Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

flyingpig · January 2015

Farmer_John said:

tamamahm said:
^ Here is an article from USA today. While the article calls it Gateway, look at the title... Many think of it as the St. Louis Arch.
I've always heard of it as "The Gateway to the West"...probably because it sounds so dramatic.

In the Wikipedia link below, they entitle it "Gateway Arch" at the top of the page, yet refer throughout as "The Gateway Arch" or "The Arch."

This darn English language can be so confusing. ¿Hay alguien que hable español ?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gateway_Arch

USA Today is a miserable excuse for a newsrag, rightfully condemned to airports and hotels. Even so, their copyeditors should be ashamed. You'll note the local MO news station has the correct name. It is clearly 'the Arch' or the 'the Gateway Arch'.

You'll note that the title of the wikipedia article is not 'The Gateway Arch', because 'The' is not part of its name. Compare with The Citadel or The Hague. Nowhere in the article is it referred to as 'The Gateway Arch' (except when leading a sentence).

'Gateway to the West' is the nickname for the city of St Louis (at least they're continuing to try to sell that name via tourism marketing), referring to the arch by the same name would be needlessly confusing.

JamesJT said:
How many people think the stick in "carrot and stick" is used to beat the donkey?

I should hope most do? The 'carrot and(/or) stick' is an idiom about implied reward/punishment.

http://public.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/carrot.html

CCC · January 2015

flyingpig said:

JamesJT said:
How many people think the stick in "carrot and stick" is used to beat the donkey?
I should hope most do? The 'carrot and(/or) stick' is an idiom about implied reward/punishment.

http://public.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/carrot.html

I guess it is because there are two idioms with similar names - carrot and stick (reward and punishment) and carrot on a stick (offering a reward that can never be achieved).

tamamahm · January 2015

^^ The point is not whether the newspaper is good or bad, but that yes, some people use the term St. Louis Arch, and not everyone refers to it as the Gateway Arch as was initially stated.
In St. Louis, it makes sense that it is just called the Arch, and it makes sense that those outside St. Louis, might specify the city the Arch they are talking about is in. The point is, the term St. Louis Arch is used in the US.

piratemania7 · January 2015

I only picked up one copy of TB - almost exclusively due to the fact that it is one of the "largest" piece count wise official LEGO sets produced. I thought it would be good to have in my collection - is it something that I "must" open and build and potential display? No. I'll see what the aftermarket does and perhaps offload it, but I too would be skeptical of a spike in asking price in the aftermarket.

Farmer_John · January 2015

From a reselling standpoint, my biggest concern regarding the TB is that it's been out so long. The cost has probably kept some of the hoarding down, but it could be had more reasonably on sale a time or two before TLG killed discounts on their exclusive sets.

I do have a personal copy of the set stashed and can't wait to build it when time allows. Like many other AFOLS, I do enjoy the large architectural Lego sets.

SithLord196 · January 2015

Hitch said:

SithLord196 said:
My general hope is it doesn't go up too much in the next 4 months or so, at which point I should be able to afford it.

My next question is, am I better off getting it from Bricklink/Amazon/eBay or waiting for the Lego convention near me that will have vendors?
If box condition is important, wait for the convention. Large heavy boxes like TH tend to get creased during shipment. If low price is priority, invest some time with ebay auctions. You'll generally get a lower price with an auction, than a buy it now. Amazon tends to be a bit over-priced, where there's the (false) belief that it's safer to shop there. I haven't bought much at bricklink, but a big ticket purchase, like TH, seems a little risky to me. Not sure what kind of buyer protection you get at bricklink. These are all just generalizations and opinions; it will be time well-spent for you to look at all your options when ready to purchase.

I would expect the convention to be way over-priced. I often see outrageous prices at those type events. Don't appear eager. The sellers will likely be savvy, and very good at negotiating in a way to get top dollar out of you. You need to know as much about the going prices as they do, and be prepared to negotiate, and be prepared to tell them, "a good condition one just sold for X at Ebay", that kind of thing, and you can prove your claims with your cell phone. Better yet, you tell them the price range for recently completed auctions for the item and be prepared to make an offer in the low to mid range. They will counter your offer, of course. Don't be afraid to politely decline their best offer, walk off and come back later. Be willing to leave without it, if you're determined to get a good deal, and they will sense that. Like at a yard sale, they'll likely be more motivated near closing time.

