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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    Pitfall69 said:

    ^I've always wanted to hand a homeless person a small bag full of Lego:

    Homeless guy: What am I supposed to do with this?
    Me: It's Lego...it's better than money. You have plastic gold in your hands.

    ...1 week later

    Homeless guy: Hey man, you got any Lego?
    Me: I'm all out. What happened to the bag I gave you?
    Homeless guy: I traded it for something called Legends of China...or Chima...something like that.
    Me: Now we know why you are homeless.

    ;)

    Thanos75bobabricksCircleKMrJ_NYprevereRainstorm26Farmer_JohnMathBuilderwagnerml2
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452

    Class of 2014 officially marked as retired on overseas [email protected] sites. Let the fun begin :)

    Class of 2014?

  • lordzaraklordzarak OH, United StatesMember Posts: 329
    Man... kids these days. They graduate, then they think they're entitled to retire right away.
    cloaked7Pitfall69brickupdateRainstorm26RonyarFarmer_Johnprevere
  • RonyarRonyar Member Posts: 369
    ^^ Santa's Workshop
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    BACbrix said:

    Exo officially retires on the 25th

    In which country?
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    As far as I know it is everywhere. I assume that it means all production is over and whatever is left is left.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    I thought that we (UK) got advertising saying that the mission ends in march.
  • scrumperscrumper UKMember Posts: 323
    The Ideas site says February 2015 but no date so I would think that production has stopped already.
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    CCC said:

    I thought that we (UK) got advertising saying that the mission ends in march.

    Well the U.S. for sure is ending on the 25th
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Just to be sure, I live in the U.S. and I for one don't plan to purchase it after the 25th...

    :wink:
    BACbrixFollowsClosely
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Question: Is it too earlier to rename the new Elves theme as the "next Chima?"
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312

    Question: Is it too earlier to rename the new Elves theme as the "next Chima?"


    In what sense?
    sklamb
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    If I had lets say 50$ right now (or the equivalent to your country because inclustivity is good) what one set would be best to invest in? Not the right thread? Sorry just curious to hear what you think. If I am lost point me the right way please thanks lol.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    @BACbrix Based on your budget, a few of my picks. No warranties or guarantees expressed or implied. :-)

    Again, based on your $50 budget, my numero uno pick is...
    #21301 - only $45, I think Birds will do very well. A beautiful set, in a great box, that will appeal to several different groups. Not sure if LEGO has ever done birds. I'm not a LEGO expert. If it is the first bird set, that is another plus. Also, I think it will be collectible based on other bird sets coming out later. If so, it is always the 1st set that does the best.

    Other sets to consider, a bit higher in price...
    #31026 - is a bit more than $50, but on clearance at Kroger Super Stores.
    #10245 - is a bit more too, but will sell well later
    #41055 - again, a bit more, but will do well after retirement
    #6156 - if you can find it

  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    cloaked7 said:

    @BACbrix Based on your budget, a few of my picks. No warranties or guarantees expressed or implied. :-)

    Again, based on your $50 budget, my numero uno pick is...
    #21301 - only $45, I think Birds will do very well. A beautiful set, in a great box, that will appeal to several different groups. Not sure if LEGO has ever done birds. I'm not a LEGO expert. If it is the first bird set, that is another plus. Also, I think it will collectible based on other bird sets coming out later. If so, it is always the 1st set that does the best.

    Other sets to consider, a bit higher in price...
    #31026 - is a bit more than $50, but on clearance at Kroger Super Stores.
    #10245 - is a bit more too, but will sell well later
    #41055 - again, a bit more, but will do well after retirement
    #6156 - if you can find it

    Alright cool. Actually I wasn't saying on my budget, but i was just interested to see if anybody can score with a 50$ or so. Like maybe a 200% return on aftermarket. Obviosuly it takes money to make money but I am trying to find a loophole hahaha
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    I think #42028 will do well too. It's is $50 on the dot. :-) Shoot, I need to get that set for me. Everyone boy (young or old) loves dozers! :-)
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    cloaked7 said:

    I think #42028 will do well too. It's is $50 on the dot. :-) Shoot, I need to get that set for me. Everyone boy (young or old) loves dozers! :-)

    Cool! Thanks for the input. I never consider technic lol
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    Not many sets give a 200% return. You're talking buying for $50, selling for $150. Right? If I can double my money after eBay fees and such I am very happy. And, that doesn't happen a lot. It is difficult to pick that one HUGE winner. Mainly because you don't know how long LEGO will keep the set current. If you can snag a winner on close out (on sale) you are usually going to do very well. But, the planets have to align for that to happen. They do for me.
  • 1stflabuyer1stflabuyer Member Posts: 17
    Along with #42028, you might consider #60074 - another Bulldozer, but in minifig scale ($40).
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    CCC said:

    Question: Is it too earlier to rename the new Elves theme as the "next Chima?"


