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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,306
    A quick check of [email protected] shows there are several larger sets on the verge of going sometime this year:

    #10234 - Sydney Opera House
    #10236 - Ewok Village
    #10214 - Tower Bridge
    #10240 - Red Five X-Wing Starfighter
    #10237 - Tower of Orthanc
    #10218 - Pet Shop
    #10220 - VW Camper Van
    #71006 - The Simpsons House (expected ship date of September 1st)

    If I was guessing, I would say that seven of the eight sets listed above (including Simpsons House) will be gone by year's end and at least five will be gone by summer's end.
    Just curious, how did you come to the conclusions based on a look at [email protected]?
    I mean I know the Pet shop, VW Van, Tower Bridge are long in tooth, but is there something that appears on [email protected] (besides that silly 'retiring soon' tag) that is showing you these are going to be gone soon?

    No...nothing specific on [email protected] As you said, these are all primarily long in the tooth or have other indications such as availability 6 months out (Simpsons House), etc..

    I can't image the SOH, or TB are selling that great based on their price and availability. With the recent or near-term releases of the UCS Slave 1 and UCS Tie Fighter sets, there are just too many UCS (or large SW Sets) available in general. Plus Red Five has hit the magic time period when UCS sets usually go. TLG is drawing down its Hobbit and LotR theme, and in fact the ToO is the last remaining LotR set available. Pet shop will likely go by October when TLG gets prepares to launch the next modular. The VW Camper is an interesting set and more of a question mark. I can see it being an AFOL favorite, but it's also been out a LONG time.  I would say the EV is probably the least likely of the list above to go this year.

    These would all be on my near-term purchase list if I was worried about having to pay the exorbitant aftermarket prices.
    Gotcha, Ok. I was not trying to be snarky if it came off that way, just was wondering. I agree with the list for the most part. I think SOH is around for another year at least though. While it is likely not a great seller, I cannot image Tower bridge has been after the first 1 year it was out either, but here it is about 6 years later (albeit at a lower cost than SOH). I believe someone said TB, VW van, and DS are all slated to go this year.. actually I think someone said DS may live through '16 as well. But I think even the stores are getting sick of it being available at this time (it is a shelf hog).
    Pet shop may or may not go if the rumor about LEGO selling them for a year exclusively before EOL has any truth to it.
    Simpsons house I see going as well by end of year at latest. I just do not see LEGO selling both the House and Kiwk E mart at the same time (also means you will have those who will desperately want a Simpsons house if they get the Kiwk e mart). I believe Ewok Village will be around until this Hoth playset that is on its way apparently. Tower of Orthanc is likely gone soon due to loTR being done. Red 5 being gone would be a but of surprise as well as didn't it just come out? And seeing it constantly on back order tells me it is a good seller.
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Okay I literally just bought the Death Star (Picture on brag thread) I am debating this. I have Ewok village a death star. I am only building one and not the other. I have no preference and no biased towards either one. Which one would make more sense to leave sealed? Thanks
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    Red 5 being gone would be a but of surprise as well as didn't it just come out? And seeing it constantly on back order tells me it is a good seller.
    Red Five will have been out two years this May 4th.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    ^I think everyone has learned to never count the DS out. While it is a neat set, as others have said it's a bit dated.

    There will likely be replacements for these big sets when they go, but I haven't heard any indications of what those will be. TLG is pretty good about keeping the new sets under wraps (if they choose) and then just releasing them out of thin air. It will be interesting to see what those set are. It could be an interesting 2nd half of the year.
  • henrysunsethenrysunset Member Posts: 231
    edited April 2015
    The architecture series is great, but I am probably biased since I am writing an upcoming book about this topic called "The LEGO Architect".


    Several people have commented on the selection of buildings in the series, and the fact that many of them seem obscure to a general population.  Even the LEGO group understands this- that's why the "Architecture" series is actually two sub-lines. 

    There is the "Landmarks" Series which focuses on buildings of regional and historical importance.  (Trevi Fountain, Lincoln Memorial, Eiffel Tower, The White House, UN Headquarters. Leaning Tower of Pisa.)