Thanks for the insight. Chances are I'll monitor price and if I see it start to creep up I can probably get one before the April convention.

Fair point about convention prices being a lot higher. I have seen that myself, although I have also seen convention prices be lower than the current going rate. I just wasn't sure how Lego conventions were when it comes to price because I have not yet attended one.

madforLEGO · January 2015

Pitfall69 said:
My original point (way back) was that Tower Bridge wouldn't be that big of a hit on the Aftermarket, at least here in the states. Mainly because it has been out so long, has been on sale numerous times and most Americans don't even know what it is properly called. Americans probably identify more with the Clock Tower/Big Ben than Tower Bridge.

Then, others have said that people in Great Britain call it "London Bridge" and that got me to thinking about American landmarks and if people here call any of them something else.

While TB has been out a while and on sale, I'm not sure I agree the idea of people in the US not wanting/buying it. If people like sets like Taj Mahal and Eiffel tower, which went up in price, even though those were also on clearance a lot, then same could be said for TB.
Will it skyrocket? No, but it likely will go up, especially those that like the architecture sets I think.

Farmer_John · January 2015

CupIsHalfEmpty said:
It's interesting to note the available quantities on bricklink:

FB 997
GE 1273
TH 204

I think that goes to show that TH was not stockpiled like FB and GE.

I think this comment by @CupIsHalfEmpty says it all regarding the TH.

To elaborate on his/her comment, here are the current globally available numbers for "new" modular sets for sale on BrickLink that are no longer available from TLG:

#10182 CC - 42 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $973
#10185 GG - 50 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $933
#10197 FB - 169 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $352
#10211 GE - 229 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $277
#10224 TH - 99 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $498

My independent search results appear to validate the information that was posted by @CupIsHalfEmpty. Note: My BL search criteria was only for new and complete sets using the TLG set number.

Now doing a quick analysis of the average asking price vs. the availability on BL of the EOL'd modulars seems to indicate that the current TH asking price may even be low (contrary to what other in the forum are saying).

A perfectly linear relationship between the average asking price and availability would be given by the thin black line shown in the graph. The blue line is the real data taken from BL, and appears to show a somewhat linear relationship between average asking price and availability. If this relationship is truly linear, then the TH price should be closer to $675 due to its lower availability.

A couple arguments against this graph are that 1) the TH is a LOT less desirable than the other modular sets, or 2) all the TH sets are being sold through other venues. The first alternative is subjective, and we can argue that point all day long. If the second alternative assumes there is an equal percentage distribution of sales on the other venues, the original conclusions would still be sound.

The point here is that the current TH prices may not be a temporary anomaly. Now if more TH sets become available then the asking price may stop rising; however, a lot more sets will have to come available to force it below the current asking prices.

Just a bit of fun with the data...

SithLord196 · January 2015

Looks like I should jump on Grand Emporium while I have the chance.

What's sad is I'm contemplating buying the $600 lot I found on eBay that has the Grand Emporium and Fire Brigade.

piratemania7 · January 2015

SithLord196 said:
Looks like I should jump on Grand Emporium while I have the chance.

What's sad is I'm contemplating buying the $600 lot I found on eBay that has the Grand Emporium and Fire Brigade.

Is that all thats in the lot or are there other items/sets?

SithLord196 · January 2015

piratemania7 said:

SithLord196 said:
Looks like I should jump on Grand Emporium while I have the chance.

What's sad is I'm contemplating buying the $600 lot I found on eBay that has the Grand Emporium and Fire Brigade.
Is that all thats in the lot or are there other items/sets?

They were the only two sets in the lot, and the price is $625. After doing some more looking, that's really not the best way to go about it. It would be convenient but I'm overpaying then.

From what I can tell Fire Brigade is around $320 at its cheapest while Grand Emporium is $250. So theoretically, the lot should be about $570.

