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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    This thread adheres to three general viewpoints when it comes to sets being EOL'd:

    Viewpoint 1
    AKA, the TH (Town Hall) viewpoint, where a set is EOL'd overnight with little or no warning. Lots of people kicking themselves for missing out.

    Viewpoint 2
    AKA, the FB (Fire Brigade) viewpoint, where a set is EOL'd after two years of discussion about when it will be EOL'd. Less self kicking, but a lot more sweating and angst regarding said set's aftermarket potential.

    Viewpoint 3
    AKA, the DS (Death Star) viewpoint, where posters are trying with all their might to will a set to be EOL'd. Said poster has usually started kicking themselves again due to the set's overabundance in said poster's closet.

    As far as I can tell, the PS seems to currently be in 2nd Viewpoint (the FB viewpoint)...
    ZonLegoKipDAVEmoonminicoopers11
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    I purchased a few a couple of weeks back they they had seal code 05S5
    pharmjod
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    @doriansdad  has the best avatar yet.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,549
    I don't think that Lego are trying to protect secondary market prices with their no discounts policy. For a start if they wanted to try to do that, they'd do it worldwide. I think the reason they no longer do discounts on exclusives in the US is because they don't need to. If they do them, then many people wait and they get spikes in sales figures and less income than if they do no discounts.
    juggles7madforLEGOdougtscloaked7
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    pharmjod said:
    @doriansdad not at all disagreeing with you just a question: what makes you think PS is in full production? Have there been any 2015 Seal codes yet? Just curious. I agree with your sentiments I just have no info to indicate it is in production.
    Yes all my recent PS from [email protected] and LBR are from this year 03R5. PS was limit 2 for ~ 6 mos last year until it was extended and bumped back to 5 suggesting full production runs yet. If you want to buy in volume and see it at big box I suggest you take advantage as they will go very quickly.
  • AanchirAanchir United StatesMember Posts: 2,861
    edited March 2015
    mathew said:
    Aanchir said:

    There have been zillions of toy fire trucks made over the years. What really differentiates the LEGO City sets from all the rest?

    I'll stop you right there.  Lego City themes do tend to be redundant and thus not very desirable to collectors.

    I chose Scooby Doo because the sets appear to be derivative of other Scooby Doo toys.  Nothing to me stands out as being especially Lego like.  It's a common problem with today's Lego sets which is why you see them pushing the new Classic line in attempt to fend off critics.  
    It is obvious that they are built from LEGO, therefore, they look LEGO-like. If you cannot tell in an instant that the Scooby-Doo sets are built from LEGO, then that just means you have weak observation skills, because it is very easy to discern the individual bricks used to build each and every one of the sets.

    The argument about things needing to look "LEGO-like" to have collectible value is inane enough when it's applied to a category like constraction ( #4529 sold for $14.99 new, whereas the Bricklink price guide has nine of them selling for 4–6 times that in just the past six months). But when used against sets like the Scooby-Doo sets that are obviously brick-built it doesn't make sense any way you slice it. #10134 uses more specialized bricks and has a less blocky shape than the Scooby-Doo sets — are you going to try and tell me collectors have no interest in that set either?

  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    Should i sell my #10234 Sydney opera house.Im in 2 minds.Will i regret it!?
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    CCC said:
    I think the reason they no longer do discounts on exclusives in the US is because they don't need to. If they do them, then many people wait and they get spikes in sales figures and less income than if they do no discounts.
    If that were the primary reason, wouldn't they have also stopped offering double VIP events? Surely those give them spikes in sales (or perhaps lift sales to the average in otherwise slow months).

    I've long believed the main reason was to protect regional pricing. Correct me if I'm wrong, but hasn't the market for flipping current sets overseas dried up for exclusives since the ban on discounts?
    BumblepantsrocaoTheLoneTensordougtsPitfall69
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    romanstar said:
    Should i sell my #10234 Sydney opera house.Im in 2 minds.Will i regret it!?
    No, you shouldn't sell it.  It's still currently available.  Hold it until it's retired and its value rises.
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    /\ damn it i wanted people to say yes :D
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited March 2015
    mathew said:
    This guy knows what he's talking about.  I strongly believe that the no-discount policy on exclusives is at least partially meant to protect secondary market prices.  Lego appreciates the secondary market because it adds cachet to the brand.  However if the after market becomes over saturated it can potentially diminish the perceived value of the product. 

