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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813

    ^^^ I got lucky really. I was able to offload all my regrettable resale purchases in a retail outlet that I used to sell in before it closed down. It was a post office in a village actually. Sure, I only got my money back plus a little profit but there was never going to be more profit by holding them longer. Now I'm in a pretty good position and sticking to my plan. It's under constant review, but all plans should be relating to financial investment. And others.

    Well, the irony is, I say I got lucky. The day she paid me, and it was a substantial amount of money, I picked the cash up after work and drove to collect my car which had been in the garage for a timing chain, tensioner, guides, wiring loom and ECU. !!!

    On a Cooper S.

    I'll never forget that day. I picked up £25 more than my garage bill was!! I nearly just gave him the lot. I went and treat myself to a milkshake and shook myself down before going home.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    Hahahahaha. I was just talking to someone whose dog ate through their wiring "loom". In the US, we call it a wiring harness. What is "shaking yourself down"?
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    edited March 2015
    ^ Having a talk with yourself and getting over it!!
    Pitfall69
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Gavin83 said:
    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.
    TLG version no, Enlighten version very likely.

    Pitfall69 said:
    I have mixed feelings about The Simpsons. If Lego decides to go "all in" and create more sets in addition to Kwik-E-Mart, I see this being much like the Winter Village Series or the Modular Series.
    I am on the fence as well. With the minifigs being produced for CMF there is just a flood of them. The Simpsons is a poor seller in Europe so it is going to be up to N. America to do the heavy lifting. For those reasons I am out. For my personal collection I am avoiding the theme as well. That frees up some capital and space for some hopefully mind blowing Star Wars sets from the new film. 
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    ^I don't think The Simpsons are that big in the USA either; perhaps in Canada. The original CMFs didn't sell that well, so I was surprised when the announcement was made to go forward with Simpson theme and the new CMFs. My first thought when I heard more Simpsons sets were going to be released was that someone in Billund must be a big Simpsons fan. I feel more certain of that assessment now...
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    For my personal collection it came down to Scooby Do or Simpsons. Scooby won.
    Pitfall69Farmer_John
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 994
    If Lego actually puts together a whole Springfiled line of sets like 5+, then I think the original two sets, the house and kwik e will do really well in the secondary market.  
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 994
    For my personal collection it came down to Scooby Do or Simpsons. Scooby won.
    I'm not a fan of either line, but if I was hedging on what sets would go up in value the most, I'd buy these first two Simpson's sets and hope Lego produces additional sets like the high school, power plant, burger place, etc. for a few more years.

    But I think the Scooby Van and mansion will do well, too, in the long run on their own.

    As always, only time will tell.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    Gavin83 said:
    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.
    Why would TLG re-release the TH? It's been gone for almost 6 months and is not even on their website anymore. And if TLG was going to re-release any modular set, it would likely be the GG since it would be in much higher demand than the TH. But it is highly improbable that they will re-release either. The reality is (for better or worse) that the TH is gone for good...

    No idea where that message came from, I didn't type it. It's clearly not coming back.
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    prevere said:
    Gavin83 said:
    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.

