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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    CMF's don't have any use? I beg to differ. I will have to go through the whole collection, but I use about 8-10 of each Series in my city and action layouts.
    pharmjodLostInTranslation
  • tamamahmtamamahm Member Posts: 1,962
    We have used our CMF's for Halloween scenes, Christmas scenes, summer scenes, Spring scenes, extra characters for sets, for parts, especially for female wigs, clothes and faces, etc.

    Pitfall69pharmjodLostInTranslation
  • matticus_bricksmatticus_bricks Member Posts: 651
    CMFs have provided us with an invaluable selection of unique minifig parts and accessories. With even a little bit of imagination, it's hard to see how they have no use.
    pharmjod
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    For me the problem of investing in CMF is picking the winners. Sometimes that seems obvious, others not. The Bumblebee girl from series 10 has really done well and I've seen it selling for $18-$22. Fortunately I liked that one enough to buy 10 or more of her. That said, I still love the figures and will probably buy a case each time and sell off the extra sets to help defray the cost.
  • LegoTTLegoTT Member Posts: 483
    pharmjod said:

    For me the problem of investing in CMF is picking the winners. Sometimes that seems obvious, others not. The Bumblebee girl from series 10 has really done well and I've seen it selling for $18-$22. Fortunately I liked that one enough to buy 10 or more of her. That said, I still love the figures and will probably buy a case each time and sell off the extra sets to help defray the cost.

    When you buy a case, do you some how land a sealed box? Just curious how you do that. Ask management of a B&M store to grab one from the back?
  • piratemania7piratemania7 New EnglandMember Posts: 2,113
    I've never cared for the CMF but get that many are fans of it. Personally I can't get myself to spend the money on sourcing all the series from beginning to end due to my ocd nature. PLUS, I would be one that is guilty of simply displaying the CMF with no other purpose.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited February 2015
    LegoTT said:

    pharmjod said:

    For me the problem of investing in CMF is picking the winners. Sometimes that seems obvious, others not. The Bumblebee girl from series 10 has really done well and I've seen it selling for $18-$22. Fortunately I liked that one enough to buy 10 or more of her. That said, I still love the figures and will probably buy a case each time and sell off the extra sets to help defray the cost.

    When you buy a case, do you some how land a sealed box? Just curious how you do that. Ask management of a B&M store to grab one from the back?
    Buy one on eBay, Minifiguresplus among others on eBay. Finding a sealed box online from a reseller is not that hard, and usually for a bit cheaper that retail. Im sure you can also find on at retail stores as well. BL sellers also have them as well
    Pitfall69
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452

    juggles7 said:

    Rather than sell at a loss, I'm holding, hoping, and waiting. And will probably be waiting a long time for further gains on that set. Since I already overpaid for them, now I just want to break even. Sounds like buying a bad stock, doesn't it?

    If you want to be successful then cut your losses early and let your winners ride. Most do the exact opposite (take profits quickly to validate themselves and then hang on to losers praying to break even for the same reason). Dump the losers and stock up on the shortly retiring exclusives or Town Hall is my advice.
    That's good general advice for investing, no doubt. I agree completely. But my comment was limited to a single Lego set whose appreciation was hurt by the release of a similar set. In this one case, I think "buy high, sell higher, and show a little patience" might be smarter. The similar item, the currently-available Hulk set will probably be gone within a year and a half, and then the first Hulk set could do very well.

    There's also the strong seasonality factor. Since I've held my losing set this long, into February, I should hold it through the next holiday season. It's what I can get for it on Black Friday or Cyber Monday that matters now. I'd be silly to sell it before then.

    If cutting losses is seen as a priority, and you haven't the stomach for holding a loser, you probably shouldn't overpay for any set, ever. Investing strategies only work if the investor has the nerves (and stomach) to execute them.

