice bump.