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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • chuckpchuckp NYMember Posts: 684
    edited April 2015
    With the new deadpool movie in the pipeline for 2016 can i ask everyones opion and maybe ask you all to look into a crystal ball whether  we can expect another deadpool in the future.i have the original  #6866 set bnib so should i sell or wait ?

    While #6866 has not crashed, it has not really gone up in cost either last I checked. I also would imagine the Deadpool figure will be making a come back when the movie comes out. Also Joker's value will be tested when that TRU/Target Joker Bumper car poly appears in the US (US at least, not sure about other countries) and will likely be RRP of 3.99 or 4.99 USD.
    If the April Fool's video is to be believed, I would think LEGO will steer way clear of anything related to Deadpool during the movie's release window since it will be R-rated. If you are Deadpool fan and haven't seen it yet, it is a must watch. 

    https://games.yahoo.com/news/ryan-reynolds-announces-deadpool-rated-213800406.html
    VorpalRyu
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 861
    prevere said:
    I think any new DS will be at least 1,000 pieces smaller, yet have the same # of figs, and will cost more per pieice. With this scenario, there will probably be a small market for some who want the largest version made, making this set still desirable to some degree.

    And it sounds like EP7 will have a Death Star 3.0, so you know what that means.
    Whoa! Spoilers much?!
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,237
    ^^ DEADPOOL APRIL FOOLS!!! Frakking awesome! Love it!
    chuckpReesesPieces
  • 1x11x1 Member Posts: 116
    It is just a rumour about a new DS. It's now being discussed like its definetly happening. Surely there won't be a DS in ep7 anyway. It'll be pretty lame if the climax of the film is the rebels narrowly managing to destroy an even bigger Death Star. Again.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited April 2015
    1x1 said:
    It'll be pretty lame if the climax of the film is the rebels narrowly managing to destroy an even bigger Death Star. Again.

    If George Lucas was writing Ep. 7, then I wouldn't be surprised. But on the positive side, the CGI would be great! Good thing he didn't write Ep. 7, otherwise I could just go watch Ep. 1-3 and get the gist (bad actors and dumb storyline).
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I just want to know how, when they took out the one in Jedi, Wedge was able to apply 2D cardinal directions inside a sphere enough so as to be able to identify which tower was the North tower.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Dumb stories, bad acting, but great special effects.  I think you pretty-well summed up modern movies, @Farmer_John
    Farmer_JohndougtsourmoneydiaryFollowsClosely
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I just want to know how, when they took out the one in Jedi, Wedge was able to apply 2D cardinal directions inside a sphere enough so as to be able to identify which tower was the North tower.

    Forgive me, @TheLoneTensor , but you're reminding me of a scene in Galaxy Quest.

    Jason Nesmith: There is no "quantum flux". There's no "auxiliary". THERE'S NO ****** SHIP. You got it? 



    Sethro3CapnRex101
  • mrbigz8657mrbigz8657 Member Posts: 21
    Hi. I am new and I never posted before. I always read the great advice on here though. My question is regarding the Pirates chess set. Would you guys and gals consider holding on to it seeing how there is the rumor that these first sets came with an error or would you treat it the same as anything else in your collection. I've never heard of too many sets with errors that were then pulled and sent back for a fix. Any ideas. Thank you
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    ^I see no desire for the first batch as opposed to the corrected ones. It is simple instruction errors and not actual figures or parts so chances are it will sell just the same as the others once the set gets in stock again. Aftermarket value of messed up ones will not be better than corrected.
    ourmoneydiarydougtsPitfall69legofanfromleedsFollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Hi. I am new and I never posted before. I always read the great advice on here though. My question is regarding the Pirates chess set. Would you guys and gals consider holding on to it seeing how there is the rumor that these first sets came with an error or would you treat it the same as anything else in your collection. I've never heard of too many sets with errors that were then pulled and sent back for a fix. Any ideas. Thank you

    Short answer, this error will be meaningless in the aftermarket.

