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The argument about things needing to look "LEGO-like" to have collectible value is inane enough when it's applied to a category like constraction ( #4529 sold for $14.99 new, whereas the Bricklink price guide has nine of them selling for 4–6 times that in just the past six months). But when used against sets like the Scooby-Doo sets that are obviously brick-built it doesn't make sense any way you slice it. #10134 uses more specialized bricks and has a less blocky shape than the Scooby-Doo sets — are you going to try and tell me collectors have no interest in that set either?
I've long believed the main reason was to protect regional pricing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the market for flipping current sets overseas dried up for exclusives since the ban on discounts?
This and I believe it was also due to those overseas buying cheaper LEGO in the US, even with shipping fees, than what they have to pay in their own country, at least that is what I thought I heard on this very forum.
I'm a little concerned that this theme will up and vanish come Spring. Btw, this is regarding having the theme as a collection and not for resale.
@Bumblepants, it would not surprise me, the Divers replacing Arctic, sound argument there, can't keep every sub-theme going forever. The only #60064 s we came across were in one TRU the other side of town & #60062 s are definitely selling below RRP now at most retailers here.
I know age isn't the best indicator of likelihood of eol but I would still like to have a vague idea of which sets have been around the longest to inform my buying decisions.
2) Create Query:
SELECT * FROM Sets
WHERE (USAvailable = 1) AND (Pieces > 1)
ORDER BY YearFrom ASC
Or just click here.
That said, as an AFOL and someone who wants to enjoy the build and the finished model I go with the Sandcrawler.
However, I think the 1 Fire Brigade (even if dented) will do far better than 1 Pet shop in the long run. LEGO will likely build another set like pet shop (maybe not a pet shop but a townhouse and a small shop with rooms above) whereas I do not see them doing another fire station any time soon.
-Parisian Restaurant
-The Simpsons House
-MetalBeard's Sea Cow
-The Dark Knight Tumbler
Parisian Restaurant -2 years from now (PS and PC still have to go)
Simpsons house -this year (to be replaced by Kwik E mart)
Sea Cow - this year (most Movie sets are EOLing now)
Tumbler - a year from the fall this year -So late next year (just came out this past holiday)
By 'from now' being rough estimates, more than likely they will run out of stocks toward the later part of the year whereas it is spring now
I know there are those speculating that Tumbler will be gone by end of this year but I do not see that occurring.
I do agree though in the long run one FB will be demand more than the one PS
I would almost rather have 3 Palace Cinemas instead of 1 FB and 2 Pet shops.
It's odd because thinking that the Simpsons House will be the next Death Star, plus it's only been a year so far.
I see the Sea Cow and Tumbler gone by December 2015.
As for the FB vs 2 Pet shops, again if you could buy two PS instead of 1 FB, I agree with others, I would have gone with 2 PS only because you are getting 2 sets for what you would have had to pay for one (and those two sets will also likely climb a lot in EOL value). But I will dispute the idea that FB will never reach at least GG level at some point. I just chuckle a bit to people putting down FB, as I recall many people saying it would not even have gotten where it is now because of being on sale too much and being out so long. I would not be surprised to see it being 400 USD by this time next year.
Now if LEGO should happen to do another Fire Station mod, and you can never say never, then maybe it will not reach epic money, but if LEGO does not do another fire station mod it will be just as iconic IMO as GG, Market Street or Cafe Corner (though I agree it will be unlikely to hit CC or MS money at least not until it is out of circulation for a long long time).
On a somewhat related note, I notice #10211 has risen in price recently. At least from about 240 about 1-2 months ago to now around 280 USD now
Some thoughts on the EOLing of the UCS Tumbler:
- Contrary to what the Brickset database currently says, the UCS Tumbler was released in mid-August 2014; not in December 2014. Either that or I was able to purchase mine 4 months before everyone else. Yes, time flies...it's already been out for 7 months, albeit in limited supply.
- There are very few (well, actually one) data points for non SW-themed UCS sets. Here's looking at you #7784 UCS Batmobile (another Batman vehicle), which was only available for a few months...again per the Brickset database.
- There is an underlying assumption that the UCS Tumbler will be available on a similar timeline as a typical UCS SW set, and frankly that's about all we have to go on. Keep in mind that the UCS B-Wing was only available for 13 months and the UCS General Grievous was only available 12 months (in the U.S.). I know...these sets are certainly not UCS Tumblers, but they are data points if we're assuming a UCS SW timeline. The $64,000 question is: Will TLG use a UCS SW timeline for a non SW-themed set...especially when SW is always "fresh" and the UCS Tumbler is more dated?
- Another interesting fact is that the UCS Tumbler has only been available through [email protected] in very limited quantities (if at all) since it was released 7 months ago. A prospective buyer basically had to go into a Lego store to get a copy between September 2014 and early January 2015. Lego's approach to the sale of the UCS Tumber allows those wanting to get one WHILE putting up some barricades for those wanting to back the truck up. TLG is essentially just "trickling out" this particular set. This isn't normal TLG behavior...
- I can't believe I spent this much time writing this post!
Anyway, even if the UCS Tumbler is EOL'd by the end of 2015 (which I would give even odds), it would have still be available for almost 1 1/2 years.@madforLEGO , CC, MS and GG continue to rise. I based my statement mostly on that. When FB hits $400, GG may be at $1,150. When/if FB hits $500, GG may be at $1,300. FB won't and cannot keep up. Fire Brigade is the first Modular that I think most people hoarded and it was out forever and was available a long time before the ban on discounts here in the US. If you want to base my statement on current GG prices, then I guess I will still stand by my statement that FB will still not hit current GG prices in the near future. I suppose anything is possible. @doriansdad 's warehouse could blow up and the Aftermarket would lose 50% of FB's worldwide. That would create demand ;)
I think the UCS Tumbler will be a great post-EOL investment.
@Pitfall69 - I just looked up my order for the UCS Tumbler; I ordered it on August 18, 2014 and received it a few days later. It became available to the general public on September 1, 2014. I included the month of August as a month of availability since Lego was selling it to actual customers (VIP or otherwise). So to split hairs, it's been available to anyone who is truly interested for 7 months (less 6 days).
I completely agree with your comment that "there isn't any reliable data on when Exclusives retire." I was just responding to your earlier comment when you said there's "no way The Tumbler retires this year." It's anybody's guess...I'm just guessing it's gone before the end of the year. Keep in mind that the TH retiring before the PS or the Haunted House retiring before Halloween would have seemed like crazy guesses 6 short months ago too. :smile:
As mentioned above, I ordered my UCS Tumbler through [email protected] on August 18, 2014. I didn't get it from a store. I did order it as a VIP member though...