Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    edited February 2015
    LeonC said:

    So now we've seen pictures of the upcoming Jokerland, what are peoples thoughts on Funhouse Escape - does it go up (more people want it to go with Jokerland) or down (because its too similar / has many of the same figures). I have one stashed away that I bought to build but never got round to and I'm wondering whether to sell it now or keep it stashed.

    Well there is a Riddler that is unique to the Funhouse (Riddler in the Riddler chase set with flash and batman is a different torso I believe). Penguin is not in the Funhouse set (but can be had in others). Harley with red arms is only in Funhouse I believe (at least for now), and Jokerland is likely going to be at least 119.99 USD, if not 149.99 USD, so I think the Funhouse escape may do OK if you got it on sale. So while there are characters as the same in both sets, there are some differences which make still make it attractive to those collecting every fig. Plus it does have Joker and Harley and again will likely be far cheaper than Jokerland.
  • Ma1234Ma1234 Member Posts: 693
    edited February 2015

    LeonC said:

    and Jokerland is likely going to be at least 119.99 USD, if not 149.99 USD,

    It will be $119.99.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    and what is the expected release date of Jokerland?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    So basically the Jokerland is the "bad guys batcave" so to speak. It almost seems that the minifigure aspect of Funhouse and Jokerland was not well thought out. The sets themselves can be perfectly combined; however, several of the minifigures are redundant. I just think Lego could have done a better job with distributing the minifigures.
    BrickDancer
  • ReesesPiecesReesesPieces Member Posts: 814

    So basically the Jokerland is the "bad guys batcave" so to speak. It almost seems that the minifigure aspect of Funhouse and Jokerland was not well thought out. The sets themselves can be perfectly combined; however, several of the minifigures are redundant. I just think Lego could have done a better job with distributing the minifigures.

    This is idea for collectors that already own the funhouse (me included). However, as a business, they have to market to the general public, many of whom do not own the funhouse. They included the characters that they know will sell the set. This is why they have batman in just about every dc set. All the kids that can only afford one lego set will want batman.
    It would be a different story if they currently sold the funhouse along with joker land. Then it will kind of be like those Star Wars sets that are pratically one set but sold separately.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Seems like there is already an uptick in Funhouse prices above $60. I think the best you can hope for is $80 for that set. Too many lying in the weeds to be sold for anything higher than that. Pairing with Jokerland may be the best way to go (like Rancor and the Palace).
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Personally, I think the Jokerland set will help the Funhouse prices based on the sets themselves as they do compliment each other well. Upon further review of the minfigures, there are some differences for the purist (e.g., bare arms for HQ in Jokerland unlike full sleeves for HQ in Funland). Still, I would have liked to see Harvey Dent/Two-Face or maybe Bane in Jokerland, but I guess they probably don't go with a "Jokerland."

    What really surprises me is the lack of Catwoman minifigs in the DC Superhero sets! There are more sets with Harley Quinn and Poison Ivy minifigures than Catwoman minifigures in the Batman II themed sets. If I was a betting man, I would say another Catwoman set is in the offing.
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    What about the Hobbit sets in general? LOTR lasted like 2 years and went by much to quick to make way for the Hobbit and now that the Hobbit is through will Lego lose that liscense.?
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,790
    edited February 2015
    BACbrix said:

    What about the Hobbit sets in general? LOTR lasted like 2 years and went by much to quick to make way for the Hobbit and now that the Hobbit is through will Lego lose that liscense.?

    Helm's Deep and Unexpected Gathering will both do well. Others, it depends what you paid for them. A lot of the value is now in the minifigs, as people try to get complete sets of the Fellowship / dwarves company.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,061
    CCC said:

    BACbrix said:

    What about the Hobbit sets in general? LOTR lasted like 2 years and went by much to quick to make way for the Hobbit and now that the Hobbit is through will Lego lose that liscense.?

    Helm's Deep and Unexpected Gathering will both do well. Others, it depends what you paid for them. A lot of the value is now in the minifigs, as people try to get complete sets of the Fellowship / dwarves company.
    100% correct. I think most if not all of the value now lies in the minifigures. The pieces are essentially "bulk bricks" - which at the most can be sold to those who want to build the set and dont care about the minifigures, create a MOC, or expand on a current build they already have.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ and ^^ I concur. I picked the Gathering early on and have several of them. It was a no brainer to me.

    Some sets are bigger, more expensive, etc. But, I think the Gathering is a quintessential LEGO set. IMHO, it is one of the best LEGO sets ever. The mini's are great, the hobbit house is awesome, the build is fun, the set is very playable. It has a lot going for it.

    I think the Urak-Hai Army set #9471 will do well too.
    FollowsClosely
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,790
    cloaked7 said:



    I think the Urak-Hai Army set #9471 will do well too.

