Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

TheLoneTensor · April 2015

madforLEGO said:

Then again #10235 seems to be stuck under MSRP on eBay right now, which may not bode well for the Mixer when it EOL's (which I'm guessing will be this fall/winter).

That's probably because the market has been available on Amazon for $99 for a long time (and still is). I would think it would have to be well and truly sold out before we can draw parallels.

prevere · April 2015

Brickaholic said:

prevere said: Personally, if I can't get 2.5x over retail in 24 months after retirement, I'm not interested.

Not being funny but probably 20 x more people will be buying the same items as they were in the past, and in much larger quantities. Just my opinion, but I don't see many sets going 2.5 x RRP in the next 3 years from now.

I certainly agree with that. And that kind of statement is the heart of this thread. FW will ignite an interest in an Amusement Park series, and like the Winter Village series, despite high interest, there is enough demand to match or exceed it.

CCC · April 2015

Or is there ...?

Farmer_John · April 2015

It'll be interesting to see it TLG treats the Amusement Park theme like they do the Winter Village theme. If so, then get'm while you can.

prevere · April 2015

^Actually that is perfect. Amusement series would be available from April through Sept, while Winter Village from Oct to Mar.

brickupdate · April 2015

Brickaholic Repeat after me: "there is no LEGO reseller investing bubble, there is no..."

:wink:

piratemania7 · April 2015

I honestly don't get the skepticism towards the Mixer. It isn't the best but I also think it's a cool set with a lot of uniqueness to it. Even more so, now with this Ferris Wheel coming out people will likely begin to not care so much specifically about the Mixer and instead will just care to obtain the Mixer so they can keep a complete theme going. At any rate it's my two cents which really are worth zero.

Pitfall69 · April 2015

^I honestly don't care to start another theme. The mixer is ok and only marginally better with power functions added. The Ferris Wheel is much more impressive. The addition of the Ferris Wheel won't drive me to buy The Mixer.

dougts · April 2015

The problem with the micxer is that far too much of its parts/price budget was spent on the transporting vehicles. Yeah! More trucks....as if LEGO doesn't give usenough of those. But when you want to display your carnival, it's all wasted budget. How much more impressive could a $150 carnival ride/accessories have been if they didn't blow 1/3 of the budget on trucks

TXLegoguy · April 2015

Could the mixer be like the TH? Alot of people said it was to expensive or they didn't like it, but look at how good the TH is doing now.

ecmo47 · April 2015

^Only if it's discontinued unexpectedly.

Pitfall69 · April 2015

TXLegoguy said:

Could the mixer be like the TH? Alot of people said it was to expensive or they didn't like it, but look at how good the TH is doing now.

I don't think you can compare The Mixer with the Town Hall. The Modular theme is an established theme. The Town Hall may not have received the best reviews, but it wasn't the worst modular building. I think the price had a lot to do with the Town Hall's complaints. The price and the size of the box also had many people NOT stock piling the set. The Town Hall also retired out of order which threw people for a loop. People were busy buying whatever Modulars just retired and were available at the time thinking TH would be around. I think the big talk at the time was "get your hsnds on Grand Emporium before it's too late", so people were buying that instead of worrying about TH.

fixitbobby · April 2015

^ or too busy F5'ing trying to get a Haunted House (that there was no way Lego would retire before Halloween...) to notice Town Hall slip away.

Plell · April 2015

^Haunted House didn't retire before Halloween... It just sold out. That's really what we're all trying to predict here, isn't it? Predicting retirement dates isn't difficult; predicting how soon before that date a set will sell out is.

TXLegoguy · April 2015

@Pitfall69. I know what you are saying. I was just noticing similar talk about The Mixer like the Town Hall, about it being to expensive or they didn't really like it.

TheLoneTensor · April 2015

Plell said:

^Haunted House didn't retire before Halloween... It just sold out. That's really what we're all trying to predict here, isn't it? Predicting retirement dates isn't difficult; predicting how soon before that date a set will sell out is.

You're applying differentiation where it really doesn't make much difference for the discussion though. Most here only really care about when something is "no longer available through normal retail channels at MSRP."

madforLEGO · April 2015

Farmer_John said:

It'll be interesting to see it TLG treats the Amusement Park theme like they do the Winter Village theme. If so, then get'm while you can.

My presumption, so take it for what it is for, is that the Mixer is gone by end of the year with Ferris wheel being their main 'fairground' set to sell. At least if the WV line is any indicator.

Mixer is a nice set, but like others have noted, pricey. I think it will go up, but not by leaps and bounds, even if it sells out by end of the year.
I will say though fans are illogical at times. TH does have one thing in common with the Mixer, it is pricey in production and people are complaining they do not want one due to that point.
Now TH is very pricey, but I'm not sure how the Mixer will do when it ends production. I think it would have done much better being 149.99 USD AND having power functions included though.

juggles7 · April 2015

Speaking of no longer available through normal retail channels, I see Tower Bridge is out of stock at the usual retail sites. 'Bout time! [email protected] still has them, of course.

