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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305

    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm not really a comic book fan, but I love Superheroes. What Lego Superheroes sets, that are out right now, do you guys feel are the best investment for resale?

    These are my picks (not in any order)

    #76040 Brainiac Attack
    #76028 Darkseid Invasion
    #76025 Green Lantern vs. Sinestro
    #76023 The Tumbler

    Also, what future and newly retired sets do you think will be aftermarket winners?


    Stick with the Tumbler. The minifig driven sets will be hurt by the ever growing number of fake minifigs from China. Tumbler is top shelf all the way.
    That and the likelihood you could see the figures appear again in later sets.
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    ^ That would be my pick too.... IF it isn't current for up-teen years. Will it go down the Death Star path? Hopefully not. Will it be like a modular? Available for 3-4 years? I wonder.

    One thing about the smaller sets, most of them aren't current forever (Luke's Landspeeder is a rare example of a small set that was current for way too long). Larger sets, like modulars, who knows how long they'll be current? As I've stated, I think that how long a set is current is the main aspect to consider. Course, no one knows outside of LEGO knows what that duration will be.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    The last time I felt strongly about the aftermarket viability of a set (or should I say sets) was the Emerald Night #10194 and the Imperial Flagship #10210. I remember distinctly thinking when both were released as new sets that they would do extremely well post-EOL. Many other sets also did well, but specifically these two sets were the type that I didn't have to log-on to a site like Brickset to have my opinion validated (just as I don't need to log-on to a site to have my opinion validated that Kingdoms of Chima is a must...AVOID).

    I say this because I had/have the same opinion regarding the UCS Tumbler #76023 as I had with the EN and IF. It's unique, won't be rehashed (like so many SW sets have been done), and is in a very nice pricing sweet spot ($100-$200 price range). It also comes with two desirable minifigs, one (the Heath Ledger Joker) which won't be rehashed. My other reason for really liking the current UCS Tumbler is that I came out of my dark ages after the Joker's Ice Cream Surprise #7888 had been EOL'd. I spent a lot of time (and money) BLing parts to build a couple of the #7888 Tumblers, and it was obvious that many others were also doing the same thing based on some of the part prices.

    The USC Tumbler is in a completely different category than the #7888 Tumbler, and is the type of set I would refer to as an "AFOL Maker."
    timinchicagobrickupdateDougout
  • iso3200iso3200 97 miles from Brickset TowersMember Posts: 2,034
    Exosuit finishing this month.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374

    Pitfall69 said:

    I'm not really a comic book fan, but I love Superheroes. What Lego Superheroes sets, that are out right now, do you guys feel are the best investment for resale?

    These are my picks (not in any order)

    #76040 Brainiac Attack
    #76028 Darkseid Invasion
    #76025 Green Lantern vs. Sinestro
    #76023 The Tumbler

    Also, what future and newly retired sets do you think will be aftermarket winners?


    Stick with the Tumbler. The minifig driven sets will be hurt by the ever growing number of fake minifigs from China. Tumbler is top shelf all the way.
    That and the likelihood you could see the figures appear again in later sets.
    Interesting. The Tumbler is a "give me". I wasn't even going to include it on my list. I picked those other 3 because of uniqueness of the sets? Lego is probably not going to make another Deadpool and that set is doing well in spite of the Chinese fakes. I don't see Lego making other sets with Sinestro or maybe some of the other figures. We might not even see the Javelin again, although people will point out that another Quinjet is coming.


  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited February 2015
    Brick Bounty #70413

    I would 'invest' in it before the Tumber. I like it's price point better, it shouldn't take as much room to store, be easier to ship, and will appeal to a larger group of people. It's not an Imperial Flagship, but is still a nice looking ship. And, I think the chances of seeing it on sale would be much better.
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,052
    Maybe. I think any Pirate ship is going to do well in the aftermarket. Regardless. I think it's an updated/rehash of the last one, brickbeard bounty which has fared moderately.

    At any rate, we are talking about a set that's not even released yet, let's wait. :wink:
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    Ok people. I was only talking about Superheroes sets.

    Pirate ships tend to do well in the Aftermarket, but Brickbeards Bounty took 3.5 years to reach 2.5x RRP. I suspect it won't take nearly as long for the Tumbler to reach 2.5x RRP and you will have a greater profit in return.

