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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    Amazon US has always played around with shipping Lego to Australia. Over the last 3 years there has been periods where no Lego "sets" could be shipped, other time where only some sets and times when just about every thing could be sent.

    It was around October/November last year it stopped again and I am pretty sure it was a similar time the year before. With May/June when being when Lego was allowed again.

    One thought on it is that due to shortages (TLG's production running at 100%) Amazon decides to stop sending OS so they can concentrate on supplying the local market.

    I am also sure that TLG would not want Amazon sending OS, but as I have said before, I really don't think TLG has much control on what Amazon (and Walmart etc) does, they would be TLG largest customers and TLG needs them more then Amazon and Co need TLG.

    So if things stay the same we should see international shipping again in the next few months, although with the weakness in the AUD I'd probably still find it hard to buy from Amazon.

    I'll add that Amazon has some non Lego products that won't shop and lots that do. So it isn't specific to just Lego.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,874
    BACbrix said:

    Wow Palpatine's Arrest is just now hitting the 100$ price point? It was 69.99$ for like 2 years and finally it went up.

    TRUs still have piles and piles on discount for about $60.
    Pitfall69
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    juggles7 said:

    @stevemack, Wish I could help you, but my online research on your issue is coming up dry. I live in the US, by the way. Have bought and received minifigures from Amazon-France one time, but that's all, and that was over a year ago.

    What did Amazon tell you about it? Didn't they email you, explaining why your order had been canceled?

    You can't place the order at all. You put it in your basket and it tells you it won't ship to the UK. You can't checkout.

  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    edited February 2015
    ^Same for Amazon.FR shipping to the U.S.. There could be a couple reasons: 1) Lego doesn't allow them to do it due to price considerations, and/or 2) the significant cost of return shipping due to the high probability of damaged en-route. I once received a Lego freight train from Amazon.FR that had literally been cut in half length-wise and then taped back together with mangled pieces; however, my minifigures arrived in great condition.

    Either way, it appears Amazon killed it both directions.
  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 282
    Which of the new City sets do you all think will do best? Here in Japan, the swamp, arctic, and construction sets are all 35% off on amazon. Couple in the awesome exchange rate right now and it makes for some awesome deals which I can't do a ton with right now since we just dropped a ton of cash on our vacation for later this year. If you were going to pick any up which would you get? I think the Bulldozer #60074 will do well and I can pick those up for $25.34 each. What do you think of the swamp, arctic, and other demolition sets? Keep in mind these sets are going to probably get stored until i return to the states as I probably wont bother selling any while I'm here. I return in August 2018.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    Each Lego set theme has its own risk, and the City themed sets seem to be one of the most risky to resell. While there are specific sets I really like and some that perform quite well, the City sets generally scare me. My reason is that City themed sets are so easy to re-release or just leave on-sale forever; especially if they're popular.

    If I did have a City set I thought might do well in the aftermarket, I would dump it quickly after it reached a predetermined threshold and never look back.
    BACbrixjuggles7
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655

    Each Lego set theme has its own risk, and the City themed sets seem to be one of the most risky to resell. While there are specific sets I really like and some that perform quite well, the City sets generally scare me. My reason is that City themed sets are so easy to re-release or just leave on-sale forever; especially if they're popular.

    If I did have a City set I thought might do well in the aftermarket, I would dump it quickly after it reached a predetermined threshold and never look back.

    There are no secrets with Victor Quartermaine; what you see, is what you get...*hair sucked up* I am watching it now. Lego City...what you see is what you get, you get bad resell lol.
    Farmer_John
  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    They are tough to predict. I remember a few years ago when everyone was so certain that #3661 (Bank and Money Transfer) was going to be a surefire, unique hit in the aftermarket. A look at recent eBay sales of sealed sets show it going for about $45-75.

    The hot pick for this current line of City sets seems to be #60083 (Snow Plow). Who knows though.

  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,871
    Again, it's all about the purchase price. I personally picked up about 20 of the #3661 for half MSRP (maybe better) due to the fact that the clearance stacked with a BOGO sale Target was doing at the time. Some people got them even cheaper. I did fine with them at the price I paid.

