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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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Comments

  • cheekymunk3ycheekymunk3y Manchester, UKMember Posts: 108
    Thanks. I only started to get back into Lego at the end of the last year, what kind of promos do they usually do for May 4th? (sorry I know slightly off topic). Is it all sets that go in sale or just non-exclusives?. Been holding off buying the remaining OT sets I need in case i miss out on a discount.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Not sure what the May the 4th deals are in the UK, but here in the USA they usually offer some of the SW sets at a discount. For example, a couple years ago they had the UCS B-Wing for 1/2 price (along with a free Han Solo minfig if memory serves me). They also (occasionally) have a special minifigure (similar to the Han minifig). I do think the deals in the UK will be at least as good (if not better) than those in the USA.
    cheekymunk3y
  • cheekymunk3ycheekymunk3y Manchester, UKMember Posts: 108
    Thanks, hoping for Death Star and Ewok Village discount!
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    edited January 2015
    Don't hold your breath, don't think we had any may 4th discounts last year on the DS.

    Might have been Double VIP points though, not sure.
  • binaryeyebinaryeye USMember Posts: 1,734
    DS was 15% off in Europe/UK last year. The US got 50% off #9496, #9515, and #9525, but they were sold out in about a half hour.

    I believe there has been a promo minifigure every year. 2014 was Darth Revan, 2013 was Hoth Han, 2012 was TC-14, and 2011 was the Shadow ARF Trooper. If you don't want the minifigure, you can sell it and consider it a discount of sorts; Darth Revan, for example, goes for over $20.
    Farmer_John
  • SithLord196SithLord196 Member Posts: 1,154
    My Walmart has a bunch of #9525 on 'Clearance' for $40.

    I wanted the Darth Revan figure last year but there was nothing I really wanted to make me pull the trigger (the bigger stuff was out of my price range too).

    If I had to guess, I feel like the Ewok Village would be the bigger set that got a discount this year. Either that or the X-Wing.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435

    Aaargh with all this TH talk, finally just pulled the trigger on ebay! Must have looked at it every day for the past week.

    Well the only way to look at it is pay more now, or likely pay much more later.
    TH is going up by leaps and bounds now. Not totally surprising, I and others figured it would do well after EOL due to its limited sales in the US and also the price point, but did not expect it to jump like this. It is separating itself from the Haunted House too, as it appears the HH is selling consistently for around 300-340 USD on eBay where Town Hall is selling for about 400-450 USD on eBay.
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    SSD is now selling for around the £600 - £650 mark, not bad at all considering its only been retired around 2 months.

    Anyone want to have a guess what the price will be at around Christmas time?
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    SSD is going for around $700 here in the USA. Hard to say on this one. Surely the new SW movies will help. I will hold mine for another couple of years at least. I wonder if TH will reach the $1k mark before SSD?
    Pitfall69
  • wagnerml2wagnerml2 Belleville, IllinoisMember Posts: 1,376
    I think TH has a better chance of getting there before SSD. I think it has a wider appeal. SSD appeals to a subset of SW collectors and is really just a huge mess of bley and dark bley parts. Of course I think that the global movement towards @cavegod UCS ATAT might have many people buying the sets just for the parts!
    Pitfall69
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 814


    @Pitfall69 I thought about what we were discussing the other day regarding 'rarity' and swopped my 3 x #41999 that I had left for 3 x #10224. When I say 'swopped' I mean I sold my #41999 on a cash deal and had to put a total of £15 towards a cash deal on the #10224. Time will tell if that was the right thing to do. I think it was though!



    I had a similar discussion last year about trading #41999 for Hogwarts Castle. My assumption was that Hogwarts Castle was going to keep going up and that #41999 had reached its peak and might actually go down in price. My assumption was correct as Hogwarts Castle is going for $400+ USD and #41999 is going for $20-30 less on Ebay. I wouldn't doubt that HC could be close to $500 USD by Christmas.

    Town Hall has the same thing going for it. I think offloading your #41999's was a good idea. People made fun of me when I suggested buying at UCS Millenium Falcon for $1,900-2,000 USD and selling it for a huge profit down the road. @Renny‌ did just that and proved me right. Had I had the funds, I would have done the same thing. I think he cleared $900+ after fees.



    Only set I've ever paid over RRP for was a #10222 and that was for my collection. I'm not prepared to tie any more money up in this game. It's not the money really, it's the time I spend buying and selling I want back so want to get a quality stash and take it a bit easier. I've got rid of all my smaller sets other than #21103 and I feel a lot better, more in control.