    CCC said:
    I don't think that Lego are trying to protect secondary market prices with their no discounts policy. For a start if they wanted to try to do that, they'd do it worldwide. I think the reason they no longer do discounts on exclusives in the US is because they don't need to. If they do them, then many people wait and they get spikes in sales figures and less income than if they do no discounts.

    This and I believe it was also due to those overseas buying cheaper LEGO in the US, even with shipping fees, than what they have to pay in their own country, at least that is what I thought I heard on this very forum.
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited March 2015
    With the #60064 Arctic Supply Plane already discontinued and the scarcity of #60062 Arctic Icebreaker (no store in 50 mile radius of me has it in stock) is now the best time with the sale going on at TRU/Amazon to pick up the remainder of this theme? (This doesn't include the accessory pack which I completely missed out on).

    I'm a little concerned that this theme will up and vanish come Spring. Btw, this is regarding having the theme as a collection and not for resale.

  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    I have the base camp and just got the icebreaker, thinking about the rest as well, it's a cool them IMO
    VorpalRyu
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,289
    ^^ I wouldn't be surprised if Arctic disappears as Divers starts hitting shelves which could be as early as May.
    VorpalRyu
  • juddtaylorjuddtaylor Member Posts: 27
    Thoughts on red 5?
  • juddtaylorjuddtaylor Member Posts: 27
    If you had $450 to spend on double points, would red 5 be bumping other stuff out to make it in that list?
    FollowsCloselyjuggles7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^No, at this point, Red Five isn't even on my list. Are you talking as an investment piece or for your collection?
  • juddtaylorjuddtaylor Member Posts: 27
    Both, sorta. Buy because I like it, sell it if it becomes valuable.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    edited March 2015
    ^^^ @Pitfall, GOLD!!! leader we're starting our attack run...

    @Bumblepants, it would not surprise me, the Divers replacing Arctic, sound argument there, can't keep every sub-theme going forever. The only #60064 s we came across were in one TRU the other side of town & #60062 s are definitely selling below RRP now at most retailers here.
    xiahna
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    If you had $450 to spend on double points, would red 5 be bumping other stuff out to make it in that list?
    If you have not yet reached your goal for Red 5, double points would be a good time to grab a couple more. I have met my goal and I am done.
    TheLoneTensor
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,896
    Chubbles said:
    I have the base camp and just got the icebreaker, thinking about the rest as well, it's a cool them IMO
    Frankly, I think even when retired, you're not going to have to pay much over retail to get these.
    TheLoneTensorjuggles7bobabricks
  • superstarbeejaysuperstarbeejay Member Posts: 121
    Is there an updated list anywhere currently available sets sorted by release date, oldest first?

    I know age isn't the best indicator of likelihood of eol but I would still like to have a vague idea of which sets have been around the longest to inform my buying decisions.
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    ^ 1) Go to the Query Builder (http://brickset.com/queries/add)
    2) Create Query:
    SELECT * FROM Sets
    WHERE (USAvailable = 1) AND (Pieces > 1)
    ORDER BY YearFrom ASC