    In what sense?
    In the sense that it's a bad theme and not worth collecting. I think the Friends theme is great...the Elves theme...meh.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    BACbrix said:

    cloaked7 said:

    @BACbrix Based on your budget, a few of my picks. No warranties or guarantees expressed or implied. :-)

    Again, based on your $50 budget, my numero uno pick is...
    #21301 - only $45, I think Birds will do very well. A beautiful set, in a great box, that will appeal to several different groups. Not sure if LEGO has ever done birds. I'm not a LEGO expert. If it is the first bird set, that is another plus. Also, I think it will collectible based on other bird sets coming out later. If so, it is always the 1st set that does the best.

    You had me at #21301...

    I like the Birds set as well and am hopeful they continue to release the other Bird sets that were part of the original idea. Because it was conceived by a fan, it will also likely be gone within a few months...heaven forbid Lego continues to pay royalties to one of the rabble.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    cloaked7 said:

    @BACbrix Based on your budget, a few of my picks. No warranties or guarantees expressed or implied. :-)

    Again, based on your $50 budget, my numero uno pick is...
    #21301 - only $45, I think Birds will do very well. A beautiful set, in a great box, that will appeal to several different groups. Not sure if LEGO has ever done birds. I'm not a LEGO expert. If it is the first bird set, that is another plus. Also, I think it will be collectible based on other bird sets coming out later. If so, it is always the 1st set that does the best.

    Other sets to consider, a bit higher in price...
    #31026 - is a bit more than $50, but on clearance at Kroger Super Stores.
    #10245 - is a bit more too, but will sell well later
    #41055 - again, a bit more, but will do well after retirement
    #6156 - if you can find it

    I'm not high on the birds set, but that is because I couldn't care less about the set. I can build it with pieces from my collection.

    My bet is on:

    #60083 Snowplow Truck
    #60075 Excavator and Truck

    I believe the Snowplow is a first by Lego and it is perfect for any city layout. At $19.99 and/or on sale, I can buy (3) for about $50 and I think I can triple my money in a year.

    The Excavator is a nice set and as mentioned before, people love construction sets. Not only kids, but AFOLs that add these things to their layouts.

    My wildcard is #76040 Braniac Attack. Is is an exclusive and it has been constantly out of stock since it came out. This is the first appearance of Supergirl and Braniac and I don't think we will see these minifigures again anytime soon.


  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401

    Along with #42028, you might consider #60074 - another Bulldozer, but in minifig scale ($40).

    I didn't list the #60074 Bulldozer because it isn't officially out yet, but yes, that is another one.

  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Wow awesome response thanks guys and gals. Any idea when arctic will be on its way? Is it being replaced by deep sea exploration?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    Certain vehicles do very well. I bought a bunch of #7991 Recycle Trucks on sale before it retired. Look at the prices on that now. I will take 8x RRP any day :) Even the recently retired #4432 Garbage Truck is moving up. I have already made 3x on what I paid for mine.
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 648
    BACbrix said:

    If I had lets say 50$ right now (or the equivalent to your country because inclustivity is good) what one set would be best to invest in? Not the right thread? Sorry just curious to hear what you think. If I am lost point me the right way please thanks lol.

    I don't know about 200% return, but I think #76022 will do fairly well. TLG doesn't do many X-men sets, so I think it's unlikely we will see future versions of Cyclops and Storm. Everything about this set is iconic to the X-men, and will probably remain exclusive, at least for awhile. Also, Target may be clearancing them right now.
    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,546
    edited February 2015
    #60083 Snow plow is one to buy I think , but not the first one LEGO has made. By far the best version of one though.
    Pitfall69 said:

    Certain vehicles do very well. I bought a bunch of #7991 Recycle Trucks on sale before it retired. Look at the prices on that now. I will take 8x RRP any day :) Even the recently retired #4432 Garbage Truck is moving up. I have already made 3x on what I paid for mine.

    #7991 from what I see on eBay is not much to write home about (at least if my arithmetic is anything 8x is not what these are going for now, though I believe they have doubled in price since EOL.). Trying to remember what they were on sale for though.
    Now, if you stocked up on the #7936 on sale before the went EOL you are doing well (heck even if you did not buy on sale).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401
    edited February 2015

    #60083 Snow plow is one to buy I think , but not the first one LEGO has made. By far the best version of one though.