    If you get just about any set (not all, but most) cheap enough, you can make money on them. I am starting to do better though about not just buying sets because they are cheap. I am better off spending money on quality sets that may not be cheap or even on sale from a long term perspective.
    Dadjuggles7
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,250
    City is a slow steady riser, specifically if the type of set is not done again. Snow Plows and the big demo set are likely winners, but you are not going to get a huge return vs something like Mods IMO.
    juggles7
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,836
    BACbrix said:

    Wow Palpatine's Arrest is just now hitting the 100$ price point? It was 69.99$ for like 2 years and finally it went up.

    I am actually surprised that Palpatine's Arrest did not go up because of the number of exclusive minifigs. It must have been vastly produced and lasted on the shelves for a while.
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655

    BACbrix said:

    Wow Palpatine's Arrest is just now hitting the 100$ price point? It was 69.99$ for like 2 years and finally it went up.

    I am actually surprised that Palpatine's Arrest did not go up because of the number of exclusive minifigs. It must have been vastly produced and lasted on the shelves for a while.
    You are not kidding. I love it and currently am trying to aquire another one. It was great set for the figures so who knows. Sometimes aftermarket it cruel to good sets.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    edited February 2015
    When I first saw Palpatine's Arrest, I thought it was a sure winner based on the minifigures (similar to the Batman Funhouse set). But I didn't purchase even one set because of its high list price of $90, although I was really tempted several times. A more realistic RRP for this set really should have been around $70.

    Fortunately, Lego put them on sale at 50% off ($45) to close them out and I ended up getting a couple sets. But from a reseller standpoint (and less fortunately), I think the entire known world also picked up a couple as well. So like Batman's Funhouse set, I think this one will be a slow but steady riser.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,355

    When I first saw Palpatine's Arrest, I thought it was a sure winner based on the minifigures (similar to the Batman Funhouse set). But I didn't purchase even one set because of its high list price of $90, although I was really tempted several times. A more realistic RRP for this set really should have been around $70.

    Fortunately, Lego put them on sale at 50% off ($45) to close them out and I ended up getting a couple sets. But from a reseller standpoint (and less fortunately), I think the entire known world also picked up a couple as well. So like Batman's Funhouse set, I think this one will be a slow but steady riser.

    I didn't buy one set. Mainly because of the price and because the whole scene in the movie was awful.

    pharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    edited February 2015
    ^Palpatine's Arrest is really all about the minifigs, just as the Funhouse is all about the minifigs. Neither set is that impressive without its minifigs. Now with the new Jokerland set coming out, the value of the Funhouse will likely increase as a supplemental set. Palpatine's Arrest just doesn't have a good set to pair with...
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,871
    You think funhouse escape will increase? I keep waffling on It. I sold some for modest profit but I cant see it going too high as long as the jokerland set is out.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,250
    pharmjod said:

    You think funhouse escape will increase? I keep waffling on It. I sold some for modest profit but I cant see it going too high as long as the jokerland set is out.

