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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Yes, @TheLoneTensor.  I would think so.

    The company seems to want to keep resellers from stocking up at the last minute on soon-to-go sets by having them available only through them, and nowhere else.  Since they have banned a few people from Shop at Home, they think they can better control things by making buyers purchase there.   They think they can keep the banned few from picking up too many sets.  Silly them!

    This doesn't always work out, though.  Sometimes Amazon takes a huge shipment of sets (like the Creationary Game and Winter Village Market) and it takes a long time for them to sell out.  Meanwhile, everyone else sells out, including Shop at Home, leaving Amazon as the lone seller of soon-to-retire sets.  But aside from a few exceptions, it does seem that Lego is trying to be the last seller to have large exclusives.

    Will be interesting to see if they position themselves to be the last and lone seller of the Simpson House.  I bet when it comes back in stock around September, all the other retailers will be out of them, but I bet they'll keep the next production run all to themselves.  Just betcha! 






  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited April 2015
    ^I don't think this is as much about individual resellers as it is about corporate resellers. For example, we've all noticed over the past year that companies like Target, etc. are starting to hold sets back for themselves to sell AFTER the product has EOL'd. They can then mark up the prices and basically play the game that individuals do...only with deeper pockets. I think this is what Lego now appears to be addressing. Individuals generally have to pay full retail and are small potatoes anyway.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Interesting, @Farmer_John.  I respectfully disagree that retailers are holding back sets for sale post-EOL.  They're not set up for that.  I'm in the US, if that's relevant.  Amazon, with rare exception, sticks to the manufacturer's retail price, as does Wal-Mart, as far as I know.  (Amazon does overcharge for current $9.99 sets, I'll grant you that, but it's because of the free Prime shipping that they must provide members.)

    Target is a story all its own, but it seems to me that it's their price-matching software that's determining Target's prices, rather than them intentionally marking up older sets.  What I mean is that when Amazon offers sets at a discount, Target usually matches that price.  But, the price-matching seems to work in reverse as well.  Numerous times I've seen sets, especially modulars or expensive sets go out of stock at Amazon, and, of course, they're then offered by third-party sellers, often at a significant markup.  Right away, due to price-matching software, the ones that Target have on hand are marked up and match the price of the lowest third-party seller at Amazon.

    Next time you see a Tower of Orthanc, Palace Cinema, or the like, overpriced at Target, compare Target's markup to the offerings of third-party sellers at Amazon, and you'll see that Target is just price-matching Amazon.  It's not due to "holding back", although I admit it looks that way.  They're often the last to have many large sets, but it's only because the last few that have get marked up (say) 50% overnight, so become very slow movers.  Another example of this: TRU doesn't hold back on anything, but their overpriced inventory lasts and lasts just because it's expensive and smart shoppers buy there only as a last resort.

    I'm not sure why Lego are maneuvering to make themselves the last seller of certain sets.  But I don't think the reasons I've read here so far, are convincing.









    FollowsClosely
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    The few Lego specialist toy stores here seem to get word from the Lego reps that a set is being retired & poof, none of that item on their shelves. Weeks or months later, bam, "oh, we managed to get a third party consignment of that in stock, but we're making next to nothing on them...." & twenty or thirty sets are on the shelf.

    What business wants to sell retired sets for $160.00 while making at most around $10.00-$15.00 a set?