    I think that is given, as it has already risen a fair amount. I doubt it will continue to rise that much though now.

    Although it didn't seem to sell so well at the time. I know many people picked it up on sale, at least in the UK.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    edited February 2015
    Ma1234 said:

    LeonC said:

    and Jokerland is likely going to be at least 119.99 USD, if not 149.99 USD,

    It will be $119.99.
    Ahh. thanks
    It also helps the funhouse value I think if Jokerland is an exclusive and therefore never on sale in the US (which I really hope is not the case here).

    Personally, I think the Jokerland set will help the Funhouse prices based on the sets themselves as they do compliment each other well. Upon further review of the minfigures, there are some differences for the purist (e.g., bare arms for HQ in Jokerland unlike full sleeves for HQ in Funland). Still, I would have liked to see Harvey Dent/Two-Face or maybe Bane in Jokerland, but I guess they probably don't go with a "Jokerland."

    What really surprises me is the lack of Catwoman minifigs in the DC Superhero sets! There are more sets with Harley Quinn and Poison Ivy minifigures than Catwoman minifigures in the Batman II themed sets. If I was a betting man, I would say another Catwoman set is in the offing.


    Yeah going to make those Cat woman chase sets more and more pricey isn't it? Surprised they have not done something with Catwoman breaking into a jewelry store or something.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    What in the heck is going on with #9472 Attack on Weathertop? Brickpicker says its "market value" in the US is $58.19; that's below RRP for a licensed set that has been retired for a year already. What are your thoughts?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Yeah...kind of odd. The Ringwraith is key to that set, and I did purchase a couple of the Ringwraith minifigs (not the sets themselves) from BL for my kids and our display case. I believe it's the only set containing the Ringwraith, so I expect it to start sneaking up once the LotR and the Hobbit themes are completely gone. Perhaps people are just "tired" of the LotR and Hobbit themes at this point. I feel pretty strongly that prices for these themes will head north after they are discontinued.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    ^ That's odd. The BL average for the minifigures and horses alone is $55. I wonder if demand for Merry and the Ringwraiths is influencing sellers to parts these out and sell them separately.
    Pitfall69BrickaholicFollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    What in the heck is going on with #9472 Attack on Weathertop? Brickpicker says its "market value" in the US is $58.19; that's below RRP for a licensed set that has been retired for a year already. What are your thoughts?

    Likely because TRU had them on perpetual clearance for about 1 year after they were EOL and could barely sell them for whatever their clearance price was at a given time (I believe around 50-55 dollars I think it was), but in all I think the LoTR sets are not appreciating well. Orc Forge, an exclusive to Target, is not doing all that great either IMO. I think only Helms deep and the Uruk Hai army sets are the only ones doing fairly well for loTR, which does not speak well for those hording Hobbit and LoTR sets, especially if they did not get them on a substantial discount when buying them. Though they may do OK if they got them at a good discount of course. (Excluding the Tower which will likely go up due to its price point)
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    LOTR/Hobbit is where money goes to die (10237 being the one and only exception). Just MO.
    Dougout
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    What in the heck is going on with #9472 Attack on Weathertop? Brickpicker says its "market value" in the US is $58.19; that's below RRP for a licensed set that has been retired for a year already. What are your thoughts?

    I just sold two on eBay for $70 after posting them for less than a week. You gotta be patient with LOTR stuff.

    And with Brickpicker, I love the price tickers for sets like Palace Cinema who are not even close to retiring. Really, c'mon man.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited February 2015

    LOTR/Hobbit is where money goes to die (10237 being the one and only exception). Just MO.

    I think everyone has their own money making threshold. Some people are happy with any profit at all. If you got Helms Deep on sale/clearance and sold it right now, you might walk away with $40-50 profit. To me, $40-50 isn't worth the hassle, but for some, it is $40-50 more than they had :)

    Of course, it is all relative. If I bought a poly for $5, I would be happy with a $40-50 profit. I only have $5 into it. Just throw it into a bubble mailer and off you go.
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    I made a bad call and purchased some Attack of the Wargs sets for resale. I thought the release of the third movie would revive interest in the set. It didn't. Weathertop hitting 70 and then sinking is not a good sign, either. I passed on the Pirate Ship Ambush, despite several chances to buy it on sale, just picked up one for personal use.

    Unexpected Gathering was already showing some strength during the holidays. If your purchase price was in the 50s, that one should easily double by December.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Listen @BACbrix, flagging my comments as revenge not only shows your immaturity, it is also a great way to get banned.
    pharmjod
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    juggles7 said:

    I made a bad call and purchased some Attack of the Wargs sets for resale. I thought the release of the third movie would revive interest in the set. It didn't. Weathertop hitting 70 and then sinking is not a good sign, either. I passed on the Pirate Ship Ambush, despite several chances to buy it on sale, just picked up one for personal use.