    Current trend for Brickbeard's Bounty
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited February 2015
    I might pick up a couple the Brick Bounty sets because I like boats (and pirates), but I wouldn't put it before the UCS Tumbler in the world of resale. I did a quick check and there have been at least 8 similarly large pirate boats released by Lego, so it's definitely not unique. It's a non-licenced set which means undoubtedly TLG will be releasing more versions of this set in the coming years (if past releases are any indication). And with all the larger pirate ships floating around (pardon the pun), it would be relatively easy to BL a pirate ship set. When #70413 does EOL, you better dump them while you can before TLG releases another one (just like to do with castles in the Kingdoms theme).

    Other than the modulars (which have always had a pretty good track record on post-EOL performance), the Tumbler is at the top of my list.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    Ok people. I was only talking about Superheroes sets.

    Pirate ships tend to do well in the Aftermarket, but Brickbeards Bounty took 3.5 years to reach 2.5x RRP. I suspect it won't take nearly as long for the Tumbler to reach 2.5x RRP and you will have a greater profit in return.

    Current trend for Brickbeard's Bounty

    It will be interesting to see what happens to this trend after the new pirate ship is released. Unless buyers are just interested in diverse ships, their money will likely start going to the new set. At least mine would...
  • AdzbadboyAdzbadboy London, UKMember Posts: 2,621
    iso3200 said:

    Exosuit finishing this month.

    This is I shocking news! I was originally going to buy it in March 2015 for double points. So now I might as well be grabbing two instead for parts and figures. One as a back up if I really need it. Thank god they informed us, otherwise more money would have been pulled out my pocket.
  • canuhandle23canuhandle23 Member Posts: 104
    As of right now the only things I would buy ( which I have atleast 10 of each one) Tumbler, Simpsons House,and Pet shop. These three too me are the safest ones to put your hard earned money on. The tumbler in my opinion will be gone well before the new movie next year. Simpsons will be on tv for the rest of our lifetime and will always have a demand. The Pet shop has a great price point. The build is unique and will be in demand.

    My friend swears the Palace cinema will do well and like thats its a corner building. He has bought atleast 30 of them and about 15 simpsons house.

  • 3stackshs3stackshs Member Posts: 292
    Somebody probably sat on 30 town halls too and kept quiet. Those are the items to look at. The ones nobody is talking about.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    iso3200 said:

    Exosuit finishing this month.

    Sales must be really bad if they need to advertise it like this. Shame really. Nice model, but probably over-produced after the initial reseller sales. I wonder if they will learn from this and when a future ideas set sells out quickly, then they will not produce more stock that they cannot shift. Or will they learn from RI, where the extra stock does seem to get shifted ...?
    brickupdatetof
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,159
    ^Or will they impose tighter limits from the off and try harder to enforce limits?
    LegoTT
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited February 2015
    They panicked with the exosuit and made a crap ton of them unnecessarily. Many of us were saying at the time that actual interest in the exosuit, as good as it is, was limited to a fairly small (but noisy) crowd and the real wide spread interest was in the RI. I doubt they'll learn anything, other than perhaps they can just sit out the 'outcry' and a few months later it will all be forgotten. On the plus side it will surely be heavily discounted.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Seems to me nearly all the Super Heroes sets are a 3-year+ wait for good aftermarket money (3x retail). Very few exclusions. I don't see that changing anytime soon.
  • iso3200iso3200 97 miles from Brickset TowersMember Posts: 2,034
    ^^It's kind of weird that during the New Year Sale, the RI was available for 30% off when a lot of people had struggled to get a copy, but the Exo, which was lining the shelves was still at RRP. You'd have thought they'd have seen this coming.

    Or not :neutral:
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592
    iso3200 said:

    ^^It's kind of weird that during the New Year Sale, the RI was available for 30% off when a lot of people had struggled to get a copy, but the Exo, which was lining the shelves was still at RRP. You'd have thought they'd have seen this coming.

    Or not :neutral:

    Even weirder is how they cancelled orders for RI in the sale as it was out of stock. Then lots of stock reappeared and it was available again once the sale was over.

    The double VIP didn't seem to help shift the exosuit, so I wonder what level they will go to if they really want to get rid of them by the end of March. 50% and I'll jump in.
  • cheshirecatcheshirecat Member Posts: 5,332
    edited February 2015
    It would appear that LEGO have been reading the brickset forums... Posted after the double points didn't seem to help shift them.

