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We spend a lot of time making predictions, so I thought it would be an interesting and informational exercise to perform follow-up and share sales data from the Holiday 2014 season on how some sets actually performed.
I'm still crunching some numbers but decided not to wait to make this initial post so people could go off and do their own analysis. Are your records good enough to contribute?
I'm using 10/1/14 - 12/31/14. For simplicity, I'm ignoring fees and I'm also ignoring the value of freebies, reward points, etc. I'll post:
1. profit $
2. my ROI %
3. my Annualized ROI %
4. profit $ over MSRP
5. ROI on MSRP %
6. Annualized ROI on MSRP %
Before I post my data, I'll post just the names of the 5 best, 5 median, and 5 worst performing sets and see if people can put them in the proper categories without research.
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Try to put the following 15 sets in the correct grouping of Top 5, Median 5, and Worst 5, and rank them correctly within their group for extra credit. Try to refrain from clicking on the link as it'll expose you to aftermarket listings:
#3221 City LEGO Truck
#3661 City Bank Money Transfer
#4628 Fun w/ bricks 600-piece
#4841 HP Hogwart's Express
#5882 Dino Ambush Attack
#5885 Dino Triceratops Trapper
#7958 SW 2011 Advent Calendar
#8061 Altantis Gateway of the Squid
#8098 SW Clone Turbo Tank
#8408 City Public Transport
#10199 Winter Toy Shop
#10210 Imperial Flagship
#10212 SW Imperial Shuttle
#21110 Research Institute
#853373 Kingdoms Chess Set
WV Toy Shop
Imperial Flagship
SW Imperial Shuttle
SW Clone Turbo Tank
Fun w/ Bricks
Dino Ambush Attack
SW Advent Calendar
Dino Tricerotops Trapper
Research Institute
City Public Transport
City Lego Truck
Lego Kingdoms Chess set
City Bank Money Transfer
Atlantis
WV Toy Shop
SW Imperial Shuttle
Imperial Flagship
HP Hogwarts Express
Dino Ambush Attack
Lego Kingdoms Chess set
City Bank Money Transfer
Dino Tricerotops Trapper
Research Institute
SW Clone Turbo Tank
City Lego Truck
City Public Transport
Fun w/ Bricks
SW Advent Calendar
Atlantis
Set A initial cost $100 sold for $200 after 1 years
Set B initial cost $100 sold for $300 after 2 years
1. 2973% #5882 Dino Ambush Attack
2. 1528% #21110 Research Institute (2 months)
3. 512% #4628 Fun w/ bricks 600-piece (10 months)
4. 450% #853373 Kingdoms Chess Set (8 months)
5. 375% #3221 City LEGO Truck
51. 157% #10210 Imperial Flagship
52. 154% #10199 Winter Toy Shop
53. 146% #4841 HP Hogwart's Express
54. 127% #3661 City Bank Money Transfer
55. 127% #5885 Dino Triceratops Trapper
102. 80% #8408 City Public Transport
103. 64% #7958 SW 2011 Advent Calendar
104. 57% #10212 SW Imperial Shuttle
105. 48% #8098 SW Clone Turbo Tank
106. 36% #8061 Altantis Gateway of the Squid
Of course, that's also one of the two types of reselling that LEGO are mostly concerned about.
I don't really see that this is an argument for diversifying. The winners seem to be cheap sets and quick flips. And in fact, if you delve a little deeper, it is an argument not just for quick flips, but quick flips before christmas. Take RI, you must have sold it for about $71 (assuming RRP of $20 paid, I don't know what tax you paid). Looking at BL prices (OK, I'm sure you didn't sell there), only 1 transaction (for 5 units) in the last 6 months in USD was above $70, in September. Otherwise in Sep-Dec very few were above $50, many are $30-40, although the maximum is high $60s. Yet if you hold out just too long, the maximum paid drops to $30 after Xmas.
So what the data seems to suggest is that the big winners are the Minecraft 21102 type sets, buy current popular sets before Christmas and flip them quick when they go OOS before christmas (the "nasty opportunist" reseller :-) ). Or buy sets that are very cheap, they will make somewhere between not a lot and a lot and you either forget about them or they are proclaimed excellent investments.
I'm sure if you take other equations you'll get very different outcomes. Start to compound properly and quick flips will rise up the charts, start to include volume, and no doubt Dino Attack will drop. Time investment per set sold (as in working, not holding), and the larger sets will rise.
For larger more business type resellers the limiting factor is likely to be storage and/or capital tied up. In those cases annualised income is more useful and unsurprisingly you'll end up not dissimilar to most retail businesses where quick turnover of product is key. If storage was the most importnat factor you might even go further to factor in the volume of each box giving you a ROI not just /$ but also /cubic foot. Presumably you should almost never hold stock beyond a year post EOL, as thats where the largest % increase in value comes, free up the capital and reinvest.
The more hobbiest reseller is likely to be limited more by actual time: packing, listing, posting. As such an annualised metric is less useful and one based on pure $ profit rather than % ROI is more important. That will lead to a smaller number of larger exclusives held for a longer period of time.
More fun - what if I paid by credit card and don't pay the bill until day 30? What if I paid by credit card and return the set if it doesn't sell by day 20? This is essentially sale or return, betting on a quick flip with the safety of returning if not.
You can get phenomenally different rates depending on how you define time elapsed in such cases. In the run up to Christmas, I can imagine it is quite easy to sell a set before the credit card bill is actually paid and also have the option of returning it if it doesn't sell (even if bad behaviour).