    Well Funhouse is 119.99 USD, has a different Harley and is missing Riddler who is not the same as in the Riddler chase. I have a few Funhouses so I think Ill ride out the storm on these and see what happens as I'm sure there are plenty that are being sold now due to the news of Jokerland being out so a chance any breaking even is probably lower now than before.
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,836
    I was looking around Lego.com and saw that the triple e liner has the retiring soon tag. I know that other Maersk sets have gone way up in value so I was wondering if this might...
    Farmer_John
  • drlmiles1drlmiles1 UKMember Posts: 176
    What do people feel about the last wave of The Hobbit? From what I have seen in the UK, shops (and possibly Lego) have not stocked up on the last wave due to poor sales of the previous ones. The last wave was released in October. and I managed to get a reasonable discount off #79015, and #79016 from Amazon. #79016 is still available at a discount on Amazon, but seems to have disappeared from local stores. #79015 is also not to be found in local stores, but is commanding a small premium on Amazon.
    My main interest is in BoFA #79017, and The Lonely Mountain #79018
    #79017 is ridiculously overpriced (£59.99 in UK, $59.99 in US), and I've been waiting for a reasonable discount on it, just like the rest of the LOTR and Hobbit lines. However, the most it's been discounted on Amazon is £6, and it's remained full price on Amazon ever since the end of November.
    Similarly with #79018 - the most that has been discounted on Amazon is £10, and most of the time it has been discounted only £5, and has been full price for the last month. 
    Searching on the Internet has not revealed any significant discounts elsewhere.
    Both of these sets are no longer in local shops - BoFA disappeared first, and now the only place I've seen it and Lonely Mountain are Lego stores (the 2 smaller sets are also in Lego stores). 
    So, my question is - should I wait for them to be discounted, or buy now at a premium, as these will complete my Hobbit Lego collection?
    I doubt very much there will be an aftermarket for BoFA, but suspect Lonely Mountain may rise after EOL, as:
    1) It seems to have been produced in limited quantities
    2) There are probably lots of people like me out there waiting for a discount that may never happen, who want it to complete their Lego Hobbit collection
    3) It has a unique set piece - Smaug - that will likely never be produced again
    Any comments?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    I was looking around Lego.com and saw that the triple e liner has the retiring soon tag. I know that other Maersk sets have gone way up in value so I was wondering if this might...
    Thanks for the headsup! I do like the prospects for Maersk ships and trains. Perhaps the Triple E is a bit overpriced, but I think it will do fine.
    bobabricks
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,332
    drlmiles1 said:
    What do people feel about the last wave of The Hobbit? From what I have seen in the UK, shops (and possibly Lego) have not stocked up on the last wave due to poor sales of the previous ones. The last wave was released in October. and I managed to get a reasonable discount off #79015, and #79016 from Amazon. #79016 is still available at a discount on Amazon, but seems to have disappeared from local stores. #79015 is also not to be found in local stores, but is commanding a small premium on Amazon.
    My main interest is in BoFA #79017, and The Lonely Mountain #79018
    #79017 is ridiculously overpriced (£59.99 in UK, $59.99 in US), and I've been waiting for a reasonable discount on it, just like the rest of the LOTR and Hobbit lines. However, the most it's been discounted on Amazon is £6, and it's remained full price on Amazon ever since the end of November.
    Similarly with #79018 - the most that has been discounted on Amazon is £10, and most of the time it has been discounted only £5, and has been full price for the last month. 
    Searching on the Internet has not revealed any significant discounts elsewhere.
    Both of these sets are no longer in local shops - BoFA disappeared first, and now the only place I've seen it and Lonely Mountain are Lego stores (the 2 smaller sets are also in Lego stores). 
    So, my question is - should I wait for them to be discounted, or buy now at a premium, as these will complete my Hobbit Lego collection?
    I doubt very much there will be an aftermarket for BoFA, but suspect Lonely Mountain may rise after EOL, as:
    1) It seems to have been produced in limited quantities
    2) There are probably lots of people like me out there waiting for a discount that may never happen, who want it to complete their Lego Hobbit collection
    3) It has a unique set piece - Smaug - that will likely never be produced again
    Any comments?
    #79017 down to £40 and #79018 £80 both instore only in Argos. Stock is very patchy but I found them both a couple of weeks ago. 

  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    Regarding last wave of Hobbit:  once I discovered that the remaining places to purchase BoFA and Lonely Mountain was the Lego store/[email protected] or Amazon (at least for me) I just bought those two along with Orthanc since I knew I'd regret not purchasing them when given the chance (I did see a few BoFA at a Target the other day on the shelf).  I was surprised about Lake Town Chase #79013 in terms of not being able to find it easily but I ended up snagging one off Amazon for a decent price.  I'm happy to have the entire LoTR/Hobbit line to call my own but as others have mentioned - if you want any of the above for your own personal collection I would certainly pick them up now. 
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    edited February 2015
    I like the Arctic sets. I do wish they were just a little more AFOL oriented. More detailed. They are remeniscent of classic space. I just can't pull the trigger because they seem overpriced even with a 15% discount. I'm not sure they will hit clearance either.
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    @matthew Agreed. Great sets and very awesome because of the unique color scheme and outfits and such. Sadly I hhaven't bought one because they are priced way too high as if they were liscensed. Maybe the Snow Miser has a liscense on everything ten below... :#
  • ryjayryjay Member Posts: 984
    Select Walmarts have put some of the Arctic Explorer sets on clearance. I cant remember the set #, but I paid $30.00 for the MSRP $49.00 set. I think it was the Outpost.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 813
    edited February 2015
    pharmjod said:
    Again, it's all about the purchase price. I personally picked up about 20 of the #3661 for half MSRP (maybe better) due to the fact that the clearance stacked with a BOGO sale Target was doing at the time. Some people got them even cheaper. I did fine with them at the price I paid. If you get just about any set (not all, but most) cheap enough, you can make money on them. I am starting to do better though about not just buying sets because they are cheap. I am better off spending money on quality sets that may not be cheap or even on sale from a long term perspective.