Plell · April 2015

TheLoneTensor said:

Plell said:

^Haunted House didn't retire before Halloween... It just sold out. That's really what we're all trying to predict here, isn't it? Predicting retirement dates isn't difficult; predicting how soon before that date a set will sell out is.

You're applying differentiation where it really doesn't make much difference for the discussion though. Most here only really care about when something is "no longer available through normal retail channels at MSRP."

Very true - the distinction's not relevant to this discussion. But in plenty of conversations I've had in person with customers, I'm always asked point-blank when a set will retire, and yeah, I can give you an exact date, but that information won't really be useful if it's been sold out for four months by then. So really I guess I just needed to vent about that.

Pitfall69 · April 2015

Received my PS today. The box is the same size, but there are some changes to the what's on the box. Nothing really to report, sorry. I don't think I will opening mine up to find out if there were any parts or color changes.

ColoradoBricks · April 2015

@Pitfall69 .. it grew by 0.5".. that is something to brag about :blush:

Adzbadboy · April 2015

My Pet Shop never said in the instructions to add the flowers in front of the balcony nor did it included them...

Pitfall69 · April 2015

ColoradoBricks said:

@Pitfall69 .. it grew by 0.5".. that is something to brag about :blush:

Yeah, looks like the PS took Viagra.

iamterry · April 2015

I bought a PS last october; one different I noticed is that the 1x4 fences with 2 knobs
were actually 1x4 fences with 4 knobs (both the black and the white ones)

DadsAFOL · April 2015

If my new pet shops aren't taller I'm returning them

fixitbobby · April 2015

Plell said:

^Haunted House didn't retire before Halloween... It just sold out. That's really what we're all trying to predict here, isn't it? Predicting retirement dates isn't difficult; predicting how soon before that date a set will sell out is.

I was actually going to add that caveat inside parentheses in my original comment, but thought everyone would understand.. :)

I would like to get the Mixer and the Ferris wheel, but after making sure I have one copy of all the current modular (except DA), my wallet has been hurting.

juggles7 · April 2015

Hey, @Plell, you wrote that "predicting" a retirement date was easy, then wrote that you could provide the "exact" date of retirement of a set (selling out early notwithstanding). Oh, really? What is the exact retirement date of the Palace Cinema? Tower of Orthanc? Simpsons House?

Pitfall69 · April 2015

...I hear crickets

AMuller396 · April 2015

Hi,

I was looking at the first 10 Minifigure Series and noticed some huge price differences between the series for sealed boxes. Looking through BL avg selling price, here are the ones I looked at

Series 1 = $888.31 - pretty obvious, since its the first one
Series 2 = $391.45 - Shouldn't this be higher since its the second one?
Series 3 = $324.94
Series 4 = $250.55
Series 5 = $280.55
Series 6 = $233.40 - cheapest one... why?
Series 7 = $309.97 - Beats Series 4-6 and almost on par with 3... why?
Series 8 = $486.31 - Wow beats all the series to date except 1 why?
Series 9 = $314.35
Series 10 = $315.65

Whats up with all these price differences, any input? I have a sealed 6 and 7. 7's cheapest on BL is $400 while 6's cheapest is $258 thats a huge difference.

Pitfall69 · April 2015

Series 6 is uninspiring. Series 7 has the Bunny Suit guy and there are only 3 to a box. Series 8 has a great selection of minifigures. I'm sure people were/are stocking up on Football Players and Cheerleaders. I'm sure the Fairy is popular, but I don't know why ;)

Series 2 was produced in mass quantities compared to Series 1. Although the Spartan is popular, I think the whole series is lacking. I don't know if this has anything to do with anything, but you could still scan the barcodes and it was easy to cherry pick boxes.

Plell · April 2015

Farmer_John · April 2015

I actually thought Series 2 was one of the better CMF Series to be released...I know our entire family got into that particular series. But I agree that they were widely available too, and that should have a negative impact on their aftermarket price.

I would expect that most people generally prefer to only purchase the entire set (not an entire box) if they're collectors. Collecting sealed boxes would seem to be more for a special subset of collectors, so not as high in demand (with a few exceptions). With that said, it would probably be more profitable in most "cases" (pardon the pun) to open the boxes, sort out the complete sets, and sell the three complete sets in SEALED condition. The remaining 12 CMF sets from the box could be sold as SEALED individual items. The key here ensuring your ability to identify each packet is up to snuff and keeping them sealed. Sealed CMF sets will generally provide a greater ROI.

Pitfall69 · April 2015

@Farmer_John , that may have been the case for Series 2 when it was released, but as it stands now, the minifigures aren't that great.