    Thing is, Lego is unlike coins and such, where errors play a significant role in value because of the rarity.  Most aftermarket Lego buyers want the set because they couldn't afford it, or just weren't interested in it while it was out, and now are prepared to get it.  They likely want to build it rather than keep it locked away in some vault to continue appreciation (though not always).  As such, an error could actually play against you because if it's severe enough (and the pirate chess one is not), it could hinder the buyer building the set, which would be really bad.  Take the "bad batch" of Fire Brigades as an example.  That was clearly an erred set, and ended up with one bag missing and double of another.  Not many people are going to be too happy spending $350 on that, only to open it and find it unbuildable.
    Pitfall69BACbrixourmoneydiarymadforLEGO
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    That said, having one in hand to sell now might provide a decent return. Then you can pick one up later when they become available again.
    BACbrix
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,370
    "A Pirate Chess in hand is worth 2 in the Death Star."
    BACbrixbobabricks
  • mrbigz8657mrbigz8657 Member Posts: 21
    Thank you for the replies. Your opinions are appreciated. Might just go ahead and trade them in for a detective building and pay the difference
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,565
    edited April 2015

    BACbrix said:
    I thought that we (UK) got advertising saying that the mission ends in march.
    Well the U.S. for sure is ending on the 25th

    25 pages and six weeks past the end of the mission, yet the exosuit is still available in both the UK and US. It's bizarre that there is a limit of 1 per customer on the US site (5 on the UK site). It looks like their decommissioning advertising didn't get resellers to buy in.
    BACbrixFollowsCloselymadforLEGORonyarmakbobabricksAdzbadboy
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    It looks like the Black Pearl #4184 and the QAR #4195 are essentially at parity now. I guess it's likely due to the BP including the Davy Jones and Maccus minifigure. I would much rather have either of those two minifigs than the Angelica or Blackbeard minifigs included with the QAR.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,802
    It looks like the Black Pearl #4184 and the QAR #4195 are essentially at parity now. I guess it's likely due to the BP including the Davy Jones and Maccus minifigure. I would much rather have either of those two minifigs than the Angelica or Blackbeard minifigs included with the QAR.
    Not to mention the Black Pearl simply appears in more movies than the Queen Anne's Revenge. So even as a smaller vessel, it has more nostalgic value from a fan perspective.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    CCC said:

    BACbrix said:
    I thought that we (UK) got advertising saying that the mission ends in march.
    Well the U.S. for sure is ending on the 25th

    25 pages and six weeks past the end of the mission, yet the exosuit is still available in both the UK and US. It's bizarre that there is a limit of 1 per customer on the US site (5 on the UK site). It looks like their decommissioning advertising didn't get resellers to buy in.
    If only they'd include a free Chima or Hoth Han with an Exo-Suit purchase then maybe I'd be bite.
    CCC
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Shop at Home watchers, there are some sets that have been "sold out" almost 6 months, but there's no "retired product" label attached, just "sold out".   Is this business as usual, or something unusual? 
  • BrickarmorBrickarmor USAMember Posts: 1,257
    No updates on [email protected]?!! Business as usual. However they did change #71006 from "ships Sept 1" to TOOS. 
  • xpokxpok PolandMember Posts: 31
    Its still available in Europe.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants Sofia BG/Dallas TXMember Posts: 5,692
    I wonder if they are just holding back on the Simpsons House so it will be in stock when the Mart comes out
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I doubt they are holding back on anything. 
    madforLEGOTXLegoguy
  • MugenPowerMugenPower Member Posts: 443
    juggles7 said:
    Shop at Home watchers, there are some sets that have been "sold out" almost 6 months, but there's no "retired product" label attached, just "sold out".   Is this business as usual, or something unusual? 
    The Mars Rover has had the "Sold Out" label for far longer than that.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Somewhere in the depths of Lego are crates of Mars Rover and Town Hall.
    VorpalRyuTXLegoguybobabricksAdzbadboy
  • DAVEmoonDAVEmoon Member Posts: 44
    I often wondered if someone rang Lego that spends about a grand or 2 a month,and said listen I am sick of these pickers holding cases of TH GG and CC,and I need them. would Lego find any in the depths of their warehouses,or just say "get lost"
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    edited April 2015
    I think they'd think you had 18 months to buy it at retail and kindly say no
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,565
    They'd also remind you that they only sell direct to consumers.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    DAVEmoon said:
    I often wondered if someone rang Lego that spends about a grand or 2 a month,and said listen I am sick of these pickers holding cases of TH GG and CC,and I need them. would Lego find any in the depths of their warehouses,or just say "get lost"