    The second series is the "Architect" Series, and focuses on buildings which are important to architectural history and designed by some of the most prominent architects of their time.  There is a huge Frank Lloyd Wright bias in this collection, likely attributed to his huge appeal as the world's first "Starchitect." (Fallingwater, Robie House, Guggenheim Museum, Imperial Hotel are all based on his designs.)  

    Beyond Wright, the "architect" series includes the following important buildings by other architects:
    • Villa Savoye, architect Le Corbusier.
    • Sydney Opera House, architect Jorn Utzon.
    • Farnsworth Hosue, architect Mies van der Rohe.
    • Rockefeller Center, architect Raymond Hood.

    This split between "Landmarks" vs. "Architect" series does reveal some quirks... Sydney Opera House and Rockefeller Center are really iconic landmarks in their own right.  Likewise, The UN headquarters was famously designed by Oscar Niemeyer w/ some help from Le Corbusier, but is identified in the Landmark series.

    My favorite small models in the series are UN HQ, White House, Big Ben, Empire State, and Seattle Space Needle.  All of the larger models are great.


    I think the only real useful way to look at the series as a whole is based on sales potential.  The Frank Lloyd Wright models have the strength of his architectural fame as a selling point.  Most of the others are popular landmarks, and will sell well to someone visiting that city or that specific visitor's center.

    It is for those reasons that I expect Farnsworth House (1hr from Chicago) and Villa Savoye (1hr from Paris) which are both excellent models are probably not bestsellers.  Both are relatively seldom visited attractions in minor cities or towns.

    ---tom

    BACbrixsidersdd
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    Interesting.So if you had to pick say 5 sets that in your opinion would do the best for future investment what would they be?
  • groundedgrounded Central OhioMember Posts: 73
    I recently picked up a Fairground Mixer since I think its very possible this set gets EOLed to make room for the Ferris Wheel. With all the hoopla around Star Wars later this year, it probably makes sense for Lego to have a lot of large (read: very profitable) sets around for the Holidays.

    With that being said, I also bought an Ewok Village because I'm terrible at predictions :wink:
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    edited April 2015
    To @grounded 's point - before Town Hall retired, people seemed to not like it. Because of that, very few stocked up on it, it retired early, and now it's hot in the aftermarket. Fairground Mixer seems to have the same potential. Few seem to love it; everything else seems like a more "obvious" bet for aftermarket success, and the big key where will be when LEGO retires it. Esp considering this could be the first set in a new yearly recurring theme, that would give it additional oomph in the aftermarket. 
    TXLegoguymadforLEGOmidwestguy
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    romanstar said:
    Interesting.So if you had to pick say 5 sets that in your opinion would do the best for future investment what would they be?
    This is like asking a stock broker what are the best stocks.  Btw, did your nephew ever get his R2D2?
    VorpalRyu
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    romanstar said:
    Interesting.So if you had to pick say 5 sets that in your opinion would do the best for future investment what would they be?
    This is like asking a stock broker what are the best stocks.  Btw, did your nephew ever get his R2D2?
    I agree. There are different sets for different types of investors; just as there are different stocks for different types of investors. 
    VorpalRyu
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    romanstar said:
    Interesting.So if you had to pick say 5 sets that in your opinion would do the best for future investment what would they be?
    This is like asking a stock broker what are the best stocks.  Btw, did your nephew ever get his R2D2?
    Yes he did thanks. :)  BTW if i was buying stocks id go to a stockbroker.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^Are they sealed?
    Yup.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    So in seeing the BTTF set do well quickly, my thoughts turn to GB Ecto.

    Ecto by itself should do well. But would Lego pick up a GB line in a few years when the new movies launch? Or not, because it's committed to Scooby for the next 2-3 years for a couple waves?

    I have no doubt Scooby will be hard to come by when it launches, IMHO.
    VorpalRyu
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    The Mystery Machine is likely going to be the perpetually-sold-out one, and I imagine it's right up there with the DeLorean and Ecto-1 for a lot of people. The mansion will be popular too, but I just don't see super high demand for the rest.
    VorpalRyu
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,086
    edited April 2015
    ^ Just like the new Hulk Buster set  (#76031) which is the latest set where production is not meeting demand. 