    Unexpected Gathering was already showing some strength during the holidays. If your purchase price was in the 50s, that one should easily double by December.

    I think there are very few winners from the LOTR/Hobbit theme. I thought that Attack on Weathertop would do much better than it has. I know Helms Deep was an obvious choice, but so was Unexpected Gathering and it will probably do very well.
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,258
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    Listen @BACbrix, flagging my comments as revenge not only shows your immaturity, it is also a great way to get banned.

    @Pitfall69 Looks like we'll be equal in point totals soon enough. bwahaha
    Pitfall69pharmjodBumblepantsAdzbadboy
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Pitfall69 said:

    Listen @BACbrix, flagging my comments as revenge not only shows your immaturity, it is also a great way to get banned.

    I don't know, I think the provocative way you flagged me was immature in that I was pretending to over emphasize something to bring comixcomic relief to the post that was almost barren. Wasn't acting in an attempt to convey a spamming message but rather to joke a bit. Legos are supposed to be fun, don't be so stiff.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    samiam391 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Listen @BACbrix, flagging my comments as revenge not only shows your immaturity, it is also a great way to get banned.

    @Pitfall69 Looks like we'll be equal in point totals soon enough. bwahaha
    "Laugh it up fuzzball." ;)

  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,258
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    samiam391 said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    Listen @BACbrix, flagging my comments as revenge not only shows your immaturity, it is also a great way to get banned.

    @Pitfall69 Looks like we'll be equal in point totals soon enough. bwahaha
    "Laugh it up fuzzball." ;)

    BACbrixPitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    I have noticed an uptick in prices for #10193 Medieval Market Village and #7189 Mill Village Raid. Could it be that these sets are riding the coat tails of the Hobbit movies or because of the absence of a Castle Theme? I have a few of each stashed away, but I consider MMV one of my worst investments thus far.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,349
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    I have noticed an uptick in prices for #10193 Medieval Market Village and #7189 Mill Village Raid. Could it be that these sets are riding the coat tails of the Hobbit movies or because of the absence of a Castle Theme? I have a few of each stashed away, but I consider MMV one of my worst investments thus far.

    MMV has been pretty stagnant I think (about 140-160 USD for about 1 year now, if not longer, still OK though if you got them at 75 USD on a BOGO), but I notice the Mill village raid shot up recently to what about 149.99 USD with free shipping? A far cry from them being perpetually 80 USD up until I think before last Christmas. 7189 I think is a bit underrated. It is the only set with a spotted horse, and goats, that may also be helping it along.
    Pitfall69
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 5,826
    New Elementary pointed out how high the goats are selling for. 2 of those in the MVR accounts for ~$30-40 right there. It tempts me to sell mine but I have ambitions of a rural setting on my train layout so I think I will hang on to them.
    Pitfall69
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    I sold all my MMVs mid 2014 for $160 shipped. Bought them for $75 and held them for 3 years IIRC. Terrible investment but the funds went to SSD, HH, TH, GE, AA, R2, HE and Cargo Plane. Glad I decided not to give them another year in storage.
    Pitfall69FollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374

    I sold all my MMVs mid 2014 for $160 shipped. Bought them for $75 and held them for 3 years IIRC. Terrible investment but the funds went to SSD, HH, TH, GE, AA, R2, HE and Cargo Plane. Glad I decided not to give them another year in storage.

    I think that most of us made the same mistake with the MMV ;) I mean, it isn't a complete failure, but money could have been spent elsewhere. I only have 4-5 left and I sold all of mine for a profit, but I wish I had never bought them in the first place.

    FollowsClosely
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888

    LOTR/Hobbit is where money goes to die (10237 being the one and only exception). Just MO.

    Funny, I heard someone say that about Microsoft stock in 2001 today :tongue:
    BACbrix
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Dougout said:

    LOTR/Hobbit is where money goes to die (10237 being the one and only exception). Just MO.

    Funny, I heard someone say that about Microsoft stock in 2001 today :tongue:
    Hahaha.
  • BACbrixBACbrix AmericaMember Posts: 655
    Anybody sitting on Avatar the Last Airbender sets?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    Pitfall69 said:


    I think that most of us made the same mistake with the MMV ;) I mean, it isn't a complete failure, but money could have been spent elsewhere. I only have 4-5 left and I sold all of mine for a profit, but I wish I had never bought them in the first place.

    Made the same mistake buying Vampyre Castles in 2013 and sold them all at the same time as MMV for $129 shipped mid 2014 (paid $58 each). Again the proceeds were invested well. No purchase mistakes in 2014. Packing and shipping a few hundred sets for little to no money is a good teacher lol.

