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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,289
    The Tumbler was available in store in August. It wasn't until December that it was also sold online at [email protected], which is what Brickset scrapes for the availability date.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    ^So, are you saying that Tumbler is a bad investment to those not willing to hold onto it for three years?
    My comments above were discussing when the UCS Tumbler is going to retire; not how the Tumbler's will do after it's retired. Apples and oranges...

    I think the UCS Tumbler will be a great post-EOL investment.

    Pitfall69 said:
    @Farmer_John, Yes, The Tumbler was released late August, I believe the 23rd, but to VIP members. I don't know when it actually became available to the general public. So, it has been out for less than 6 months since VIP release. There isn't any reliable data on when Exclusives retire. It was also a different time when the UCS Batmobile was for sale.

    @Pitfall69 - I just looked up my order for the UCS Tumbler; I ordered it on August 18, 2014 and received it a few days later. It became available to the general public on September 1, 2014. I included the month of August as a month of availability since Lego was selling it to actual customers (VIP or otherwise). So to split hairs, it's been available to anyone who is truly interested for 7 months (less 6 days).

    I completely agree with your comment that "there isn't any reliable data on when Exclusives retire." I was just responding to your earlier comment when you said there's "no way The Tumbler retires this year." It's anybody's guess...I'm just guessing it's gone before the end of the year. Keep in mind that the TH retiring before the PS or the Haunted House retiring before Halloween would have seemed like crazy guesses 6 short months ago too. :smile: 

    rocao said:
    The Tumbler was available in store in August. It wasn't until December that it was also sold online at [email protected], which is what Brickset scrapes for the availability date.
    As mentioned above, I ordered my UCS Tumbler through [email protected] on August 18, 2014. I didn't get it from a store. I did order it as a VIP member though...

    Pitfall69
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,310
    How much longer are people thinking ECTO-1 will be hanging around, still considering whether or not to grab it & is there much expectation on it aftermarket?
    xiahna
  • DiggydoesDiggydoes Cologne/GermanyMember Posts: 1,079
    Tbh,i think TH only went EOL because it sold bad! On most boards i've came across (especially here) people were complaining that it looks bad,to expensive...the tumbler on the other hand seems to sell like hot cakes,so why should TLG EOL it after such a short shelf-time?
  • DedgeckoDedgecko Seattle, WAMember Posts: 800
    How well do non-licensed themes do in the aftermarket? Should I even consider saving Ultra Agent sets, or the latest wave of Pirate sets?
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    No to the pirates theme. Too blahhhh. Agents I could see maybe a 1.5 return. Honestly I would pick up galaxy squad before the agents sets. Of course the larger sets always do best so if anything buy the pirate ship and the Agents HQ truck. But this wave of pirates is too bland and boring compared to other years.
    VorpalRyu
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Diggydoes said:
    Tbh,i think TH only went EOL because it sold bad! On most boards i've came across (especially here) people were complaining that it looks bad,to expensive...
    I know we're both being anecdotal here, but I observed just the opposite.  People found the HH to be a great value for what it is, and thought it would be a supreme investment opportunity.  Both appear right.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2015
    BACbrix said:
    No to the pirates theme. Too blahhhh. Agents I could see maybe a 1.5 return. Honestly I would pick up galaxy squad before the agents sets. Of course the larger sets always do best so if anything buy the pirate ship and the Agents HQ truck. But this wave of pirates is too bland and boring compared to other years.
    The current pirate ship is actually a very nice design, and at $100, a good value for what it offers - updated figs, play value, detailed cabin, etc.  http://brickset.com/article/14304/review-70413-the-brick-bounty does a great job of exhibiting these features also, as well as comparing it to how it stands up to previous "non-bland and boring" ships.