    BP is showing an average price of $51.46 for NIB.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    ^Just wait until the movie comes out.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    edited April 2015
    ecmo47 said:
    ^ Just like the new Hulk Buster set  (#76031) which is the latest set where production is not meeting demand. 

    BP is showing an average price of $51.46 for NIB.
    To your point, my kids just purchased the Hulk Buster set to split between them; one got the Hulk and the other got the Hulk Buster. They absolutely love this set!!!

    For some reason they are not big fans of the new Hulk though; they like the older green Hulk better. I had a sealed old green Hulk figure stashed, so I just swapped out the new one for the old one. Pesonally, I kind of like the newer Hulk myself and I think they'll start liking it more after the movie is released.

    prevere said:
    ^Just wait until the movie comes out.

    Yep...this set is going to do really well; especially if they keep releasing Iron Man and Avenger's movies (which they will). I expect it to be out for at least another 2-3 years. TLG would be nuts to EOL this one too early.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452

    prevere said:
    I guess I'll part out my old Hoth base sets. Been holding onto those and the Battle of Endors for way too long.
    If you are thinking that their value is about to fall because a larger, similar set is about to be released... It may or may not happen that way.  When Ewok Village was released, I expected that the aftermarket prices for the small set #7956, SW Ewok Attack would plummet.  But, instead, the prices on the small set continued their slow climb.  Maybe the $250 price tag on the EV is just too steep for some, but they will pay top dollar for the minifigures included in the smaller set.  Or could it be that the small set actually makes for a decent add-on or compliment to the EV?  Now that I wouldn't know...

    The release of a new, similar item is usually bad news for the value of an older set.  But things are never so simple, are they?  The new Cantina includes a landspeeder, I notice.  But I also see it's a different color than the previous version.  There will be those who will want to buy the old version and add the additional, different-colored landspeeder to their new Cantina, I would think.  That kind of thing supports or even increases the value of the old set.  Just felt like posting something today, @prevere.  I bet you know all this anyway. 
    VorpalRyumadforLEGOprevere
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,306
    edited April 2015
    juggles7 said:

    prevere said:
    I guess I'll part out my old Hoth base sets. Been holding onto those and the Battle of Endors for way too long.
    If you are thinking that their value is about to fall because a larger, similar set is about to be released... It may or may not happen that way.  When Ewok Village was released, I expected that the aftermarket prices for the small set #7956, SW Ewok Attack would plummet.  But, instead, the prices on the small set continued their slow climb.  Maybe the $250 price tag on the EV is just too steep for some, but they will pay top dollar for the minifigures included in the smaller set.  Or could it be that the small set actually makes for a decent add-on or compliment to the EV?  Now that I wouldn't know...