    You're right, it's ALL about the purchase price. Some people think it's about purchase price and selling price. It's not. 

    Best City sets of recent times for me have been #3367 and #3181 .  #3367 was returning 4.5 x purchase price.


    pharmjod
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    @ryjay lucky!!!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,250
    edited February 2015
    mathew said:
    I like the Arctic sets. I do wish they were just a little more AFOL oriented. More detailed. They are remeniscent of classic space. I just can't pull the trigger because they seem overpriced even with a 15% discount. I'm not sure they will hit clearance either.
    Well two sets of the arctic line appear 'sold out' already:
    #850932 Polar accessories set
    #60064 Arctic supply plane

    I hate it when LEGO does this with a line, same thing occurred with the 'Miner' line where the dump truck discontinued but the rest of the line stayed for another 1.5 years (actually two years I think).

    I like the line too, but agree 15% discount is too low. However, that seems to be the standard now that LEGO is the most popular toy on the market. That is why I bought two each of the cargo and passenger train sets at TRU's BOGO40. I'm just not sure they are getting any cheaper than 20% off any time soon.
    Dad said:
    pharmjod said:
    Again, it's all about the purchase price. I personally picked up about 20 of the #3661 for half MSRP (maybe better) due to the fact that the clearance stacked with a BOGO sale Target was doing at the time. Some people got them even cheaper. I did fine with them at the price I paid. If you get just about any set (not all, but most) cheap enough, you can make money on them. I am starting to do better though about not just buying sets because they are cheap. I am better off spending money on quality sets that may not be cheap or even on sale from a long term perspective.


    You're right, it's ALL about the purchase price. Some people think it's about purchase price and selling price. It's not. 

    Best City sets of recent times for me have been #3367 and #3181 .  #3367 was returning 4.5 x purchase price.


    I think that #7936 is the king for me right now. Definitely the best city set gain I have had in a some time and wish I would have bought more of them
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,836
    I was looking around Lego.com and saw that the triple e liner has the retiring soon tag. I know that other Maersk sets have gone way up in value so I was wondering if this might...
    Thanks for the headsup! I do like the prospects for Maersk ships and trains. Perhaps the Triple E is a bit overpriced, but I think it will do fine.
    Yes it is a bit expensive but maybe some deals might happen before it retires. I've been wanting to invest in a big set so this might be a good one to get.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,401
    ^I don't recall there ever being any deals on Maeark-themed sets, but I can assure you I'll be too late for the sale if there is one. :wink: 
    pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,355
    I got a few of the Maersk Train sets on sale from Amazon, but maybe that was before the Exclusives Discount Ban.
    FollowsClosely
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,332
    3 year's later, the #10155 maersk only sells for around £140 bnib after being discounted to £82

    http://www.bricksetforum.com/discussion/3796/uk-10155-maersk-ship-back-in-stock-s-h#latest
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,836
    This Maersk liner is also the first Maersk set to not use the exclusive color. Would this detract value?
    Pitfall69FollowsCloselyFarmer_John
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,355
    I had the very first one released. Then they released the same ship, but with different printing on the box. Then they released the same ship in the new blue color.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,029
    Personally I think with this set being out for just over a year and with its limited attraction (I think) that it will do just fine in the aftermarket. With the monacker of Maersk it will add to the value.