    They need to state "retiring soon" on the website for Exo suit and see how quickly they get scooped up by the resellers.

    Shib
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited February 2015

    From the IDEAS theme, I'm wondering if the Exosuit will perform similarly to the original Minecraft #21102 set after it's EOL'd. Both were originally produced in insufficient quantities and then TLG eventually picked up production making them readily available.

    Along this line, I wonder how long TLG will let the Exosuit run. It's been widely available for a long enough period (as compared with other unlicensed IDEAS themed sets). I would expect it to go within the next few months...

    Wow - thanks Lego! That was a pretty quick answer; just a few more weeks!

    I know resellers will be snapping up the remaining sets like crazy, but is that a crazy thing to do? Personally, I think it will be a slow riser (especially with the EOL warning from Lego) because many resellers will be doubling down on this set thinking they will make a quick buck. The aftermarket should be awash with these sets for some time to come...
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    I don't buy multiples of anything but if that Exo suit hits 50% I'll be grabbing a few of them
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    ^yeah...I would just for the parts at that price!
    binaryeyeAdzbadboy
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    edited February 2015
    prevere said:

    Seems to me nearly all the Super Heroes sets are a 3-year+ wait for good aftermarket money (3x retail). Very few exclusions. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

    I dunno, I see many of the figures being redone in that time frame so you have to be selective. Will there be exceptions? Sure, see Deadpool, but for every Deadpool you will have a Wolverine and Magneto, Thor, Joker etc. I think there are a few sets that will do well. How to tell? When you barely know the character in the set is a good sign I think, or it seems like they threw in the figure to add the character into a set. So in this regards, kinda knowing the comics, or at least the 'popular' characters, helps.Or if the character has a different suit that typically has.
    I think the Daily Bugle set will do well in the aftermarket. Judging by how quick those sold out once put on sale at LEGO I think speaks a bit to that. Especially if Dr Doom is not released in another set for a while, and I doubt characters like Nova and beetle will be redone any time soon)
    if they were not doing another Guardians movie I would say the GoTG sets would do well EOL but I think the next movie may be out (and likely more sets added) by the time the current line EOLs.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,159
    Even though this latest wave of DC sets is in my opinion the best wave for the theme so far I still think that the mini figures are the selling point. I think that as long as they are not exact remakes then the figures at least will hold the values, the gamble though is if a more iconic version of the character is released later.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 17,592

    prevere said:

    Seems to me nearly all the Super Heroes sets are a 3-year+ wait for good aftermarket money (3x retail). Very few exclusions. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

    I dunno, I see many of the figures being redone in that time frame so you have to be selective. Will there be exceptions? Sure, see Deadpool, but for every Deadpool you will have a Wolverine and Magneto,

    Although the aftermarket prices for Wolverine and Magneto were always less than Deadpool, and none of them seem to have been affected by the new versions of the minifigs. Neither has #6866 as a set, there is no price crash when the new Wolverine and Magneto came out. The Joker from 2012 has now been re-released in the baby batman set (and in the poly) and it still holds its value. Now if it gets put in a widely available free / very cheap poly, I expect that to change.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    And funny enough, I think the best performing retired Super Heroes set at the moment came with ZERO minifigs.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    prevere said:

    And funny enough, I think the best performing retired Super Heroes set at the moment came with ZERO minifigs.

    The UCS Batmobile?

  • graphitegraphite USMember Posts: 3,240
    ^ Must be since I think that is the only one that hasn't had a minifig.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    Current Valuation of Complete Sealed CMF Sets

    Out of curiosity, I decided to check on the current prices for sealed CMF sets. I know that Series 1 is a no-brainer since it was only out less than a week. Here is some interesting data based on complete sealed CMF sets from Bricklink (from any worldwide seller...excluding shipping costs) in $USD.:

    1. Series 1 #8683 -$284
    2. Series 8 #8833 - $171 (surprise of the list - $166 for set found on eBay)
    3. Team GB #8909 - $170 (only 9 CMFs in set)
    4. Series 2 #8684 -$123
    5. Series 3 #8803 -$120
    6. Series 10 #71001 - $114
    7. Series 9 #71000 - $110
    8. Series 4 #8804 -$105
    9. Series 7 #8831 - $96
    10. Series 6 #8827 - $92
    11. Series 11 #71002 - $92
    12. Series 5 #8805 -$80
    13. The Lego Movie #71004 - $79
    14. The Simpsons #71005 - $79
    15. Series 12 #71007 - $69
    16. Series 13 #71008 - $65