    They'd probably find you annoying and a little weird.  Especially if you brought up Green Grocer and Cafe Corner.
    Dad
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    DAVEmoon said:
    I often wondered if someone rang Lego that spends about a grand or 2 a month,and said listen I am sick of these pickers holding cases of TH GG and CC,and I need them. would Lego find any in the depths of their warehouses,or just say "get lost"
    Bitter much?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited April 2015
    DAVEmoon said:
    I often wondered if someone rang Lego that spends about a grand or 2 a month,and said listen I am sick of these pickers holding cases of TH GG and CC,and I need them. would Lego find any in the depths of their warehouses,or just say "get lost"
    A third option would be to simply direct them to this thread so they could pick them up at 2-3X like everyone else. :wink: 
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,370
    Hahahahaha. If that guy is buying $1,000-2,000 a month, he should have CC, GG and TH in less than 3 months ;)
    madforLEGODad
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    @DAVEmoon that's a legit query, reason is because I've asked. And yes I'm a chap that was chucking $1k-$2K per month at the time. But it didn't matter to them how big of a buyer, they simply said "aww we're sorry to hear that, but unfortunately we are completely sold out of that set (AT-OT dropship at the time I was asking). We recommend you visit a site called Bricklink.com."
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,301
    DAVEmoon said:
    I often wondered if someone rang Lego that spends about a grand or 2 a month,and said listen I am sick of these pickers holding cases of TH GG and CC,and I need them. would Lego find any in the depths of their warehouses,or just say "get lost"

    Yes, because pickers 'holding' these 'cases' are what is causing them to rise in price and be hard to find. If not for these 'pickers' these sets would all likely be around the cost of a Sealed box UCS Falcon now.

    Like it or not, these 'pickers' holding cases' are the reason why people can still find a Sealed box Cafe Corner, or Green Grocer, at all. (remember these are about 8-9 years old now, which is also why the price has risen).

    As a matter of fact, TH is a good example of what occurs when people do not stock up on a set to sell later. It is about 500 USD on eBay now (about 6 months, or maybe less, since it was 'sold out'), and could be around 750 USD by end of this year/beginning on next at the rate it is rising.

    I'm not sure why people are reviled for having enough forethought to buy multiples of a set that was readily available for at least 2 years and on sale many times as well (at least when it comes to CC and GG)?
    (and no, Research Institute and Exo suit do not count here, these sets mentioned here were sets that were out for a while; I do agree that those trying to corner a market are over the line IMO).


    @DAVEmoon that's a legit query, reason is because I've asked. And yes I'm a chap that was chucking $1k-$2K per month at the time. But it didn't matter to them how big of a buyer, they simply said "aww we're sorry to hear that, but unfortunately we are completely sold out of that set (AT-OT dropship at the time I was asking). We recommend you visit a site called Bricklink.com."

    I do find it a bit amusing that LEGO supposedly hates the idea of reselling but has no issues sending folks to a site like bricklink that is FILLED with resellers when someone asks for a set that is EOL.
    RonyarFollowsCloselyFarmer_JohnBumblepantsdougtsvitreolum
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    To add to what @madforLEGO said, who doesn't have to pay more than RRP for any collectible item after it's no longer available? And if a person has two or more copies of a specific item, why should they be compelled to sell their extra item(s) at RRP or even at all? To use a bit of hyperbole, does that mean if I need a kidney transplant then someone should be compelled to sell me their extra kidney? If not, then what's the difference? If so, then we live in a really messed-up world!
    FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,370
     To use a bit of hyperbole, does that mean if I need a kidney transplant then someone should be compelled to sell me their extra kidney? If not, then what's the difference? If so, then we live in a really messed-up world!
    Apparently, you haven't read the Affordable Care Act ;)
    BumblepantsFarmer_JohnFollowsCloselypharmjodJP3804
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    edited April 2015

    I get the feeling someone has either vastly overestimated the necessity of LEGO sets or vastly underestimated the necessity of kidneys.


    ...well, he did say it was hyperbole.