    Most of these guys are selling the CMFs for a dollar or two above retail too, the one closest to us keeps telling their loyal customers they're sold out everywhere else (yet the Myer down the road has three open boxes), get them quick, cause once they're gone, that's it ... Until, I guess, he manages to get another miraculous third party consignment like the series 12 & 11 CMFs he's now slugging $8.99...
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Is this US or UK, @VorpalRyu?  Sounds like a so-called comic or collectible shop.  That's a struggling business model that the internet is killing off.  Brick and mortar stores have rent/lease, power bills, red tape, etc.  High overhead. There's probably no way they could offer you a good deal on anything.  Glad I'm not in their shoes. 
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I would love to have a Brick n Mortar store full of new and old Lego sets and parts. A one stop shop for EVERYTHING. Alas, the overhead and the internet killed thst dream many years ago :(
    madforLEGO
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    Local to me, Adelaide, South Australia. These toy stores have branded themselves as Lego specialists, as in that they sell nothing other than Lego products. These stores are surviving mostly, from what I have observed, via a fiercely loyal customer base that don't tend to shop elsewhere. Many I suspect are so loyal, because of the whole support local business buzz &/or the way these guys paint it that they are the best place to buy Lego.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited April 2015
    "Surviving mostly" doesn't sound all that stable to me.  I understand though, given the markup is so thin on new sets.  Like Pitfall said, with the internet, that concept is so tough to handle.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,318
    The issue is, these guys are deluding their loyal customers into thinking that they're on to a good thing buying at their stores. The owner of the store down south was quick tell me, eBay is all fake Lego, Amazon is über expensive & Lego.com shipping charges are totally insane. The sales pitch on why him over the local department stores was equally crazy. When I mentioned my online dealings, including Lego.com, he got a nasty tone in his voice, saying I've obviously been very lucky so far... Funniest was his claim he was the cheapest 'safe' place to buy 'genuine' Lego in all of Adelaide (much of it was over RRP).
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,916
    I looked into the "Bricks and Minifigs" model of franchising and quite honestly have no clue how it is profitable enough to actually be a viable business. 
    weevin
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    Pitfall69 said:
    I would love to have a Brick n Mortar store full of new and old Lego sets and parts. A one stop shop for EVERYTHING. Alas, the overhead and the internet killed thst dream many years ago :(
    Ive kicked the idea around to actually opening such a store, but just do not have the time to really put a good effort in. It would be something I would do as a past time if I ever came into a lot of money where I did not really need to work anymore.
    Pitfall69khmellymel
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    edited April 2015
    It would make a nice tax shelter ;)
    wagnerml2
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 373
    So when are the new Star Wars sets supposed to be out?  Will the 2014 sets (with Darth Vader on the box) be likely to retire or at least lose space on the shelf in most retailers at that point?  I know people have started speculating that there will be less OT sets out once the new movies start, which makes me think the OT sets that will retire this year will be worth picking up at clearance, or even at close to retail towards the end of the summer.   Thoughts? 
  • 77ncaachamps77ncaachamps Aspiring Time Traveler Stuck in the West (US)Member Posts: 2,442
    edited April 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    I would love to have a Brick n Mortar store full of new and old Lego sets and parts. A one stop shop for EVERYTHING. Alas, the overhead and the internet killed thst dream many years ago
    Unless you own your brick and mortar store outright or sell out of your house (garage) /property, overhead is going to kill it. Storage would be troublesome enough. Though I like Bricklink, sometimes immediacy for MOCers is more important than paying a couple of cents less per piece.

    Also, the time it takes to sort through bulk lot buys needs to be factored in as a cost.

    Selling Lego in BM setting would be a almost a 24/7 situation.

    Furthermore, people are so used to the "Amazon" convenience: items ordered online and delivered to their door. Getting people to drive to a store for parts is much harder now. The store would have to offer something for people to linger about, talk, etc. to feel more like a viable part of their community.
    CCC
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    I don't think you will be seeing an ISD again anytime soon, but I would figure Lego would keep the AT-AT out longer to coincide with the UCS Hoth Base coming out. I would think that most of the sets that are out now would be good to hold onto.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    At first we all groaned about yet again another wave of rehashes. But if you consider that this may well be the last substantial OT/PT sets, then TLG was doing us a big favor by properly redoing the full line like Jabba sets, an all out Endor, excessive Hoth offerings, etc.

    But it does appear that some of the new film's vehicles are just the same from OT, so we most likely will get another TIE Fighter rehash but with Sequel Trilogy characters instead.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    edited April 2015
    At first we all groaned about yet again another wave of rehashes. But if you consider that this may well be the last substantial OT/PT sets, then TLG was doing us a big favor by properly redoing the full line like Jabba sets, an all out Endor, excessive Hoth offerings, etc.

    But it does appear that some of the new film's vehicles are just the same from OT, so we most likely will get another TIE Fighter rehash but with Sequel Trilogy characters instead.
     I think LEGO may be moving back to movies 1-3 sets as many are discontinued right now.
    The new sets for the Epi 7 though have made me think maybe I should hold on to the last Falcon that was out as it will be OT Vs the Epi 7 set. Wonder if we are going to see another 'Hutt' in the next series as well

    Oh and here is a chuckle from [email protected] US, check out the price: http://shop.lego.com/en-US/Jabba-s-Palace-9516?fromListing=listing


  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,444
    ^Was anyone ever able to grab any JP's at that price?
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 7,064
    edited April 2015
    ^don't think it was ever available at that price. It just dropped after it was sold out
    DadmadforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^Was anyone ever able to grab any JP's at that price?