    Or just click here.
    Pitfall69chuckpCCC
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Considering the Red 5 UCS X-Wing will likely be gone before the end of this year, you might be able to do a quick flip (buy now and sell closer to Christmas) with the new movie coming out in December. I expect the SW sets (especially the UCS sets) will be a hotter commodity during 4Q15.
    FollowsCloselystarwarfan77bobabricks
  • superstarbeejaysuperstarbeejay Member Posts: 121
    Thanks followsclosely, not seen the query builder before.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited March 2015
    I am not a big fan of "If you had $xxx, what Lego set would you buy?" questions. My answer will be different based on certain criteria. Do you have the set already? Is the set for your collection or resale? These are things I need to know. For instance. I personally like the Sandcrawler better than Red Five UCS X Wing. I think it will do better than Red Five and I think it is the superior set. If you want both, get the X Wing first since it has been out a year longer. I don't think we will see another Sandcrawler for a very long time, whereas this is the 2nd UCS X Wing and there has been several minifig scale X wings released.
    xeeeejmakBuriedinBricks
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...from a rarity standpoint, the Sandcrawler wins hands down. But I would expect the UCS X-Wing to be in higher demand because it is a much more iconic set than the Sandcrawler. Luke doesn't drive a Sandcrawler, and the darn things don't shoot at anything...they only get shot at and destroyed (apparently). Luke does fly an X-Wing (in all three episodes) and actually destroys an entire moon-sized battle station. If I'm a kid, I go with the more affordable option with offensive capabilities. :smile:

    That said, as an AFOL and someone who wants to enjoy the build and the finished model I go with the Sandcrawler.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I think alot of the potential for Red 5 has been eaten away by its overpricing and alot of newer resellers jumping onboard. If it goes on sale May 4 at $99.99 it will reappear on my radar though. If it is for your personal collection and not for resale I would buy sooner rather than later.
    VorpalRyuPitfall69
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 950
    No way it is going down to $99.99, it is selling just fine at $199.99.
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    bit of advice need please.bought lego creator fire brigade off someone but when i got it, it had a crease around 3 inches around one edge,i bought this for an investment,will this make much difference to the future price??Thanks
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    How much did you pay for it?
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    £200
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited March 2015
    romanstar said:
    bit of advice need please.bought lego creator fire brigade off someone but when i got it, it had a crease around 3 inches around one edge,i bought this for an investment,will this make much difference to the future price??Thanks
    Well the higher the price it goes for the more likely someone will want a 'perfect' box. So when you sell it you will need to note it as a dented box or that the box has imperfections (and pics always help). Even then, I imagine the FB will be a sought after set and people will be buying it at higher prices, warts on the box and all, but you may have to discount it a bit the higher it gets.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Me personally i would have rather paid the extra £40 and got two Pet Shops than one damaged box Fire Brigade.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited March 2015
    Me personally i would have rather paid the extra £40 and got two Pet Shops than one damaged box Fire Brigade.
    Well This is where opinions are going to differ. Obviously when it comes to numbers you always would rather have two than one I think.
    However, I think the 1 Fire Brigade (even if dented) will do far better than 1 Pet shop in the long run. LEGO will likely build another set like pet shop (maybe not a pet shop but a townhouse and a small shop with rooms above) whereas I do not see them doing another fire station any time soon.
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,651
    edited March 2015
    I have finally committed myself to only collect every Simpsons and Modular Building sets, sometimes the odd LEGO Exclusive or Ideas sets will be cool and refreshing. When you you guys think the following sets will be EOL? I was shocked when we lost some 2012 and 2013 exclusives, I will be very disappointed to miss out on these.

    -Parisian Restaurant
    -The Simpsons House
    -MetalBeard's Sea Cow
    -The Dark Knight Tumbler

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited March 2015
    Adzbadboy said:
    I have finally committed myself to only collect every Simpsons and Modular Building sets. When you you guys think the following sets will be EOL:

    Parisian Restaurant
    The Simpsons House
    MetalBeard's Sea Cow
    The Dark Knight Tumbler

    As all being guesses:
    Parisian Restaurant -2 years from now (PS and PC still have to go)
    Simpsons house -this year (to be replaced by Kwik E mart)
    Sea Cow - this year (most Movie sets are EOLing now)
    Tumbler - a year from the fall this year -So late next year (just came out this past holiday)

    By 'from now' being rough estimates, more than likely they will run out of stocks toward the later part of the year whereas it is spring now
    I know there are those speculating that Tumbler will be gone by end of this year but I do not see that occurring.