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    ^ It's @Farmer_John 's thread. He can do what he likes.
    PlelldougtsPitfall69Penkid11GothamConstructionCo
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,836
    It looks like the Black Pearl #4184 and the QAR #4195 are essentially at parity now. I guess it's likely due to the BP including the Davy Jones and Maccus minifigure. I would much rather have either of those two minifigs than the Angelica or Blackbeard minifigs included with the QAR.
    I remember getting QAR just for parts to use in a couple of MOCs. I'm kicking myself for doing that now. D:
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,301
    edited April 2015
    It looks like the Black Pearl #4184 and the QAR #4195 are essentially at parity now. I guess it's likely due to the BP including the Davy Jones and Maccus minifigure. I would much rather have either of those two minifigs than the Angelica or Blackbeard minifigs included with the QAR.
    I remember getting QAR just for parts to use in a couple of MOCs. I'm kicking myself for doing that now. D:
    I have one of each left as I wanted them for myself, but tempting to sell them as I have more personal interest in city/town/mods and as the next movie is being filmed and who knows what LEGO will do when the next movie is released. Judging by their apparent laziness with the final Potter line that redo's are likely.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    Dad said:
    ^ It's @Farmer_John 's thread. He can do what he likes.
    Not really...I can probably list a dozen posters that have added more to this thread than I have. And with that said, I'm off to sell a kidney... :wink:
    VorpalRyubobabricks
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    Sorry to go off topic a bit here but I figured this would be the best place for advice.

    I just saw a Star Destroyer at Goodwill for $60
    Score! Right?

    The thing is I didn't buy it for a couple reasons...

    1) The box was absolutely smashed and had several large, bright yellow "Salvage" stickers on it (what does that even mean?)

    2) There were a half dozen $10-15 sets there also. All of them had clearly and blatantly been ripped open by fig scavengers. Bricks litterally feel all over the floor when I picked up the boxes. Doesn't instill a lot of confidence in me that the salvage box is actually anywhere near complete.

    3) I completly ditched my StarWars Empire Airbase project in order to focus more on making a Marvel themed modular city.

    Should I go back and buy it tomorrow?
    What's the likelihood that someone would want it if I verified the contents?

    Or should I just buy it for parts?
    It's all boring grey but that comes up a lot in MOCs for sure.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    ^In those cases, it would all depend on what's left in the box and what their condition is. I often purchase partial sets (without minifigures) just to build something I want to build without all the expense. Depending on which set it is, partial sets sometimes increase over time too (e.g., #6866 Wolverine's Chopper Showdown without minifgures purchased for $8.00 shipped).
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    Solarious said:
    Or should I just buy it for parts?
    It's all boring grey but that comes up a lot in MOCs for sure.
    As mentioned, it greatly depends on what is left in the box. Also, which Star Destroyer it is. For $60, I'd buy a mostly complete #10030 for parts, but probably not a mostly complete #75055.
  • SolariousSolarious Kalamazoo, MI, USAMember Posts: 317
    It's the newer one still in stores
    75055 right?
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    #10218 pet shop, TOOS in [email protected] UK
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited April 2015
    ^Yep...I have a feeling the Pet shop will go EOL in the next few months. Just a hunch...
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    That's not what I'd call a "hunch".  As of May, Pet Shop will have been out for 4 years.  It should go, and is widely expected to go.  On the other hand, your idea that the Tumbler will get a short production run, now that is a "hunch". 

    Remember how GE came back in stock several times and there were several last chances to pick up at least a single copy?  I would expect the same from PS.  But don't count on it.  If you have none, you'd better put it at the top of your buy list.  I also think it'll soon be gone, despite its current popularity.  


  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    They are still making batches of PS. I would guess they stop in. 3Q15 and then sell residual until they run out.
    juggles7
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Simpsons House and Santa's Workshop are both "temporarily out of stock" at Shop at Home USA.  I remember Architecture Studio was TOOS for a long time.  What else was given that dubious label?  Exo-Suit?  Research Institute?  The Tumbler?  More likely than not, and based on past performance, "temporarily out of stock" items could be not available for quite a while (several months) but then come roaring back with a vengeance.  It happened with Exo Suit and to a lesser degree with the others I mentioned.  Could be! 

    Since you cannot add one to your cart, in effect they are not even taking pre-orders for these 2 sets.  Perhaps all their stocks and stashes are depleted and rather than just crank out a few to be snapped up immediately, and have the item going in and out, in and out, of stock, they want to get a little bit ahead, and at least get several thousand produced before putting them back up for sale again.  I don't think we've seen the end of either set.  They could stay out of stock for months, but  there will likely be a huge supply when they do return in stock.  Just guessing! 




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