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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 13,450
    I wouldn't consider the Carousel part of the amusement park theme. It's far more sophisticated and doesn't have any playability. Although in the Brickset database, they're all listed in the Fairground theme.

    Definitely think the Hot Dog Cart and Balloon Cart should be in that 'theme'.
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 372
    I'm already regretting not picking up the Balloon cart.  Think I'll have to bricklink one.  I don't care if I have the exact figures, so the pieces will be cheap.  Might have to make some extra balloons while I'm at it.  Now off to build my mixer while I dream of the Ferris wheel!
    Lego_Star
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    TheLoneTensor said:
    binaryeye said:
    I don't think an amusement park series will attract as many completionists as the modular series.
    I really think the opposite.  The appeal of these things is so damn enticing to the general public, even more so than the "doll houses" that are the modulars.  I also firmly believe that if there is anyone who is remotely interested in this theme, and they don't pick up at least one Mixer, they will be kicking themselves.
    The Mixer has been a slow mover.  An amusement park series is not going to outsell the modular series.  However, I do think the ferris wheel makes for an exciting centerpiece to a Lego city layout.  It should do well.  
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    I'm not sure how Lego would go about designing a roller coaster.  The piece count would be insane.  Easily 5,000 if done to scale.  Think of all the technic bits.  I could see them doing something like this:  


  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    There are documented portable coasters (thanks Internet), not huge, but could fall in line with the Mixer type of set.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,305
    Solarious said:
    Does anyone else predict the same people saying they hate the mixer and won't buy it will be the ones on page 600 of this thread saying they are super sorry they missed it?
    Nope, they'll be the ones saying they bought 50 of them.

    Although I still don't fancy it.
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 927
    Anyone know where the ghostbusters #21108 has vanished to off the lego website?
  • smartiepantssmartiepants Member Posts: 15
    stevemack said:
    Anyone know where the ghostbusters #21108 has vanished to off the lego website?
    its under £35 at Asda at the moment just bagged one before its to late
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2015
    mathew said:
    I'm not sure how Lego would go about designing a roller coaster.  The piece count would be insane.  Easily 5,000 if done to scale.  Think of all the technic bits.  I could see them doing something like this: 
    Knex does some decent coasters for $20 (including motor no less).  Lego could easily make a premium one for $200.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    stevemack said:
    Anyone know where the ghostbusters #21108 has vanished to off the lego website?
    I wouldn't be surprised to see the Birds #21301 gone in the next couple months as well.
    prevere
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    ^Crap. I do need to buy that, don't it. Thanks for the reminder.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 19,305
    edited May 2015
    Farmer_John said:
    stevemack said:
    Anyone know where the ghostbusters #21108 has vanished to off the lego website?
    I wouldn't be surprised to see the Birds #21301 gone in the next couple months as well.
    That one won't retire, it'll just migrate to warmer countries and come back next year.

    PS. I know robins don't migrate.
    juggles7VorpalRyuFarmer_Johnkhmellymel
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    Sure they do
    Robins migrate to where food is present though, not because of cold temperatures
    I see them around all winter but that's because I have feeders and shelter out for them
    Dougout
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2015
    CCC said:

    That one won't retire, it'll just migrate to warmer countries and come back next year.

    PS. I know robins don't migrate.
    As long as they doesn't migrate to my bonus room and melt this summer. :wink: 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    #21108 is missing from [email protected] US, even from searches, but I'm guessing that it is missing is due to a glitch on their website.Usually if it sells out you will see an entry with 'sold out' next to it
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2015
    ^I tend to agree with you...I had the same thought. I would still like to pick up a second one, but if I missed it then I that's okay.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    ...or a nefarious plot to run retailers out of stock, leaving them, the neighborhood bully, as the lone and final seller of the item.  Mwah hah hah
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited May 2015
    .
    VorpalRyuPenkid11
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    I have no desire for any of fairground sets, the mixer or the farris wheel...so that is good news for someone else! 
    Rsa33juggles7
  • caterham7caterham7 UkMember Posts: 406
    21108 was semi-searchable at 3am on 1st May on lego.com.