    Pitfall69 said:

    Certain vehicles do very well. I bought a bunch of #7991 Recycle Trucks on sale before it retired. Look at the prices on that now. I will take 8x RRP any day :) Even the recently retired #4432 Garbage Truck is moving up. I have already made 3x on what I paid for mine.

    #7991 from what I see on eBay is not much to write home about (at least if my arithmetic is anything 8x is not what these are going for now, though I believe they have doubled in price since EOL.). Trying to remember what they were on sale for though.
    Now, if you stocked up on the #7936 on sale before the went EOL you are doing well (heck even if you did not buy on sale).
    I guess I was mistaken about previous snow plows, but if you want to compare #6524 with #60083 then more power to ya ;) I am not counting the one that comes with WVC.

    As far as #7991 , I guess I was just glancing at current prices and not sold listings. A rookie mistake made by a veteran. I am ashamed :( In my defense, I had to deal with a screaming child all night.

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,401

    BACbrix said:

    If I had lets say 50$ right now (or the equivalent to your country because inclustivity is good) what one set would be best to invest in? Not the right thread? Sorry just curious to hear what you think. If I am lost point me the right way please thanks lol.

    I don't know about 200% return, but I think #76022 will do fairly well. TLG doesn't do many X-men sets, so I think it's unlikely we will see future versions of Cyclops and Storm. Everything about this set is iconic to the X-men, and will probably remain exclusive, at least for awhile. Also, Target may be clearancing them right now.
    This is a great set. If you are an X-Men fan, this is the best by far imo.

    matticus_bricks
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    For a hypothetical $50 purchase, the 2014 white-box Ninjago could do well. That line seems to be on its way out already, and had a short run compared to the will-it-ever-end green box sets from 2013. Who would have ever thought that Epic Dragon Battle and Temple of Light would run this long? Those shouldn't do well. But the smaller 2014 sets like Hover Hunter, Kai Fighter, and Overborg Attack could do well. I'd avoid the 2 big sets from that line that no one seems to want, and I'd avoid the $30 Thunder Raider. Interest is waning in that line, it's been around a long time, but Lego seems to have wisely scaled back their supply, number of offerings, and how long they're available.

    Finally, can anyone tell me why #9444 Cole's Tread Assault is such a winner on the aftermarket? This was a $40 item that now costs about $100. Vehicle design? Minifigures? What gives?




  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,299
    Any thoughts on the sea cow retiring? I haven't really paid that much attention to it. I was thinking about ripping through the seals tomorrow and building it.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    juggles7 said:



    Finally, can anyone tell me why #9444 Cole's Tread Assault is such a winner on the aftermarket? This was a $40 item that now costs about $100. Vehicle design? Minifigures? What gives?

    If chalk it up to design. It's black. It's sleek. Very cool looking. Reminiscent of a batmobile-like vehicle
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,287

    CCC said:

    Question: Is it too earlier to rename the new Elves theme as the "next Chima?"


    In what sense?
    In the sense that it's a bad theme and not worth collecting. I think the Friends theme is great...the Elves theme...meh.
    I think the two are very different if nothing else because of their different audience. The thing is I think there are more AFOLs interested in Elves prior to their release than there really was for Chima. Personally I really like both, I hated Chima when I first saw it but there are some great sets in the mix. While the first thought that struck me on seeing Elves was, ooo new parts, the set design and characters have really grown on me. If the line continues and we see more mythical animals (like the Dragon thats in the second wave) rather than recoloured existing animals I think there could be some good money in them, again though the risk will be that they will be worth more as parts then as sets.
  • dougtsdougts Oregon, USAMember Posts: 4,129
    Time will tell on elves just like all other themes. Whether I personally like it or not (not sure), I'm glad Lego is trying some new out of the box ideas. They won't all work, but that's orevwrable to getting the same themes and sets recycled over and over again
    Shibpharmjod
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,287
    @dougts - well put. I was never really a fan of the ninjago theme so the fact that its still going would be annoying for me if it weren't for new in house themes to distract me. Without trying new things Lego would pretty much be down to City, Ninjago and Star Wars...and I'd be out of buying new sets.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,546
    edited February 2015
    Forgot the most obvious 49.99 USD set in production and likely to rise after EOL: Ideas #21108 Ghostbuster Ecto 1 set. Likely to rise in price, especially if it EOLs before the next movie comes out. Surprised no one else picked that one.
    ReesesPiecesFollowsCloselypharmjodPitfall69hoyatables
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312

    CCC said:

    Question: Is it too earlier to rename the new Elves theme as the "next Chima?"


