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Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133



    @enotoga‌ - Stop.

    Hang in there Sam........don't get flustered. That's how our discussion got started - thin skin, remember. Your probably a bigger boy than you'd like to be, so toughen up and make an effort here. We've got 2 sets that went live on January 1st that are showing sold-out. MFJ thinks its all supply/capacity. I think it's demand. If you're going to take the time to post, add some value.



  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    edited January 2015
    enotoga said:

    [email protected] US shows DO and Slave 1 as 'Out of stock..' at this moment. This is likely more due to lack of supplies than any kind of reseller or investor effect.
    Most new sets tend to have large demand. Couple that with LEGO's inability to keep stocks in place due to increased lines of sets they have to make stock of, and you have a lot of out of stock notices for newer sets too.

    That's interesting. I don't remember ever seeing Palace Cinema or Parisian Restaurant suffering from lack of supplies, at any point in the product life-cycle. Maybe TLG is just not as mad for some sets as they are for others. Do you think the Jumblepants might have a theory?

    Wow, you can change a name around to derive what you perceive as a negative meaning to someone. Y'know you else can do that? an 8 YEAR OLD. So it is good to know you are as smart as an 8 year old. Just makes me pity you all the more.

    As for the talk of stocks. PR and PC also had moments where they ran out right at release, if I recall correctly. To cap it all off LEGO is making more of different sets now than ever before. So it is more likely again a problem of manufacturing capacity than some sort of speculation boom. Ask yourself this, why would speculators buy all of this stock now to only sit on it for 2-3 more years during its production run?
  • goshe7goshe7 Columbus, Ohio, USAMember Posts: 515


    . Ask yourself this, why would speculators buy all of this stock now to only sit on it for 2-3 more years during its production run?

    Speculators new enough to not have a pile of DS or similar lessons, but old enough to be suffering from missing-TH remorse. The running theme in TH threads is buy what you want now since nobody really know the Lego production and retirement schedule.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    There's no way resellers are stocking up on Detective's Office or Slave I's. I don't even think they are stocking up on Palace Cinemas or Parisian Restaurants either. I can see if they are buying up Pet Shop stock, but not any of the above. It doesn't make sense to sit on that much inventory for 2-4 years unless there was a huge sale and we all know that isn't happening in the US at least.
    madforLEGOdougtspharmjodmonkeyhanger
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited January 2015
    MFJ says -
    """As for the talk of stocks. PR and PC also had moments where they ran out right at release, if I recall correctly. To cap it all off LEGO is making more of different sets now than ever before. So it is more likely again a problem of manufacturing capacity than some sort of speculation boom. Ask yourself this, why would speculators buy all of this stock now to only sit on it for 2-3 more years during its production run?"""


    No doubt that the total number of products has increased overall. But let's say that Sam is TLG and he's got limited manufacturing capacity as you say. So why would he shift capacity to stock PC and PR and VW and MINI and TB, etc., while letting DO and Slave I fall into sold out status? Why would he not shift capacity away from those older sets to feed the new releases. We know what his inclination is, but we'd encourage him to dry his peepers and bring the hot products to market. Unless demand was reeking havoc.

    I do understand that there are capacity issues, but I have to believe that increased demand is the real culprit. I think that among Lego investors, very few people try to time EOL. Most people add slow and steady. This includes adding both a Slave I and DO as soon as they are available. Most investors don't mind holding once they get rolling., because most investors are small time.
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,339
    edited January 2015
    enotoga said:

    But let's say that Sam is TLG .


    Oh... I like this example...
    rancorbait
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    samiam391 said:

    enotoga said:

    But let's say that Sam is TLG .
    Oh... I like this example...

    Stop it Samuel!!! Your drool is making my smartphone short out.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    When ordering a DS, TB, or any of the largest sets, what is the prevalence of sets arriving with large pressure creases. I've accepted some minor creases on sets I've purchased over the years, and have only returned one TB which had a major crease. I hate to return an item due to a problem with the box, but when spending $235 on an investment it's important to get a clean box - it affects resale. Anybody else encounter this? All and all, I think Fedex ground in the US does an ok job, but TLG should probably use more packing material.
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    goshe7 said:


    . Ask yourself this, why would speculators buy all of this stock now to only sit on it for 2-3 more years during its production run?