    If these things go on a 20%+ off sale, which is likely because the set doesn't appear to be an exclusive, they will likely be a good investment.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    While I agree with most of that, personally I thought at the time that was a very optimistic review, #70413 looks pretty awful to me in the flesh, and ranks a poor second best to #6243 (much better in the flesh that I expected) let alone the grand masters of pirate ships. 
    BACbrix
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,881
    #70413 is a pirate ship. Kids like them. If another one is not available at a reasonable price once it goes, then it will do well.
    cloaked7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Diggydoes said:
    Tbh,i think TH only went EOL because it sold bad! On most boards i've came across (especially here) people were complaining that it looks bad,to expensive...
    I know we're both being anecdotal here, but I observed just the opposite.  People found the HH to be a great value for what it is, and thought it would be a supreme investment opportunity.  Both appear right.
    The Town Hall doesn't suck, but it definitely doesn’t rank high on my list. In fact I have it ranked 2nd worst right after Market Street. It is obviously a matter of taste, but I think the consensus was that TH didn't rank very high on people's list either. When it retired, it caught me off guard. I had plans to buy more regardless because it is still a Modular. 
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Holy crap Diggy, I thought you had written the HH.

    Yes, I agree with your statements (and Pitfall's).
    DiggydoesmadforLEGOPitfall69
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Starting to hear more and more chatter about TLGs changing distribution model for their exclusives. For a while I have been hearing from various sources that they have a plan in place to no longer distribute exclusives that are at the tail end of their shelf lives to retail or big box but will only make them available from their [email protected] online store. I have heard that they want total control over who the remaining stock goes to in order to keep large scale stockpiling by resellers to a minimum who typically purchase massive quantities near EOL and then flood the secondary market over the next years. I guess PS is going to be an interesting test case so keep your eyes peeled. If true this is going to be great news for secondary market prices going forward (not necessarily for PS tho as it has already been well stocked over many years, especially in 2014).
  • joel4motionjoel4motion United KingdomMember Posts: 959
    As long as storage space isn't a problem for TLG I can see the above^ working quite well. Sure, you'll get those who'll send to their parents/friends etc but it will limit the supply massively to resellers and it should keep it around for longer after production stops.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited March 2015
    Fairly sure its what was suggested here in response to LFT's suggestion that LEGO should send resellers everything discounted just before it EOLs. With online retail there's no need to discount it to save shelf space, take it off the retail shelves and leave it online for as long as it takes. Of course, as soon as its [email protected] only everyone will assume its out of production and do whatever they can to scoop them up. 
    pharmjod
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Of course, as soon as its [email protected] only everyone will assume its out of production and do whatever they can to scoop them up. 
    I guess we will see how it pans out for Pet Shop. Hearing it will only be available from [email protected] and is not due to go until the end of 2016. Just rumour at this point but an interesting case to watch.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,780

    Starting to hear more and more chatter about TLGs changing distribution model for their exclusives. For a while I have been hearing from various sources that they have a plan in place to no longer distribute exclusives that are at the tail end of their shelf lives to retail or big box but will only make them available from their [email protected] online store. I have heard that they want total control over who the remaining stock goes to in order to keep large scale stockpiling by resellers to a minimum who typically purchase massive quantities near EOL and then flood the secondary market over the next years. I guess PS is going to be an interesting test case so keep your eyes peeled. If true this is going to be great news for secondary market prices going forward (not necessarily for PS tho as it has already been well stocked over many years, especially in 2014).
    So is this really LEGO's 'idea' and has LEGO only leaked this now, but in practice this has been going on for some time with some exclusives, but not others?
    Or is it them trying to save face because retailers really no longer want to carry older exclusives, mainly the older mods, as they cannot discount them to clear remaining stocks when they turn less desirable?

    As much as LEGO wants to knock out the 'scourge' that is reselling I think LEGO forgets one key factor: Sets retire. There will ALWAYS be a reseller market due to this and tightening the grip will only cause it to be more lucrative for those that weather the storm IMO. You can make a set for 6 years, but eventually you are going to retire it, when you do it will generate an aftermarket if it is desirable. Unless they are going to limit any purchased to one and to one person for the entire run of a set (good luck enforcing this, especially since they cannot even stop people from clearing out sets like #41999, #21109, and #21110 when released). Or they could run sets forever, which just is not feasible for many reasons.
    As long as you can buy a set from a retailer and purchase more than one, resellers are here to stay, specifically the big guys that can afford to buy at retail and store them in a storage shed/warehouse for an extended length of time.