    ^don't think it was ever available at that price. It just dropped after it was sold out
    That is why I said it is a chuckle. Heck check out the Town Hall and Grand Emporium 'prices' as well. Again not as silly as the jp, but still... It is like LEGO is saying 'Not only did you NOT get one, but look, it was at an absurdly low price as well'.
    But none of these are there at this time of course.

    Oh and when did Jabba's Sail barge sell out?
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    The Sail Barge sold out at USA Shop at Home on January 2, 2015.  That was the 2013 version.  There was an earlier version that most thought was a better set. 
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,361
    Personally, I think there is someone at the [email protected] website that enjoys messing with investors and those weary of the EOL of certain products.
  • SumoLegoSumoLego New YorkMember Posts: 14,361
    I don't think people at Lego Retail Stores, the [email protected] or the large resellers know the EOL until corporate discreetly takes them out of the next production run.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    It seems like targeted sets (exclusives more or less) that have retired in the Nov/Dec timeframe, sometimes now are retiring in the Aug/Sep timeframe. HH comes to mind as one that everyone was in a mad dash to get last Aug as supply vanished quickly and unexpectedly. Thoughts on potentials to go early this fall?
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 824
    ^This is my concern. I usually only am able to get a few BIG sets come Christmas time. Needless to say there may be some sets I want that will clear out well before then.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    edited April 2015
    prevere said:
    It seems like targeted sets (exclusives more or less) that have retired in the Nov/Dec timeframe, sometimes now are retiring in the Aug/Sep timeframe. HH comes to mind as one that everyone was in a mad dash to get last Aug as supply vanished quickly and unexpectedly. Thoughts on potentials to go early this fall?
    Sounds a bit redundant and maybe repetitive of me, but Pet shop and Santa's Workshop are my picks for 'early EOL' this year, well maybe not early EOL but they will run out of existing stocks by the fall I think. I think the Fairground mixer has a chance as well depending on when the expected Ferris Wheel is released. Almost forgot the VW camper as well I think that is on borrowed time. Simpsons house is on my bubble It could go once Kwik e mart is out
    preveregrounded
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited April 2015
    It's wishful thinking to think Fairground Mixer or Simpsons house are gone anytime soon. They have a long shelf life ahead. I bet the house outlives the Quik-E-Mart. 
    dougts
  • FatMattFatMatt USMember Posts: 502
    edited April 2015
    There is no reason why Santa's Workshop would sell out by fall. They will at least produce enough to go into the holiday season, and likely at least close to Christmas, if they don't decide to run it another year.....Just my opinion of course.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    The best bet for early departure is probably the one with the most rumors of low stock.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Ma1234 said:
    It's wishful thinking to think Fairground Mixer or Simpsons house are gone anytime soon. They have a long shelf life ahead. I bet the house outlives the Quik-E-Mart. 
    Fairground Mixer should be around a while, though I don't care for it much, either to build or resell.  Simpsons House could be the next HH, gone earlier than expected.  But I admit I lack the courage of my convictions.  Even if you have storage space and ready cash, it's hard to stock up on a $200 set that's only been out 14 months. 
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    FatMatt said:
    There is no reason why Santa's Workshop would sell out by fall. They will at least produce enough to go into the holiday season, and likely at least close to Christmas, if they don't decide to run it another year.....Just my opinion of course.
    I would agree with you, Matt, but there's an interesting wrinkle here:  Shop at Home -UK has been showing that set as "retired product" rather than just "sold out".  But, if forced, I would still agree with you.  Just a fluke, probably, or maybe it's finished in the UK, but not in the US.  I would advise picking up a couple, regardless. 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    Ma1234 said:
    It's wishful thinking to think Fairground Mixer or Simpsons house are gone anytime soon. They have a long shelf life ahead. I bet the house outlives the Quik-E-Mart. 
    Its not wishful thinking, but I would bet on it instead of against it. I just do not see why LEGO would have two of the fairground sets out at the same time (as both will likely be 149.99 USD), same with the Simpsons house and Kwik e mart as both are 199.99 USD. The fairground sets are not Mods, they are special Creator sets and a bit into the unknown into what the production run will be. Seeing as LEGO can easily allow a creator 'Winter Village' set to be produced for one Year to 1 1/2 year or enough for stocks to run through the second year (and those are mostly pretty popular sets too), I can see LEGO running these for one year / 1 1/2 year as well. Also, how many people seem to not like the Fairground Mixer? I think TH shows what can occur with sets that may not be hugely popular during their run (unless of course TH was always going to only be a 2 year run), especially if this will be a series of sets like Winter Village. Ferris Wheel will likely come out and a slight overlap will occur (EOL will likely occur when Ferris Wheel is released and then they will let stocks run out is my guess) then the Mixer could be gone. I think the same is very likely for the Simpsons house when the Kwik E Mart appears. But hey people can roll the dice, I just would not be making assumptions with these lasting a long time is all.
    juggles7 said:
    FatMatt said:
    There is no reason why Santa's Workshop would sell out by fall. They will at least produce enough to go into the holiday season, and likely at least close to Christmas, if they don't decide to run it another year.....Just my opinion of course.
    I would agree with you, Matt, but there's an interesting wrinkle here:  Shop at Home -UK has been showing that set as "retired product" rather than just "sold out".  But, if forced, I would still agree with you.  Just a fluke, probably, or maybe it's finished in the UK, but not in the US.  I would advise picking up a couple, regardless. 
    I heard the same argument from folks on this forum how LEGO must be making more Haunted house sets as it was gone before Halloween and it was 'perfect' for Halloween. When Santa's Workshop is gone, it is gone. As it is showing as 'retired' outside of the US I would say that is a good sign as well. This is another set where people in the US may not be thinking much about it but will be 'shocked' when it is gone for good.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    You make a good case for your views, @madforLEGO.  But if you can't see how they could keep 2 large Simpsons set out at once, or 2 large fairground-type sets out at once, just look at the Volkswagen Camper.  A lot of us thought it would end as soon as the mini Cooper came out.  They do a damn good job of keeping us guessing, and I'll bet there are a lot, and I mean a lot, of Campers in resellers' closets.  
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    juggles7 said:
    You make a good case for your views, @madforLEGO.  But if you can't see how they could keep 2 large Simpsons set out at once, or 2 large fairground-type sets out at once, just look at the Volkswagen Camper.  A lot of us thought it would end as soon as the mini Cooper came out.  They do a damn good job of keeping us guessing, and I'll bet there are a lot, and I mean a lot, of Campers in resellers' closets.  
    Ahh, but the VW Camper was supposed to retire last year, but it was reportedly extended because it was selling well (likely partly due to resellers buying a lot of them). At 119.99 USD, I can see more people buying that set, which I think also has a lot more popularity than a Simpsons house IMO, partly because of price and partly due to the popularity of VW camper van as a whole (i.e. outside the LEGO community). It also takes up a smaller footprint on a mantle or area of display.
    I'm fairly certain that VW is far more popular than the Mixer, Simpsons house, or even the Cooper. Also less expensive than the Mixer or Simpsons house as well.
    Are people buying tons of the Mixer at 149.99 USD and Simpsons house at 199.99USD? I doubt it. Before someone brings up the DS, it is SW. SW is FAR more popular than the Simpsons at this point. DS is also supposed to retire this year (extended with the VW into this year) as well, but we will have to see that one to believe it though.