    Speculators new enough to not have a pile of DS or similar lessons, but old enough to be suffering from missing-TH remorse. The running theme in TH threads is buy what you want now since nobody really know the Lego production and retirement schedule.
    But that theory would imply that Pet shop would be more popular than PC or PR though.
    As for why LEGO would 'let' something run out of stock. They likely have production cycles. Make 100 DO, Make 100 Slave 1, Make 100 Tumbler, etc then they have to make 100 PR, 100 Mini, 100 of whatever else etc. All the while selling them. There is no mistake that people tend to buy a set right when it is released so that will impact more than other lines, BUT not at rates of what resellers and speculators would buy IMO. At least I would hazard the guess that is the more logical explanation than a bunch of resellers buying 5-10 or 20-30 of a new set because it just came out. Resellers/speculators are not going to do that, at least the ones that buy large numbers. You are also not going to stop making sets in production at all, then you run out of those too right now. Cannot forget that LEGO has a lot of sets that are new and in demand. You have the Mod, and UCS, but you also have lines like Arctic and the new city sets, you have new Friends sets, new DC sets, heck even the Santa's Workshop set (which I would be buying along with PS in large quantities before buying any newer set) etc etc. All are in demand, all need to be made and they cannot be made all at once.
  • MAGNINOMINISUMBRAMAGNINOMINISUMBRA Member Posts: 993
    ^ I have a feeling that the Minecraft range has a lot to be responsible for here. Numerous new elements and large production runs on 'standard' bricks in new (or not produced in so long or in such quantity that there would be a back log) colours... And all pushed to market for pre Christmas release with a relatively short 'lead time'.
  • BastaBasta Australia Member Posts: 1,259
    I blame a combination of The Lego Movie & the TLG running at 100% production capacity. Lego is just more popular today then it was a year ago. More people have been waiting for the new 2015 sets to hit stores then there was last year with 2014 sets. That is why we are seeing a record number of new sets go OOS so quickly.
  • pharmjodpharmjod 1,170 miles to Wall Drug, USAMember Posts: 2,912
    You would be amazed at the apparent number of people on brickpicker that are indeed buying Tumblers and Slave 1s with the sole purpose of flipping them for short term gain. There are people perfectly happy to spend $200 to make $10-$20 (maybe) with all the hassle that goes into it. No thanks.
  • bluedragonbluedragon United StatesMember Posts: 496
    There are also the large part resellers on BO and BL that buy a good amount of new sets to part out and sell their unique/desirable new parts with a good mark up. Not sure if that affects demand significantly but may play a role.
    VaderX
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,998
    Dougout said:

    Brits are too sophisticated to have thin skin. They have fancy tea parties.....and crumpets!!

    Yep, PG tips and crumpets are really fancy.
    Pitfall69 said:

    There's no way resellers are stocking up on Detective's Office or Slave I's. I don't even think they are stocking up on Palace Cinemas or Parisian Restaurants either. I can see if they are buying up Pet Shop stock, but not any of the above. It doesn't make sense to sit on that much inventory for 2-4 years unless there was a huge sale and we all know that isn't happening in the US at least.

    There is quite a lot of buying of those going on by resellers though, the parter out reseller as opposed to the sealed box reseller.
  • PlellPlell Member Posts: 192
    Basta said:

    I blame a combination of The Lego Movie & the TLG running at 100% production capacity. Lego is just more popular today then it was a year ago. More people have been waiting for the new 2015 sets to hit stores then there was last year with 2014 sets. That is why we are seeing a record number of new sets go OOS so quickly.

    This is pretty much it right here. Demand for 2015 sets was at unprecedented highs. My store did more in sales on New Year's Day than we did on Black Friday, and we were open less than half as long. And considering allocations are planned out 6-9 months in advance, that sort of demand can be difficult to catch back up to.
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    pharmjod said:

    You would be amazed at the apparent number of people on brickpicker that are indeed buying Tumblers and Slave 1s with the sole purpose of flipping them for short term gain. There are people perfectly happy to spend $200 to make $10-$20 (maybe) with all the hassle that goes into it. No thanks.

    CCC said:

    Dougout said:

    Brits are too sophisticated to have thin skin. They have fancy tea parties.....and crumpets!!