    Sure, I'll watch the market, youd be 'stupid!!' not to

    I tend to stick by my decisions and I had 20 of these in my cart very soon before they eol'd and didn't pull the trigger. I bit off more than I could chew really because if I'd only put 10 in there I'd have checked out without thinking about it! And the doubt came more from a storage problem than spending the money and the fact I'd said I was slowing down and wouldn't have got them in the car all at once!. You guessed it, 48 hours later there were none left for me to put in the bloody cart. But it's easy to say what you should have done. Doing it is a different matter. I'd stocked up on HH so wasn't bothered and I also had some TH's. But it's been niggling me. No way would I pay that money for them when only a few month ago I could have bought at rrp but trading them off for something I don't care for, I can cope with that.

    Regarding the MF I was deliberating at £600 to buy or not and didn't for the same reason I had the chance at rrp and didn't. At £800 I put the thought right out of my head. It doesn't worry me now. But I'm the guy who sold my Café Corner's at £300 and my Taj Mahals at £500. So I'd have probably sold my £800 MF's at £1300!!

    So I've concluded about myself that I know next to F*%k all about this game....which is probably not far from the truth. But I've a big pile of FB's, I never doubted them!!!!!!



  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2015
    wagnerml2 said:

    I think TH has a better chance of getting there before SSD. I think it has a wider appeal. SSD appeals to a subset of SW collectors and is really just a huge mess of bley and dark bley parts. Of course I think that the global movement towards @cavegod UCS ATAT might have many people buying the sets just for the parts!

    While I do agree, I have learned to never underestimate the potential of a UCS set. But that does bring up an interesting thought. At some point I might be able to do a straight swap of my extra TH for an SSD. Unfortunately, it's probably an unlikely scenario since the SSD was EOL'd before the TH, so those who purchased SSDs probably got their copy of the TH too.

    I still need to get an Ewok Village set, but am holding out until the May the 4th sale (or perhaps double VIP points).
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391

    wagnerml2 said:

    I think TH has a better chance of getting there before SSD. I think it has a wider appeal. SSD appeals to a subset of SW collectors and is really just a huge mess of bley and dark bley parts. Of course I think that the global movement towards @cavegod UCS ATAT might have many people buying the sets just for the parts!

    While I do agree, I have learned to never underestimate the potential of a UCS set. But that does bring up an interesting thought. At some point I might be able to do a straight swap of my extra TH for an SSD. Unfortunately, it's probably an unlikely scenario since the SSD was EOL'd before the TH, so those who purchased SSDs probably got their copy of the TH too.

    I still need to get an Ewok Village set, but am holding out until the May the 4th sale (or perhaps double VIP points).
    I totally get what you are saying about UCS sets ;)

    Farmer_JohnTheLoneTensorRainstorm26prevereRedbullgivesuwind
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    ^Ouch!
    Pitfall69Rainstorm26
  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950
    A UCS turd is still a turd.
    Pitfall69
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    Speaking of May 4th discounts. I remember picking up a UCS MF for $325. Not out of the question for an Ewok or DS discount, but based on the trend of pathetic discounts and popularity of Lego it would seem unlikely.
    Pitfall69juggles7cloaked7
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391

    Speaking of May 4th discounts. I remember picking up a UCS MF for $325. Not out of the question for an Ewok or DS discount, but based on the trend of pathetic discounts and popularity of Lego it would seem unlikely.

    That was years ago; way before the US ban on discounts on Exclusives.

    juggles7madforLEGOcloaked7
  • Rainstorm26Rainstorm26 Chicago Burbs USA (and sometimes Ireland)Member Posts: 1,004
    Just fondly remembering the good ol days.
    Pitfall69juggles7cloaked7
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    If
    Pitfall69 said:

    wagnerml2 said:

    I think TH has a better chance of getting there before SSD. I think it has a wider appeal. SSD appeals to a subset of SW collectors and is really just a huge mess of bley and dark bley parts. Of course I think that the global movement towards @cavegod UCS ATAT might have many people buying the sets just for the parts!

    While I do agree, I have learned to never underestimate the potential of a UCS set. But that does bring up an interesting thought. At some point I might be able to do a straight swap of my extra TH for an SSD. Unfortunately, it's probably an unlikely scenario since the SSD was EOL'd before the TH, so those who purchased SSDs probably got their copy of the TH too.

