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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited March 2015
    prevere said:
    Buddy sent this link to me. Thought I'd share it. Personally, I could never handle purchasing/investing something anywhere near this big. However, by the looks of it, seems to me that this guy overbought sets that didn't take off and is now dumping.

    http://cleveland.craigslist.org/tag/4912673105.html

    When I saw this link, it reminded me that my personal Lego addiction is more of the "slow, cut by 1,000 knives" variety; not a "quick, hit by an axe" variety. Purchasing this lot for $75K would be the latter...
  • brickupdatebrickupdate Member Posts: 1,020
    prevere If you need assistance in unloading all those modulars before the "market bursts," just let us know. 
    ;)
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    My thoughts on the $75K bunch of LEGOS.

    - A person had money to burn and invested in LEGOS.  Nothing wrong with that, necessarily.
    - Looks like they just bought random sets without much clue on what may rise in value the most.  Like picking stocks by throwing darts at a dartboard.
    - I didn't see any of the hot items.  Modulars, trains, shuttle expedition, etc. Oops!
    - If you have the money the buying is the easy, and fun, part.
    - Then comes the storage.  Looks like they have that covered.  Nice shelving.
    - Then comes the reselling.  A lot of listings on eBay, and a lot of time spent on arriving at a price that buyers will purchase at, but make a decent return.
    - Finally, the boxing and shipping.  Probably the least fun of all of it.  Buying boxes, packing, mailing, trips to UPS.

    I think the person simply got in over their head.  The honeymoon is over.  It has clicked in their head - "Now that I have all of these LEGO sets what am I going to do with them? !!!"

    juggles7
  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    I'm thinking that one of his local toy's r us stores went out of business and he cleaned them out. Wayyy too much episode 1, 2, 3 garbage that nobody has any interest in and yeah, city stuff that is worth retail price if you're lucky.
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    There's another thing. Listing, selling, and packing/shipping a set is a far more tolerable experience when it results in a healthy profit compared with the dog work of doing this when it's barely covering costs (at best).
    juggles7
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,460
    It wouldn't surprise me if there *were* some hot items in there at one time. But then those are the ones that sell well, and so have either already sold or are elsewhere in the collection and not for general sale in the job lot.
    madforLEGOPitfall69
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    I'm virtually certain that the seller's MO was to buy sets that were discounted. I'm pretty confident I could tell you when, where, and for how much the seller acquired 90% of the pictured sets.
    BuriedinBrickschuckp
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited March 2015
    cloaked7 said:
    My thoughts on the $75K bunch of LEGOS.

    - A person had money to burn and invested in LEGOS.  Nothing wrong with that, necessarily.
    - Looks like they just bought random sets without much clue on what may rise in value the most.  Like picking stocks by throwing darts at a dartboard.
    - I didn't see any of the hot items.  Modulars, trains, shuttle expedition, etc. Oops!
    - If you have the money the buying is the easy, and fun, part.
    - Then comes the storage.  Looks like they have that covered.  Nice shelving.
    - Then comes the reselling.  A lot of listings on eBay, and a lot of time spent on arriving at a price that buyers will purchase at, but make a decent return.
    - Finally, the boxing and shipping.  Probably the least fun of all of it.  Buying boxes, packing, mailing, trips to UPS.

    I think the person simply got in over their head.  The honeymoon is over.  It has clicked in their head - "Now that I have all of these LEGO sets what am I going to do with them? !!!"

    Well like @CCC said, there is the possibility that they sold all of the 'sought after' sets already and this is what is left (some exceptions aside, like the HH and original sandcrawler for example). 75K for everything is ambitious though IMO. Most people would offer far far less, border lining on insulting to the seller. Like anything else you are buying something you likely are not flipping easily or quickly.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Pitfall69 said:
    I am finding it very annoying that people have to create new threads to ask a question about retiring sets and their aftermarket prices. Yes, there is a lot of information in this thread, but all one has to do is perform a simple search or just ask the question in this thread. I have even used Google to perform a search and at times it directs me to this forum.

    I do love going back in time within this thread :)
    I like the one-stop shop myself...