    In what sense?
    In the sense that it's a bad theme and not worth collecting. I think the Friends theme is great...the Elves theme...meh.
    I think it will do quite well at retail. I imagine that it will be available in a sale, just like every non-exclusive set is at some stage. But I cannot see it being regularly offered at 75% off or more.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    CCC said:

    I thought that we (UK) got advertising saying that the mission ends in march.

    Interesting ... I just checked the website, it definitely says Feb. I checked the email again, it says March. Maybe after the initial email loads of stock has been bought and they've brought it forward. :-)

    I wonder what happens if they don't sell out by the end of February and they have published that as an end date (unlike most other sets). Is there an equivalent of book pulping? Or just an extreme sale to get rid of the remaining stock?
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,287
    I'd guess they'll just put all remaining stock to stores and remove it from the website. That way they can say that the online campaign was truthful (of the online stock) and whats left in stores is all thats left.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    My bet is on:
    #60083 Snowplow Truck
    #60075 Excavator and Truck

    My wildcard is #76040 Braniac Attack. Is is an exclusive and it has been constantly out of stock since it came out. This is the first appearance of Supergirl and Braniac and I don't think we will see these minifigures again anytime soon.

    I agree with you on the Snowplow and Braniac Attack. I saw the Snowplow on sale somewhere. Was it TRU or Yo-Yo? I forget. I didn't include the snowplow due to the price being well below $50. And, I still think the Birds set will outperform the Snowplow. We'll just have to wait and see! :-) Birds will probably be available for less time (will have to wait and see on that too). Birds appeals to more than just young boys. It will appeal to girls and adults too, so it will have a larger customer base.

    Didn't even notice the Braniac Attack until you mentioned it. Yup, the minifigs will make that set a winner. Thanks for pointing that set out.

    Too many LEGO sets, too little time!
  • TarDomoTarDomo FinlandMember Posts: 515
    I mentioned DS here for some months go and now it seems it is really one of those that are going to retire based on the information I´ve got here. Luckily, I have it.

    I don´t know if it´s been said here before (this thread has so many comments), but Ewok Village will retire this year, they said at lego. Not a surprise really.
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,342
    ^Could you be any more vague?
  • TarDomoTarDomo FinlandMember Posts: 515
    edited February 2015
    ^ In which part, may I ask? Or in both?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,312
    edited February 2015
    People have been mentioning it (DS) is going to go for the past 3 years. Saying it is going to go based on your information is pretty vague. It won't surprise me if it does go. But then it won't surprise me if it hangs about into 2016 either. If people say it is going to go every year, then at some stage someone will be right.

    Ewok Village, if it is a two year life cycle, then it is due to go autumn 2015. But it could easily hang around 2.5 years into 2016. Or longer. Who was it at lego told you it was going? Not saying is vague.
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    ^ Oh dear. Now it looks like we're wanting names. I thought we just been through that and decided it wasn't the best policy?
    cloaked7juggles7
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,161
    edited February 2015
    samiam391 said:

    Any thoughts on the sea cow retiring? I haven't really paid that much attention to it. I was thinking about ripping through the seals tomorrow and building it.

    I would guess it will EOL by the end of this year. Hard to see it last more than two years if more timeless sets like Arkham only get 2.
    samiam391
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    Dad said:

    ^ Oh dear. Now it looks like we're wanting names. I thought we just been through that and decided it wasn't the best policy?

    Ugh (caveman grunt)
    Names.... Bad... No Names!
    Ugh (caveman grunt)

    or...

    (Dorothy from Wizard of Oz)
    "Names, and titles, and locations! Oh my!"
    matticus_bricks
  • TarDomoTarDomo FinlandMember Posts: 515
    @CCC It was the guy in the customer service. Of course he might not know everything but I guess he had some kind of inside information.

    And what comes to DS I could swear someone even said that the catologue in some country said about it. "available as long as the supplies last
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    Dad said:

    ^ Oh dear. Now it looks like we're wanting names. I thought we just been through that and decided it wasn't the best policy?

    No one asked for names.
    madforLEGOTheLoneTensor
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,342
    edited February 2015
    TarDomo said:

    ^ In which part, may I ask? Or in both?

    Ok, let's try your EV prediction:
    "Will retire this year" - so sometime in next 10 months.....
    "They said it at Lego" - who is they and where at lego ? Kjeld Kirk Kristiansen to you at the last Lego board meeting you attended ? Or the cashier at your local Lego store?

    Not asking you to name your source, but such bold predictions would garner more credibility if they were backed up with your level of confidence / track record.

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