Sethro3 · January 2015

Is that with shipping though? Big boxes like that would cost a bit to shop I bet...

With that said, try to bricklink them. You'll find it is probably just as cheap to find a complete sealed set.

SithLord196 · January 2015

It was free shipping, but most of the auctions for larger sets like these are it seems.

Not a huge deal. Would I like those two sets? Yes.

Is my life going to end without them? I would say no.

I feel like $250 is a good price for Grand Emporium, and if I can manage to get it at that price sometime in the next few months, I'd be happy, but if not oh well.

Pitfall69 · January 2015

^So, you are hoping it will stay around $250 for the next few months? You might get someone who is desperate and will unload it for that. I feel that once the "quick flippers" are gone, the price will go up. Many of the $250 GE's are with shipping added so it is more like $265-270 USD when it is all said and done. The waiting game really only works for sets at have reached their peak.

doriansdad · January 2015

Farmer_John said:

Just a bit of fun with the data...

Nice work John!

For even more data fun try incorporating the new part out value of the sets. If there is too much divergence then folks will come in and bricklink sets to sell at market price and the gap should close pretty rapidly. That being said the part out price is not static either and the price of TH pieces are trending steeply upwards as well.

Pitfall69 · January 2015

@Farmer_John‌ I'm interested as to why CC's average list price is that low? What I don't like about these type of statistics is that it doesn't everything into consideration. People list sets as new, but the box is mangled or there us no box, but all the parts are still "sealed". I usually give a small discount if the box is not up to par. I don't expect you to go through all 42 CC listings, but I'm sure there are some problems in the listings. Maybe a small blurb that the box is crushed or something like that.

CupIsHalfEmpty · January 2015

Farmer_John said:

CupIsHalfEmpty said:
It's interesting to note the available quantities on bricklink:

FB 997
GE 1273
TH 204

I think that goes to show that TH was not stockpiled like FB and GE.
I think this comment by @CupIsHalfEmpty says it all regarding the TH.

To elaborate on his/her comment, here are the current globally available numbers for "new" modular sets for sale on BrickLink that are no longer available from TLG:

#10182 CC - 42 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $973
#10185 GG - 50 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $933
#10197 FB - 169 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $352
#10211 GE - 229 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $277
#10224 TH - 99 currently available, Avg Listed Price = $498

My independent search results appear to validate the information that was posted by @CupIsHalfEmpty. Note: My BL search criteria was only for new and complete sets using the TLG set number.

Thank you for running the data.

Your quantities available appear slightly lower than I would expect. Did you use the number of "Total lots" available instead of "Total Qty" ?

For "total Qty" of new complete I get:

#10182 CC - 50 currently available
#10185 GG - 76 currently available,
#10197 FB - 980 currently available,
#10211 GE - 1278 currently available,
#10224 TH - 213 currently available,

Which would push town hall even higher on your chart....

Pitfall69 · January 2015

Ok. I just took a peak at Bricklink. I did a search for US only, as the shipping would be reasonable. The cheapest listing, new/sealed was $1,499 USD. This doesn't include shipping obviously and buyer pays for insurance. Also, the box isn't perfect. This is why I don't use the average selling price to list my items.

madforLEGO · January 2015

'Listed for', or 'selling for'? Big difference IMO.

Pitfall69 · January 2015

madforLEGO said:
'Listed for', or 'selling for'? Big difference IMO.

You are absolutely correct!!! The problem is that you cannot go back and check what actually sold on Bricklink like you can on Ebay.

Basta · January 2015

Pitfall69 said:

madforLEGO said:
'Listed for', or 'selling for'? Big difference IMO.
You are absolutely correct!!! The problem is that you cannot go back and check what actually sold on Bricklink like you can on Ebay.

Well you can see what prices items have sold for over the last 6 months, you just cant see the listing to see the details and condition.

I was actually looking at something that relates to this morning. One example where the average sale price is misrepresented is with a lot of the trains. Take #3677 Red Cargo Train. Average sale price is listed at $172AUD, but this includes the sales of just the engines and carriages. Remove those ($14-$40 dollar sales) and the average jumps to around $220AUD.