    To that point, I know we talk a lot about boxed sets on this thread but I wanted to get some thoughts on polybags in the aftermarket. Do others on this thread snap up polybags to resell or is it even a good idea? They are generally cheaper to purchase, easier to store, and (some, such as the Chrome Darth Vader) have appreciated well. Christmas polys, "chrome" polys, and SuperHero polys all seem to do pretty well. City-themed polys, Chima (of course) polys, and Ninjago polys all seem to be weak in general. I'm not sure about Friends polys though...

    Any thoughts or nuggets of wisdom on polybags?

  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,108
    ^great change of pace @Farmer_John from the usual mundane and repetitive postings. I've never delved into polybag collecting or reselling as I believe it's spreading my model too thin and I would rather focus on those items that appreciate well in the aftermarket or that are just highly sought after. I know some are as you mentioned but I think polybags tend to be that niche that you either love or don't - I think there are more collectors in this particular realm than there are resellers but I could be wrong.
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    edited March 2015
    Any thoughts on if there is room for #70728 Battle for Ninjago City to climb to a good price or will the upcoming Exclusive Ninjago Temple keep it down?



    Good question.Thinking of buying this set for a while but knowing me i'll just get fed up and build it!!! B)


  • novicebuilder101novicebuilder101 Member Posts: 130
    ^How is the resale on Ninjago sets in general?

    I don't know anything about the theme but the value seems to be heavily minifigure driven and I have no idea which figs to look out for. Somebody please explain this madness as it seems to be a fun set to collect! 
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Pitfall69 said:
    Well, he did say in his listing to make an offer. As long as Lego remains popular and keep putting out interesting sets, I don't think there will be that much of decline in the Aftermarket.
    When the number of resellers exceeds the number of people willing to pay extra for a retired set, then reselling will no longer be worth your time. 
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    I like the one-stop shop myself...

    To that point, I know we talk a lot about boxed sets on this thread but I wanted to get some thoughts on polybags in the aftermarket. Do others on this thread snap up polybags to resell or is it even a good idea? They are generally cheaper to purchase, easier to store, and (some, such as the Chrome Darth Vader) have appreciated well. Christmas polys, "chrome" polys, and SuperHero polys all seem to do pretty well. City-themed polys, Chima (of course) polys, and Ninjago polys all seem to be weak in general. I'm not sure about Friends polys though...

    Any thoughts or nuggets of wisdom on polybags?

    I buy polys when they are on sale, or when I see one that isn't common. I have done ok with them. For me, they are so easy to store and list. Even if I am barely doubling my money, it is easy and makes for an easy way to keep top rated seller status. I need to get rid of a lot though. I have been lazy with listing recently and I need to fix that :)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I only collect polybags with Minifigures in them ie TC-14, Jor-El... I don't collect the minibuilds or Creator polybags. There is a separate thread to discuss Minifigures and their Secondary value.

    I do have items like the Flower Cart, but I may either sell it or add it to my DA. I think what tends not to be discussed here are the small boxed Holiday sets that Lego comes out with every year. I wouldn't actually buy them for resale, but they are technically free (because you have to spend $$$ to obtain one for free) Some of these actually go for some pretty decent money $20-35 range. I really don't know if these little sets go up in value that much, but if you don't mind making $15-25 a set, then that isn't too bad I guess.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...the holiday sets seem (at least in most of the listings I've seen) do pretty well. One of my favorite holiday sets is the #3300014 Christmas set they gave away a couple years ago. It goes nicely with the Winter-theme sets, and they were selling them over the counter for $8-10 after Christmas at Lego store in Texas that I visited.

    But I digress...

    Most of the SuperHero polybags (Thor, Hawkeye, Iron-Man, Iron Patriot, Hulk, Lex Luthor, Batman, Robin) have appreciated well IF you could get them at a decent price in the first place. Some of the SW polybags have also done well. Other licensed themes such as Indiana Jones and PotC have done well too. City, Chima, Creator (and other themes that start with "C")...not so much. I kind of wonder themes like Friends and Elves will do over time...
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    Polybags have generally been a solid resell opportunity for me, City and Creator included.  The key as you say is getting a good buy-in price.  