    AdeelZubair
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Me personally i would have rather paid the extra £40 and got two Pet Shops than one damaged box Fire Brigade.
    Well This is where opinions are going to differ. Obviously when it comes to numbers you always would rather have two than one I think.
    However, I think the 1 Fire Brigade (even if dented) will do far better than 1 Pet shop in the long run. LEGO will likely build another set like pet shop (maybe not a pet shop but a townhouse and a small shop with rooms above) whereas I do not see them doing another fire station any time soon.
     All i was saying is i think two PS's will get to £400 before one fire brigade gets there.

      I do agree though in the long run one FB will be demand more than the one PS
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    Me personally i would have rather paid the extra £40 and got two Pet Shops than one damaged box Fire Brigade.
    Well This is where opinions are going to differ. Obviously when it comes to numbers you always would rather have two than one I think.
    However, I think the 1 Fire Brigade (even if dented) will do far better than 1 Pet shop in the long run. LEGO will likely build another set like pet shop (maybe not a pet shop but a townhouse and a small shop with rooms above) whereas I do not see them doing another fire station any time soon.
     All i was saying is i think two PS's will get to £400 before one fire brigade gets there.

      I do agree though in the long run one FB will be demand more than the one PS
    Gotcha, yeah would rather have two of the PS than 1 FB. But that can be said of many situations.
    I would almost rather have 3 Palace Cinemas instead of 1 FB and 2 Pet shops.
  • AdeelZubairAdeelZubair London, UKMember Posts: 2,651
    Adzbadboy said:
    I have finally committed myself to only collect every Simpsons and Modular Building sets. When you you guys think the following sets will be EOL:

    Parisian Restaurant
    The Simpsons House
    MetalBeard's Sea Cow
    The Dark Knight Tumbler

    As all being guesses:
    Parisian Restaurant -2 years from now (PS and PC still have to go)
    Simpsons house -this year (to be replaced by Kwik E mart)
    Sea Cow - this year (most Movie sets are EOLing now)
    Tumbler - a year from the fall this year -So late next year (just came out this past holiday)

    By 'from now' being rough estimates, more than likely they will run out of stocks toward the later part of the year whereas it is spring now
    I know there are those speculating that Tumbler will be gone by end of this year but I do not see that occurring.

    Your right we still have two modulars to EOL so I think it might be gone by December 2016 and that the Pet Shop and Palace Cinema will be gone after this year just like last year.

    It's odd because thinking that the Simpsons House will be the next Death Star, plus it's only been a year so far.

    I see the Sea Cow and Tumbler gone by December 2015.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Me personally i would have rather paid the extra £40 and got two Pet Shops than one damaged box Fire Brigade.
    Well This is where opinions are going to differ. Obviously when it comes to numbers you always would rather have two than one I think.
    However, I think the 1 Fire Brigade (even if dented) will do far better than 1 Pet shop in the long run. LEGO will likely build another set like pet shop (maybe not a pet shop but a townhouse and a small shop with rooms above) whereas I do not see them doing another fire station any time soon.
     All i was saying is i think two PS's will get to £400 before one fire brigade gets there.

      I do agree though in the long run one FB will be demand more than the one PS
    Gotcha, yeah would rather have two of the PS than 1 FB. But that can be said of many situations.
    I would almost rather have 3 Palace Cinemas instead of 1 FB and 2 Pet shops.
    Yes, but @romanstar paid £200 /$297 USD for the Fire Brigade post retirement. In order for him to make any real money, he would have to sell the FB at around $500. How long will it take for Fire Brigade to reach $500? As soon as Pet Shop retires, they will be selling for probably around $250. I don't think buying Fire Brigade was the wise choice here. It will never reach CC, MS, or even GG money.
    SuperTrampmadforLEGO
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    ^Yeah I can see the Simpsons House sticking around for another year or two. There's no reason why they can't sell both Simpsons sets at the same time.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    No way The Tumbler retires this year.
    Dadjuggles7BrickDancercardgeniusdougtsFollowsClosely
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    @Pitfall69 You never know.Everybody loves Firemen :)
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,667
    edited March 2015
    ^Yeah I can see the Simpsons House sticking around for another year or two. There's no reason why they can't sell both Simpsons sets at the same time.
    Does not mean that LEGO will keep both out. Both are Simpson sets and at 199.99 USD. I would not be surprised in the slightest if it is gone by end of the year.