If I use ROI instead of annualized ROI, Ambush Attack, LEGO Truck, and 600-pc set are still in the top five of the fifteen mentioned sets, and #10212 Imperial Shuttle, whose retirement was celebrated and actually accelerated by people purchasing and posting in real time on the forum, is still dead last. That's my argument for diversifying.
Should I bother soliciting guesses for my overall top 5 ROI, or should I just post it? Does anyone have their own data to share?
Personally I would rather have just HH and TH rather than a diversified lot of smalls. No steamrollers or creative towers for me :) But if the math works with all costs included maybe I am viewing it all wrong?
Even your worst performer was a profit - I assume this means you don't sell at a loss. Does that mean you have any real dogs that won't sell at more than RRP, therefore go unsold? Because of course that is another side of the argument - some sets when you diversify will lose, but are not reported if they are not sold.
It's interesting to see the Dino one at the top. I bought a six of them when they were £2 in the UK (so about 75% off), and couldn't get more than £4 for them for a good 18 months. So I didn't bother selling them just chucked them in the back of the cupboard. I even opened 3 of them for some minifig parts* (keeping the dino sealed) and gave one away as a present. Then all of a sudden the set was selling for £15, it seemed almost out of nowhere (but probably over six months) so I managed to get rid of them. *Bear in mind I'm not really a set reseller. If I find cheap sets I purchase them normally for the parts / minifigs, and sell off what I don't want. So I'm not dipping into an investment.
So I guess sometimes slow sellers do also rise, but you still need the right buyer (and I guess not too much stock).
Even so, you must have sold the Dino one for about $70 or so, so a very good mark-up. Out of interest, how many did you manage to sell at that price?
Also, I think we'd all rather have a bunch of Haunted Houses and Town Halls than various small sets now that we know how they've appreciated. What if you picked incorrectly? Would you make the same claim with Imperial Shuttles and Fire Brigade? For the record, I'm still bullish on both of these sets, but the same money invested in random sets that retired at the same time would have yielded more this past Holiday season.
I'm also surprised that Hogwarts Castle wasn't on your short list? I sold my last one in January for $400.
Dino theme sets were among my quickest movers last season. I sold 12 Ambush Attacks at an average price of $69. Raptor Chase and Dino HQ also sold very well.
Big LEGO boxes also are damaged more easily because of the increased internal weight.
Hogwarts Castle is just a slot above the middle tier sets I posted at 161% annualized return. I was happy with it, but it's worth noting that #4736 Freeing Dobby, #4737 Quidditch Match, #4865 Forbidden Forest, and #4867 Hogwarts all did better.
Does it surprise anyone to see that no Star Wars sets made our top tiers and instead were common entries in the middle and bottom tier?
Agree - Dino was big for me. I had a pretty big inventory of sets from the walmart clearance 2 years ago that all did very well. Just have a few left now.
I also sold off most of my HP that I had left. That also sold very quickly and for gonzo money. #4737 Quidditch Match being the biggest % gainer of them all -- Avg. cost of $12, sold my last remaining inventory of them for $140 a pop.
I regret passing on literally hundreds of Freeing Dobby at Walmart. They were 30% off and considering the huge pallet they had, I took a chance to wait for 50% off. I don't remember how soon I checked back, but they were all gone, and I suspect they were just sent back to a warehouse.
Nice discussion.
You could easily turn that one off example to another
5 x #10188 as opposed to 125 x #6866 or 250 x #6865 for example
Stored correctly 125 (250) sets that size would take the minimum same space as 5 x DS
Horses for courses i suppose, but personally i prefer Newton Abbot to Royal Ascot also.
ROI
2678% #7181 UCS Tie Interceptor
2542% #4702 HP The Final Challenge
1270% #4709 HP Hogwarts Castle
1258% #3433 Ultimate NBA Arena
1061% #10014 My Own Train Caboose
953% #4479 Tie Bomber
900% #4481 Hailfire Droid
860% #4708 HP Hogwarts Express
94.61% #4736 Freeing Dobby
Those were the only items over 90% MSRP ROI. The moral of the story is, TLG needs to re-release HP sooner rather than later. :)
-4.57% #7065 Alien Mothership
Harry Potter was a huge money maker for me over the last 3 years. Even used sets were easy to sell. The new movie should bring us new sets from the "HP Theme", but I don't know if Lego wants to take another crack at releasing more HP sets.
I'm not surprised that any SW sets cracked the top 5. There are so many sets out there and I bet interest is starting to wane...until the new movie is released ;)
As far as time vs money, I like the idea of having to only buy 1 set, store, list, sell, pack and mail one set. I may not make as much money as some of the smaller sets, but for me it is a lot less hassle.
There's also the purchase limitations that Amazon and Lego S@H put on certain sets. This needs to be addressed as well. Sure, you can get larger % returns on smaller sets, but if you have to buy 10 of them to make as much TOTAL PROFIT as 1 larger set, that puts you in a bind.
1) There is still a lot of SW stuff available at retail. Most of the sets being bought before Xmas are going to be presents. Why overpay for an old set, when you can buy a similar set from the same theme at retail?
2) Normally there are not such good deals on SW sets in sales (such as 90% off), simply because people will start buying it (to use or for reselling) when the discounts are much lower. Being able to knock a large chunk of the purchase price really pushes a set up the list. Not getting those large discounts will hurt the position.
The build itself was nice and pleasant, as the technical question of how it is structured starts to play out in the flesh. However, it may not be so entertaining on a second go-around once the magic is revealed. As the high part count and lack of variety can become tedious.