    So to sum this up as long as resellers are making TLG money, buying undesirable sets and generally helping them out their fine but once they start making money for themselves they're suddenly against them. They need to learn they can't have it both ways. They can't really eliminate resellers anyway, just make it harder for them.
    When you're the largest toy company in the word, and on fire, you can indeed have it both ways.
    Not really. You can't choose what resellers buy and what they don't. They can in theory eliminate reselling completely or continue with the current model, they can't say 'you can sell model x but not model y'. There just isn't a way of doing this. They can of course limit certain sets but even that isn't foolproof.
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    Simpsons sets = more expensive than modulars with a highly niche appeal. Modulars have a very wide appeal. I see young and old, male and female oohing and ahhing over the display models for PC and PR. I don't think the Simpsons theme will do well at all.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    ^This is where I can make a case for The Simpsons House. Take a look at #4954 Model Town House. Some of the larger Creator houses have done very well in the Aftermarket. In my entire lifetime, I have only watched one Simpsons episode in its entirety, and that was the recent Lego episode. I bought the Simpsons house because it goes well with all of my other houses. My daughters absolutely love the house and have played with it a ton. The Kwik-E-Mart is a great set too and will fit into any city/town layout. I plan on adding it to my layout. Yes, you are paying a premium for licensed product, but you can easily sell the minifigures to put a dent into the $200.
    xpokpharmjodCircleK
  • CircleKCircleK U.S. - Columbus, OhioMember Posts: 1,055
    edited March 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^This is where I can make a case for The Simpsons House. Take a look at #4954 Model Town House. Some of the larger Creator houses have done very well in the Aftermarket. In my entire lifetime, I have only watched one Simpsons episode in its entirety, and that was the recent Lego episode. I bought the Simpsons house because it goes well with all of my other houses. My daughters absolutely love the house and have played with it a ton. The Kwik-E-Mart is a great set too and will fit into any city/town layout. I plan on adding it to my layout. Yes, you are paying a premium for licensed product, but you can easily sell the minifigures to put a dent into the $200.
    This is exactly how I feel about both sets. I'm not a Simpsons fan and don't know anything about the show or the extended characters but both the house and Kwick-E-Mart are extremely well done buildings that can exist outside of the Simpsons universe. 
    Pitfall69
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    I wish TLG would do unlicensed stuff as high quality designs as these. Just maybe 50% larger scale than modulars.
    dougtsbinaryeye
  • juddtaylorjuddtaylor Member Posts: 27
    Simpsons are personal for me. I used to go watch them on the Tracy Ulman show as a kid. It's a collection habit I think I can stick to without breaking the bank, long term. 

    The other sets I keep for me and the kids MUST be awesome players. I probably need to limit that stuff to the max at this point... just too much money going out, and time to get some coming back in.

    I think TLG is working the simpsons pretty well. They aren't flooding the market with sets, all of the sets are too expensive for kids, and all have a crazy level of detail. These are also the only minifig series with decent looking heads in the TLG history.... just saying.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,576
    I'm not sure there will be a huge market for Simpsons figures parted from the large sets. If Snake remains exclusive there will be a market for him. But all the others have already appeared in the CMF, some without change. No doubt there will be collectors that want every version including jam stains, but many will want one of a character and not care Apu is a different shirt. Prices for the family from the house have really dropped, and sales volume not that great.
    VorpalRyu
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,052
    I have a copy of the Simpsons house and could be persuaded to buy a second. If for nothing else to hold for a year or two and resell and hopefully make a dent in the purchase price of the first. Thoughts?
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    I wish TLG would do unlicensed stuff as high quality designs as these. Just maybe 50% larger scale than modulars.
    I think we may start to see some $100 Modulars in the mold of the Pet Shop-split style stick buildings. If Lego released one of these in June, 6 months after each new major modular release, that would a good timing point.
    FollowsCloselydougts
  • DadsAFOLDadsAFOL USAMember Posts: 614
    edited March 2015
    ^I don't think The Simpsons are that big in the USA either; perhaps in Canada. The original CMFs didn't sell that well, so I was surprised when the announcement was made to go forward with Simpson theme and the new CMFs. My first thought when I heard more Simpsons sets were going to be released was that someone in Billund must be a big Simpsons fan. I feel more certain of that assessment now...
    FYI, the Q1 employee magazine lists the top 10 sets by sales for 2014, and Simpsons figures were on the list.  Series 12 and the Movie Series didn't make the top 10.  So despite the AFOL perception of overproduction and bad sales it appears Lego had strong evidence of consumer interest.

    As for the House, here's something to consider.  Perhaps the Simpsons will  become an evergreen line just like the modulars or Winter Village with a new Springfield set every year.  I admit 2 sets does not yet make a pattern, but looking at the Kwik E Mart I can see sales being as good or better than the House and therefore Lego planning set #3 for 2016.  So if the House becomes the first in a long line wouldn't that make it comparable to Cafe Corner in terms of post-EOL value?   