    It's worthy of repeating that buying at above full retail should only be done in rare cases, where there is exceptionally high confidence that the item will show high growth. Many in this forum think the Town Hall is one of those rare items, a $200 item that you should probably buy now at $500, since it will likely go to $1,000. It's possible, but I'm not yet convinced. And the "buy high, sell higher" strategy hasn't worked yet for those who overpaid for #41999, the Limited Edition Crawler. I know, I know, apples and oranges, a Technic set is not a modular...

    starwarfan77BumblepantsFollowsClosely
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I concur
  • starwarfan77starwarfan77 Member Posts: 341
    ^^
    great post
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,911
    @LegoTT Amazon.fr has / had them for about $192 shipped which was the cheapest place i have seen them. Just got my case in yesterday. Perfectly packed and shipped.
    Pitfall69
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^geez that is cheap!!
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited February 2015
    juggles7 said:

    juggles7 said:

    Rather than sell at a loss, I'm holding, hoping, and waiting. And will probably be waiting a long time for further gains on that set. Since I already overpaid for them, now I just want to break even. Sounds like buying a bad stock, doesn't it?

    If you want to be successful then cut your losses early and let your winners ride. Most do the exact opposite (take profits quickly to validate themselves and then hang on to losers praying to break even for the same reason). Dump the losers and stock up on the shortly retiring exclusives or Town Hall is my advice.
    That's good general advice for investing, no doubt. I agree completely. But my comment was limited to a single Lego set whose appreciation was hurt by the release of a similar set. In this one case, I think "buy high, sell higher, and show a little patience" might be smarter. The similar item, the currently-available Hulk set will probably be gone within a year and a half, and then the first Hulk set could do very well.

    There's also the strong seasonality factor. Since I've held my losing set this long, into February, I should hold it through the next holiday season. It's what I can get for it on Black Friday or Cyber Monday that matters now. I'd be silly to sell it before then.

    If cutting losses is seen as a priority, and you haven't the stomach for holding a loser, you probably shouldn't overpay for any set, ever. Investing strategies only work if the investor has the nerves (and stomach) to execute them.

    It's worthy of repeating that buying at above full retail should only be done in rare cases, where there is exceptionally high confidence that the item will show high growth. Many in this forum think the Town Hall is one of those rare items, a $200 item that you should probably buy now at $500, since it will likely go to $1,000. It's possible, but I'm not yet convinced. And the "buy high, sell higher" strategy hasn't worked yet for those who overpaid for #41999, the Limited Edition Crawler. I know, I know, apples and oranges, a Technic set is not a modular...

    All I know is I unfortunately have more than a few of #6857 and a decision to make as two things have conspired to probably hose the value on this set from rising:
    -TRU had these forever after LEGO's EOL because they were overcharging on them which kept the after market low.
    -Now, as they were starting to rise a bit, Jokerland is coming, which appears to be maybe only 99.99 USD. If that really is the case most of the value on these is gone, even if you got them on sale. It will also apparently have many of the same figures, and probably in the same design. If it is 119.99 USD then there is a bit of hope for a little profit and not loss,as some may want to pay less but get the figures and a smaller set. Just really a potentially bad situation. Hoping there is a little lemonade here from these potential lemons after all is said and done. the silver lining is these are not the size of a DS for example, they are fairly small and can be packed away. So, sell now, take whatever I can get, or wait -and hope Jokerland is 119.99 USD and try to get more later hoping that the larger price on Jokerland will cause those to want to buy these for less?
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    My prediction is that Jokerland will increase demand for the Funhouse, not as a substitution but as an addition. And most if not all of the repeat characters will be new variants.
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 971
    I am optimistic that all of my #6857 will be sold this Christmas for an easy %100 gain. But as usual your buy in price determines your outlook.
    Pitfall69
  • stevemackstevemack 1567km Drive From BillundMember Posts: 906
    I sold all my #6857 this xmas just gone for ~100% gain ;) Exactly as you say... It all depends on your initial purchase price I guess!
    FollowsCloselyPitfall69
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    I've never cared for the CMF but get that many are fans of it.

    Personally I find that my interest in the CMFs decreases as their price increases. At almost $1 per piece, I think the pricing is a little out of hand at this point...and going in the wrong direction.