    These days, I shy away from Target polybags.  In my area I'm lucky to find anything at 30% off.  I know there are massive quantities where people bought in at 50% or 70% off. That means I either get a slimmer profit or a long hold time.  

    It seems to me that the minifig is what drives the polybag value.  Take away the minifig and SH (#30162) or SW (#30053) are generally uninspiring.  Therefore I don't see a lot of potential in Friends or Elves.  (Full disclosure - Despite data saying I am wrong, I cannot fathom long-term appreciation of anything in the Friends line.)


  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    edited March 2015
    goshe7 said:
    I cannot fathom long-term appreciation of anything in the Friends line.
    Not every theme is minifigure-driven.  Friends sets are not, since all the major characters have appeared in dozens of offerings.  But don't you see how 5-10 years from now, someone will want a Dolphin Cruiser? 

    But if you're just referring to Friends polybags, then I agree with you and I wouldn't be investing in those. 

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    prevere If you need assistance in unloading all those modulars before the "market bursts," just let us know. 
    ;)
    haha. I just have a couple sealed. The rest are built.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    mooman66 said:
    It does stink for those who want to complete the collection of a theme though. IMO It is one thing if a theme line ends, but another if one set from the theme goes out so fast while the rest of the theme is available for sale.
    My kids love the subtheme and I was waiting for double points to buy the plane.  It never even occurred to me to monitor it until it was too late.  I was able to score 3 at $75 each shipped from Europe this week, which is better than the $100 items I am seeing now.  My goal is just to sell two and pay for the third.  If I hit $125 + shipping, I'll be satisfied.  
    I've given up trying to earn any income, and am happy if I make enough to buy stuff for the kids.  Ungrateful brats, they are!  
    Thanks for the input.
    I'm kind of curious on the potential of the 60064 arctic set, as I've found a possible source of them, just the cost is AU$80 (currently US$62.44 / £40.62)...
    xiahna
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    Also found a supplier with the 75025 Defender-Class Corvette, with the deal they're offering it works out to AU$105 per set (currently US$81.96 / £53.31)... I'd need to buy two the get the deal, would be nice to get mine for free, but I'd probably looking at needing grab three or four to manage that, wouldn't I?
    xiahna
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I tend to stay away from Star Wars sets that are unrelated to the movies. I don't play MMO games either. To me, this is a niche set and I have no idea what it will do in the Aftermarket.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,294
    Whilst I don't see it happening, the idea that we always throw away that Lego would always be worth the brick price is surely largely nonsense. When you actually stop and think about it the actions that would lead to a lego bubble bursting would almost certainly lead to the parts market imploding too, made 100 times worse by people dumping cheap lego sets or parting out ones that wont sell.
    I certainly see the logic, but I think if there is a sudden burst (much like you I don't think it would happen) the first to jump ship would likely be those with no interest in Lego beyond how much the stuff they've stashed away 'because it will be worth something one day' who probably only sell through eBay and sell other random crap that they assume will be worth something. Chances are they won't think to part out sets and even if they did, they'd likely see it as too much work. Once they dump their stock and cause an initial slump across the board as cheap sets with rare parts are likely to be bought by resellers willing to part out, the result would most likely be that the market would correct itself so to speak.

    It's all largely academic though, I think the only thing that makes a toy collecting bubble is when you get the full beanie baby scenario, which Lego is massively different from.
  • VorpalRyuVorpalRyu AustraliaMember Posts: 2,304
    Pitfall69 said:
    I tend to stay away from Star Wars sets that are unrelated to the movies. I don't play MMO games either. To me, this is a niche set and I have no idea what it will do in the Aftermarket.
    I'll never play the Old Republic, because a) Its online only & b) its EA (After the issues with Mass Effect 3, they are dead to me), but the pictures of the Defender, remind me of the ships in KOTOR & KOTOR II, love the design.