    LEGO is a victim of their own success, but reselling long term exclusive sets (obviously resellers are an issue with short run sets, like #41999, #21109, and #21110 ) is lucrative and is not going to stop unless LEGO becomes undesirable -which LEGO definitely does not want.

    Maybe instead of focusing on hammering 'evil resellers', which still help drive the brand and only help LEGO make more money, they should focus on updating their site to  show limit 1 and MEAN limit of 1 purchased- period- for brand new or desirable (ie small limited run) sets?
    Maybe trying to stop this blatant counterfeiting of their super heroes figures (which can only hurt their profits) and tightening up the security on their set boxes (to stop loss returns which has to cost LEGO money) would help LEGO far more than stopping people from buying product?
    cloaked7ZondougtsVorpalRyu
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    I don't think they are particularly anti-reseller, but anti-resellers-who-disrupt-their-marketplace. They don't want resellers exploiting hard to find items, they don't want resellers exploiting discounts, they dont want resellers shipping internationally to exploit price variations. I suspect they don't want resellers sending EOL items to sold out status too quickly either, whilst its still in the public conscious. If it can sit on [email protected] for 6 months people won't be looking in store only to be told they're all on eBay at 2xRRP. After that I'm sure LEGO see the benefit in a strong aftermarket, and whilst resellers are the symptom not the cause, the two go hand in hand.
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    Good work!!! :)
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,656
    It's great to see that Fire Brigade and Grand Emporium are done well, I wonder if any of the ones we still have that will surpass the number of days that they are available for?
  • BrickDancerBrickDancer Dunes of TatooineMember Posts: 3,639
    ^Lmao!
    brickupdateLegoboy
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    ^^ :D
    brickupdate
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,460
    ^^^Post of the year. Nice!
    brickupdate
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Farmer_John  I see what you did there with the subliminal message...

    I've been brainwashed! Darn, darn, darn, darny, darn!
    brickupdatesnowhitie
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,310
    I don't think they are particularly anti-reseller, but anti-resellers-who-disrupt-their-marketplace. They don't want resellers exploiting hard to find items, they don't want resellers exploiting discounts, they dont want resellers shipping internationally to exploit price variations. I suspect they don't want resellers sending EOL items to sold out status too quickly either, whilst its still in the public conscious. If it can sit on [email protected] for 6 months people won't be looking in store only to be told they're all on eBay at 2xRRP. After that I'm sure LEGO see the benefit in a strong aftermarket, and whilst resellers are the symptom not the cause, the two go hand in hand.
    One easy way to stop resellers exploit price variation, bring prices in all regions in line with each other. When our dollar was at parity with the US dollar, I saved a ton of cash buying most of my Marvel sets there... Some of which I had to buy there as they were blink & you missed items, the Quinjet Aerial Battle was in stores here maybe six months before it disappeared, which is another problem.

    Some items are only available in some regions for short periods, including on [email protected], or not even made available, like 99% of the Marvel polybags, this is making Australia a gold mine for resellers.
    xiahna
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    quick question ANY one buying any trains since they are 20% off on amazon. ANd if anyone has built either would the recommend either
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,780
    edited March 2015
    quick question ANY one buying any trains since they are 20% off on amazon. ANd if anyone has built either would the recommend either
    Well they are actually a bit cheaper at TRU, depending on if you have sales tax applied at Amazon or not.
    If you do, then TRU is a bit cheaper as they have a coupon that gives an additional 5 dollars off the purchase (stacks with the 20% which is what Amazon is matching).
    If you dont have tax applied at amazon, then I believe it is a bit cheaper to buy via Amazon.

    I have purchased two of each for my personal collection but have not built them yet.
    Personally I grab one of each train whethere I see it being fantastic or onw, becasue I do ont want to have to get one later after it is gone.
    But I would say, just based on looks, that the #7939 is better all around IMO.
    The Passenger train looks like as it is a bit different that theh last one, but again have not built it yet.