    Yep, PG tips and crumpets are really fancy.
    Pitfall69 said:

    There's no way resellers are stocking up on Detective's Office or Slave I's. I don't even think they are stocking up on Palace Cinemas or Parisian Restaurants either. I can see if they are buying up Pet Shop stock, but not any of the above. It doesn't make sense to sit on that much inventory for 2-4 years unless there was a huge sale and we all know that isn't happening in the US at least.

    There is quite a lot of buying of those going on by resellers though, the parter out reseller as opposed to the sealed box reseller.
    Possibly, but I don't think they are "stocking up". Also, it has been said that resellers make up such a small percentage of sales in the Lego world. I don't doubt people are buying them, I just don't think they are buying tons of them and are sitting on them.

  • DougoutDougout Member Posts: 888
    I've never seen the Lego store as packed as it was this past Black Friday. It seems Lego's demand is through the roof lately. They can do a lot to combat this, however.

    They need to reduce the amount of sets they are selling, especially exclusives. The TB needs to go, I suspect it is still selling fairly well considering the amount of times it has gotten restocked. Looking at their site, it appears they discontinued a lot of items, a bunch of sets that were only out about a year like #75078. I think a smaller part of their problem was the sets themselves and how boring they have gotten. #75078 wasn't great, neither was #10240 just because it has been done before.

    I feel like if they had great, quality sets it would direct more traffic towards those and reduce the amount of people that drift towards other stuff because Lego isn't supplying the classics. I believe they are preparing to get ready for the uptick in traffic the new Star Wars movies will cause and they are focusing on producing AWESOME Star Wars sets (including one to replace DS). No more repeat SW, no more CHIMA. At least, that's my prediction.
  • ShibShib UKMember Posts: 5,343
    ^To be fair, battle packs like #75078 really only exist to sell the figures without any of the action figure sellers kicking up a fuss and do really well just off the back of army building. TLG definitely need to manage the amount of themes they are selling at the minute though, I think they are having a hard time as the result of themes outlasting their initial plan - I'm thinking Ninjago here. Seeing as Chima was already under development etc they couldn't not produce it, but the demand for ninjago was high enough to justify bringing it back.
  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    Selling Lego is much like a vortex. It just sucks you in, and won't let go. Even if you're just making a little bit of money, that little bit turns into free product. And so you go deeper into the vortex to get MORE free toys. This can turn out to be great, or not...

  • prevereprevere North of Bellville, East of Heartlake, South of Bricksburg, West of Ninjago City Member Posts: 2,902
    One more thing to add. The #1 response I saw on the "What are your Lego goals this year?" thread was to thin out, reduce, purge unwanted and dusty items.
  • samiam391samiam391 A Log Cabin in KY, United StatesMember Posts: 4,339
    prevere said:

    One more thing to add. The #1 response I saw on the "What are your Lego goals this year?" thread was to thin out, reduce, purge unwanted and dusty items.

    That's what it is every year though and the list of people making this resolution includes me.

    But... Much like weight loss resolutions, that piece of fruitcake stored in the cupboard will win in the end. You can be darned that my willpower probably won't withstand taking a slice at midnight.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited January 2015
    .....and despite the huge increase in Lego popularity, the number of sets and themes, the increased capacity/production demands, there hasn't been a peep from the mainstream media. No Sunday edition stories on Lego hoarding. No get rich quick stories on Lego. Not even a generic human interest story on Lego investing. This is a very lucky reality we get to enjoy for as long as it lasts.

    It's very rare to have an investment asset that is unique, regularly goes EOL, with increasing demand, which is also nearly impossible to profitably counterfeit.

    DougoutFollowsClosely
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 999
    ^ Well said. Now go buy some #10240 while you can :wink:
  • madforLEGOmadforLEGO Chicagoland USMember Posts: 9,804
    TH is now selling around 400-450 USD on eBay. Wonder where that price will be around next Christmas?
  • FollowsCloselyFollowsClosely Member Posts: 999
    TH will be close to CC and GG prices soon. My guess:

    Christmas 2015 - $550 - $650
    Christmas 2016 - $800 - $900

    I would not be surprise if this hit 1K in 2016. It is that under held. I have just 1 TH for every 4 GE.
  • CCCCCC UKMember Posts: 18,998
    enotoga said:

    .....and despite the huge increase in Lego popularity, the number of sets and themes, the increased capacity/production demands, there hasn't been a peep from the mainstream media. No Sunday edition stories on Lego hoarding. No get rich quick stories on Lego. Not even a generic human interest story on Lego investing. This is a very lucky reality we get to enjoy for as long as it lasts.