    So could LEGO keep all of them out? Absolutely, but I think, aside from Mods, we have also seen LEGO not have two of a similar set available for a long time together as well (Winter village sets for the past 3 releases I believe, and also Creator Trains, I think Tower Bridge and Sydney Opera House being out together are due to stocks as I think the Tower Bridge was supposed to be on its way out last year as well).
    If the Mixer and House are not selling hugely I doubt LEGO will make a large number of them before EOL. Also in the case of the Simpsons HBouse I doubt they are going to make a huge run in case they sit around as I doubt LEGO wants to have to eventually discount them to rid themselves of them ala  Kingdoms Joust set.

  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452

    What we are seeing that is different than any time before is... the manufacturer can't keep the large sets in stock.  Aside from the Volkswagen Camper, Tower Bridge, Ewok Village, and SOH, almost all of the remaining big-ticket sets are hard to find.  It's very difficult to find a Red Five X-Wing, a Pet Shop, Palace Cinema, Tower of Orthanc, at times even a Parisian Restaurant.  I hope it's regular folks buying all these, rather than resellers, but more importantly...

     What will the company do?  If their sales targets continue to be hit (and surely their sales targets are being hit since they can't keep the sets on shelves) wouldn't they continue to produce those same sets until demand falls off?  It depends on many things, but I would think the company's emphasis on developing new themes and producing new sets is going to be tested.  The company can keep churning out "old" sets until people stop buying them or they can discontinue them (to replace them with new themes and sets) while demand is still high.

     If 2014 was any indication, it looks like they'll go the latter route, and keep introducing  new product, and of necessity, retiring older sets sooner rather than later.  Other forum members have said this, and I have come to agree.  But as for the demand for current sets going through the roof... what are the implications there?  Was the increased demand for current sets caused by the early departure of AA, HH, R2, and others?  And will the increased demand for current sets prompt the company to slow their introduction of new sets and extend the shelf life of current sets until the demand for them at least slows a little? 




  • 77ncaachamps77ncaachamps Aspiring Time Traveler Stuck in the West (US)Member Posts: 2,442
    juggles7 said:

     If 2014 was any indication, it looks like they'll go the latter route, and keep introducing  new product, and of necessity, retiring older sets sooner rather than later.  Other forum members have said this, and I have come to agree.  But as for the demand for current sets going through the roof... what are the implications there?  Was the increased demand for current sets caused by the early departure of AA, HH, R2, and others?  And will the increased demand for current sets prompt the company to slow their introduction of new sets and extend the shelf life of current sets until the demand for them at least slows a little? 




    No. They'll just make more.

    And that's what makes people a bit fearful.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Winter Soldier is a June U.S. giveaway, right? If so, I think what we saw that retired early last year, equivalently might retire EVEN EARLIER with a superior giveaway like that. He's going to be gone ultra quick. I think a lot of people will be using him for a discount in buying X-Wings, Pet Shops, etc. That could be enough to knock out remaining stock of a few key sets.
    pharmjod
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    prevere said:
    It seems like targeted sets (exclusives more or less) that have retired in the Nov/Dec timeframe, sometimes now are retiring in the Aug/Sep timeframe. HH comes to mind as one that everyone was in a mad dash to get last Aug as supply vanished quickly and unexpectedly. Thoughts on potentials to go early this fall?
    Pet Shop, Volkswagen Camper, Tower Bridge, Tower of Orthanc, and the cursed You-Know-Who (DS) are all living on borrowed time.  Everyone knows this, but that can become a problem.  In the financial world, they call it a "crowded trade". 
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    ive stocked up on everyone one you've mentioned except for #10188 (i have a couple because everyone else has a load)!

    they should be all the exclusives that go this year though! I sense the camper may stay based on big sales/popularity however!
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,145
    I'll admit I quickly skimmed through the last page or two here but it seem like there has been some lovely discussion. My two cents, literally just two cents, would be regarding the fairground mixer. I don't see this new "fair" theme doing what the likes of the modular theme does with a new release every year and 3 or 4 different models out at a time. I think if the Ferris wheel does come to fruition the mixer may stick around for a few months or even half a year but I think when the Ferris wheel is getting the attention of TLG it will divert all attention away from the mixer and once production runs out it runs out.
    madforLEGObobabricksMordoor
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    stevemack said:
    ive stocked up on everyone one you've mentioned except for #10188 (i have a couple because everyone else has a load)!

    they should be all the exclusives that go this year though! I sense the camper may stay based on big sales/popularity however!

    So has every man and his dog. TH's and HH's were the sets to stock up on. Sometimes the wise move is to do nothing. Sitting on what you have can sometimes be the smart move.
    And who has a load of DS's? Most bailed out on them, or that's the hand they're showing anyway. I don't know of anyone on here who's openly saying they're sat on a pile of them. Perhaps that's the set to stock up on?
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^"It's a trap!!!"
    juggles7
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 10,229
    I think as many have said they are 'out' of holding large numbers of DS, my sense is that many still are. The suspicious part of me also thinks that many in forums trumpeting the need to sell off now, to get what you can back, are also keeping many of theirs. I just do not see these people selling them early to lose money on them, even if they are taking up space. Even if they got them on sale and sold those off to make something, why are they would they want to 'lose money' re-buying them at a later date at RRP?
    However, even if there are those stocking these up, I have a feeling there will likely be a feeding frenzy to 600-700 USD immediately once the DS is EOL, especially if it occurs a month before Christmas.