    Based on this information, the average price per figure per set is as follows:

    1. Team GB #8909 - $18.88
    2. Series 1 #8683 -$17.75
    3. Series 8 #8833 - $10.68
    4. Series 2 #8684 -$7.69
    5. Series 3 #8803 -$7.50
    6. Series 10 #71001 - $7.13
    7. Series 9 #71000 - $6.88
    8. Series 4 #8804 -$6.56
    9. Series 7 #8831 - $6.00
    10. Series 6 #8827 - $5.75
    11. Series 11 #71002 - $5.75
    12. Series 5 #8805 -$5.00
    13. The Lego Movie #71004 - $4.94
    14. The Simpsons #71005 - $4.94
    15. Series 12 #71007 - $4.31
    16. Series 13 #71008 - $4.06

    The average profit per figure per set is as follows (based on US RRP and excluding taxes):

    1. Series 1 #8683 -$15.76 or +792%
    2. Team GB #8909 - $15.89 or +531%
    3. Series 2 #8684 -$5.70 or +287%
    4. Series 8 #8833 - $7.69 or +257%
    5. Series 3 #8803 -$4.51 or +151%
    6. Series 10 #71001 - $4.14 or +138%
    7. Series 9 #71000 - $3.89 or +130%
    8. Series 4 #8804 -$3.57 or +119%
    9. Series 7 #8831 - $3.01 or +100%
    10. Series 6 #8827 - $2.76 or +92%
    11. Series 11 #71002 - $2.76 or +92%
    12. Series 5 #8805 -$2.01 or +67%
    13. The Lego Movie #71004 - $1.95 or +65%
    14. Series 12 #71007 - $1.32 or +44%
    15. The Simpsons #71005 - $0.95 or +24%
    16. Series 13 #71008 - $0.07 or +1.7%

    Note: I went ahead and included the Team GB, The Lego Movie, and The Simpsons CMFs as they are similar in packaging and price.
    BrickarmorBrickDancersidersdd1265preverechuckpPitfall69ourmoneydiary
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,374
    edited February 2015
    I wonder why Series 8 is so expensive? Series 3 seems like a surprise as well.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited February 2015
    Some make sense based on shelf life, and some kind of snuck in there...

    We had Series 5 at our local Walmart for what seemed like forever. Although I wasn't there to see it, I'm sure it was marked down at least 50%.

    But Series 8 is definitely the surprise of the lot. For some reason I seem to remember it being high when I checked prices maybe a year ago. Apparently, the data I got during that check wasn't a fluke.

    For me, Series 1 came and went without me knowing it. Fortunately I figured it out within a month and was able to complete a set for a reasonable price (at least compared to today's prices). I was definitely ready when Series 2 came along and ordered a sealed case (cases used to be more reasonable than they are now). I remember Series 3 was pretty good, so I ordered another sealed case.

    There were a ton of Series 10 sets produced, so I think its price is where it is due to the Mr. Gold everyone was trying to get.

    I don't see The Simpsons doing too well going forward since they were $3.99 each. Similar for Series 13 for the same reason, but they seem to be a lot more scarce (at least where I live).
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,876
    Pitfall69 said:

    prevere said:

    And funny enough, I think the best performing retired Super Heroes set at the moment came with ZERO minifigs.

    The UCS Batmobile?

    I'm really referring to the Super Heroes launch from 2010. #4529 Iron Man. Boy, I laughed those off when they came out.

  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    prevere said:

    Pitfall69 said:

    prevere said:

    And funny enough, I think the best performing retired Super Heroes set at the moment came with ZERO minifigs.

    The UCS Batmobile?

    I'm really referring to the Super Heroes launch from 2010. #4529 Iron Man. Boy, I laughed those off when they came out.

