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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,108
    ^may have to take you to the PP for that!
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    @TheLoneTensor lighten up geez people. It was a reference to Cleveland Show
    jcb193
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    Is anyone else noticing that Amazon.com US is starting to look like Walmart with constant price changes in the  5 to 50 cent range instead of seeing any substantial price drops?
    Farmer_John
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 903
    amazon.com US? is there another .com site :wink: 
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    stevemack said:
    amazon.com US? is there another .com site :wink: 
    There are Amazon country sites all over the world last I checked. I always specify which I am referring to in the forum as there are more than just those in America using Brickset.

    BACbrix
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited March 2015
    He's kidding with you referring to the .com, which is exclusive to the US.  For example, there's no "Amazon.com" France.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    He's kidding with you referring to the .com, which is exclusive to the US.  For example, there's no "Amazon.com" France.
    Yeah, should have realized that, my humble apologies to all who were offended by this grievous error.
    Let me restate and correct this question:

    Is anyone else noticing that Amazon (US) is starting to look like Walmart with constant price changes in the 5 to 50 cent range instead of seeing any substantial price drops?
    VorpalRyu
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 648
    To answer your question about Amazon, yes, I have noticed their lack of substantial price drops, as well as mediocre Warehouse Deals, and I'm not happy about it! For instance, they have all of their Hobbit sets listed at full price, when I used to be able to great great Amazon discounts on Hobbit and LotR sets. I would expect more significant deals on a dying theme, at least. 
  • thenosthenos Twin Cities, MNMember Posts: 416
    edited March 2015
    It's been going on for months. Lots of months.

    The last significant discounts I remember were in the run up to Christmas 2013.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    edited March 2015
    To answer your question about Amazon, yes, I have noticed their lack of substantial price drops, as well as mediocre Warehouse Deals, and I'm not happy about it! For instance, they have all of their Hobbit sets listed at full price, when I used to be able to great great Amazon discounts on Hobbit and LotR sets. I would expect more significant deals on a dying theme, at least. 
    I think the last Hobbit wave was produced in limited quantities.  Hence the lack of discounting. The fact that The Lonely Mountain wasn't even carried in store by Walmart and Target says something. Probably has to with the poor sales of the previous sets.
    pharmjod
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    Man...I've talked about it previously in here, and I would LOVE to own The Lonely Mountain set. But each time I'm about to pull the trigger, I can't help but objectively look at the decision and think, "Sigh...this is just a few dollars away from a modular." And then I don't.
    TheLoneTensorsklambAdeelZubairBuriedinBricks
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    Unless you got Lonely Mountain at Meijer during the Santa buck promo for ~$90ish :)
    Odindusk
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    That would have been hot. I'm not sure I've ever seen it stocked at a Meijer in my area though.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    They were in Lexington. I'm sure they were in Louisville as well. Someone else may have jumped on them though. It may have been more like $84. I can't remember now, but it was a solid 34-35% I think.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,098
    Unfortunately most of us don't live near a Meijer.  I was envious reading about all of their clearance deals on Brickpicker.  
    matticus_brickspharmjod
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 903
    Does no one have a sense of humour anymore on this site...
  • makmak Member Posts: 300
    ^ i still do :D
    stevemackbobabricks
  • mountebankmountebank Member Posts: 1,237
    This didn't last long in the UK: http://shop.lego.com/en-GB/Painting-Easter-Eggs-40121 I wonder if it'll return into stock.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    edited March 2015

    ^ Pirate chess set too #40158, ony available for about a day and now listed as sold out (AU, UK & EU). http://shop.lego.com/en-AU/Chess-Set-40158?_requestid=1727853

    I can see the appeal though, 857 pieces including 20 minifigures looks like a pretty good parts/army building set and at a great price. I hope they make some more.

  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,294
    The pirates chess set is likely to be around for a while so will almost certainly be back. The easter set will probably have at least a second window for ordering. I suspect TLG are choosing to restrict the amount of initial orders to begin with and spread the availability a little more rather than have to cancel orders.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,294
    edited March 2015
    .
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    I noticed #60064 Arctic Supply Plane popped up earlier in the thread, but no real follow up.  It's already selling for $90-$100 shipped on eBay and $75-$80 shipped on BL.  What's the history on City sets with limited availability and a a short run?  I don't have the patience (or the credit) for a long term investment, but could certainly hold on until Christmas.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,257
    Any thoughts on if there is room for #70728 Battle for Ninjago City to climb to a good price or will the upcoming Exclusive Ninjago Temple keep it down?

