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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value
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Comments
I think the UCS Tumbler will be a great post-EOL investment.
@Pitfall69 - I just looked up my order for the UCS Tumbler; I ordered it on August 18, 2014 and received it a few days later. It became available to the general public on September 1, 2014. I included the month of August as a month of availability since Lego was selling it to actual customers (VIP or otherwise). So to split hairs, it's been available to anyone who is truly interested for 7 months (less 6 days).
I completely agree with your comment that "there isn't any reliable data on when Exclusives retire." I was just responding to your earlier comment when you said there's "no way The Tumbler retires this year." It's anybody's guess...I'm just guessing it's gone before the end of the year. Keep in mind that the TH retiring before the PS or the Haunted House retiring before Halloween would have seemed like crazy guesses 6 short months ago too. :smile:
As mentioned above, I ordered my UCS Tumbler through [email protected] on August 18, 2014. I didn't get it from a store. I did order it as a VIP member though...
If these things go on a 20%+ off sale, which is likely because the set doesn't appear to be an exclusive, they will likely be a good investment.
Yes, I agree with your statements (and Pitfall's).
So is this really LEGO's 'idea' and has LEGO only leaked this now, but in practice this has been going on for some time with some exclusives, but not others?
Or is it them trying to save face because retailers really no longer want to carry older exclusives, mainly the older mods, as they cannot discount them to clear remaining stocks when they turn less desirable?
As much as LEGO wants to knock out the 'scourge' that is reselling I think LEGO forgets one key factor: Sets retire. There will ALWAYS be a reseller market due to this and tightening the grip will only cause it to be more lucrative for those that weather the storm IMO. You can make a set for 6 years, but eventually you are going to retire it, when you do it will generate an aftermarket if it is desirable. Unless they are going to limit any purchased to one and to one person for the entire run of a set (good luck enforcing this, especially since they cannot even stop people from clearing out sets like #41999, #21109, and #21110 when released). Or they could run sets forever, which just is not feasible for many reasons.
As long as you can buy a set from a retailer and purchase more than one, resellers are here to stay, specifically the big guys that can afford to buy at retail and store them in a storage shed/warehouse for an extended length of time.
LEGO is a victim of their own success, but reselling long term exclusive sets (obviously resellers are an issue with short run sets, like #41999, #21109, and #21110 ) is lucrative and is not going to stop unless LEGO becomes undesirable -which LEGO definitely does not want.
Maybe instead of focusing on hammering 'evil resellers', which still help drive the brand and only help LEGO make more money, they should focus on updating their site to show limit 1 and MEAN limit of 1 purchased- period- for brand new or desirable (ie small limited run) sets?
Maybe trying to stop this blatant counterfeiting of their super heroes figures (which can only hurt their profits) and tightening up the security on their set boxes (to stop loss returns which has to cost LEGO money) would help LEGO far more than stopping people from buying product?
Here's a quick graph I put together of all the Modulars and their availability duration from Lego [email protected] They are sorted 1) in order of retirement, and 2) in order of release. The green lines represent the availability durations for those sets that have already been EOL'd, and the blue lines represent the availability durations for those sets that are still in production. The dates were taken from the Brickset data base, and date shown is the first day the respective set was listed for sale. The black line in the middle represents the average availability duration for those that have already been EOL'd.
The near simultaneous retirement of the GE and TH only makes sense; otherwise TLG would have had SIX modulars available at once as of January 1, 2015.
The PS has been available nearly a year longer than the average duration of a modular. I believe the reason the TH was retired before the PS is that TLG had to make a decision between the two and the PS was selling better (e.g., due to pricing, looks, build, whatever reason, etc.). The GE was going no matter what based on its availability duration! By EOLing the TH and GE, TLG still has four four modulars available for sale.
If I had to hazard a guess (with all of this in mind), I would say that the PS will be out through 2015 or until a new modular is released; whichever comes first (give or take a few months). Since the trend is to release a new modular each year since they were first introduced, I expect the PS to go between October 2015 and March 2016.
JMO...Some items are only available in some regions for short periods, including on [email protected], or not even made available, like 99% of the Marvel polybags, this is making Australia a gold mine for resellers.
If you do, then TRU is a bit cheaper as they have a coupon that gives an additional 5 dollars off the purchase (stacks with the 20% which is what Amazon is matching).
If you dont have tax applied at amazon, then I believe it is a bit cheaper to buy via Amazon.
I have purchased two of each for my personal collection but have not built them yet.
Personally I grab one of each train whethere I see it being fantastic or onw, becasue I do ont want to have to get one later after it is gone.
But I would say, just based on looks, that the #7939 is better all around IMO.
The Passenger train looks like as it is a bit different that theh last one, but again have not built it yet.
Investment wise, seeing the lack of price increase on the #7939 Cargo train in EOL, which is a superior train set to the new Cargo one IMO, makes me not want to spend too much on these trains.
The passenger train at 119.99 is a bit better IMO as the next passenger train will not likely be white as LEGO tends to mix those up a bit, and the last Passenger train (Red one #7938) tends to do OkI think, but again I do not see these going for much after EOL.
If buying for investment I would rather pay a bit more/less (depending on which train you would buy) and get a mod like Pet Shop, or a bit more and get two Santa's workshops rather than buying these to hold on to. Plus there is the likelihood that LEGO will be making these specific train sets for at least 3 years from now.
In terms of investment, probably not worth it though with the length if time it will be out, the large discounts this set is getting plus Lego keep making trains so I'm not sure how this one would ever stand out from the next one. In terms of a fun build and play for a kid, its great!
They can't really eliminate resellers anyway, just make it harder for them.
As far as the new Cargo Train, I recently built it and I must say it is a great set. I personally like it better than the previous one. The engine (which is an EMD engine I believe) is a great built and superior to the previous one. The cargo loading area is also better than the previous one. I think the cargo is a bit better in the previous train, but I enjoyed building the forklift in the new set. So, overall, I like #60052 better.
Yeah, I dropped the Sea Cow to the bottom of my list! Now I'm currently deciding to get the Simpsons House or the Tumbler this month for double VIP points. Then I will try and get the Kwik-E-Mart and the entire collectible minifigure series on the day of release in May. The Parisian Restaurant and Detective's Office will probably purchased in October 2015 or next year. Again I need to think about my Brick2015 budget as well and be careful how much I spend!
My new goal is to get every Modular Building and The Simpsons sets. Forget Super Heroes they are a waste of money, if the model is decent then I would get it. £502 just for the Avengers: Age of Ultron sets! The odd LEGO Ideas set would also make it to my list like the upcoming Doctor Who or Wall E.
I will have to have at least 33% off before ordering the new Cargo train, and even that might not be enough.
As a collector for myself I'm maxing out on simpsons, so the Kwik-e-mart and the next simpsons CMF will likely be the end of my lego spending for the year.
I do have a contrary view regarding the Simpsons. If you're getting them for personal use, then that's great. If you're getting it to resell, then I'm just not as optimistic. The theme is just way to niche. Now if TLG would have released The Simpsons during their heyday (mid-90s) they would have done pretty well.