    Direct search for 21108 returned nothing, but ecto or ghostbusters returned some other search suggestions which led to the outer box area and 5 lego yellow bricks being visible - then that disappeared all together by mid morning and replaced with the product not found page.

    Retired sets don't always appear on the website as retired, sometimes they just remove them, and it looks like that's what has possibly happened here.


  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,315
    ^ Glad I got a few when I did.
    xiahna
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342
    brickupdate said:
    Brickaholic  Repeat after me: "there is no LEGO reseller investing bubble, there is no..." 

    :wink: 
    For us no, because we don't have enough breath :)
     
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    On brickpicker a reliable member actually called SAH in the USA and was told they had plenty of #21108 in stock and it's disappearance was a glitch. This was confirmed by others. I didn't call but I am assuming they were telling the truth. Its probably not done yet, but never a time like the present to buy one.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    Seems like TRU, Target and the other usual suspects still have them in stock too. Normally, if [email protected] is out, the others are too.
    pharmjod
  • BrikingBriking Dorset, UKMember Posts: 761
    Is the DS finally going?  Email from UK [email protected]: "Hurry! Limited availability of 10188 Death Star at discounted price!"
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    Again, it's a trap
    BrikingstevemackdougtsTXLegoguypreverebrokenapathy23khmellymel
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 927
    Lol that old question!
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    I'm increasingly feeling compelled to draw parallels between Mixer and Market Street.

    It was generally lacking the love of the community, largely because it didn't match in quality when compared to the ..... ( you already know all that how that one ended )

    A stitch in time  or $150 ,saves $900 ;)






    TXLegoguy
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    Draw parallels if you must; but you would destroy all for which they have fought, and suffered....Wait...sorry, I have Star Wars on the brain. Forgive me :)

    Seriously, you are mixing apples and hand grenades. You cannot compare Market Street with The Mixer. MS wasn't the first Modular Building and wasn't designed in house. MS also came out before the huge BOOM in Lego investors. We have had many Modulars to compare to Market Street and only one to compare to The Mixer and that one (The Ferris Wheel) isn't even out yet. My opinion on MS is that it still hideous. The Mixer is not hideous and is not poorly designed, it just doesn't have the "pizazz" as the Ferris Wheel or The Carousel, if you want to include that set.
    dougtspharmjodTheLoneTensorVortexBuriedinBricks
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Or the Roller Coaster. Oh wait, I'm getting ahead of myself...
    Pitfall69VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    Well, this IS the Predictions Thread ;)
    VorpalRyuFarmer_John
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    Pitfall69 said:

    Seriously, you are mixing apples and hand grenades. You cannot compare Market Street with The Mixer. MS wasn't the first Modular Building and wasn't designed in house. MS also came out before the huge BOOM in Lego investors. We have had many Modular to compare to Market Street and only one to compare to The Mixer 
    Agreed! Which is why , keeping in mind all those points, instead of $2800, I say $900 :)

    And this is of course considering the good probability that there may be another ride to follow next year.  

    Also, so, yes Ferris is not event out yet , but from we have seen , many would agree that it seems easily in the top 3 best large sets of the year, which in turn is getting us to talk more about Mixer rather than the Ferris. Isn't that really funny though , discussion aside :)

    I believe TH is only available because it was stored by lego investors only( during the height of the boom).  It's still and already touching, what 800 ?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    It's a hard commitment to stockpile lots of $150+ sets. It takes a lot of capital and space. Just a few of the reasons that prevent the masses from buying, say, 20+ of any large set.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,423
    It is hard to stockpile $150-200 sets for the average person. It takes a big commitment, both in money and space. If you have the money, you might not have the space. If you have the space, you might not have the money.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    So what's the speculation right now? Pet Shop or Mixer? Both in the same price category (though some got PS much cheaper).  Is it easier to see PS hitting $300-$400 or Mixer?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    edited May 2015
    TH was NOT hoarded much at all (mostly due to lack of sales on a 199.99 USD set), which is why it is selling for about 500 USD on eBay in the US right now (priced at 599.99 USD on Amazon). I can list a TH for 800, but very unlikely I'm getting that (at least on eBay).

    jcb193 said:
    So what's the speculation right now? Pet Shop or Mixer? Both in the same price category (though some got PS much cheaper).  Is it easier to see PS hitting $300-$400 or Mixer?