    As most of us state in threads throughout the forum if you want one get it now....
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,836
    I didn't really think about its shelf life until now. If it is retiring after only one year, I would think it didn't get much sales which would definitely bring the value up. I'm pretty sure my local Lego store still has them so I should pick one or two up next time I go down there. Worst case scenario, it doesn't do well in the  after market and it is still a $400 part out... or a fun build. ;)
  • BrickaholicBrickaholic UKMember Posts: 342

    Certainly has the wow factor, when I  saw it on display and that was my first impression anyway. One of the best display models ever made IMHO. Just look at it

  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,029
    Did a quick search on [email protected] US and the Maersk Triple E is at the top of the retiring soon list and the only one listed as still available. I feel like the standard call here is once they sell out that's it.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Pitfall69 said:
    I got a few of the Maersk Train sets on sale from Amazon, but maybe that was before the Exclusives Discount Ban.
    Bought all mine from [email protected] when they went on sale at $97.18 during Nov 2012. They lasted around 1.5 days at that price. How times have changed.
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    ^^ Until the stickers start peeling :)
    Pitfall69brickupdateAdzbadboy
  • TarDomoTarDomo FinlandMember Posts: 515
    Does anyone know why amazon usa stopped shipping to the Uk?
    Probably the same reason that those of us in the USA can't order from Europe. I used to order some sets from France, but Amazon killed that route off over a year ago.


    Is this about the whole Europe or only UK?

  • OdinduskOdindusk Member Posts: 763
    edited February 2015
    Any general thoughts on the Hobbit Smaug set #79018? I can't get a read on this entire Hobbit line at all. It "feels" like a flop but the dragon set HAS to be an exception, right? I think I want to grab it during the next 2x VIP event in March, because this is the type of set I say I will get but then end up missing out.
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,249
    edited February 2015
    Odindusk said:

    Any general thoughts on the Hobbit Smaug set #79018? I can't get a read on this entire Hobbit line at all. It "feels" like a flop but the dragon set HAS to be an exception, right? I think I want to grab it during the next 2x VIP event in March, because this is the type of set I say I will get but then end up missing out.

    Yes, I would think so. The Hungarian Horntail from harry potter still commands a premium price.

    Much like trains, it seems people also have a soft spot for dragons.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    "a soft spot for dragons"

    That brings a tear to my eye.  :-) Those sad blue eyes, their calm demeanor.  And, they are so darned cute!  You just want to give them a great big hug!  Just joking.  Can't go wrong with a dragon.  Everybody loves them, for some strange reason.  Maybe because everyone would like one for a pet?  And, hope you can control it.  "Bad dragon.  Bad, bad dragon.  What'd a tell you about torching the neighbor's house!"  Course, the Game of Thrones helps their cause.  I mean, they are just pets right?  Big, dangerous pets, but still pets.
    Bumblepants
  • sklambsklamb speaker of American EnglishMember Posts: 478
    edited February 2015

    ^Oh, certainly. Smaug in particular! ;)

    I'm reminded of C.S.Lewis' comment about Aslan: "He's not a *tame* lion."

    LegoKip
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,250
    edited February 2015
    #10245 Santa's workshop is back as 'available' on [email protected] US.
    So if you have one on 'backorder' you may want to contact LEGO and ask why as it is available now.

  • charlatan13charlatan13 Member Posts: 118
    Odindusk said:
    Any general thoughts on the Hobbit Smaug set #79018? I can't get a read on this entire Hobbit line at all. It "feels" like a flop but the dragon set HAS to be an exception, right? I think I want to grab it during the next 2x VIP event in March, because this is the type of set I say I will get but then end up missing out.
    The set itself is overpriced but you only begin to appreciate Smaug once he's built and in your hands (pictures really don't capture how cool he really is).  I would imagine that anyone who decides to purchase sets from the Hobbit line once they are retired will view #79018 as one of the more desirable choices. 
    Odindusk
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Speaking of dragons... Did all of the Ninjago dragons do well?
  • bobabricksbobabricks Vancouver, BC, CanadaMember Posts: 1,836
    @cloaked7 #2260 is about $60, #2509 is about $80, #2521 is about $190, #9450 is about $90, #30083 is about $10, #70503 is about $40 and #70725 is about $60. These are all in CAD and are current BrickLink cheapest sealed prices.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,355
    I know this is Taboo, but what are your thoughts on Fire Brigade this Christmas? Market price is $300 right now, but what will it be by Christmas and what do you think its peak will be?
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