    Personally I can't get myself to spend the money on sourcing all the series from beginning to end due to my ocd nature. PLUS, I would be one that is guilty of simply displaying the CMF with no other purpose.

    We have invested in a couple nice minifig display cases that our family really enjoys. As I place BL orders from sellers, I always take a look at their minfigs to see if 1) they have any of interest that I don't already have, and 2) they are reasonably priced. If so, I grab them for our display cases. We have developed quite a collection using this approach and have been able to pick up some of the more expensive minifigs at a reasonable prices (e.g., Deadpool for about $4.00) by getting them before they skyrocketed.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711

    I am optimistic that all of my #6857 will be sold this Christmas for an easy %100 gain. But as usual your buy in price determines your outlook.

    That is what I am hoping for, but not holding my breath. I guess it depends how JL looks and if the figures are all the same.
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    My local Toys R Us had two Horizon Express train sets available. What are your thoughts on that one? They had it priced at about 165.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Most of the train sets do go up; however, the HE is not one of my favorite sets.
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,363
    ^^I really like that set a lot. Not sure how much return you will get when you pay $45-50 extra to begin with though.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    ^^^Price match it.
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    to where though? Doesn't it have to be in stock for a place to price match?
    madforLEGO
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711
    edited February 2015
    Chubbles said:

    My local Toys R Us had two Horizon Express train sets available. What are your thoughts on that one? They had it priced at about 165.

    Did you find them at a 'flagship store' Like New York City or Chicago, etc. Or just at any old TRU?
    Not to sound like a broken record, but I would say if you buy them weight them against each other to ensure there was no funny business with the boxes.

    If you are buying for yourself and it appears no tampering with the boxes, go for it.

    However, (assuming they are legit) resell wise I would still be a bit cautious of buying them at 165 USD just because lately it seems recent EOL trains not named Emerald night are holding at what I would consider somewhat low after EOL prices. Even Maersk train has been fairly stagnant in terms of rising I think. If you buy them my guess is you will be sitting on them if you are looking to make a buck.
    Chubbles
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    I'm on the fence for either holding for personal use or flipping later. My kids aren't into trains yet but if/when they are, these might be pretty cool to have.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015

    However, (assuming they are legit) resell wise I would still be a bit cautious of buying them at 165 USD just because lately it seems recent EOL trains not named Emerald night are holding at what I would consider somewhat low after EOL prices. Even Maersk train has been fairly stagnant in terms of rising I think. If you buy them my guess is you will be sitting on them if you are looking to make a buck.

    I don't know...the # 10219 Maersk train set seems to have done pretty well (more than doubled). I think the more true-to-life a train set is, the better it does post-EOL.

    That doesn't mean I would pay $165 for a HE though...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    However, (assuming they are legit) resell wise I would still be a bit cautious of buying them at 165 USD just because lately it seems recent EOL trains not named Emerald night are holding at what I would consider somewhat low after EOL prices. Even Maersk train has been fairly stagnant in terms of rising I think. If you buy them my guess is you will be sitting on them if you are looking to make a buck.

    I don't know...the # 10219 Maersk train set seems to have done pretty well (more than doubled). I think the more true-to-life a train set is, the better it does post-EOL.

    That doesn't mean I would pay $165 for a HE though...
    The Maersk Train is going for almost 2.4x rrp on Ebay. This was also on sale. I think I got one on Amazon for $109.99. Not great, but I will use that as an example. I will use $280 as a selling price. $280 - $109 and fees/shipping.
    That's about $110 profit. I will take that all day. The boxes are small enough that they don't take up that much space.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^The list for the Maersk train set was $119.99, but Amazon had several sales for less than $100. It's a great set that will continue to rise. I really don't see the current train offerings in the same class as the Maersk or Emerald Night (which also went below $70 on sale through [email protected]). They don't make'em like they used to...
    FollowsClosely
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,711

    ^The list for the Maersk train set was $119.99, but Amazon had several sales for less than $100. It's a great set that will continue to rise. I really don't see the current train offerings in the same class as the Maersk or Emerald Night (which also went below $70 on sale through [email protected]). They don't make'em like they used to...