    Everyone did. I still cannot imagine why many people would want them, but they did and many people apparently thought they were silly as not many stocked up on them. One of those fluky ones that sneaks by everyone , which is harder and harder to do these days.
  • jcb193jcb193 Member Posts: 148
    For those of that are eyeing the Sydney Opera House, is there any indication when it might go EOL? Do they usually discount this series?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited February 2015
    ^There likely won't be an indication, and any discounts usually occur on the Lego [email protected] site after an exclusive item is already sold out.
  • LegoTTLegoTT Member Posts: 479

    ^There likely won't be an indication, and any discounts usually occur on the Lego [email protected] site after an exclusive item is already sold out.

    Do the discounts typically take place universally in Lego Store locations or is it hit or miss?
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,305
    LegoTT said:

    ^There likely won't be an indication, and any discounts usually occur on the Lego [email protected] site after an exclusive item is already sold out.

    Do the discounts typically take place universally in Lego Store locations or is it hit or miss?
    Seems to be hit or miss. Just like online sales do not always translate to sales in store. In the case of exclusives in the US, they almost never go on sale, and if they do it will likely be only if the retail outlets all sell out of it first (like the Joust set)
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited February 2015
    LegoTT said:

    Do the discounts typically take place universally in Lego Store locations or is it hit or miss?

    The best deal you will get these days on exclusive sets is by getting double VIP points and a free "good" polybag set. They had triple VIP points for a short period during the Fall of 2013 (Black Friday sale, I believe), and actual discounts until the Summer of 2013. Basically there has been a discount drought in the USA since mid-to-late 2013.

    Additionally if you're considering the SW theme, the May the 4th sale used to be a decent opportunity in the USA as well. Unfortunately the May the 4th sale in 2014 was embarrassingly terrible for Lego. It was the first time since coming out of my dark ages that I didn't waste a penny buying a Lego set for that sale. My credit card company probably thought I had died or something...

    In short, discounts on exclusive sets in the USA are few and far in-between (and seem to be getting worse by the year).
    juggles7
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,052
    What are the major predictions on sets that will EOL this year?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    My prediction is 2015 will be a slow year and will pale in comparison to 2014.
    FollowsClosely
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Be interesting to see if any of these retire this year

    Death Star
    Pet Shop
    Tower Bridge
    VW Camper

  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88

    Be interesting to see if any of these retire this year

    Death Star
    Pet Shop
    Tower Bridge
    VW Camper

    Death Star will, I was talking to the store manager at the Lego Store in Orlando FL at Downtown Disney and he said what stock stores have is what they got. He also said they will be doing a special deal in July that will take 5% off the DS and also include double VIP points. After that sale it will slowly be taken off the market. He also said TB is one where what stores have left is all they got. The man I was talking to has also given me correct information regarding the Arkham Asylum and I took his word for it and now I am sitting on 19 sealed AA and feeling like a king. This man's name is Edwin Hammel if you want to know. Great guy who has helped build several of the displays in Downtown Disney.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    edited February 2015
    I'm all for divulging general sources of rumors, but not so specifically. It's really not a good idea to give out a name like that.
    juggles7hewmanPitfall69madforLEGObobabricksAdzbadboy
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88

    I'm all for divulging general sources of rumors, but not so specifically. It's really not a good idea to give out a name like that.

    I was given permission specifically by Edwin himself stating if anyone had questions and lived near Orlando then it would be okay to come ask him questions. I was trying to help those wanting some information.
  • BrandonCarpenterBrandonCarpenter Member Posts: 88
    CCC said:

    DS is guaranteed to go this year, same as last year and the year before :smiley:

    I get that, but it makes since it would be this year what with all the VII sets and the huge number of larger SW sets coming out.
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096

    He also said they will be doing a special deal in July that will take 5% off the DS and also include double VIP points.

    I doubt that. Why will they need to? Once word gets out, "The Horde" will devour all remaining stock within days.
    bobabrickspharmjod
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Hey, Brandon, did you buy all 19 of your AAs from the Lego store that you just named? How many did they let you buy at a time?
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,402
    edited February 2015

    Be interesting to see if any of these retire this year

    Death Star
    Pet Shop
    Tower Bridge
    VW Camper

    I just not sure about the Death Star, not that it shouldn't have been EOL'd by now. Its shelf life has been longer than a real Death Star. I do agree with the others on your list and would add the following:

    UCS X-Wing
    Syndey Opera House
    Simpson's House
    Tower of Orthanc
    Metalbeard's Sea Cow

    I also believe the Ewok Village may be on this year's list; I just hope I get around to picking it up before it's gone.
    bobabricksTheLoneTensor
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