    As for the FB vs 2 Pet shops, again if you could buy two PS instead of 1 FB, I agree with others, I would have gone with 2 PS only because you are getting 2 sets for what you would have had to pay for one (and those two sets will also likely climb a lot in EOL value). But I will dispute the idea that FB will never reach at least GG level at some point. I just chuckle a bit to people putting down FB, as I recall many people saying it would not even have gotten where it is now because of being on sale too much and being out so long. I would not be surprised to see it being 400 USD by this time next year.

    Now if LEGO should happen to do another Fire Station mod, and you can never say never, then maybe it will not reach epic money, but if LEGO does not do another fire station mod it will be just as iconic IMO as GG, Market Street or Cafe Corner (though I agree it will be unlikely to hit CC or MS money at least not until it is out of circulation for a long long time).

    On a somewhat related note, I notice #10211 has risen in price recently. At least from about 240 about 1-2 months ago to now around 280 USD now
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    Adz, you'll definitely want to get the Sea Cow first, then the Tumbler and Simpsons House, then the Parisian Restaurant.
    AdeelZubair
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    No way The Tumbler retires this year.
    The UCS Tumbler is probably one of my all-time favorite sets Lego has ever released. It's price point is fair, it's very iconic, it's AFOL fodder, and...well...it's just beautiful!

    Some thoughts on the EOLing of the UCS Tumbler:
    1. Contrary to what the Brickset database currently says, the UCS Tumbler was released in mid-August 2014; not in December 2014. Either that or I was able to purchase mine 4 months before everyone else. Yes, time flies...it's already been out for 7 months, albeit in limited supply.
    2. There are very few (well, actually one) data points for non SW-themed UCS sets. Here's looking at you #7784 UCS Batmobile (another Batman vehicle), which was only available for a few months...again per the Brickset database.
    3. There is an underlying assumption that the UCS Tumbler will be available on a similar timeline as a typical UCS SW set, and frankly that's about all we have to go on. Keep in mind that the UCS B-Wing was only available for 13 months and the UCS General Grievous was only available 12 months (in the U.S.). I know...these sets are certainly not UCS Tumblers, but they are data points if we're assuming a UCS SW timeline. The $64,000 question is: Will TLG use a UCS SW timeline for a non SW-themed set...especially when SW is always "fresh" and the UCS Tumbler is more dated?
    4. Another interesting fact is that the UCS Tumbler has only been available through [email protected] in very limited quantities (if at all) since it was released 7 months ago. A prospective buyer basically had to go into a Lego store to get a copy between September 2014 and early January 2015. Lego's approach to the sale of the UCS Tumber allows those wanting to get one WHILE putting up some barricades for those wanting to back the truck up. TLG is essentially just "trickling out" this particular set. This isn't normal TLG behavior...
    5. I can't believe I spent this much time writing this post!
    Anyway, even if the UCS Tumbler is EOL'd by the end of 2015 (which I would give even odds), it would have still be available for almost 1 1/2 years.
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    ^So, are you saying that Tumbler is a bad investment to those not willing to hold onto it for three years?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    @Farmer_John, Yes, The Tumbler was released late August, I believe the 23rd, but to VIP members. I don't know when it actually became available to the general public. So, it has been out for less than 6 months since VIP release. There isn't any reliable data on when Exclusives retire. It was also a different time when the UCS Batmobile was for sale.

    @madforLEGO , CC, MS and GG continue to rise. I based my statement mostly on that. When FB hits $400, GG may be at $1,150. When/if FB hits $500, GG may be at $1,300. FB won't and cannot keep up. Fire Brigade is the first Modular that I think most people hoarded and it was out forever and was available a long time before the ban on discounts here in the US. If you want to base my statement on current GG prices, then I guess I will still stand by my statement that FB will still not hit current GG prices in the near future. I suppose anything is possible. @doriansdad 's warehouse could blow up and the Aftermarket would lose 50% of FB's worldwide. That would create demand ;)
    Thanos75Ronyar
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