    I cannot tell, is this a joke?
    Pitfall69
  • cloaked7cloaked7 Member Posts: 1,448
    edited January 2015
    Didn't you hear about the 60 Minutes segment they're going to have about LEGOS? (a joke)
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    edited January 2015
    @enotogaparty, do you think the Lego Investment bubble is about to burst?
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    edited January 2015



    CCC says - "I cannot tell, is this a joke?"
    _____________________________________________________________

    don't stress.....you won't be given more than you can handle

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    cloaked7 said:

    Didn't you hear about the 60 Minutes segment they're going to have about LEGOS? (a joke)

    It will happen at some point. And that will be a "real" red flag of a bubble.
  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133

    ^ Well said. Now go buy some #10240 while you can :wink:

    I've had one on backorder since December - almost 30 days. I'm a little worried it might get cancelled. Maybe I should double-up and order another one.

  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    Didn't want to wait any longer finally pulled the trigger on a town hall before it gets any worse. Was the last one I was waiting for, time for the city building to begin!
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Chubbles said:

    Didn't want to wait any longer finally pulled the trigger on a town hall before it gets any worse. Was the last one I was waiting for, time for the city building to begin!

    How much did that set you back?

  • ChubblesChubbles USAMember Posts: 459
    About 440
    Pitfall69CircleK
  • DadDad UKMember Posts: 815
    edited January 2015
    Pitfall69 said:

    Chubbles said:

    Didn't want to wait any longer finally pulled the trigger on a town hall before it gets any worse. Was the last one I was waiting for, time for the city building to begin!

    How much did that set you back?

    @Pitfall69 I thought about what we were discussing the other day regarding 'rarity' and swopped my 3 x #41999 that I had left for 3 x #10224. When I say 'swopped' I mean I sold my #41999 on a cash deal and had to put a total of £15 towards a cash deal on the #10224. Time will tell if that was the right thing to do. I think it was though!

    FollowsCloselyBrickDancerdougts
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2015
    CCC said:

    Yep, PG tips and crumpets are really fancy.

    Hey...PG Tips are really popular in our home (USA). In fact, there's the occasional tug-of-war over that last bag. Invariably I lose because I keep my fingernails clipped short and I just can't bring myself to punch my wife. ;-)

    On a related note, I've often wondered whether the Brits use the same "formula" to make PG Tips for export as they do for internal consumption? I'm thinking along the lines of what Coke does with their product formula for worldwide distribution. The reason I ask is that I would assume a British version of the PG Tips formula would have a lot more caffeine...which important for my lifestyle.
    Dougout
  • Pitfall69Pitfall69 0 miles to Legoboy's houseMember Posts: 11,410
    Dad said:


    Pitfall69 said:

    Chubbles said:

    Didn't want to wait any longer finally pulled the trigger on a town hall before it gets any worse. Was the last one I was waiting for, time for the city building to begin!

    How much did that set you back?

    @Pitfall69 I thought about what we were discussing the other day regarding 'rarity' and swopped my 3 x #41999 that I had left for 3 x #10224. When I say 'swopped' I mean I sold my #41999 on a cash deal and had to put a total of £15 towards a cash deal on the #10224. Time will tell if that was the right thing to do. I think it was though!

    I had a similar discussion last year about trading #41999 for Hogwarts Castle. My assumption was that Hogwarts Castle was going to keep going up and that #41999 had reached its peak and might actually go down in price. My assumption was correct as Hogwarts Castle is going for $400+ USD and #41999 is going for $20-30 less on Ebay. I wouldn't doubt that HC could be close to $500 USD by Christmas.

    Town Hall has the same thing going for it. I think offloading your #41999's was a good idea. People made fun of me when I suggested buying at UCS Millenium Falcon for $1,900-2,000 USD and selling it for a huge profit down the road. @Renny‌ did just that and proved me right. Had I had the funds, I would have done the same thing. I think he cleared $900+ after fees.