    PS hands down for me. While there could be a jump EOL for the Mixer, I think long terms always go with the Mod IMO. Plus you get far more value for the PS as well in term of parts.


    FollowsClosely
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    I like the Pet Shop, too...but for investment go with both.    I think the Pet Shop will have a greater appeal, but there will also be far more in the secondary market in the coming years.

    As for the mixer, I think less appeal & a lesser number of sets in the secondary, but for those who want it, a greater desire then those looking for the Pet Shop.  I think the Pet Shop is a more conservative investment, where as the Mixer may be the greater risk, greater reward type of set.
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    Here's my biggest problem with the Mixer: it looks like Lego can do better, and with the Ferris Wheel they've shown that they can. I'm skeptical about the Mixer's ability to climb to a decent price before a newer release in the theme obliterates it from memory. Being the first in the line (not counting Grand Carousel) can only take it so far. I'm trying to look at it from the perspective of 2-3 years post-EOL and wondering if it's even a 2x RRP set at that point.
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 1,001
    Now that obliterating from memory part might be just the thing it needs to drive it up in value.  Will there be less, like-new-in-box for the people who do want it?  Now you have me thinking....'cuz before I had no desire to buy any of the carnival themed stuff...actually I still don't,  but it is an interesting thought.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited May 2015
    To do justice to any Lego Carnival set, I think the price point has to be a minimum of at least $200. The Ferris Wheel is a great set, but I think the design criteria set at sub-$200. That resulted in a little cost cutting (e.g., missing outside rim on the wheel), but nothing that can't be fixed by purchasing a few extra parts. The Mixer was the initial release to test the waters and was probably price constrained to sub-$150. I think it still meets its intended objective well.

    My hunch is that if the Ferris Wheel has a popular reception, the next Amusement Park set my be even more serious and its price may be as high as $300. If that's the case, I predict a Roller Coaster will be released early next summer...and a nice one at that. And the good thing for TLG is that everyone interested in purchasing one will probably want a couple to make a huge ride.
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 988
    edited May 2015

    The DS has disappeared from the UK website... could this finally be the end? 

    It will leave quite a big gap in the SW range; it seems strange that the Sandcrawler is now the 'flagship' model both in terms of cost and part count.....I'm starting to miss it already!


  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,916
    A glitch I bet. Or they pulled it because of high demand/inventory check.

    A set as popular as the DS probably wouldn't just disappear. For as long as it's been out, it will likely be listed twice as long as sold out/retired on the site.
    madforLEGO
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Lobot said:

    The DS has disappeared from the UK website... could this finally be the end? 

    Lots of SW going this year to make room for the new sets. I hear Lord Mickey has commissioned a bigger and better DS :)
    FollowsCloselyxpokDougout
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    ^ touché to that ....

    On the other hand , no matter what one thinks that they are just done with purchasing more lego , that they have checked off all the priority sets off , take a deep easy breath... TLG throws a couple greats at you out of the blue , you can't resist it , and the cycle continues , it's relentless. :)
    Farmer_John
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    Recent examples for me , The Ferris Wheel , Kwik-e -mart and the Tumbler a lil earlier . Bolts out of the blue 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,933
    prevere said:
    A glitch I bet. Or they pulled it because of high demand/inventory check.

    A set as popular as the DS probably wouldn't just disappear. For as long as it's been out, it will likely be listed twice as long as sold out/retired on the site.

    I think LEGO tends to do this when they have sold their allotment of a set on sale. Then it shows 'sold out' or is removed, only to come back, either at normal price, or it stays gone until end of sale.
    FollowsClosely
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