Pitfall69 · January 2015

^Yes, that is what I meant. You cannot see the listing of the item that sold.

Pitfall69 · January 2015

If anyone manages to buy a sealed mint/near mint Cafe Corner for $973 USD, please, take a picture of the listing and your wonderful box because I will not believe it ;)

cloaked7 · January 2015

Personally, I think the 2 main considerations that affect modular (or pretty much any LEGO set) after market price is the number that were made and how long they were available. Popularity, price, build experience, attractiveness, uniqueness matter - just not as much. I think the Town Hall is climbing faster in after market price because there aren't as many in supply and not as many people bought the set when it was available. Most people don't easily spend $150-200 on a LEGO set. And, it is made even more difficult if there are other sets you want more and a lesser wanted set isn't available for as long as you thought it would be.

If there was 1 thing I would like to know ahead of time it would be - how many of a set would be made. If I know that 200,000 Town Halls and 800,000 Pet Shops are going to be made, I am going to buy all the Town Halls I can and skip Pet Shops. Also, what if you knew the Town Hall will be available for 18 mths and the Pet Shop for 42 mths?

Would you buy any Death Stars if you knew the set would be available for 5 years? I wouldn't.

Farmer_John · January 2015

Pitfall69 said:
What I don't like about these type of statistics is that it doesn't everything into consideration.

So true...so true!

The analysis I did was really very basic and there is a lot more to modeling than just comparing the current average asking price vs. the number available. I just kind of took the "all things being equal" approach and went from there. Now if we were talking about investing in stocks, I would be a bit more thorough in my analysis... :-)

I believe a key driver behind its appreciation is the fact that EOL'd so suddenly, so there's less supply available. I don't think the TH that overpriced where it's at today, and I wouldn't risk waiting for its price to significantly drop if I was interested in a copy. But that's just me...

Pitfall69 · January 2015

We take things like this seriously. Some of us don't care for your apparent lack of research. You should double your efforts next time :)

I kiiiid I kiiiid.

Farmer_John · January 2015

Darth @Pitfall69: Perhaps I can find new ways to motivate you.
@Farmer_John: We shall double our efforts!
Darth @Pitfall69: I hope so, @Farmer_John, for your sake. The other forum members are not as forgiving as I am!

;-)

Pitfall69 · January 2015

Ahhhhh. So, you caught that ;)

flyingpig · January 2015

tamamahm said:
^^ The point is not whether the newspaper is good or bad, but that yes, some people use the term St. Louis Arch, and not everyone refers to it as the Gateway Arch as was initially stated.
In St. Louis, it makes sense that it is just called the Arch, and it makes sense that those outside St. Louis, might specify the city the Arch they are talking about is in. The point is, the term St. Louis Arch is used in the US.

CCC said:

flyingpig said:

Beating a dead horse here, as discussion has moved on (to equally tangential topics), but the term the St Louis Arch is dumb and wrong, and no actual new article ever uses that name. Idiot news editors blindly taking articles from the AP or wire services and making up headlines occasionally screw up. I guess some people are dumb and use the wrong name, but from media and official usage the name is clearly the Gateway Arch.

JamesJT said:
How many people think the stick in "carrot and stick" is used to beat the donkey?
I should hope most do? The 'carrot and(/or) stick' is an idiom about implied reward/punishment.

http://public.wsu.edu/~brians/errors/carrot.html
I guess it is because there are two idioms with similar names - carrot and stick (reward and punishment) and carrot on a stick (offering a reward that can never be achieved).

Again, people are misinformed morons. The original idiom is the carrot or the stick, belief that the correct form is carrot on a stick is too clever by half. And also dead wrong. The carrot on a stick idiom appeared as a result of the popularity of the carrot or stick idiom, not the other way around.

CCC · January 2015

What does it matter which came first? There are two that are fairly commonly used, with quite different meanings. Knowing which one the speaker means is important, as both are used.

The original meaning of nice is idiot, from the latin nescire. Does that mean the original one is the correct meaning, or is the correct meaning the one that is used most commonly now?