My assessment:

Mexican - We got another in TLM Series
Spartan - Awesome!! Savior of Series 2
Ringmaster - Blah
Witch - Exact copy in Halloween Accessory set
Vampire - Monster Fighters sets
Traffic Cop - Blah
Jungle Explorers - Adventurers Sets. Blah
Lifeguards - Ok. A plus for being a female.
Mime - Ok
Weightlifter - Awful
Pop Star - Blah. Female a plus
Skier - Ok
DJ - Ok
Karate Master - Team GB devalues this
Surfer - Ok
Pharaoh - Great Minifigure

Farmer_John · April 2015

^So what you're really saying is that Series 2 was so awesome that TLG remade several of the figures for other sets. I couldn't agree with you more! :wink:

Pitfall69 · April 2015

^I'm just saying that most of the minifigures are not unique.

jcb193 · April 2015

Any thoughts/rumors on this year's May the 4th?

Dawn · April 2015

@jcb193 have you tried the May the 4th Thread :)

http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/19308/may-the-4th-2015#latest

MODVLEX · April 2015

^Hey, this thread is for general discussion, right? ;)

CCC · April 2015

Lifeguards - Ok. A plus for being a female.

She's gone up a little in value since the male one was released too.

Farmer_John · April 2015

There are a lot of complaints about the Mixer, but if a Roller Coaster is released next year there will be a lot of people trying to pick up the Mixer in the aftermarket (assuming it's EOL'd in the next 12 months). See also the Town Hall...

binaryeye · April 2015

I don't think an amusement park series will attract as many completionists as the modular series.

madforLEGO · April 2015

Farmer_John said:

There are a lot of complaints about the Mixer, but if a Roller Coaster is released next year there will be a lot of people trying to pick up the Mixer in the aftermarket (assuming it's EOL'd in the next 12 months). See also the Town Hall...

Not certain that TH is a great analogy, other than it may go sooner than people are expecting. I think the Mods are one thing, but not sure if the fairground sets are a 'modular' status in the hearts of AFOLs, at least not as much as mods are.
I think they will likely rise, but how much soon after EOL and to what end?

Farmer_John · April 2015

I'm not trying to compare the Amusement Park theme to the modular theme...apples and oranges.

The TH was initially launched with much fanfare and excitement, but over time the comments turned overwhelmingly negative. When the TH suddenly disappeared there were a lot of complaints about having no warning, even though it had been out well over two years.

My point is that the Mixer seems to have a lot of negative comments now too; however, I expect there to be a "fair" (pardon the pun) number of complaints when it does eventually go...especially as more sets are added to the Amusement Park theme.

luckyruss · April 2015

It does make the carousel look like the "Christmas train" of the WV series. Carousel has gone up a lot in the last 6m or so. Toy shop, as the first official set in the line, has obviously done pretty well to date, pending this year's release of course. It is plausible the mixer could follow a similar trend.

prevere · April 2015

A roller coaster done correctly with a supplemental track pack would be drive tremendous interest to an Amusement series. It also makes all the sets around it that much more popular too.

Now, with the Ferris Wheel launched, this is THE set everyone is waiting for.

Lobot · April 2015

#10218 PS back in stock in UK [email protected]:

http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/Pet-Shop-10218

bobabricks · April 2015

prevere said:

A roller coaster done correctly with a supplemental track pack would be drive tremendous interest to an Amusement series. It also makes all the sets around it that much more popular too.

Now, with the Ferris Wheel launched, this is THE set everyone is waiting for.

I feel like if this theme becomes as popular as the modular series, the mixer and Ferris wheel will become the next green grocer/cafe corner.

TheLoneTensor · April 2015

binaryeye said:

I don't think an amusement park series will attract as many completionists as the modular series.

I really think the opposite. The appeal of these things is so damn enticing to the general public, even more so than the "doll houses" that are the modulars. I also firmly believe that if there is anyone who is remotely interested in this theme, and they don't pick up at least one Mixer, they will be kicking themselves.

TechnicNick · April 2015

^ Agreed. I don't have any Modulars - if I want a building I'll moc one. But the Mixer's great and very well designed and I'll be getting the Ferris Wheel on day one. Being a Technic geek at heart, I like my Lego to move!

binaryeye · April 2015

bobabricks said:

I feel like if this theme becomes as popular as the modular series, the mixer and Ferris wheel will become the next green grocer/cafe corner.

^ Or Grand Carousel is Café Corner and there is no Green Grocer.

TheLoneTensor said:

I really think the opposite. The appeal of these things is so damn enticing to the general public, even more so than the "doll houses" that are the modulars.

You could be right. It will be interesting to see what happens with the Mixer when it's discontinued.

Completionist collectors aside, I don't think the amusement park series will appeal to the casual AFOL as much. The modulars are designed to be viewed primarily from the front, they all have the same footprint, and they're visually appealing even when stuck on top of an armoire or bookshelf. It's easy to display them and it's easy to add more modulars to the display. The amusement park series really needs to be on a table and interacted with to be fully appreciated (speaking mostly of the Mixer, here), the sets don't have an intrinsic display layout, and it's difficult to guess how much more space might be needed when new sets are released.

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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