    I still need to get an Ewok Village set, but am holding out until the May the 4th sale (or perhaps double VIP points).
    I totally get what you are saying about UCS sets ;)

    Haha. I did get $150 for mine at Xmas time this past year. Bought for $75 on the clearance price. Still totally not worth it.
    Pitfall69
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    edited January 2015
    Has Republic Gunship™ #75021 and Sail Barge #75020 now retired? It says product unavailable for both on [email protected] UK?
  • LegoboyLegoboy 100km furtherMember Posts: 8,720
    Yes, both were heavily reduced and included in [email protected]'s NY sale.
  • fixitbobbyfixitbobby Member Posts: 17

    wagnerml2 said:

    I think TH has a better chance of getting there before SSD. I think it has a wider appeal. SSD appeals to a subset of SW collectors and is really just a huge mess of bley and dark bley parts. Of course I think that the global movement towards @cavegod UCS ATAT might have many people buying the sets just for the parts!

    While I do agree, I have learned to never underestimate the potential of a UCS set. But that does bring up an interesting thought. At some point I might be able to do a straight swap of my extra TH for an SSD. Unfortunately, it's probably an unlikely scenario since the SSD was EOL'd before the TH, so those who purchased SSDs probably got their copy of the TH too.

    I still need to get an Ewok Village set, but am holding out until the May the 4th sale (or perhaps double VIP points).
    I wonder if anyone thought they would ever have a chance to trade a Townhall for a Green Grocer ( or eventually Café Corner)? At the rate it is climbing, could be a possibility in the future.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,027

    A UCS turd is still a turd.

    And a big heavy one at that.
    Pitfall69
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949

    SSD is going for around $700 here in the USA. Hard to say on this one. Surely the new SW movies will help. I will hold mine for another couple of years at least. I wonder if TH will reach the $1k mark before SSD?

    I don't think TH will SSD until after both top 1K.

  • cheekymunk3ycheekymunk3y Manchester, UKMember Posts: 108
    I'm thinking of picking up an SSD for £600 BNISB - do you if I don't act now the price by the end of the year will be much higher?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391

    I'm thinking of picking up an SSD for £600 BNISB - do you if I don't act now the price by the end of the year will be much higher?

    Yes. Much higher.

  • TheLoneTensorTheLoneTensor MericaMember Posts: 3,950

    SSD is going for around $700 here in the USA. Hard to say on this one. Surely the new SW movies will help. I will hold mine for another couple of years at least. I wonder if TH will reach the $1k mark before SSD?

    I don't think TH will SSD until after both top 1K.

    Laf, what?
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391

    SSD is going for around $700 here in the USA. Hard to say on this one. Surely the new SW movies will help. I will hold mine for another couple of years at least. I wonder if TH will reach the $1k mark before SSD?

    I don't think TH will SSD until after both top 1K.

    Laf, what?
    You aren't following closely ;)

    TheLoneTensor
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 949
    edited January 2015
    I don't think the price of the TH will pass the price of the SSD until after both top 1K.

    That may be a bit easier to follow. Sorry.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    I think both will settle down. At every price point after 2x retail (2.5x, 3x, etc), you get another batch of resellers willing to sell off.
  • Milne44Milne44 Member Posts: 112
    edited January 2015
    Maersk-Line-Triple-E- #10241 sold out on [email protected] UK
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    prevere said:

    I think both will settle down. At every price point after 2x retail (2.5x, 3x, etc), you get another batch of resellers willing to sell off.

    What to you mean by "settle down?" Do you mean flatten out or go down? I can see intermittent plateaus, but not the actually price decreasing...
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,391

    prevere said:

    I think both will settle down. At every price point after 2x retail (2.5x, 3x, etc), you get another batch of resellers willing to sell off.

    What to you mean by "settle down?" Do you mean flatten out or go down? I can see intermittent plateaus, but not the actually price decreasing...
    I'm sure he means that the price increase percentages will settle down. No way they actually go down.

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    ^Exactly. It's great to look at available quantities on eBay and BL, but what we don't know is how many are stockpiled offline. A lot? Only a few? Seems like there are a lot of folks dabbling in big sets where there is no need to rush to sell, until, it is actually very profitable to cash in.
    TXLegoguy
  • juggles7juggles7 United StatesMember Posts: 452
    It's a good thing when resellers unload quickly, @prevere. Their selling at just a tiny profit helps to clear out the supply and hasten the day when the buy-and-hold crowd can make a real profit.

    And if you have a lot of confidence about a particular set, consider buying from those people. It's risky, but I have picked up a few sets at above retail, and got away with it. During 2014 I bought a few retired Winter Village Cottages, a few Batmobile Two Face Chase and I way overpaid for lots of small Harry Potter (Forbidden Forest, Freeing Dobby) sets. I flipped them all for a profit at Christmas. A seasonal play, really.