    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    You just don't want to have your money tied up in slow movers. We were talking about The Brick Bounty vs. The Tumbler a few days ago. I would still buy 1 Tumbler over 2 Brick Bounty's any day. I know I can recoup my money in less than half the time it would take for Brick Bounty to get to at least 2.5x RRP.
    Farmer_John
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    ^Agreed. That and the fact that the UCS Tumbler will likely continue to appreciate, will never be redone (at least in my lifetime), will probably have less copies floating around, and probably takes up less total space. Love the pirates theme, but the Tumbler is a reseller's perfect storm!
    Pitfall69
  • nkx1nkx1 Member Posts: 719
    Any guesses how long the USC Tumbler might hang around? Wouldn't that be cute if it were another Death Star!

    It's odd that, even a few months after initial release, it's still in apparent short supply (limit 1 on [email protected]).
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    I have noticed an uptick in prices for #10193 Medieval Market Village and #7189 Mill Village Raid. Could it be that these sets are riding the coat tails of the Hobbit movies or because of the absence of a Castle Theme? I have a few of each stashed away, but I consider MMV one of my worst investments thus far.

    Same here. (As I look over at my way too large stack of them.) That's the last time I'm going to take advice from LegoFanTexas. :-) I wonder what's he's up to now?
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    You have to admit that MMV is a tremendous value. Like I said before, I only have about 5 left, but I might part out some of them.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448

    New Elementary pointed out how high the goats are selling for. 2 of those in the MVR accounts for ~$30-40 right there. It tempts me to sell mine but I have ambitions of a rural setting on my train layout so I think I will hang on to them.

    Do wha.....!!! ? (like the minions say it)

    $15-20 for a LEGO goat? Is that more than a real goat kid would cost? Silly me, didn't even know the set has goats. Is it the only set that has them? Goats! I can't get over that. Goats, you say? :-)
    Bumblepants
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    You just don't want to have your money tied up in slow movers. We were talking about The Brick Bounty vs. The Tumbler a few days ago. I would still buy 1 Tumbler over 2 Brick Bounty's any day. I know I can recoup my money in less than half the time it would take for Brick Bounty to get to at least 2.5x RRP.

    Hey now, we're not supposed to be talking about the Brick Bounty. It isn't officially out yet. Shame on you! :-) I got my hand smacked for speculating about it. :-)

    Yeah, I hear ya. I'm not saying the Tumbler will do poorly. It is an obvious pick. Just saying... what if you got the BB at a discount (which you'll never get on the Tumbler)? That figures into the equation. I've always done very well on pirate ships. Ships and trains, almost all do well.

  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    TLG operates with strict budgets nowdays. The Tumbler does not share alot of common parts with other sets. I would rather be caught buying too early than missing out on this one.
    Farmer_Johnnkx1
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    The $64,000 question about the Tumbler is.... when will it retire? Will it be another Death Star? Another MMV? What's to keep LEGO from making it for 5 years?
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,061
    My money is on #70409 Shipwreck Defense. Solid winner right there baby!
    FollowsCloselyrichlMordoor
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Pitfall69 said:

    You have to admit that MMV is a tremendous value. Like I said before, I only have about 5 left, but I might part out some of them.

    Oh MMV. Love it as a collector. Hate it as a seller. I still may just part the rest of mine out. I hate to look back at what else was available in 2010 when I bought those.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    cloaked7 said:

    The $64,000 question about the Tumbler is.... when will it retire? Will it be another Death Star? Another MMV? What's to keep LEGO from making it for 5 years?

    I'm thinking 3 years. But if you wait until the near end to buy some, it'll be too late at that point. For serious stock on these big sets, you almost have to set an estimated EOL (extremely difficult to do), and start buying 6 months before that.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    The only real data point we have to go on for the UCS Tumbler is the UCS Batmobile #7784, which was available for about 2 1/2 months...and the Batmobile is more iconic than the Tumbler. I fully expect the Tumbler to be out less than a year. Orders for the Tumbler are going through "customer service" to ensure a fair distribution and spread the love around. The fact that Lego forced buyers into a store to purchase the Tumbler for the last 3-4 months of 2014 and [email protected] is still limiting the distribution of the Tumbler to one per customer speaks volumes to me. It's also doubtful the Tumbler will ever be featured in another Batman movie. All of this doesn't bode will for longevity...
    cloaked7ACWWGal2011
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    Based on the "juniorization" of the last Castle theme I don't see Lego doing another MMV type set. Same thing with another Imperial Flagship type set. I think we're seeing the end of a golden age of Lego. Resellers and licensing are killing it.
    cloaked7VaderX
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