Farmer_John · January 2015

Pitfall69 said:
Ahhhhh. So, you caught that ;)

I could probably quote the entire movie with all the Star Wars fanatics in this house. At least I'll get some fresh material to memorize in about 11 months...lucky me! :-)

SithLord196 · January 2015

Pitfall69 said:
^So, you are hoping it will stay around $250 for the next few months? You might get someone who is desperate and will unload it for that. I feel that once the "quick flippers" are gone, the price will go up. Many of the $250 GE's are with shipping added so it is more like $265-270 USD when it is all said and done. The waiting game really only works for sets at have reached their peak.

I would love to get it, but the waiting game has to be played. Student loans and my car payment are a little more important, and I'm really not that keen on using a credit card more than I absolutely have to.

TheLoneTensor · January 2015

Farmer_John said:
Darth @Pitfall69: Perhaps I can find new ways to motivate you.
@Farmer_John: We shall double our efforts!
Darth @Pitfall69: I hope so, @Farmer_John, for your sake. The other forum members are not as forgiving as I am!

;-)

@Pitfall69: Careful you idiot! I said selling price, not MSRP!
@madforLEGO: Sorry sir! I'm doing my best!
@Pitfall69: Who made that man a reseller?
@Farmer_John: I did sir. He's my cousin.
@Pitfall69: Who is he?
@Farmer_John: He's a Reseller sir.
@Pitfall69: I know that! What's his name?
@Farmer_John: That is his name sir. Reseller, Major Reseller!
@Pitfall69: And his cousin?
@Farmer_John: He's a Reseller too sir. Gunner's mate First Class Philip Reseller!
@Pitfall69: How many resellers do we have on this forum, anyway?
@Entire Forum: Yo!
@Pitfall69: I knew it. I'm surrounded by resellers!

Pitfall69 · January 2015

I find it hilarious that the miserable excuse of a newsrag brought us the first pictures of the Scooby Doo Mystery Machine; )

Farmer_John · January 2015

It appears that TLG added several sets to their sale at the S@H site....FYI.

enotoga · January 2015

Right now Micro World - The End is available on US lego.com for $20

ReesesPieces · January 2015

It finally seems like the delorean has come to the end of its life. What do you think the future of this set will be like?

Chubbles · January 2015

Love the idea of the delorean set far more than the actual set but I'm sure it will go up

Pitfall69 · January 2015

^Well, it has already gone up, but how much will it be by Christmas?

LegoTT · January 2015

Amazon is still getting stock every other day or so for a limited amount of time. Maybe that'll be my first duplicate set!

enotoga · January 2015

cloaked7 said:
Personally, I think the 2 main considerations that affect modular (or pretty much any LEGO set) after market price is the number that were made and how long they were available.

Good points. I read an interesting article on coin collecting /investing entitled "Size Matters". They proved that the size of a coin had a major impact on its value. The point was that a rare dime might be worth less than a more common silver dollar simply because of the size of the coin. Town Hall and Tower Bridge are good examples of sets that are just large and expensive enough to push themselves into a different class. That extra $50-$85 dollar and shear size of the structure has an impact.....and it could be a big one.

TheLoneTensor · January 2015

Chubbles said:
Love the idea of the delorean set far more than the actual set but I'm sure it will go up

Total derail here, but this was bugging me recently upon watching the movie. So how did Doc get the car into the van when Marty first saw the Delorean? There's no way the doors could open while it was in the van. So, did Doc drive the van to the Twin Pines mall, remotely back out the car, get into the car, drive it back into the van, close the van door through some remote mechanism, wait for Marty to arrive, then back it out all for a cool frosty entrance effect?

I know, I know, a time-travel movie and this is what I focus on.

JamesJT · January 2015

Doc does have rc. He sends Einstein forward 1 minute before Marty jumps in.

cloaked7 · January 2015

enotoga said:

cloaked7 said:
Personally, I think the 2 main considerations that affect modular (or pretty much any LEGO set) after market price is the number that were made and how long they were available.
Good points. I read an interesting article on coin collecting /investing entitled "Size Matters". They proved that the size of a coin had a major impact on its value. The point was that a rare dime might be worth less than a more common silver dollar simply because of the size of the coin. Town Hall and Tower Bridge are good examples of sets that are just large and expensive enough to push themselves into a different class. That extra $50-$85 dollar and shear size of the structure has an impact.....and it could be a big one.