    Oh I know it has rose, but it has been roughly the same price for a while now I believe. My point was that most trains seem to be staying put in terms of price now, expect for EN which seems to have jumped to where it is now. Maersk train also went up partly because it is Maersk. Not certain if the HE has enough 'novelty' to do that.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    ^The list for the Maersk train set was $119.99, but Amazon had several sales for less than $100. It's a great set that will continue to rise. I really don't see the current train offerings in the same class as the Maersk or Emerald Night (which also went below $70 on sale through [email protected]). They don't make'em like they used to...

    Oh I know it has rose, but it has been roughly the same price for a while now I believe. My point was that most trains seem to be staying put in terms of price now, expect for EN which seems to have jumped to where it is now. Maersk train also went up partly because it is Maersk. Not certain if the HE has enough 'novelty' to do that.
    I agree as far as the HE is concerned. It is a nice set, but you need to buy 2 sets to make a "complete" train. Add Power Functions and you are into it for a bunch of money.


  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    Buy, Chubbles, Buy them! You won't regret it. I mean the Horizon Express. If you develop buyer's remorse, I'll get you out of them for what you paid, your actual cost plus your actual shipping. With that in mind, there's no downside. Just do it.
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    Another option is not buying them at above-MSRP prices and considering alternative sets to invest.

    I like the HE and think it will perform, but if you buy at $165 and sell at $250, after fees and taxes (say 20%) you'll clear about $38. If it magically hits $300, that rises to about $72. Then there's packing, overhead & personal time that you may or may not include in the mix. Nothing I'm saying is new that hasn't already been covered elsewhere in this thread, but the cost details do tend to get forgotten after time.

    As for no downside, there could be. What if it only reaches $200 (a healthy 150% above MSRP)? Then you'd only clear a whopping $4.

    That said, you did mention you might want one for personal use, in which case $165 is a relatively good deal.
    pharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    I think the color scheme of a train is important for its aftermarket potential (as well as its general popularity while it is available from Lego). Some of the more popular train sets (Emerald Night, Santa Fe Super Chief, Burlington Northern Santa Fe, and the Santa Fe Super Chief) all have nice color schemes. Although the HE/TGV color scheme is realistic (see image below), I'm not a big fan of that much orange.

    On the flip side the HE does have a solid design and is a creator train set, which bodes well for its aftermarket potential. It's also a better setup when two sets are combined, which is good for resellers. While it's no Emerald Night, it should still be a decent performer over the coming years.

    image
    FollowsCloselyAdeelZubairjuggles7
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I think HE is ugly as homemade soap, but I have two to build when I get around to it. UNless of course it hits a nice enough number in which case I will sell and buy a few used copies along the way.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    ^I liked the build, but having to build it again got tedious; as I needed two.
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    Good to know. While the entire midwest has had a brutal winter, St. Louis has somehow skated by with a record low on snowfall. My plan was for my son and I to each take a set on a snowday and build it out. I suppose I'll stay with the plan if we ever get any snow.
  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    My lego obsession is bad enough, I'm afraid of opening a train obsession up as well, that's what's holding me back
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    wagnerml2 said:

    Good to know. While the entire midwest has had a brutal winter, St. Louis has somehow skated by with a record low on snowfall. My plan was for my son and I to each take a set on a snowday and build it out. I suppose I'll stay with the plan if we ever get any snow.

    Yes, but you had a crazy summer ;)

  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    Chubbles said:

    My lego obsession is bad enough, I'm afraid of opening a train obsession up as well, that's what's holding me back

    Seriously, Modulars are bad enough; if you start getting into trains, may God have mercy on your soul.

    BumblepantsChubblesFarmer_JohnAdeelZubairprevereTheLoneTensorRainstorm26chuckp
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited February 2015
    ^If I was a prognosticator, I would have never got into Lego in the first place. Well...I would of at least avoided Construct-a-Zurg and Obi-Wan's Jedi Starfighter...even at sale prices.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    wagnerml2 said:

    While the entire midwest has had a brutal winter, St. Louis has somehow skated by with a record low on snowfall.