    Investment wise, seeing the lack of price increase on the #7939 Cargo train in EOL, which is a superior train set to the new Cargo one IMO, makes me not want to spend too much on these trains.
    The passenger train at 119.99 is a bit better IMO as the next passenger train will not likely be white as LEGO tends to mix those up a bit, and the last Passenger train (Red one #7938) tends to do OkI think, but again I do not see these going for much after EOL.

    If buying for investment I would rather pay a bit more/less (depending on which train you would buy) and get a mod like Pet Shop, or a bit more and get two Santa's workshops rather than buying these to hold on to. Plus there is the likelihood that LEGO will be making these specific train sets for at least 3 years from now.


  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    @canuhandle23 , you should read the customer reviews at Amazon, and watch a few video clips at youtube.  It will be time well spent in researching your purchase. 
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    canuhandle23madforLEGO -- buy something else. SO many other Exclusive sets are better for investment than these trains. 
    juggles7
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 81
    edited March 2015
     Besides, these new trains will be in production for quite awhile. Some of the exclusives are going to be EOLed soon.
  • msandersmsanders Member Posts: 980
    Funnily enough I just built the High speed passenger train (white one). I've also seen the Jangbricks review. Of course, the lack of doors could be a problem but my son has been playing with it for the last two hours and is loving it.

    In terms of investment, probably not worth it though with the length if time it will be out, the large discounts this set is getting plus Lego keep making trains so I'm not sure how this one would ever stand out from the next one. In terms of a fun build and play for a kid, its great!
  • Chang405Chang405 Member Posts: 81
    Lack of doors is only a problem for adults. When I was a kid, lack of doors or lack of stairs to get above the first story of a structure never bothered me too much. Just used my own imagination.
    TXLegoguypharmjodOdinduskmadforLEGOxpok
  • Gavin83Gavin83 Member Posts: 251
    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.

    I don't think they are particularly anti-reseller, but anti-resellers-who-disrupt-their-marketplace. They don't want resellers exploiting hard to find items, they don't want resellers exploiting discounts, they dont want resellers shipping internationally to exploit price variations. I suspect they don't want resellers sending EOL items to sold out status too quickly either, whilst its still in the public conscious. If it can sit on [email protected] for 6 months people won't be looking in store only to be told they're all on eBay at 2xRRP. After that I'm sure LEGO see the benefit in a strong aftermarket, and whilst resellers are the symptom not the cause, the two go hand in hand.

    So to sum this up as long as resellers are making TLG money, buying undesirable sets and generally helping them out their fine but once they start making money for themselves they're suddenly against them. They need to learn they can't have it both ways.

    They can't really eliminate resellers anyway, just make it harder for them.
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651
    Chang405 said:
    Lack of doors is only a problem for adults. When I was a kid, lack of doors or lack of stairs to get above the first story of a structure never bothered me too much. Just used my own imagination.
    Same here! I actually remember making my Minifigs climb imaginary stairs and making little sound effects as they did so. It was only as I got older that I wanted everything to be realistic. 
    Aanchir
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,901
    Gavin83 said:
    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.

    So to sum this up as long as resellers are making TLG money, buying undesirable sets and generally helping them out their fine but once they start making money for themselves they're suddenly against them. They need to learn they can't have it both ways. They can't really eliminate resellers anyway, just make it harder for them.
    When you're the largest toy company in the word, and on fire, you can indeed have it both ways.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    Gavin83 said:
    TH will be back, I don't doubt it at all. That's personally why I'm not very excited about it.
    Why would TLG re-release the TH? It's been gone for almost 6 months and is not even on their website anymore. And if TLG was going to re-release any modular set, it would likely be the GG since it would be in much higher demand than the TH. But it is highly improbable that they will re-release either. The reality is (for better or worse) that the TH is gone for good...
    madforLEGOjuggles7Pitfall69pharmjoddougtsMilne44
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    @Gavin83 , TH will be back? You are delusional my friend :)

    As far as the new Cargo Train, I recently built it and I must say it is a great set. I personally like it better than the previous one. The engine (which is an EMD engine I believe) is a great built and superior to the previous one. The cargo loading area is also better than the previous one. I think the cargo is a bit better in the previous train, but I enjoyed building the forklift in the new set. So, overall, I like #60052 better.
    pharmjodGothamConstructionCo
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,656
    edited March 2015
    Do you guys see the Simpsons House being the next Death Star?