Yup. Excellent point. The size/cost of a set probably plays a big part in it too. I know I often initially pass on an expensive set simply due to the price. I think - "I'll get it later on sale." or "I'll save up for it." or "I'll wait for double points or a nice freebie." Where with a $20-$30-$50 set I'll just get it then.

Then, if I wait on buying the expensive set I maybe wait too long. Or, another pricey set comes along and I can't afford both. Next thing I know, one of the sets is retired. And, if it retires sooner, rather than later, the chances of me getting the set before it retires go down. That is exactly what happened with me on the Town Hall. I have all of the modulars except for Town Hall. And, ironically, even have several modular sets that came out AFTER Town Hall. (I simply forgot I didn't have the Town Hall.) Town Hall was pricey and didn't hang around very long, relative to other modulars. Now, the price has jumped so high I may simply pass on it. I mean, do I have to have EVERY modular? At some point enough is enough.

Pitfall69 · January 2015

^No, you don't have to have every Modular, but at some point you will have someone look at your collection and say: "Very nice collection. Awesome...wait...where's Town Hall? You don't have Town Hall?" Much like my nephew did to me a couple of years ago, although I was missing Market Street. Kinda takes the wind out of your sails (pride).

Chubbles · January 2015

^ that's like a punch in the gut

Pitfall69 · January 2015

^That's what I was saying. I had the MS, but sold it because I didn't like it and didn't think it was an "official" Modular. Now, I wish I had it for completeness, but I couldn't pass up on $1,000 for a $90 set.

Dougout · January 2015

For a rather small set, the DeLorean is one of my absolute favorites. I think the build is very fun and the end product, although it may not impress every fan boy, does resemble the actual vehicle VERY well. Plus, the functionality of the flip-up wheels and the bricks thrown in for display add a ton of playability. Marty also gets a skateboard to boot!!

Farmer_John · January 2015

The duration of availability (number of days from lowest to highest) for the retired Modulars in the USA is as follows:

1) Cafe Corner - available for 774 days
2) Town Hall - available for 945 days or 22% longer than the CC
3) Green Grocier - available for 978 days or 26% longer than the CC
4) Fire Brigade - available for 1542 days or 99% longer than the CC
5) Grand Emporium - available for 1677 days or 117% longer than the CC.

Interestingly enough, the TH was available for a shorter time than the GG. More interesting (to me anyway) is that the GE was available longer than the FB. I still remember all the chatter on this thread regarding people expecting the FB to EOL at any time, yet the FB was the proverbial Energizer Bunny. Ironically there was much less chatter regarding the GE, which was on the shelf roughly 8% longer than the FB (and was the longest running modular to date).

My takeaways:

The fact that the TH was abruptly EOL'd while the other sets were more "stale" at the time of their retirement should bode will for the TH's long-term prospects. (By stale, I mean the other sets had been available to the point that nobody was surprised when they were EOL'd...not that they were bad sets). Additionally the TH had a higher RRP, so I'm sure that translated into lower sales (and thus lower availability). If I was a betting man, I would expect the TH to be in the $750-$1000 range by the end of this year.

The GE was out for much longer than the TH (by almost 2X) and priced $50 lower, so it should be the most available modular set (along with the FB). If I was a betting man, I would expect the GE to be the worst post-EOL performer of the retired modulars (although I do like the set personally).

Note: I used the USA data, but would expect similar performance worldwide...

Pitfall69 · January 2015

I'm curious how the PS will do after retirement? I really don't think you can compare the FB, GE and PS with each other. FB is arguably the most popular of the 3 and was available for a shorter period of time than the GE. Throw in that it came out earlier than GE and PS and that more and more people are getting into Modulars. The GE is a corner building and PS are two separate buildings (which adds to its popularity).

Predictions on Discontinuing Sets and their Secondary Market Value

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