    As for VW Camper, I'm guessing it will hit about 200 USD immediately after EOL (especially if before Christmas) due to people needing them for Christmas and speculators buying them at that price hoping they will go up, then level off there for a bit, then climb again around the holidays next year again (kinda like the Maersk train and Horizon Express seem to be doing).

    Of course another extension could throw a wrench into the works.
    TheLoneTensor
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,923
    Making a couple hundred on any jumbo-sized set seems so easy until it actually sells, you're too busy to ship, and you don't have a proper box.
    BumblepantsTheLoneTensorlego007Dougoutsidersdd
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I don't see the Camper Van being extended due to popularity.  If it's so popular, why is it available everywhere, not going out of stock, like just about every other big set is? I don't see them hitting $200 immediately, given how long they've been out, although such an outcome would be fine with me!  I think it will take a lot longer.  Frankly, the market for the item surprises me.  That's an old vehicle, with the last produced in the late 70s, a very long time ago. The box art is absolutely fabulous, though, I will say that. 
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 816
    I think as many have said they are 'out' of holding large numbers of DS, my sense is that many still are. The suspicious part of me also thinks that many in forums trumpeting the need to sell off now, to get what you can back, are also keeping many of theirs. I just do not see these people selling them early to lose money on them, even if they are taking up space. Even if they got them on sale and sold those off to make something, why are they would they want to 'lose money' re-buying them at a later date at RRP?
    However, even if there are those stocking these up, I have a feeling there will likely be a feeding frenzy to 600-700 USD immediately once the DS is EOL, especially if it occurs a month before Christmas.

    As for VW Camper, I'm guessing it will hit about 200 USD immediately after EOL (especially if before Christmas) due to people needing them for Christmas and speculators buying them at that price hoping they will go up, then level off there for a bit, then climb again around the holidays next year again (kinda like the Maersk train and Horizon Express seem to be doing).

    Of course another extension could throw a wrench into the works.

    Yes, sure there will be some holding them. But I believe that some offloaded 2 years ago or so and have no intention of rebuying. I certainly did. They've just wrote it off because they've become a pain in the arse. To sit on quantities of them for such a length of time is crazy.  
  • LobotLobot UKMember Posts: 1,009
    juggles7 said:
    That's an old vehicle, with the last produced in the late 70s, a very long time ago. The box art is absolutely fabulous, though, I will say that. 

    It was still being imported new into the UK until last year (link below); and there's a '64 plate (~6 months old) in my town so I'm not too sure where you got the 70's from...?

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2537353/Last-delivery-brand-new-VW-campervans-arrives-UK-Brazil-factory-stops-production-iconic-vehicles.html

    Personally I'm not that fussed about them, but they do have a massive following especially amongst the surfing community.

    Milne44
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 934
    Dad said:
    stevemack said:
    ive stocked up on everyone one you've mentioned except for #10188 (i have a couple because everyone else has a load)!

    they should be all the exclusives that go this year though! I sense the camper may stay based on big sales/popularity however!

    So has every man and his dog. TH's and HH's were the sets to stock up on. Sometimes the wise move is to do nothing. Sitting on what you have can sometimes be the smart move.
    And who has a load of DS's? Most bailed out on them, or that's the hand they're showing anyway. I don't know of anyone on here who's openly saying they're sat on a pile of them. Perhaps that's the set to stock up on?
    I have several of each TH and HH, i meant future ones! I have more funds available of late to have bigger stock piles fortunately! I just dont want to stock up on #10188 until it shows real signs of retiring and post retiring gains can be roughly gauged!
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    juggles7 said:
    I don't see the Camper Van being extended due to popularity.  If it's so popular, why is it available everywhere, not going out of stock, like just about every other big set is? I don't see them hitting $200 immediately, given how long they've been out, although such an outcome would be fine with me!  I think it will take a lot longer.  Frankly, the market for the item surprises me.  That's an old vehicle, with the last produced in the late 70s, a very long time ago. The box art is absolutely fabulous, though, I will say that. 
    The Haunted House & Town Hall were both available everywhere, then within about a week they weren't available anywhere.  #10220 is a winner of a set now, and will have a fantastic aftermarket life.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    prevere said:
    Making a couple hundred on any jumbo-sized set seems so easy until it actually sells, you're too busy to ship, and you don't have a proper box.
    You also forgot the inevitable DS casualties that happen from moving those huge, heavy stored boxes around and dropping one, or them succumbing to the legendary rat poop.
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