    Yeah, I dropped the Sea Cow to the bottom of my list! Now I'm currently deciding to get the Simpsons House or the Tumbler this month for double VIP points. Then I will try and get the Kwik-E-Mart and the entire collectible minifigure series on the day of release in May. The Parisian Restaurant and Detective's Office will probably purchased in October 2015 or next year. Again I need to think about my Brick2015 budget as well and be careful how much I spend!

    My new goal is to get every Modular Building and The Simpsons sets. Forget Super Heroes they are a waste of money, if the model is decent then I would get it. £502 just for the Avengers: Age of Ultron sets! The odd LEGO Ideas set would also make it to my list like the upcoming Doctor Who or Wall E.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    You need to have a collection model and stick to it. I realize many sets come out and you want all of them, but that isn't in most people's budget. I have been sticking to my collection model For some time now and it has saved me a considerable amount of money and aggravation.
    dougts
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,656
    I don't completely understand what you mean? I think your saying is stick to one specific theme or collection, right?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    While I've never been much of a Passenger train fan (unless it's an old-time version), I do like the new Cargo Train #60052. I grabbed a couple of the individual Cargo Train cars (and the engine) from someone selling them individually on eBay, but decided to patiently wait for a sale before picking up a sealed version of the set. At 20% off, I went ahead and pulled the trigger and ordered one from Amazon last week.

    I will have to have at least 33% off before ordering the new Cargo train, and even that might not be enough.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815

    I think @Pitfall69 means prioritise what you like and spend your budget accordingly. Even if you have unlimited funds you surely can't  want everything?

    Pitfall69AdeelZubair
  • juddtaylorjuddtaylor Member Posts: 27
    Well, my double points purchase went to the Ewok Village. Once those points apply, I'll be getting the tumbler (end of the month, likely).

    As a collector for myself I'm maxing out on simpsons, so the Kwik-e-mart and the next simpsons CMF will likely be the end of my lego spending for the year.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    Adzbadboy said:
    I don't completely understand what you mean? I think your saying is stick to one specific theme or collection, right?
    My "collection model" consists of Modular Buildings,  Star Wars OT, Trains, CMF's and any exclusive and IDEAS set. That sounds like a lot, but it used to be much bigger. I used to buy EVERYTHING that I wanted; Harry Potter, City, Pirates of The Caribbean and anything Star Wars. By narrowing it down to OT Star Wars, I am really saving a ton of money. I sold almost all my Harry Potter, POTC and City sets. Anything I buy for resale doesn't count of course, but I am sticking to my model because it works for me.
    AdeelZubairdimefield
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ I've done the same for resale. I realised sometime ago you don't have to have every winner. I've an amount of stock plus a set amount of cash. Sure, there can be more cash injected into it if there's a no brainer to be had which wasn't in my plan. My old director used to say that you can change your plan at any time but you've always got to have one.  
    Pitfall69dougts
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    I was going to say that in my comment. You have to at least have a plan. My model will probably change when the new movie hits this December ;)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    Well, my double points purchase went to the Ewok Village. Once those points apply, I'll be getting the tumbler (end of the month, likely).

    As a collector for myself I'm maxing out on simpsons, so the Kwik-e-mart and the next simpsons CMF will likely be the end of my lego spending for the year.
    Ha! I picked up the Ewok Village too...I've been putting it off for too long.

    I do have a contrary view regarding the Simpsons. If you're getting them for personal use, then that's great. If you're getting it to resell, then I'm just not as optimistic. The theme is just way to niche. Now if TLG would have released The Simpsons during their heyday (mid-90s) they would have done pretty well.
    madforLEGO
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,409
    edited March 2015
    I have mixed feelings about The Simpsons. If Lego decides to go "all in" and create more sets in addition to Kwik-E-Mart, I see this being much like the Winter Village Series or the Modular Series.
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