    The answer to that will depend largely on the unknown retirement date for the House.  If it retires this year and is replaced by the Kwik E, then I can see it going into the $1200 range in 3 years.  However, if the House follows what appears to be the "new exclusives business model" where sets stay in production as long as sales are above the target, it could be around 4 years like the Pet Shop.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    DadsAFOL said:

    So if the House becomes the first in a long line wouldn't that make it comparable to Cafe Corner in terms of post-EOL value?   
    No because the market for modulars is alot larger than the market for Simpsons. Also the supply of Simpsons Houses is going to be alot larger than the supply of Cafe Corner. Larger supply in a lesser theme. It will do well, just not anywhere close to Cafe Corner well. If you can get it at a decent discount (preferably 27%) it will do ok. 71006 shelf warms big time in Europe so I would expect winter village type returns rather than modular returns. If the Chinese buy up the Simpsons like they do modulars it will do very well. I have a hard time believing the Simpsons playsets are going to be as iconic as modular row worldwide but I could be wrong.
    VorpalRyu
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    edited March 2015
    Serious question: Why won't The Simpsons just die? I remember thinking the same thing twenty years ago. Do Millennials really watch it or is it just old Gen-X'ers without a life? My personal opinion is that it degraded the state of animated television... permanently. Now we have to put up with crap like Family Guy, American Dad and countless other poorly drawn and tasteless animated shows by the likes of Seth MacFarlane.
    FollowsCloselyRainstorm26
  • DawnDawn GoldMember Posts: 247
    ^, it is a TV not your in laws, you don't have to put up with it, just change the channel or turn off the TV :)
    ericbReesesPiecesdougtsAanchirnike1664nicoyagomezCapnRex101LostInTranslation
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,873
    edited March 2015
    Simpson's at its finest is far better than family guy or any of those other shows. Even when mediocre its still a better show than family guy. At least there is some heart to the Simpson's. Anything by Seth McFarlane is just snark and mean spirited in general.

    I'm not exactly sure what high art animated television you are referencing in the first place for the Simpson's to destroy. I would argue that South Park is more responsible for whatever demise you think there has been.
    TXLegoguyjuggles7TechnicNickjuddtaylorRainstorm26GothamConstructionCo
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    Dawn said:
    ^, it is a TV not your in laws, you don't have to put up with it, just change the channel or turn off the TV :)
    Sure.  But it's so ingrained in our culture that the Simpsons might as well be our in laws.
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    Simpsons is a lot smarter than those other shows.  It was the pioneer for a lot of the entertainment we have today.  Not everyone is a fan but it's place as an iconic television show has been cemented over time.
    TXLegoguyReesesPieces
  • monkeyhangermonkeyhanger Member Posts: 2,787
    Never overly fussed on Simpsons, it does seem very long in the tooth now, but as suggested above, I don't watch it. I watch far more films than TV shows, the only thing on TV I simply refuse to miss is Game of Thrones.
    VorpalRyu
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    pharmjod said:

    I'm not exactly sure what high art animated television you are referencing in the first place for the Simpson's to destroy. I would argue that South Park is more responsible for whatever demise you think there has been.
    South Park was bad too.  But it started in 1997.  The Simpsons has been running since 1989.  It has influenced just about everything on prime time that is remotely "family oriented".  It made snarky humor mainstream.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096

    Chubbles said:
    Simpsons is a lot smarter than those other shows.  It was the pioneer for a lot of the entertainment we have today.  Not everyone is a fan but it's place as an iconic television show has been cemented over time.
    I get The Simpsons.  I even found it mildly amusing... twenty years ago.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    I will admit to enjoying Beavis and Butthead back in the day.  If there was ever a show that nailed low life middle schoolers it's B&B.  
    juddtaylor
  • Rsa33Rsa33 USAMember Posts: 156
    Lego needs to get the arrested development license, eff the simpsons. GOB and Buster mfs ftw haha. Simpsons was mega from like ~seasons 4-11 stopped watching years ago...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,372
    ^Word son...
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,576
    I used to enjoy the Simpsons, still do. And Family Guy. And American Dad. And King of the Hill, Beavis and Butthead. Tom and Jerry was pretty tasteless, teaching kids about animal cruelty and smoking.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    edited March 2015
    CCC said:
    Tom and Jerry was pretty tasteless, teaching kids about animal cruelty and smoking.
    True.  Still it was focused on the antagonist.  Cartoons today go after men, women and children.  