    We've had a relatively mild winter in East Central Illinois. It was a bit cold for a while but we've had only two snows of any significance and neither required shoveling to get out of the driveway. It doesn't hold a candle to last year and trying to clear my driveway of 16" of accumulation and drifting with temperatures at -45 with wind chill.
    wagnerml2
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405
    binaryeye said:

    wagnerml2 said:

    While the entire midwest has had a brutal winter, St. Louis has somehow skated by with a record low on snowfall.

    We've had a relatively mild winter in East Central Illinois. It was a bit cold for a while but we've had only two snows of any significance and neither required shoveling to get out of the driveway. It doesn't hold a candle to last year and trying to clear my driveway of 16" of accumulation and drifting with temperatures at -45 with wind chill.
    Just got almost 18" of snow. 3rd worst storm since 1886. I can park 10 Ford Flexes and that Honda in my driveway. All cleared by hand, no snowblower. It is great exercise...lol.

    wagnerml2
  • jpczjpcz Member Posts: 95
    80" back in November here in Buffalo. 80 flippin inches and i am not exaggerating- all over the span of 3 days. It all melted but a few other 2ft storms since then, including one that just left us over the weekend. Fun times!
    Pitfall69MrJ_NY
  • BumblepantsBumblepants DFWMember Posts: 6,363
    edited February 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    binaryeye said:

    wagnerml2 said:

    While the entire midwest has had a brutal winter, St. Louis has somehow skated by with a record low on snowfall.

    We've had a relatively mild winter in East Central Illinois. It was a bit cold for a while but we've had only two snows of any significance and neither required shoveling to get out of the driveway. It doesn't hold a candle to last year and trying to clear my driveway of 16" of accumulation and drifting with temperatures at -45 with wind chill.
    Just got almost 18" of snow. 3rd worst storm since 1886. I can park 10 Ford Flexes and that Honda in my driveway. All cleared by hand, no snowblower. It is great exercise...lol.

    I wouldn't fill my driveway with 10 Ford Flexes, even if it retires early it won't hold the same value as a well know car like a Ford F-150 or Explorer.
    weevin
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,405

    Pitfall69 said:

    binaryeye said:

    wagnerml2 said:

    While the entire midwest has had a brutal winter, St. Louis has somehow skated by with a record low on snowfall.

    We've had a relatively mild winter in East Central Illinois. It was a bit cold for a while but we've had only two snows of any significance and neither required shoveling to get out of the driveway. It doesn't hold a candle to last year and trying to clear my driveway of 16" of accumulation and drifting with temperatures at -45 with wind chill.
    Just got almost 18" of snow. 3rd worst storm since 1886. I can park 10 Ford Flexes and that Honda in my driveway. All cleared by hand, no snowblower. It is great exercise...lol.

    I wouldn't fill my driveway with 10 Ford Flexes, even if it retires early it won't hold the same value as a well know car like a Ford F-150 or Explorer.
    Ha. I was just trying to give people a perspective on how bug the driveway is. You are right though. If you take a door off a 2015 Explorer and put it on a 2014 Explorer; do you still "own" a 2014 Explorer? ;)
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,898
    Just depends what you're expectations for the set are. 2x? 3x? Tough for the majority of sets to hit 3x
    Pitfall69 said:

    Chubbles said:

    My lego obsession is bad enough, I'm afraid of opening a train obsession up as well, that's what's holding me back

    Seriously, Modulars are bad enough; if you start getting into trains, may God have mercy on your soul.

    Seriously, Modulars are bad enough; if you start getting into trains, may God have mercy on your wallet.
    Pitfall69
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    ecmo47 said:

    Yeah, tell me about it!

    Wow that looks amazing
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^^Wow! That HE looks pretty good in your setup!
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 971
    ^^ I like how you mirrored the Pet Shop apartments.
    binaryeye
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