    The release of a new, similar item is usually bad news for the value of an older set.  But things are never so simple, are they?  The new Cantina includes a landspeeder, I notice.  But I also see it's a different color than the previous version.  There will be those who will want to buy the old version and add the additional, different-colored landspeeder to their new Cantina, I would think.  That kind of thing supports or even increases the value of the old set.  Just felt like posting something today, @prevere.  I bet you know all this anyway. 
    Agreed. Generally I think it matters how expensive the new set is compared to older sets AND if there are any figures that are only in that smaller, or earlier, set which could also impact the prices.
    I have a bunch of the old hoth #7749 sets with the tauntaun. Can only hope those will increase in price. Maybe it is wishful thinking, but trying to dump all of those sets into an already saturated market is not going to be any better IMO. Same with the #6857 as Jokerland is coming out.
    I am guessing the Hoth UCS is going to be at least 250 like the village (to be honest not really certain that the UCS Ewok Village is really worth that 250 USD to begin with), so I can see those still either buying the smaller sets instead or to augment their larger UCS build.
    As always for any LEGO set, you are also less likely to get burned if you got the set on a large discount.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    It depends if the corresponding small set is compatible or duplication to the large one. There's saturation and then there's star wars, which is at an entirely different level.
    pharmjod
  • legofanfromleedslegofanfromleeds legoland...England Member Posts: 368
    edited April 2015
    With the new deadpool movie in the pipeline for 2016 can i ask everyones opion and maybe ask you all to look into a crystal ball whether  we can expect another deadpool in the future.i have the original  #6866 set bnib so should i sell or wait ?
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    I have heard rumors of a Death Star for 2016. Plausible or unrealistic? I literally bought it two days ago and haven't opened yet so I am wondering if the new Death Star will kill the value of the old one.
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    Did you take note of the day on which that rumor was posted
    BACbrixFollowsClosely
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    Will the rumored 2016 edition of the Death Star have a special designation: "The FU Resellers UCS Edition"? 
    BACbrixVortexjuggles7pharmjodAdzbadboyericbchuckp
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    It was on Just2good YouTube lol
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    There are few givens in this sport, but, yes, a new DS would definitely kill the value of the old.  Sounds like you've had nothing but grief and buyer's remorse since the day you ("literally") bought it.  Return the damn thing! 
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,403
    BACbrix said:
    I have heard rumors of a Death Star for 2016. Plausible or unrealistic? I literally bought it two days ago and haven't opened yet so I am wondering if the new Death Star will kill the value of the old one.
    My suggestion would be to return it and purchase two UCS Tumblers. The Tumber won't be out nearly as long a the DS, is unlikely to ever be remade, and will probably garner a better overall return on your investment.
    brickupdate
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    ^Good point. I bought it for almost the sole purpose to resell mostly because I am not a fan of the set but it is so extensive I thought this set has to do good in AM. Decisions to make but hopefully the rumor is not valid... BTW is released on April 2nd so I already considered that :)
  • xpokxpok PolandMember Posts: 31
    Sometimes April 2nd is still April 1st ( time zone).
    I woudl like LEGO to make really big DS. Big like 20k pieces :).
    BACbrix
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Oh boy. I guess I have to keep it. I asked my son, "Hey Thomas, is it okay if daddy sells the Death Star to get a Tumbler and Ewok Village I mean that way you get two big sets!"
    "No daddy I want the deaf star!" He cannot say death quite yet lol. I guess deaf star wins because my son wants it. It will be his early May 15th b day gift. Whatever I guess no aftermarket price buys a happy child.
    BrickDancerxpokRainstorm26Zon
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    edited April 2015
    Thers just something about the DS thats stopped me buying it.Too many uncertainties and such a high price is stopping me i reckon.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,306
    edited April 2015
    With the new deadpool movie in the pipeline for 2016 can i ask everyones opion and maybe ask you all to look into a crystal ball whether  we can expect another deadpool in the future.i have the original  #6866 set bnib so should i sell or wait ?

    While #6866 has not crashed, it has not really gone up in cost either last I checked. I also would imagine the Deadpool figure will be making a come back when the movie comes out. Also Joker's value will be tested when that TRU/Target Joker Bumper car poly appears in the US (US at least, not sure about other countries) and will likely be RRP of 3.99 or 4.99 USD.
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    brickupdate said:
    Will the rumored 2016 edition of the Death Star have a special designation: "The FU Resellers UCS Edition"? 
    Isn't that what the current #10188 already is for Resellers? Can you imagine some folks have been sitting on stacks since as early as 2011-2012 thinking, "It's gotta go this year, it's so dated that it just has to." 
    VortexLegoboy
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    No, I can't imagine folks sitting on stacks of DS's, given the company's ridiculously lax return policy.
    Legoboypharmjod
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Good point on the return policy. But others have mentioned having to slowly pare there stacks down at a slight loss, LFT comes to mind as one saying such.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    I think any new DS will be at least 1,000 pieces smaller, yet have the same # of figs, and will cost more per pieice. With this scenario, there will probably be a small market for some who want the largest version made, making this set still desirable to some degree.

    And it sounds like EP7 will have a Death Star 3.0, so you know what that means.
    Legoboydougts
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,306
    edited April 2015
    romanstar said:
    Thers just something about the DS thats stopped me buying it.Too many uncertainties and such a high price is stopping me i reckon.
    I'm sure people said that about the UCS Falcon as well (I know I did).