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    Buddy sent this link to me. Thought I'd share it. Personally, I could never handle purchasing/investing something anywhere near this big. However, by the looks of it, seems to me that this guy overbought sets that didn't take off and is now dumping.

    http://cleveland.craigslist.org/tag/4912673105.html

  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    A full inventory of sealed sets would be useful as there is a lot of crap there. City Fire and Police, really?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Wow, I saw a ton more City Sets than Licensed themes. I noticed about 2 Haunted Houses, but no Modulars. I wouldn't offer anything until I saw an inventory list and even then, I would have to see the sets in person. You are basically buying a "business " and when you buy a business, you look at all of the books.
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,613
    edited March 2015

    mooman66 said:
    I noticed #60064 Arctic Supply Plane popped up earlier in the thread, but no real follow up.  It's already selling for $90-$100 shipped on eBay and $75-$80 shipped on BL.  What's the history on City sets with limited availability and a a short run?  I don't have the patience (or the credit) for a long term investment, but could certainly hold on until Christmas.
    Yeah I think I mentioned it actually :smile:. Surprising that it is gone already, wonder if it was an exclusive to Target or something. LEGO has done this before in the Mine theme with the dump truck. Gone fairly quickly, but the rest of the line stuck around for another 2 years.
    It does stink for those who want to complete the collection of a theme though. IMO It is one thing if a theme line ends, but another if one set from the theme goes out so fast while the rest of the theme is available for sale.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    A full inventory of sealed sets would be useful as there is a lot of crap there. City Fire and Police, really?
    If that's the highlights, then yikes. Thought it was interesting.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734

    Surprising that it is gone already, wonder if it was an exclusive to Target or something.
    TRU, I believe.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    It does stink for those who want to complete the collection of a theme though. IMO It is one thing if a theme line ends, but another if one set from the theme goes out so fast while the rest of the theme is available for sale.
    My kids love the subtheme and I was waiting for double points to buy the plane.  It never even occurred to me to monitor it until it was too late.  I was able to score 3 at $75 each shipped from Europe this week, which is better than the $100 items I am seeing now.  My goal is just to sell two and pay for the third.  If I hit $125 + shipping, I'll be satisfied.  
    I've given up trying to earn any income, and am happy if I make enough to buy stuff for the kids.  Ungrateful brats, they are!  
    Thanks for the input.
    VorpalRyu
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    prevere said:
    A full inventory of sealed sets would be useful as there is a lot of crap there. City Fire and Police, really?
    If that's the highlights, then yikes. Thought it was interesting.

      I bet he wakes up in a cold sweat regularly.
    Pitfall69
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,454
    prevere said:
    A full inventory of sealed sets would be useful as there is a lot of crap there. City Fire and Police, really?
    If that's the highlights, then yikes. Thought it was interesting.
    There is Spongebob too. :-) 11 years collecting. That's BS and I don't mean brickset. It's 11 years purchasing for resale and this is the crap that won't sell with enough profit.
    BumblepantsPitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    prevere said:
    Buddy sent this link to me. Thought I'd share it. Personally, I could never handle purchasing/investing something anywhere near this big. However, by the looks of it, seems to me that this guy overbought sets that didn't take off and is now dumping.

    http://cleveland.craigslist.org/tag/4912673105.html

    I was trying to fly under the radar, but it appears someone planted a webcam in my Lego room. Darn, darn, darn, darny, darn!
    matticus_bricksPitfall69EKSam
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,904
    He's dreaming if he thinks he's gonna get anywhere in the ballpark of $75k.
    TXLegoguy
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515
    I can't believe nobody else jumped on the pile of Spongbob earlier. :)

    Looks like there is enough teasers of resale value (HH, some of the SW) that someone might be optimistic.   900 sets for $75,000  = $83 on average.  Spending about 15 seconds on the pictures, I don't see it coming close to adding up.
    FollowsCloselyTXLegoguyPitfall69
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,108
    ^^^^^^^^^^^ Yeah definitely seems like this person is just trying to "break even" or maybe thinks they deserve some capital gains of some sort due to all the years of hard work and "thinks" it's worth 75K.