    I would just buy one, but that price is with getting half off the second set... Otherwise I'm looking at AU$140, which I'd prefer not to have to pay for it.
    xiahna
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    VorpalRyu said:
    Also found a supplier with the 75025 Defender-Class Corvette, with the deal they're offering it works out to AU$105 per set (currently US$81.96 / £53.31)... I'd need to buy two the get the deal, would be nice to get mine for free, but I'd probably looking at needing grab three or four to manage that, wouldn't I?
    Believe you mean Cruiser, not Corvette. :)  In the US, that was a TRU exclusive, and TRU still has the item in stock.  Bad news is that Lego could continuing producing them for TRU exclusively, like they did with SH Funhouse Escape, SW Battle of Endor, MF Vampyre Castle, and others.  TRU killed the aftermarket potential for those sets, and it could happen with the 75025, as well.  It's a gamble. 
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    I'm still wondering about Funhouse Escape and its potential. The Battle of Endor I got for $60 USD at Walmart and that is the only one I bought. I also only have 1 Vampyre Castle. It might bring someone a profit if they bought it at a rock bottom price, but there were other sets to put your money into back then. I happen to have the one with the Glow n the Dark stickers. This variation might become more or less valuable than the one without the Glow n the Dark stickers depending on how "rare" it is, but that's wishful thinking.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited March 2015
    Pitfall69 said:
    I'm still wondering about Funhouse Escape and its potential. The Battle of Endor I got for $60 USD at Walmart and that is the only one I bought. I also only have 1 Vampyre Castle. It might bring someone a profit if they bought it at a rock bottom price, but there were other sets to put your money into back then. I happen to have the one with the Glow n the Dark stickers. This variation might become more or less valuable than the one without the Glow n the Dark stickers depending on how "rare" it is, but that's wishful thinking.
    I see the Funhouse doing well as long as all the figures are not redone. While a few in the set are, Harley has red arms in the funhouse (believe she has white arms in the Jokerland set) and the Riddler has it outfit and it is different than the Riddler chase set, so I'm thinking the funhouse could do alright, especially as the Jokerland is 119.99 and if deemed an 'exclusive' here in the US that set will not be discounted. The problem with the other sets is that Battle of Endor was done twice I believe, and also many of the figures in that set could be found in lesser, cheaper sets. While the Vampire Castle is not doing great, it is rising in price as well. So while you are not killing it with these sets, they are rising, albeit slowly in price.
    I think the cautionary tale should be more pointed sets like #4207 Garage and #7754 Mon Calamari Cruisers, both TRU exclusives that stayed way too long and for too much. 7754 is just a train wreck and the Garage is rising but slowly after TRUs 66 dollar sales of these.
    juggles7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^The Battle of Endor hasn't been done twice, but all the smaller sets that Lego made could be put together and you pretty much have the Battle of Endor. The Ewoks and their gliders, the AT-ST and the battle packs.
    juggles7
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 867
    ^ Yes but the Battle of Endor bunker is somewhat iconic and it was also quite well done and a fun build.  (Maybe not the most stable build but worth it because of the explosion fun.)  
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    I've been fascinated by the glow/non-glow versions of the MF line.  I thought there would be much more interest in the glow versions than has been the case.  People don't even seem to know that there are two versions of (some of) the sets.
    pharmjod
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I don't think they'll know or care about spelling errors on boxes, either.
    pharmjodRonyar
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    Lego set variations don't tend to give way to wildly different prices to date - but the glow ones from MF and Artic Batman will test that theory soon.

    That said, best collectible variation ever? My vote goes to the 1989 Billy Ripken card.

    From Wikipedia:
    In 1989, Ripken's Fleer card showed him holding a bat with the expletive "F*** FACE" written in plain view on the knob of the bat. Fleer subsequently rushed to correct the error, and in their haste, released versions in which the text was scrawled over with a marker, whited out with correction fluid, and also airbrushed. On the final, corrected version, Fleer obscured the offensive words with a black box (this was the version included in all factory sets). Both the original card and many of the corrected versions have become collector's items as a result. There are at least ten different variations of this card.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited March 2015
    prevere said:
    Lego set variations don't tend to give way to wildly different prices to date - but the glow ones from MF and Artic Batman will test that theory soon.

    That said, best collectible variation ever? My vote goes to the 1989 Billy Ripken card.