    I purchased at ebay, sold at Amazon. I made a few bucks, but it came with a lot of headaches. To name a few: eBay sellers with stock photos and not a word about box condition, Amazon buyers who send you an undeliverable address, Amazon bullying you about their metrics, you can't get Amazon buyers to leave feedback, unless they're pissed, and then you can't shut 'em up, you're forced to take Amazon returns, forced to communicate at length about returns with people who already have you working for free, thanks to their return, and on and on and on) Anyone who thinks reselling Lego is easy money, take note!!!

    One last gripe: "pending" orders at Amazon: Amazon expects their sellers to "hold" an item off the market for up to a week, hoping and waiting for the buyer to update their invalid credit card payment. Can you, as a buyer, imagine asking any other seller in the world to "hold" an item for a week during which you may or may not present a valid credit card payment for it? What kind of response would any Ebay seller give you if you asked them to do that? Oh, and if you want to go on vacation, and take down your Amazon ads, that's fine, but make sure you take any item that's pending with you and be prepared to ship it from your vacation spot, Vegas, Hawaii, Paris, wherever. That's one of the ridiculous demand Amazon makes on their sellers.

    Another problem with Amazon's ridiculous "pending" order policy:

    The retired Creationary game rose in value almost 50% in just a few days this holiday season. If you don't believe me, have a look at the item at camelcamelcamel. I had one for sale at Amazon. Someone put mine in a "pending" status, holding it off the market, effectively putting it in limbo. As always, Amazon emailed me, instructing me not to ship the item, but to hold it in reserve for the customer (with the expired credit card) for up to 7 days. After 5 days, for reasons unknown to me, and in the middle of the night, Amazon relisted the item, and it sold immediately. I could have easily gotten $20 more for it, if Amazon had but bothered to notify me that they were about to relist it. But they never do that in these situtations. Not the first time this has happened, and feel free to complain about it if you want. They'll tell you they "love their sellers" (as well they should) and nothing will get done about it, year after blankety-blank year.

    But back to the topic of buying at above retail from eBay sellers.

    All my above-retail purchases weren't winners; my 6868 Hulk Helicarriers didn't keep rising probably due to the release of a very similar set. Rather than sell at a loss, I'm holding, hoping, and waiting. And will probably be waiting a long time for further gains on that set. Since I already overpaid for them, now I just want to break even. Sounds like buying a bad stock, doesn't it? That's a bad place to be, so don't overpay for anything unless you really know what you're doing. It's like shopping at TRU. Know your stuff or get burned!

    As soon as the Haunted House and the Sopwith Camel sold out, I bought a few at above retail, but stopped when their prices rose more than 50% above retail. Time will tell if that was a good call or not.






    alijoezacJP3804Farmer_JohnPoochytiminchicago
  • alijoezacalijoezac UK, NottinghamMember Posts: 521
    ^Thank you for sharing your experience. Certainly informed me about Amazon.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337
    juggles7 said:

    Rather than sell at a loss, I'm holding, hoping, and waiting. And will probably be waiting a long time for further gains on that set. Since I already overpaid for them, now I just want to break even. Sounds like buying a bad stock, doesn't it?

    If you want to be successful then cut your losses early and let your winners ride. Most do the exact opposite (take profits quickly to validate themselves and then hang on to losers praying to break even for the same reason). Dump the losers and stock up on the shortly retiring exclusives or Town Hall is my advice.
    itsnotmeBrickDancerpharmjod
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    Just thinking out loud here, but I find it interesting that the past couple waves of Series Lego Collectible Minifigures have had to be discounted. Ironically, the past couple of waves were (in this order) The Simpsons and Series 12 CMFs...both which were priced at $3.99 each (in USA).

    On average TLG may be making more profit than they did with the prices at $2.99 each, but I think they are killing off the CMF theme in the process (at least based on the numbers still sitting on shelves at our local Target). It will be interesting to see if Series 13 follows suit. Personally, I haven't purchased a single Series 13 CMF and won't have my feelings hurt if I miss out completely.

    Note: I am including the Simpsons in with the Series CMFs due to similar packaging and cost.
    madforLEGO
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,878
    I think they'll continue to sell them for $4, as there is a loyal following and kids love'm. Maybe they cut back on quantity a little bit and maybe extend the availability of each series.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435

    Just thinking out loud here, but I find it interesting that the past couple waves of Series Lego Collectible Minifigures have had to be discounted. Ironically, the past couple of waves were (in this order) The Simpsons and Series 12 CMFs...both which were priced at $3.99 each (in USA).