    To be fair, I hate Seth MacFarlane.  He's an overrated hack.  Must have connections.  There are endearing things in King of the Hill, B&B and The Simpsons.  I just don't understand how The Simpsons has endured all these years.  I'm not even sure that many people watch it anymore.  It's more of a pop culture thing than anything else.
  • Rsa33Rsa33 USAMember Posts: 156
    Tom & Jerry, Pink Panther, Hanna Barbarra (sp?), disney shorts including donald w the nazi regime were epic for their respective eras. I love that flintstones commercial where fred and barney are smoking winstons?

    Perhaps I am biased but cartoons these days are awful, bring back tail spin, goof troop, ducktales, darkwing duck etc lol. The original batman tas is still the goat tho
    EKSam
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    Rsa33 said:
    Tom & Jerry, Pink Panther, Hanna Barbarra (sp?), disney shorts including donald w the nazi regime were epic for their respective eras. I love that flintstones commercial where fred and barney are smoking winstons?

    Perhaps I am biased but cartoons these days are awful, bring back tail spin, goof troop, ducktales, darkwing duck etc lol. The original batman tas is still the goat tho
    Agreed.  My youngest son loves the old Disney shorts.  Some of those feature amazing animation and story lines.  So much more creativity and personality than the crap on nowadays.
  • Rsa33Rsa33 USAMember Posts: 156
    The Disney shorts were spectacular. Growing up, my cousins had collections of them on vhs. The donald duck with chip & dale episodes were particular favorites.

    Sleepy Hollow, Wind and the Willows, Johnny Appleseed, Casey at Bat, the list is endless. Simply genius :)
  • Rsa33Rsa33 USAMember Posts: 156
    If lego ever tackled these licences, could you imagine a ucs scrooge mcduck $ bin?!
    stevemackprevereEKSamZon
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    edited March 2015
    mathew said:
    Serious question: Why won't The Simpsons just die? I remember thinking the same thing twenty years ago. Do Millennials really watch it or is it just old Gen-X'ers without a life? 
    I used to watch Simpsons but haven't since about 8-10 years now.  You are free to express your opinion but why would you assume someone doesn't have a life just because they watch a show you do not like?  Same can be said about grown adults who collect lego or spend time on online forums.  
    You've got a good point there.  I'm just trying to figure out if the same people who watched The Simpsons twenty five years ago still watch it today?  It's not like it ever went off the air and came back.  It's always been there which is kind of strange don't you think?  It's taken on a Truman Show kind of mystique.
  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    Some people like to just take a break and watch television. Why is that hard to understand? I don't watch much television but I don't think less of someone who watches a show that I don't.  I used to watch the Simpsons - now I don't. With that being said, I'll probably buy the Kwik-E-Mart because, for some reason, it really appeals to me. Might even make me go back and buy the house. Happens often enough = show continues on without me watching it AND Lego makes another set that might or might not appeal to me. Pretty cool to me.  
  • juddtaylorjuddtaylor Member Posts: 27
    I agree MacFarlane should stick to singing. The SW parody episodes are watchable, but that's it for me.

    I was a big beavis and butthead fan in the day, too. They recently revived that show, but I'm not sure if it's still around.

    My favorite is Futurama, though. Highest IQ writing staff of any show, ever, by miles and miles and miles. I think the min requirement to write for that show is at least one PHD in astrophysics or mathematics.

    I only rarely watch the simpsons lately, but it's still as enjoyable as ever.

    I would pay mad $$ for a set of the Planet Express headquarters or the ship!
    OdinduskVorpalRyuTechnicNick
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,237
    @juddtaylor the Planet Express HQ & the ship would be awesome, prefer that over the Simpsons.
    xiahna
  • ACWWGal2011ACWWGal2011 Member Posts: 534
     

    Up until that mega marathon, I almost never watched the show but now I am watching it a lot more.