    I mean....thats a lot of money.  HAHA.
  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 494
    edited March 2015
    Heard this morning on the radio that someone's written a book about the Beanie Baby craze of the '90s, when some people were willing to pay $10,000 for certain specific variations of a $5 stuffed toy. That market didn't last, of course. Perhaps this chappie suddenly became aware the same thing could happen to LEGO? (Or maybe this is the first omen of the coming apocalypse itself? No, I don't think so really. I don't even think the current LEGO market is that overheated, though I doubt it can keep its current state forever either.)
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    edited March 2015
    At worst, legos are still always worth at least the brick price, and have a functional use.  Not the case with other collectibles. 
    madforLEGOTXLegoguyPitfall69AdeelZubair
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    ^Problem there is it's obvious many new entries into the market aren't builders. Certainly you can make money selling by the part too. Anyone crazy enough to sell and sort parts are true brick lovers.
    pharmjodPitfall69mooman66RonyarBrickarmor
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Yeah I think that collection would be better suited towards the BL parts seller. The price would need to come down some first though.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    prevere said:
    Buddy sent this link to me. Thought I'd share it. Personally, I could never handle purchasing/investing something anywhere near this big. However, by the looks of it, seems to me that this guy overbought sets that didn't take off and is now dumping.

    http://cleveland.craigslist.org/tag/4912673105.html


    Ah the morning-after realization of reselling: "Holy crap, how the hell am I going to actually sell these things?"
    madforLEGO
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,294
    edited March 2015
    sklamb said:
    Heard this morning on the radio that someone's written a book about the Beanie Baby craze of the '90s, when some people were willing to pay $10,000 for certain specific variations of a $5 stuffed toy. That market didn't last, of course. Perhaps this chappie suddenly became aware the same thing could happen to LEGO? (Or maybe this is the first omen of the coming apocalypse itself? No, I don't think so really. I don't even think the current LEGO market is that overheated, though I doubt it can keep its current state forever either.)
    I actually think that Funko POP Vinyls are likely to be the next beanie babies. As is often cited when the longevity of the Lego aftermarket is questioned, the value of a set can often be regained by it's parts.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    edited March 2015
    Well, he did say in his listing to make an offer. As long as Lego remains popular and keep putting out interesting sets, I don't think there will be that much of decline in the Aftermarket.
  • rocaorocao Administrator Posts: 4,288
    goshe7 said:
    I can't believe nobody else jumped on the pile of Spongbob earlier. :)
    Spongebob sets actually do pretty well -- better than most of the Star Wars sets that are pictured.
  • mooman66mooman66 Member Posts: 122
    ^I sold a used Krusty Krab #3825 with instructions, no box, for $80+shipping a few months ago.  Another mixed lot gem.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    Pitfall69 said:
    Well, he did say in his listing to make an offer. As long as Lego remains popular and keep putting out interesting sets, I don't think there will be that much of decline in the Aftermarket.
    The key for the Lego aftermarket is not seeing too many of these situations where people are dumping huge amounts or all of their collections. The beauty of the brick is that for so many of us, you'd have to pry the bricks from my dead hands to get'em. (The ones I'm not selling of course).
    Pitfall69rocaoBumblepantsRonyar
  • BuriedinBricksBuriedinBricks USAMember Posts: 1,367
    mooman66 said:
    ^I sold a used Krusty Krab #3825 with instructions, no box, for $80+shipping a few months ago.  Another mixed lot gem.
    To be fair, just a single door from that set sells for ~$25 on a regular basis :)
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,108
    We could all pool funds to come up with maybe half what he is asking and have some sort of group business?
    matticus_bricksMordoor
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited March 2015
    Whilst I don't see it happening, the idea that we always throw away that Lego would always be worth the brick price is surely largely nonsense. When you actually stop and think about it the actions that would lead to a lego bubble bursting would almost certainly lead to the parts market imploding too, made 100 times worse by people dumping cheap lego sets or parting out ones that wont sell.
    juggles7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,891
    ^All the Modulars in my basement are giving me the Home Alone "oh no" sign.
    brickupdate
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