  • enotogaenotoga Member Posts: 133
    That was a smart move. You won't regret it. I was debating a similar approach last night with Bumblejack, who prefers a much more "tame" approach - kinda poochie.

    But you did it right. No guts no glory.
  • hoyatableshoyatables Northern Virginia, USAMember Posts: 868
    enotoga said:




    CCC says - "I cannot tell, is this a joke?"
    _____________________________________________________________

    don't stress.....you won't be given more than you can handle

    Seriously, dude. Knock it off. You may think you are clever, but it just comes off as mean-spirited. This forum, and this thread in particular, has a high tolerance for a sometimes heated debate, but people avoid taking personal shots. Your recent posts over the past twenty-four hours are just full of them.

    You're clearly interested in the hobby and you have plenty to contribute; do it without the snark and let's all move on.

    Thanos75HitchRainstorm26wagnerml2Ronyardougts
  • leego76leego76 Chandlers FordMember Posts: 360
    Or be moved on! Mods took pity on us minutes ago it seems, and I thank them
    Hitch
  • Pate5346Pate5346 Member Posts: 808
    @‌Farmer_John

    Regarding tea It's hard to say If PG tips in the US are the same or different than UK but by my experience I would say tea bought in UK shops is better then 'English Tea' bought in Europe even if they're so called 'English brands'
    When I was in US I was told that tea ( English ) is not a good quality & very popular since Boston tea party

    As you're discussing #10224 would it be viewed as 'wise' to get extra copy at £255 .
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404
    edited January 2015
    @Pate5346‌ - My wonderful wife is addicted to black teas (including her PG Tips). Her aunt married a guy from Britain and they live here in the States, so it's fun when we get together with them. Having tea is almost a religious experience, and we often have PG Tips (not locally purchased, of course). I'm more of a flavored tea drinker, which I'm sure is anathema to someone from Britain. However, I will drink PG Tips (with cream). Nothing like a good cup of tea!

    I actually have a couple copies of the TH #10224. One arrived basically opened from Amazon a couple years ago, so I went ahead and opened the box to make sure all the bags were there (which they were). That's the one my wife and I will build; the other sealed set will likely be sold at some point (unless one of our kids glums onto it.).
  • SuperTrampSuperTramp City 17Member Posts: 1,021
    Yorkshire tea, that's where it's at.
  • RennyRenny USAMember Posts: 1,145
    edited January 2015
    Pitfall69 said:



    Town Hall has the same thing going for it. I think offloading your #41999's was a good idea. People made fun of me when I suggested buying at UCS Millenium Falcon for $1,900-2,000 USD and selling it for a huge profit down the road. @Renny‌ did just that and proved me right. Had I had the funds, I would have done the same thing. I think he cleared $900+ after fees.
    Good memory @Pitfall69‌ :) Yeah, it was just shy of $1k after fees. It was awesome to get that kind of return on one set although I was super nervous about the whole sale, especially with so many crooked folks out there. I wonder if that buyer will sell it in turn? I can't imagine someone actually opening that set at the price he paid.

    Pitfall69
  • cheekymunk3ycheekymunk3y Manchester, UKMember Posts: 108
    Aaargh with all this TH talk, finally just pulled the trigger on ebay! Must have looked at it every day for the past week.
  • cheekymunk3ycheekymunk3y Manchester, UKMember Posts: 108
    What are your thoughts on #10240 - think this will go EOL soon? Used to be able to get from Argos but no longer stocked there and now OOS on [email protected]
  • roxioroxio UKMember Posts: 1,349
    ^£135 now at Argos in store only but is still some stock around
  • cheekymunk3ycheekymunk3y Manchester, UKMember Posts: 108
    Unfortunately not in Manchester.
  • Farmer_JohnFarmer_John USA - 4,035 Miles from 62 West Wallaby St., Wigan, Lancashire, UKMember Posts: 2,404

    What are your thoughts on #10240 - think this will go EOL soon? Used to be able to get from Argos but no longer stocked there and now OOS on [email protected]

    My guess is that it will still be around at least through the May the 4th sale this year, although TLG occasionally likes to EOL sets before a big event related to that set (e.g., Haunted House being ended before Halloween).
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