    As far as futurama goes, I really like the older stuff(pre-Comedy central) but am not wild about the CC era stuff.

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259

    Well I'm a fan of the Simpsons, although I will admit I haven't watched many of the episodes in the last 10 or so seasons. 

    As for Family Guy etc. I think they are funny. Yes there is lots of toilet humour which isn't for everyone, but the show touches on the reality of some of societies issues that the more conservative types like to pretend don't exist.

    As for the Kwiki Mart, I think it is great and I hope we get more of these large Simpsons sets.

    timinchicago
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,052
    I think the Simpsons are just iconic and somewhat truly Americana. Some of the jokes and underlying themes within a show make millions of people laugh on a weekly basis. I too havent watched an episode in years but I remember when I did the shows also seemed to stay up on current events quite well. So I assume they were making episodes almost on a weekly basis which I thought was pretty cool.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    I know it's a bit premature, but am wondering if the new #76042 SHIELD Helicarrier will be the next #10179 UCS Millennium Falcon. Both sets are extremely expensive, albeit the MF had a $150 higher RRP and roughly 2000 pieces more. At the same time, both are/were priced high enough to constrain only the most serious buyers (without discounts). The SH minifigs are more unique than the MF minifigs, but the MF set itself is more iconic than the SH set. The MF was available (per BS) for roughly 2 1/2 years; the SH's availability is unknown at this point (although I'm unsure of any other alternative UCS Marvel set to replace it). The kicker is that it's unlikely the SH will ever be offered at a discount, unlike the MF which was offered at a 50% discount (or $100 less than the SH's RRP, I believe) at some point.

    In all probability, the UCS MF will always be the "pièce de résistance"...the king of all Lego sets. At the same time, I wonder where a set like the SH will stand on a scale of 1 to 10 with 10 being the UCS MF?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,576
    I don't think the Simpsons House is going anywhere for a while. It is being advertised on the back of the leaflets coming in the CMF series 2.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    @Farmer_John,
     I don't think so as Avengers <<< Star Wars. The falcon being mini fig scale is one thing that makes it so awesome, more awesome than micro scale. I will probably invest in #76042, but I would rather have a stack of Modulars than a stack of Helicarriers
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited March 2015
    ^ Yeah, same here.  Long odds that there will ever be another set that climbs in value like the UCS MF.  But, never say never. :-)

    One reason for it not happening....
    I think one huge reason the USC MF became what it is today is because it was under the radar.  I see few sets being under the radar now days.  

    One reason for it happening...
    It has already been stated.  One aspect that is different today is that LEGOS aren't found on sale (and sometimes not as many are available), so if a person is going to buy a lot of a set they will have to do at near RRP.  That will obviously lower the number of those later sought after sets that are bought pre-retirement (both by regular customers and resellers).  That may help retailers with their inventory, but could help resellers later.  I think that increases the odds of there being another UCS MF set.  Could that happen with the Tumbler?  Not only is it not on sale.  The numbers sold are intentionally kept low.  I think very, very low.  But, will it have UCS MF appeal? Which take us to...

    The one great unknown is...
    How popular will the set be long term?  How endearing will it be?  How much will people pay to get one post retirement?  That is truly the great unknown.  One that even LEGO doesn't know.  After what happened with the USC MF it seemed so obvious, didn't it?  I remember being in a LEGO store when the USC MF was still current and thought "who will pay that much ($500) for a LEGO set?"  Oddly, at that time not many people.  I didn't even buy any until it was discounted ($400) right before it retired, so I got my limit of 2.  The rest is history.

  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,576
    cloaked7 said:
    ^ Yeah, same here.  Long odds that there will ever be another set that climbs in value like the UCS MF.  But, never say never. :-)


    I guess it depends how you measure the increase in value. If in magnitude of monetary increase, then unlikely. If in increase in percentage value of the RRP, then the UCS MF has already been overtaken by some CMF sets. Even forgetting about Mr Gold.
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