    I think DS will compare with the Falcon in many ways.
    If they make another it would likely be smaller for about the same cost, if not more, than the existing one (as LEGO has shown a willingness to make smaller SW sets but yet raise the cost as long as people still buy them)
    So while they could redo a DS, or DS like sets, there will still be those that want this one as a display piece I think.
    I think the assumption also is they make another minifig scale DS.
    Tthey could do another micro scale one for DS II, which has been long since discontinued. Or a Micro scale one of DS, which means the minifig scale one will still likely go for a good amount after EOL.
    Even if there is a DS 3 then again it could be micro scale or have different things going on at the DS location, and likely will not be a copy for copy of this DS.

    goshe7
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,125
    I think they're mostly done with large non-playsets. EV, sand crawler, and the rumored new hoth exclusive play-set would seem to indicate a trend toward play sets and away from the seemingly underperforming large models like SSD, B wing, and Obi star fighter. I'd be shocked if any future exclusive death star was a model only

    We've seen this in creator expert too. The modulars have slowly tilted more and more toward play sets with more mini figures and play features. The mixer was all play set, quite different than the old ferris wheel and carousel
    groundedprevere
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I would really like a Death Star small enough it display in a small area or on top of a desk. They have made 3 different sizes of the ISD, why not the DS? The current playset looks like it would be fun to build. I have the Death Star II and my wife said it was pretty boring to build. Very repetitive.

    I was asked recently if the Simpsons House is on the way out and my response was "No". I really think the Simpsons House and the Mixer will be available at the same time as Kwik-E-Mart and the Ferris Wheel. I'm sure both themes will be much like the Winter Village Theme; phase the old one out while the new one is introduced. This will give people time to purchase the previous one. I don't think either themes will be like the Modular Buildings; having 3-4 sets out at the same time.
    pharmjod
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,159
    ^ #9676 ? ;-)
    Vortexbobabricks
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    ^^^ Right on ... add FB to the "if never existed" list along with it ,then we would likely be celebrating 100 pages ,6 pages from now : )
    brickupdate
  • VortexVortex Pakistan/USMember Posts: 342
    Also , irony ..for DS ... We are likely to be discussing it heftily another 106 pages from now ... message for DS  : " Wake me up before you go go ..."   Though I really won't have words of console to those who wake up right after and are left " hanging like a yoyo"  

    alright ill ill stop being corny now 
  • PeteMPeteM Gallifrey (near Bristol)Member Posts: 398
    I've been playing a game of chicken with the DS for the past four years - I still don't have one but know I won't be able to pay aftermarket prices for it. I've used that time to purchase Emerald Night, Maersk Train, FB, GE and TH, so so far it's paid off, but now I'm feeling a bit twitchy and think I'll be getting the DS in the next couple of months...
    brickupdate
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,052
    edited April 2015
    The DS. Never pulled trigger on this one as I never got into the Star Wars theme. There was a time not long ago I was on the door step of buying it just to say I "bought it". If they came out with a slightly smaller and cheaper version I think I'd buy it.
    Mordoor
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,086
    BACbrix said:
    I have heard rumors of a Death Star for 2016. Plausible or unrealistic? I literally bought it two days ago and haven't opened yet so I am wondering if the new Death Star will kill the value of the old one.

    There is no value to kill except the original purchase price. When it does finally retire I don’t think the price will deflate but it will take a long, long time to make a decent return on investment.

    As for a 10188 for your son, get a used one! They pop up all the time on Craigslist. You can get one off Bricklink for $330.00 (plus shipping).

    BACbrixbrickupdate
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    ^Agreed. It will likely be 3+ years to see it move to a more worth while number. Haven't decided yet but I may return it and buy a used one. The simple size of the box and weight is astonishing. In it's early release time it truly was a sight.
  • ecmo47ecmo47 North CarolinaMember Posts: 2,086
    Of course on the other hand, open it, build it, and enjoy it for a couple years and then sell it for the same price as you bought.  That's not loosing money! (Just dont misplace Palpatine and the black protocol droid minifigs).
    FollowsCloselybrickupdate
  • Sethro3Sethro3 United StatesMember Posts: 819
    ^I know people hate talking about minifigures, but they sell sets. The new Final Duel set this summer has an updated Vader AND Palpatine...Some collectors will like the old versions (or every version), but with a new Palpatine finally, he won't be as exclusive in that same attire.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Shib said:
    ^ #9676 ? ;-)
    Ha! No, I don't consider that set because it isn't brick built. I would like one the size of a desktop globe.
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