    On average TLG may be making more profit than they did with the prices at $2.99 each, but I think they are killing off the CMF theme in the process (at least based on the numbers still sitting on shelves at our local Target). It will be interesting to see if Series 13 follows suit. Personally, I haven't purchased a single Series 13 CMF and won't have my feelings hurt if I miss out completely.

    Note: I am including the Simpsons in with the Series CMFs due to similar packaging and cost.

    Agree, just noted this in another thread.
    3.99 USD could be the beginning to the end for CMF. Series 12 and Simpsons have to be the first series in a long time, since series 5, 6 I think to have to be discounted to rid themselves of product, or at least be discounted and last this long in clearance.

    Because if I can get these for 3.49 USD:
    http://brickset.com/sets/30229-1/Repair-Lift
    http://brickset.com/sets/30313-1/Garbage-Truck

    Then why am I paying 3.99 USD for a pack of CMF- one figure and an accessory? A figure that is often badly manufactured as well and a package that can also be missing parts, which LEGO CS apparently cannot replace if the part is missing?

    I think another run of Simpsons figures will further depress the CMF line especially if it removes another series from being done.
    If LEGO is smart, they drop these to at least 3.49 USD, if not 3.25 USD a pack.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,027

    Just thinking out loud here, but I find it interesting that the past couple waves of Series Lego Collectible Minifigures have had to be discounted. Ironically, the past couple of waves were (in this order) The Simpsons and Series 12 CMFs...both which were priced at $3.99 each (in USA).

    On average TLG may be making more profit than they did with the prices at $2.99 each, but I think they are killing off the CMF theme in the process (at least based on the numbers still sitting on shelves at our local Target). It will be interesting to see if Series 13 follows suit. Personally, I haven't purchased a single Series 13 CMF and won't have my feelings hurt if I miss out completely.

    Note: I am including the Simpsons in with the Series CMFs due to similar packaging and cost.

    Every series has been discounted towards the end of its run, at least near me (UK).
  • legoboy1066legoboy1066 Member Posts: 130
    Does any know if the Death Star will retire this year.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,027

    Does any know if the Death Star will retire this year.

    Probably. Although that has been the answer for the past few years.
    richl
  • mathewmathew Member Posts: 2,096
    Yep. CMF are definitely not selling as well after they jacked up the price.

    A few weeks ago I returned a CMF 12 to the Lego Store. My youngest son had just picked it out and because the store was so crazy busy I didn't have a chance to smoosh the package for its contents. Anyway, during lunch in the food court I smooshed and decided that the figure was the King and that we really didn't need him. At $2.99, I would have just kept it. But, at $4, not worth it. Returned it to the Lego store. Goofy manager I guess thought I had ripped open the bag as he inspected it like a TSA agent. Nope. I just didn't want it. Another reason to get out of this overpriced and overproduced hobby.
  • doriansdaddoriansdad CTCMember Posts: 1,337

    Does any know if the Death Star will retire this year.

    I heard it got bumped to 2016 (along with some other hot sellers). Now whether that means last production late 2015 or production all the way thru 2016 I have not heard. Red 5 if you must own SW in 2015. Just make sure you do not pay retail. At that price it is an ugly investment.

    Pitfall69
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,435

    Does any know if the Death Star will retire this year.

    I heard it got bumped to 2016 (along with some other hot sellers). Now whether that means last production late 2015 or production all the way thru 2016 I have not heard. Red 5 if you must own SW in 2015. Just make sure you do not pay retail. At that price it is an ugly investment.

    Could you also tell us what the other hot sellers that may get bumped to 16 are please?
  • legoboy1066legoboy1066 Member Posts: 130
    Thanks for the info.
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    CMFs don't have much of any use. If you are going to sell random figs that only have a purpose of sitting on a shelf, then those figs better be damn cool looking, and IMO I think the cool looking figs to okay figs ratio isn't that great. I have a full set of Simpson's CMFs and would never feel the need to buy any other CMFs unless I saw "enough" figs were worth the partially random picks.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,027
    edited February 2015
    ^ Have you seen selling prices for some CMF?

    They don't just have to stand on a shelf if you have imagination. I use them to inspire small scene MOCs and also as a source for parts for custom figures, and also in the case of warrior types as army builders.
    pharmjodprevereAanchir
  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    No, I don't check CMF prices. I like a few CMFs, maybe like 1-2 out of 16 each time. The randomness is just a turn off for me.
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