    From Wikipedia:
    In 1989, Ripken's Fleer card showed him holding a bat with the expletive "F*** FACE" written in plain view on the knob of the bat. Fleer subsequently rushed to correct the error, and in their haste, released versions in which the text was scrawled over with a marker, whited out with correction fluid, and also airbrushed. On the final, corrected version, Fleer obscured the offensive words with a black box (this was the version included in all factory sets). Both the original card and many of the corrected versions have become collector's items as a result. There are at least ten different variations of this card.
    My friend had the uncensored card. It was very appealing to kids that were 11-12 as well.
    Pitfall69 said:
    ^The Battle of Endor hasn't been done twice, but all the smaller sets that Lego made could be put together and you pretty much have the Battle of Endor. The Ewoks and their gliders, the AT-ST and the battle packs.
    Pretty sure there was more to this set. Maybe was made a while then seems to dissappear then come back, but I think there was some sort of pause during its production. Myabe I am just remembering wrong
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    Whats peoples views on the tumbler in the aftermarket?
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    edited March 2015
    ^^ You are remembering correctly
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    romanstar said:
    Whats peoples views on the tumbler in the aftermarket?
    The"black tank" will do just fine. As soon as I built it, I realized I would have paid $400-$500 for it.
    brickupdateFarmer_JohnBrickDancerDevastator
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    rocao said:
    ^^ You are remembering correctly
    ??
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    '^^' means two posts above
    Pitfall69bobabricks
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
    Cheers ;)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited March 2015
    rocao said:
    ^^ You are remembering correctly

    Pitfall69 said:
    ^The Battle of Endor hasn't been done twice, but all the smaller sets that Lego made could be put together and you pretty much have the Battle of Endor. The Ewoks and their gliders, the AT-ST and the battle packs.
    Pretty sure there was more to this set. Maybe was made a while then seems to dissappear then come back, but I think there was some sort of pause during its production. Myabe I am just remembering wrong
    You are remembering correctly. Lego re-released the set on Lego [email protected] UK in 2011.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    edited March 2015
    I think the TOPPS XRated C3PO card is pretty epic myself

    http://pleasekillme.com/vintage-1977-star-wars-xrated-obscene-error-card/

    (PS, its not that bad, just hilarious).
    preverebobabricks
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Pitfall69 said:
    I'm still wondering about Funhouse Escape and its potential.
    Finishing up selling mine. Pairing it with another set to catch a break on DIM shipping. Already rolling the funds into imminently retiring exclusives. No good money to be made on this one IMO. Resellers have a near unlimited supply and TLG is flooding the market with super heroes.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    edited March 2015
    Those gradients are so intriguing I'm not going to bother trying to reformat your quote. Anyhow, what we're talking about is not the re-release in the UK.

    It was not continuously available in the US during it's lifespan. It was listed as 'sold out' on [email protected] and gone from retailers for 4-6 months a little over a year into its lifecycle. It eventually returned to all retail channels. I have receipts from [email protected], Target, and Walmart.
    Pitfall69madforLEGO
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    romanstar said:
    Whats peoples views on the tumbler in the aftermarket?
    $$$
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited March 2015
    ^^^That's funny...kinda ;)

    So, back to the Battle of Endor set. The only "exclusive" figures to that set are Wicket and Princess Leia and the two Endor Troopers (Although only the torsos are exclusive to the set) Paploo was available in a magnet set I believe. Chief Chirpa was exclusive to the set until Ewok Village came out.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    @rocao , quotes do not work in Mobile Mode. I went to desktop and used the "quote" button and I got that. I'm actually fed up with it not working in Mobile Mode. You are free to make fun.

    As far as the Battle of Endor; I didn't know it was "out of production" for that amount of time. No need to present any receipts to prove anything ;) My point originally was that there aren't two different Battle of Endor sets, ie Jabba's Palace.
    BACbrix
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197

    romanstar said:
    Whats peoples views on the tumbler in the aftermarket?
    $$$
    I was thinking that myself.I read on one forum that one poster had bought a shed load of them since they've come out.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^He's got big problems if he is storing them in his shed ;)
    TXLegoguyjuggles7GothamConstructionCo
  • romanstarromanstar Member Posts: 197
     :D 
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    @Pitfall69 My oldest son lives in a furnished shed in our yard... B)
    bobabricks
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